Kuzul

Here we have the Kansas City Royals‘ 2014 starting rotation: James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen. It’s not particularly pretty, but I’ll go to battle with it. Kansas City has a great chance to end a 29-year playoff drought this year and those five, for better or worse, are a crucial part of that chance.

In the long term, however, much more is in flux.

This article looks to the future and scrutinizes prospects. Naturally, it will include a lot of speculation and projection. So let’s start on solid ground. Let’s start with what we know.

Note: Fielding independent pitching (FIP) is an advanced pitching statistic that measures a pitcher’s performance on an ERA scale while controlling for the performance of his defense. It has much better predictive power than ERA because it’s able to isolate the performance of the pitcher. It will be used occasionally throughout this article.

James Shields is a dominant, right-handed workhorse. He has amassed 200-plus innings pitched in each of the past three seasons. This is no small feat—only 35 other starters hit 200 IP in 2013.

More important is his effectiveness over those past three seasons. In that time, he posted a 3.45 FIP, far better than the league average for starters, which fell right around 4.03. In 2013, his first year with the Royals, he led the entire league in quality starts with 27. That total was matched only by NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.

Viewed through a more traditional lens, Shields’ 2013 season becomes even more impressive—his 3.15 ERA was eighth-best among starters in the American League and sixth-best among those who pitched more than 200 innings. 

But it’s quite probable that the 2014 season will be his last in Kansas City. With a weak crop of starting pitchers headed for free agency after the season and Shields’ remarkably consistent excellence, it’s likely that a team with much deeper pockets than the Royals will sign him to a nine-figure contract.

Even if KC were to offer him a long-term deal, it’s unlikely that it could offer him a per-year salary much higher than his current one ($13.5 million), especially given the big raises that Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are in line for in 2015. The duo will make a combined $18 million in 2014; that figure jumps to $25 million in 2015. 

We also know that Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas nearly epitomize what it is to be league average. But there is value in that, especially if they’re able to stay healthy and be average all season. If Danny Duffy—who I’ll get to later—is recalled from Triple-A, Chen will likely be the first man out of the rotation.

As fans, we have to hope that the organization’s decision to sign Vargas to a four-year, $32 million contract will be vindicated. As fans, we have to hope that luck and the Royals’ defensive performance will repeat themselves and mask Chen’s true pitching ability once again, because his advanced numbers for 2013 look much uglier than the pristine 3.27 ERA that he posted.

As fans, we have to hope that Guthrie can eat innings with reasonable efficiency and justify his spot in the rotation.

As realists, we have to recognize how unlikely it is that things will go so smoothly for that trio. We have to realize that all three of them will probably disappoint the team multiple times during 2014. But only Vargas is signed past 2015; luckily, they don’t factor too heavily into the future of the rotation. 

The Future: Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Kyle Zimmer, Sean Manaea and Miguel Almonte

We hope that these five will comprise the Royals’ rotation of the future. We could see three or four and will certainly see at least two of them pitch in Kansas City this year. So let’s get to know them and the reasons why they should make us hopeful about the future of the pitching staff.

After a lights-out spring, Yordano Ventura, a right-handed fireballer with a slight 5’11” frame, has been compared to another diminutive Dominican: Pedro Martinez. While it’s ludicrous to start comparing him to the three-time Cy Young Award winner at this stage of his career, it’s easy to be excited about a fastball that regularly climbs into triple digits.

Ventura complements his headline pitch with a plus-potential curveball, decent changeup and improving, if inconsistent, command. The good news is that he won’t be 23 years old until June and ostensibly still has room to grow.

In four minor league seasons (2010-2013), he has never posted a season FIP above 3.50. In 2013, before being called up to make a few starts for the Royals in September, he turned in his best minor league season to date. Over 57.2 IP at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, he put up a 2.56 FIP and struck out 11.55 batters per nine innings pitched. In 77.0 innings at Triple-A Omaha, those numbers were 3.17 and 9.47, respectively.

Some still think that the hard-throwing righty is destined for the bullpen, but if he can continue to develop his curveball and his command and prove that he’s able to stick in a major league rotation for a full season, the future looks bright. 

In June 2012, after making six fairly average starts for Kansas City, Danny Duffy‘s elbow popped; he needed Tommy John surgery. That was a big setback indeed. Nevertheless, he eventually made his way back to the majors in 2013. After 70 successful rehab innings at Double- and Triple-A, he would return to Kansas City for five starts…five wildly inconsistent, out-of-control starts.

He failed to average five innings pitched in those five outings and struggled with his command to the tune of 5.18 BB/9. To make the case that these were actually successful starts after all, you could point to his 1.85 ERA. However, his 3.09 FIP and 4.60 xFIP (which accounts for how many of a pitcher’s fly balls should have been home runs) look much grimmer, despite the fact that the latter is probably an overstatement, given the rate at which Kauffman Stadium suppresses homers.

He then failed to make enough of an impression this spring to stick in Kansas City, which may actually be for the better, given that Ventura’s emergence would have relegated him to the bullpen. 

He’ll begin the season in Omaha as a starter with a lot to prove. Time and time again, he has expressed how much he loves the organization and how hard he’s willing to work to start at the highest level. Hopefully he’ll show his impressive stuff in Omaha once again and remind Kansas City fans why they fell in love with him in the first place.

Since he is the last vestige of a once-vaunted quintet of pitching prospects in the system, fans are desperate for him to prove to be an effective major leaguer. Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi have been lost via trade, John Lamb to injury and Chris Dwyer to irrelevance.

Under club control for this year and four more, Duffy could contribute a lot as a back-of-the-rotation regular. Either in the bullpen or the rotation, we’ll almost certainly see him back in Kansas City this season. Hopefully he returns with tighter command and the same ability that’s always been there.

Kyle Zimmer, picked fifth by the Royals in the 2012 MLB draft, immediately elicited hope from fans. The big righty looked like he was on the fast track to the majors after dominating the low minors. The beginning of 2013, however, told a different story.

Over his first 12 starts at Single-A-plus Wilmington, he posted an atrocious 6.32 ERA. People began to worry that he might not fulfill his massive potential after all.

But from that point forward, with a slightly altered delivery and improved command, he went on a tear. In his final 10 starts of 2013, in Single-A-plus and Double-A ball, his ERA dropped to 2.43. Belief in Zimmer was restored. Over those same 10 starts, he struck out 11.8 batters per nine innings. The stuff was tremendous, the command was there, and even though his advanced numbers were a just a little bit less staggering, it once again looked like a 2014 call-up was possible. 

However, his season came to an end prematurely after a case of biceps tendonitis struck him in mid-August. It’s a minor setback, but a troublesome one nonetheless, given the encouraging string of starts that he was putting together. 

This year, he will start the season at Northwestern Arkansas, and fans and team executives are already thinking that he may make his first major league appearance later this season. If he looks as dominant as he did toward the end of last season, that’s not unreasonable. With a great arm angle on his delivery, a powerful fastball and a 12-6 curveball full of potential, Zimmer’s ceiling is at the top of Kansas City’s rotation. The sooner he can get there, the better.

With the eighth pick in the 2013 MLB draft, the Royals selected Hunter Dozier, a shortstop prospect who was not thought of particularly highly by most who track prospects.

What we didn’t know at the time of that pick was general manager Dayton Moore‘s ultimate plan: With the 34th overall pick, Kansas City selected Sean Manaea—a pitcher once considered by many to be a solid top-five pick.

Manaea just one summer earlier had dominated the Cape Cod League, posting a 1.21 ERA and striking out 85 batters while walking just seven in 51.2 innings pitched. With that, the 6’5″ lefty established himself as a top prospect.

But after tearing the acetabular labrum in his left hip, his stock fell to the point that Moore was able to make one of the wisest decisions of his tenure. Because the lesser Dozier could be given a relatively small signing bonus, the money was there to sign Manaea. 

Early reports out of camp have been positive—the organization is pleased with Manaea’s progress, according to The Kansas City Star. With his big, strong frame and dazzling stuff, Royals fans should begin to salivate if the positive reports keep coming in. If he fulfills his potential, he’ll be a dominant, front-line lefty.

The good news is that his floor isn’t all that low, provided that he comes back healthy. It’s hard to imagine him ending up as anything less than a productive, middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. If you don’t believe me, just ask Jason Parks, whose scouting report on Manaea, published a few weeks ago, read, in his words, “like pure smut.”

Miguel Almonte has never been the Royals’ sexiest prospect. With a strong fastball and plus changeup, Almonte, signed out of the Dominican Republic a few years ago, projects optimistically as a No. 3 starter and more realistically as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter or excellent reliever.

It’s difficult to talk extensively about his numbers, because he’s only spent one year in Single-A ball. It was, however, a very productive season. In 130.2 innings last season, he turned in a 2.76 FIP, struck out 132 and walked just 36 batters. 

Granted, Single-A isn’t the majors. And Almonte is still several steps away. If he continues on his current trajectory though, we could see him in the majors in mid-to-late 2015. He’ll be just 21 years old next week, and while he doesn’t have the highest ceiling of the system’s pitching prospects, he could start contributing at a very young age. 

And there you have it: five men whom Royals fans and management hope will carry the pitching torch into the future. 

2014 is a big year for Kansas City; the playoffs are within grasp for the first time in nearly three decades.

The rotation is led by Shields, who will almost certainly be gone after the season. Ventura steps into the rotation this year with “phenom” status. Of the five young pitchers mentioned, he’s likely to have the most immediate impact. Duffy and Zimmer could both contribute at some point during the year. Manaea and Almonte are more likely to make an impact in 2015 and beyond. 

Prospects will break your heart—I know that as well as the next baseball observer. It’s unlikely that all five of them will hit. But it’s April, a time for hope. The Royals have five impressive young starters, and if even two or three of them fulfill their potential, the future looks bright for Kansas City’s rotation. 

Note: Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.

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Per MLB.com‘s Alden Gonzalez, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout signed a six-year, $144.5 million contract Friday, marking the second-largest deal in MLB history for a player with less than three years of service time, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

That Trout’s contract is only the second-largest such deal may come as a surprise, but his six-year pact easily outweighs Buster Posey’s nine-year, $167 million contract in terms of average annual value.

Trout’s new contract—which runs from 2015-20—pays him approximately $24.08 million per season, good for the ninth-largest average salary in all of baseball, per ESPN.com. Posey’s contract averages a mere $18.56 million, falling $5.52 million short of Trout’s.

Furthermore, Trout can become a free agent when he’s 29 years old, while Posey won’t be able to do the same until he’s either 34 or 35, depending on whether the Giants ultimately exercise the catcher’s team option for 2022.

Trout’s contract is a nice bargain for the Angels, but we can’t forget that the team bought out three of his arbitration years and only three years of free agency.

Comparing Trout’s contract to the 10-year, $292 million deal recently signed by Miguel Cabrera is apples-to-oranges, and there’s little doubt that Trout would annihilate Cabrera’s contract if the 22-year-old was allowed to hit free agency today.

His deal may not be as impressive as Cabrera’s on paper, but it still proves that Trout is the most valued commodity in the game.

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Daisuke Matsuzaka will not be the fifth starter for the New York Mets to start the 2014 season after losing the spring training battle to Jenrry Mejia.

Dice-K will instead take a trip to Triple-A for the time being, as reported by SportsCenter:

Matsuzaka had a strong spring with a 1-1 record, eight earned runs allowed, 25 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA. He had an especially strong showing Saturday before his demotion was announced, striking out eight and not allowing a base on balls.

The demotion comes as a surprise, especially after Mets manager Terry Collins told the media earlier in the week that Dice-K had an edge over Mejia thanks to his experience, via ESPN’s Adam Rubin.

“It certainly gives him an edge, because he’s done it before, and he’s done it a lot. But certainly, with the way Jenrry threw yesterday, he’s got to be in that mix,” Collins told Rubin.

Then again, the Mets paid $100,000 to retain Dice-K’s rights for flexibility, as Rubin notes:

As Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News suggests, Matsuzaka may still wind up with the team as an insurance policy should Jon Niese not be ready to go against the Cincinnati Reds in New York’s homestand finale April 6.

Either way, fans will likely see Dice-K on the mound sooner rather than later. As far as insurance policies go, the Mets could do much worse.

For now, Dice-K will make a splash in Triple-A play. Based on New York’s wise investment, don’t expect it to last long.

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Great player. Bad move. Terrible contract.

“Why?” That was my first thought when it was first reported by CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that the Detroit Tigers had extended the contract of Miguel Cabrera through the 2023 season. The deal makes the Tigers total commitment to Cabrera now a 10-year contract worth $292 million. Heyman also reports that there is a vesting option for two more seasons if Cabrera finishes in the top-10 of the MVP voting in 2023.

The numbers are ridiculous and completely unnecessary. There was no need to make this move right now.

The Tigers still had Cabrera under contract for two more seasons at a very reasonable $22 million per season for both sides. Unless Cabrera was voicing his unhappiness behind the scenes and demanding a new deal, it is hard to understand the urgency to make this deal at this time.

The move is just one of many in this curious offseason for the Tigers and general manager Dave Dombrowski. Dombrowski has long been considered one of the best executives in the game, but he has had a very erratic winter.

Detroit is very close to being a World Series team again, and they seem to be operating with that mindset. The Tigers added closer Joe Nathan while trading Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Ian Kinsler. Both of those moves seem to signal that Detroit was going for it. 

Getting out from underneath the majority of Fielder’s remaining contract was a huge move for the franchise in the long-term. It should have allowed Detroit to lock up ace Max Scherzer. Fielder simply wasn’t producing up to expectations during the regular season, and especially the playoffs, as he was starting to show slight signs of decline at the plate. 

Instead, Cabrera’s extension comes on the heels of the Tigers publicly embarrassing 2013 Cy Young winner Scherzer over his unwillingness to take a deal that Detroit felt was more than fair. Dombrowski has since had to clear the air with Scherzer as reported here by USA Today‘s John Lowe.

Looking at Detroit’s payroll obligations for 2014 and beyond, it is hard to see the Tigers retaining Scherzer. Detroit already has $98 million committed to six players on the 2015 payroll without factoring in Scherzer. It certainly feels like once Scherzer rejected the Tigers’ offer, they made the decision to lock up Cabrera long-term. 

At the same time, Detroit seemed to suddenly pinch pennies, dealing off above-average starter Doug Fister for very little immediate return. On this Tigers staff, Fister was easily the best fourth-starter in MLB. The bullpen and the bench for the Tigers could have clearly stood an infusion of talent. 

This is nothing against Cabrera the player. The 30-year-old Cabrera is already in the midst of a Hall of Fame career that will likely land him in Cooperstown on the first ballot that he is eligible. He has won the AL MVP the past two seasons and will likely battle for the crown again this season barring something unforeseen. 

Unfortunately, though, this deal will take Cabrera to the age of 40. Cabrera struggled through injuries last season, something that impacted his play down the stretch and in the playoffs. Cabrera underwent core muscle repair surgery this past winter to fix the groin/abdominal injury and has looked healthy this spring. With the departure of Fielder, Cabrera will benefit greatly from the move back to first base.

Detroit was freed from a cumbersome contract when they moved Fielder to the Rangers at the beginning of the offseason. It was something that Detroit should have learned from. Now they have gone and put themselves in even more of a precarious position over the next 10 years with Cabrera.

Dombrowski, Cabrera and the Tigers would have been much better served to spend this money by keeping Fister earlier this winter and signing free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew once it became clear that Jose Iglesias was likely going to be lost for the season due to injury. This team is built to win the World Series now, not just the AL Central. 

Instead, Detroit will be going into the season with a below-average shortstop situation, questions in left field and questions in the bullpen while also having weakened the starting rotation in the process. 

Detroit made Cabrera an offer he simply couldn’t refuse. Now, the question is how long before the Tigers regret making the offer in the first place?

Information used from Jon Heyman/CBS Sports, Jon Heyman/CBS Sports, Baseball-Reference, John Lowe/USA Today Sports, Cot’s Baseball Contracts/Baseball Prospectus

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During the Freeway Series game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels on Friday, March 28, fans and players began to react to earthquake tremors. 

Dodgers announcer Vin Scully didn’t seem too worried, however, as he calmly continued to talk through the tremors like a true professional. You can watch the whole thing in the video below.

Play never stopped, and the Dodgers wound up winning in the 10th inning.

[MLB.com]

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During an exhibition game between the Los Angeles Angels and Dodgers, Hanley Ramirez hit a foul ball into the stands behind first base.

This was no friendly pop-up, but one fan was able to lay out and sacrifice his body to make the line-drive catch, which you can see in the video below.

Despite an early 3-0 lead in the first inning, the Angels ended up losing 5-4 to the Dodgers in 10 innings.

[MLB.com]

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The St. Louis Cardinals have always reveled in the underdog role.

They were the underdog against the Texas Rangers in the 2011 World Series. They were the underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year’s playoffs. They’ve been the underdog against just about everyone in past Octobers.

Except for this year.

Before a single pitch has been thrown (as Mike Matheny will remind you), the expectations are high for the 2014 Cardinals.

Matheny’s not a fan of talking expectations. Of course, neither is anyone else in MLB. While veteran players and front office personnel might be able to put those expectations aside, it’s not always so easy for young players.

“We like our chances just as much as anybody else, but to start making bold statements and predictions is really not wise,” Matheny said. “At this point, we’ve got to play the game.”

And the game starts now.

Whether they fully live up to those expectations, Matheny believes in playing every game like it’s your last—regardless of how much or how little is expected of you.

“It doesn’t matter the expectations and it doesn’t matter what people are saying,” Matheny said. “It’s a lot of talk and it gets you nowhere.”

They don’t talk about it regularly, but Matheny said he makes it clear to his players that the expectations and predictions for this team are just talk and nothing more.

“We have things that are said about us—compliments is what they are—but these guys have gone about their business the right way,” Matheny said.

While the team looks good on paper, that means nothing until it’s translated into on-field production. Just because a group of guys look good together statistically doesn’t make them winners.

Matheny is quick to point this out.

“People in this business understand we have talent, but talent has to come together as a team,” he said. “You’ve got to form the right kind of clubhouse and the right kind of play on the field.

“All of the speculation in the world gets you no runs. It doesn’t get you any outs from the mound either.”

Despite all of the hype and the need to play it down, Matheny understands why this team is drawing so much attention. Aside from the numbers, he feels he has a group of guys who all understand the importance of putting in their time.

“They go about it the right way,” he said. “They realize there’s a short window of opportunity in this game and they don’t want to lose any of those opportunities. They’re ready.”

It’s also important to remember that teams require change throughout the year. Whether it’s minor league call-ups or major league trades, more often than not a team looks different at game 162 than it did at game one.

General manager John Mozeliak knows that even with the best of teams, adjustments are usually required.

He thinks it’s a matter of “learning the DNA” of a particular team.

“We’re not perfect on day one and we know that,” Mozeliak said. “Our rotation looks stable, our everyday core players look solid. In terms of what we may have to go get at some point, we don’t know, but we know it will probably be something.

For now, as the Cardinals prepare for the season opener in Cincinnati, all they’re thinking about is getting back to baseball.

“It’s fun because now we get to go out there and actually see what we’ve got,” Matheny said.

—

All quotes obtained firsthand by the author.

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A spring training game between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets in Montreal took a scary turn Friday night when a fan fell from the stands at Olympic Stadium.

Constable Raphael Bergeron, spokesman for the Montreal Police, revealed the following information in a call to CNN:

The police received a call at 10:10 p.m. Friday night. The unidentified 40-year-old man, situated in the stands in right field of Olympic Stadium, slipped and went over a fence, falling approximately 20 feet. The incident was accidental.

The man suffered a concussion and other fractures, but his injuries are not considered life-threatening.

Alcohol could be a factor. Otherwise the case is closed, and no criminality was involved.

According to CTV Montreal, a witness said the man had been trying to start the wave. He climbed onto the railing but lost his footing and fell to the concrete below.

CTV Montreal noted light security and had a varying report on the man’s condition:

Ambulance attendants rushed to the scene to attend to the man as fans watched on at the crowded stadium. …

… Security was reportedly thin in that section in the latter part of the game. 

Danny Richer of the Montreal police told CTV Montreal late Friday that the man, “was seriously injured everywhere in his body, he’s still in critical condition, we do fear for his life.”

A fan in the stands was able to capture the scene after paramedics arrived:

This was the first night of Major League Baseball in Montreal since 2004 after the Expos relocated to Washington and became the Nationals.

According to a game recap from Sean Fitz-Gerald of the National Post, it had rained heavily that day, which apparently showed just how old Olympic Stadium is. 

Rain was falling heavily outside Olympic Stadium on Friday afternoon, and it was falling only slightly softer inside, by the main gate, where leaks in a skylight allowed puddles to form where fans would be queuing to watch a baseball game for the first time in a decade.

Before the game, former Expos catcher Gary Carter, who passed away in 2012, was honored with a moving tribute.

Former Expos Steve Rogers, Warren Cromartie and Tim Raines stood by Carter’s widow, Sandy, and daughter, Kimmy. During the ceremony, a video included highlights from Carter’s Hall of Fame career.

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If Bud Selig is, in fact, going to retire at the end of the year as he says he will, then Major League Baseball has some work to do to figure out who’s on deck to become the next commissioner. 

The ninth person to take on the job in MLB‘s long and storied history, Selig has handled the role since 1992 and will turn 80 years old in July. If this is his last year, Selig—who’s been known to change his mind about retirement in the past—will have served for 23 seasons in the same capacity, which is the second-longest tenure ever, behind only Kenesaw Mountain Landis‘ term from 1921 to 1944.

“This is definitely it,” Selig told Jayson Stark of ESPN in January. “I’m more comfortable today than I was when I [announced] it in October, if that’s possible. Jan. 24, 2015, is it. And I’m very comfortable with that. I’m done.”

While Selig has had his share of ups (i.e. record attendance figures) and downs (read: the steroid era), he’ll be remembered for his progressive approach toward growing the sport into a multi-billion dollar industry that has never been more popular than it is today.

As Selig enjoys the 2014 Opening Day—potentially his final one in office—here are some candidates who could step to the plate starting in 2015.

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For young, emerging superstars, contracts and earning power often become a combination of risk, reward and timing. For Mike Trout, the stars aligned in the form of a $144.5 million contract extension from the Los Angeles Angels, setting the once-in-a-generation all-around baseball genius up for now and later.

The news, per Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, sent shock waves through the baseball community late on Friday evening.

With the ink still drying on Miguel Cabrera’s $248 million extension, Trout earned his own payday, re-writing the narrative and record books for players with limited service time. According to Gonzalez’s source, the deal will ensure Trout is baseball’s highest-paid player relative to service time at every juncture of the breakdown.

At first glance, Trout’s payday sets him up for life. For the average fan, the idea of making $144.5 million is ludicrous and a life-changing decision. 

Yet, by eschewing year-to-year arbitration dances with the Angels, Trout forfeited the right to hit free agency at the age of 26. Had the dynamic, two-way center fielder declined this offer, played out his initial contract and hit free agency in 2018, the richest contract in professional sports would have likely been waiting for him. 

Despite the allure of becoming the first $350 or $400 million athlete in history, Trout had to take this deal, even if it meant delaying that inevitable trip to the land of suitors, blank check books and impetuous owners looking to make a splash. 

Why?

Risk, reward and timing.

While any open-minded baseball observer can project what Trout can become and accomplish over the next handful of years, there’s no way of knowing what will definitely occur. With injuries or a young, unforeseen decline hit, potential earning power could be curtailed in a significant way.

Consider this: From 2005-2008—during what were his first four full big league seasons—the American League‘s best center fielder hit 107 home runs, stole 115 bases and was worth 24.6 WAR. Over that span, only three players—Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez—were more valuable, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Looking back, it would have been easy to project Grady Sizemore for riches in free agency. That, of course, never happened. Injuries derailed what looked to be the start of a Hall of Fame career. Now, years after those star-level seasons, Sizemore is attempting to re-write his story in Boston on a $750,000 base salary.

To be fair, Sizemore wasn’t Trout. Trout owns 20.3 WAR before his age-22 season starts, while Sizemore just began to ascend and take off at the age Trout is now. Still, great young players don’t always have a linear trek to immortality. 

By signing the deal now, Trout is rewarded for what he’s done, while attempting to improve without the worry of a future deal hanging over him.  

Assuming baseball’s best player doesn’t become a “what if?” story for years to come, Trout’s career should unfold with an array of accolades and MVP awards. By the time he does hit the free-agent market at 29, unimaginable future earnings will still be possible.

By signing this deal, Trout eliminated the theoretical 12-year, $400 million deal from coming across his agent’s desk in 2018.  

That has now been replaced by two headline-making possibilities: The six-year, $144.5 million pact and a future deal—factoring in baseball’s burgeoning revenue streams and inflation—that could be worth an annual salary of $40 million. 

Essentially, Trout traded in the chance to cash in on his talent once for the opportunity to do it twice before the age of 30. Even if you believe he gave the Angels a break right now—as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues—riches will be there later.

The five most lucrative contracts in baseball history belong to Alex Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez (yes, again), Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano. Take a look at the age each player was the season before signing their respective mega deals. 

At 29, Trout will have the chance to exceed all of those numbers.

Last, but certainly not least for a player without a career at-bat in October, is timing.

By taking the 10-year or “lifetime” pact off the table with the Angels, Trout leaves his options open for the future. Financially, his current franchise should always have the ability to pay him top dollar, but if the New Jersey native wants to flee to greener—or more successful—pastures in 2020, he can do it in his prime. 

At some point, winning becomes a major priority for each player. If Trout wins big in L.A. over the next seven seasons, there’s little reason to believe he would leave for a different market or team.

If the Angels continue to fumble their way through putting a competitive outfit on the field, big-market teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Mets and crosstown Dodgers would all have ample time to clear the books and allocate the necessary funds to land Trout down the line.

By signing this deal, Trout achieved the best possible outcome any young superstar could hope for: Money now, money later, and the ability to re-write his narrative before the age of 30.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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