Kuzul

The Mariners entered Monday’s series opener with the Toronto Blue Jays on a seven-game losing streak since opening the season 2-0. They won the first two games of that series, and had a great chance to win the third before reigning home run king Jose Bautista ended their aspirations of a sweep with one swing.

Yet despite the series win over a solid baseball team, the stretch marked rock bottom in the last decade of Seattle baseball. How could that be, you ask? Let us peek at the attendance figures.

On Monday, Felix Hernandez faced off with one of the hardest-hitting lineups in baseball, his first start in Safeco Field as reigning Cy Young winner. He floundered, but in one of the young season’s great ironies, the soft-hitting Mariners put up eight runs in the last three innings, winning the game on reserve Luis Rodriguez’s walk-off single.

A total of 13,056 fans were in attendance, many of them absent by the time of the comeback (and many more booing as the team they travelled to see—the Blue Jays—gave away their lead). The largely anti-Mariner crowd was the smallest in the history of Safeco Field.

Two days later was almost predestined to re-set the dubious “record.” Instead of Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez, the young and relatively anonymous Jason Vargas took the bump. And the game started at 12:40. On a Wednesday.

Sure enough, 12,407 fans were on hand to watch the come-from-behind Jays victory, barely filling Safeco Field to one-fourth its capacity. ROOT Sports, Seattle’s local broadcaster, eventually gave up on showing groups of fans in the stands.

Twelve years does not make a stadium old, but it sure takes the luster off of it. By and large, people no longer attend Mariner games to see Ichiro or wander the beautiful ballpark; most Seattleites who want to go have been before, and the team isn’t good enough to draw them back.

Do not get me wrong; there is nothing wrong with the Safe. The family environment is still second-to-none. The problem is the team’s recent performance.

It has failed to make the playoffs every year since the miracle 116-win 2001 season. Only twice since then have the M’s finished as high as second in the four-team American League West.

The honors bestowed on the franchise since 2001 are more dubious ones, “first team to lose 100-plus games with a $100 million payroll” (2008) being the one that hurts most.  Last year, they again lost 101 games. The Mariners have ceased to be a conversation piece outside of sports radio hosts and the most diehard of fans.

Yet despite their struggles, Safeco had continued to have decent attendance numbers. Last year, despite the worst record in the American League, the Mariners finished 21st in attendance.

That time is over. Fans have gone from angry to apathetic—and indifferent fans do not attend games. The city’s Safeco Field saturation point also appears near, if it is not there yet. So where to go from here?

There are two reasons to have faith.

One is that the rainy, 50-degree days spent playing middling American League East teams will end as spring fades to summer. More fans will come out simply because of the weather and competition. (The Yankees visit for a weekend in May and the Red Sox do likewise in mid-August.)

The second reason for hope is longer-term, but hopefully more lasting. This team is getting better.

It appears, barring injury, that they have found their second ace of the future in Michael Pineda. The 6’6” fireballer has looked downright dominant, and maturity and his friendship with Hernandez will only help him on the mound. Young and powerful, Justin Smoak already helps anchor an admittedly weak lineup.

In AAA, 2B Dustin Ackley just hit his first home run of the season and looks to learn the ropes at second base—a position he converted to upon being drafted—in time to get his feet wet in the MLB when rosters expand in September.

And those are simply the two most well-known names. Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi and Kyle Seager are working their way towards the Safeco infield, hoping to complement Smoak and Ackley from the left side. A cavalcade of young arms is on the way as well, hoping to be ready to join the rotation over the next few years.

It is not an immediate solution to the attendance problem, and regrettably Safeco Field—as last series showed—no longer takes care of attendance on its own. Hopefully some crisp Seattle weather and a likeable group of young players will provide the immediate attendance relief.

And hopefully in a few years I won’t have to use phrases like “likeable young players” and “crisp Seattle weather” to give Seattleites a reason to head to Safeco Field.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A sport bruised by work stoppages. Millionaires fighting with billionaires. Fans showed their displeasure the best way they knew how. They stopped going to games.

Things picked back up in the late 1990s, with more fans piling into more parks than ever before.

There was some thought that fans came back because of the sudden surge of offense via the most exciting thing in the game, the home run.

Things really picked up in 1998 when Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and Greg Vaughn all finished with 50 or more home runs, with McGwire and Sosa both eclipsing the record set by Roger Maris in 1961. Nine other players slugged over 40 homers.

A whole bunch of failed drug tests, grand jury indictments and 13 years later left people connecting the dots between that power surge and the use of performance enhancing drugs. Most notable of course being steroids.

So while saying home runs saved baseball was cliche at the time, there is now a thought that the very thing so many of us are upset about is what saved baseball.

I’m not so sure about that.

In the early 1980s, baseball had two short work stoppages. Eight days in 1980 and two days in 1985. Sandwiched between those was a 50-day dispute in 1981. Still, attendance stayed north of 20,000 per game league-wide, eventually rising to over 25,000 for the National League and nearly 30,000 for the American League.

Just as things were starting to get better, they got uglier.

The 32-day lockout in 1990 was nothing compared to the 232-day strike launched by the players in 1994 that wiped out the World Series for the first time.

After attendance averages had reached as high as nearly 37,000 for the senior circuit in 1993, the fans seemingly had enough.

Then came the aforementioned power surge and fans flowed back through the turnstiles as if they had turned the other cheek or decided to give their national pastime another chance.

Attendance rocketed into the 32,000 range for the AL and north of 38,000 for the NL where McGwire and Sosa were putting on the fireworks show.

With reasonable regression expected after the home run record chases, attendance league wide dropped to an average of around 30,000 per game in 2000. Throughout the next decade, we’d see a spike as high as 32,694 in 2007 with the low being around 28,000 during a small hiccup in 2002.

The league isn’t seeing the attendance it did in the late ’90s, but it’s not seeing the lows of the ’70s, ’80s and early ’90s either.

With relative labor peace in baseball compared to the nasty fight with the NFL, and the one expected with the NBA, things have been smooth.

A sport once marred by strikes, lockouts, bickering and fighting has seen nothing but immense growth over the past 16 years thanks to revenue sharing, media and merchandising booms and more.

Did steroids save baseball?

I don’t think so.

Baseball, in all its beauty and glory, saved baseball. Just by showing up.

Alex Carson is a Mariners and MLB writer and blogger. Follow him on Twitter: @AlexCarson

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s Opening Day, which means it’s time to put the spreadsheets away and head out to the ballpark for pampered grass, the smell of garlic fries and a rousing nine innings of pure bliss.

What better way to enjoy this event than sharpening your pencil and getting lost in a baseball game by keeping score?

That may not be for everyone. Perhaps you’re more into chatting, watching the Hydro Races and anticipating the start of The Wave.

Each fan has a unique way of enjoying a ballgame. We all have our own special love for the game. Some refuse to miss a pitch or leave early, and some just want to hang out and beat the traffic in the eight inning.

So for those of you who want to try something new this season at Safeco Field, this slideshow is for you. From food to views to people. This your guide to enjoying a unique experience at the House That Griffey Built.

Begin Slideshow

The Mariners sent Michael Pineda, their rookie right-hander, to the mound and got all they had hoped for from the young horse.

Unfortunately, as has become all too common, they didn’t get what they wanted from their offense.

Pineda looked sharp early, sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, occasionally reaching 97.

In the first inning, it almost looked too easy for Pineda as he retired Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton in order with Kinsler and Hamilton going down via strikeout.

Things got a little dicey in the second as the Rangers got on the board with Nelson Cruz scoring on a Mitch Moreland triple that center fielder Michael Saunders misjudged. Saunders scaled the wall preparing to snare a home run ball back, only to see the ball ping off the wall as he twisted and turned.

The damage was limited to that one run, though, as Pineda kept the Mariners stagnant offense in the game as he cruised through the fifth inning with his pitch count only reaching 59 pitches.

In the sixth inning, Pineda started to run out of gas despite the low pitch count. He began to miss spots by wide margins, leaving balls up with catcher Miguel Olivo spotting his glove low.

In that frame, Kinsler lead off with a single to left that grazed the top of a jumping Jack Wilson’s glove. After Elvis Andrus moved Kinsler over to second with a sacrifice bunt, Hamilton drove him in with a double. Two batters later, Michael Young drove a double of his own to score Hamilton to push the score to 3-0.

The bleeding finally stopped after a Nelson Cruz flyout that would end up being Pineda’s final pitch of the night.

Rangers starter Alexi Ogando also exited the game after six innings due to a blister on his pitching hand, which opened the door for a potential Mariners comeback.

With former Mariner Mark Lowe on the mound for Texas, the Mariners were finally able to get something going offensively in the seventh inning. Miguel Olivo and Adam Kennedy reached base, followed by back-to-back RBI singles from Jack Wilson and Michael Saunders that put the Mariners in position to get Pineda off the hook.

Ichiro reached base on an error by Kinsler at second base, loading the bases with one out. However, a sharp lineout by Chone Figgins and a flyout by Milton Bradley ended the rally.

The final six batters of the game for the Mariners were retired in order, securing a tough loss for Pineda in his big league debut.

Pineda did face a heavily right-handed Rangers lineup he could succeed against. However, when the Texas bats struck, they struck for extra base hits with men on base.

If you’re the Mariners, you have to be pleased with this performance, though.

While there are many out there who thought Pineda’s secondary stuff needed more seasoning in the minors, the rookie looked like a grizzled veteran fighting for six mostly strong innings.

Michael Pineda clearly belongs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Happy opening day!

The long winter is over. All of the speculation and talk can come to an end and baseball can once again be played on grass and dirt instead of paper.

Unlike the expectations of a season ago, these Mariners enter the 2011 campaign with low expectations. No one expects them to contend, and perhaps that will play in their favor. Not in that they’ll actually contend, but that they can relax and work to get better without a microscope on their every move.

I’ve had them penciled in for 70 wins as an official prediction, but that number will likely sway one way or the other depending on several factors that play out during the season. If they have several players have career years, maybe that number balloons closer to 80. If they have another season filled with under-performance, well, let’s not speculate on that.

One thing we can take from last season, if you’re into that whole glass-half-full mentality, is that things can’t get worse. With so many players having wretched seasons, you almost are forced to expect regression to the mean and improvement.

The chances of this team shocking the world are incredibly low. If they’re going to do it, though, these are the keys to achieving that success.

Begin Slideshow

This is an insane column, folks. Why would the Seattle Mariners trade Felix Hernandez before the trade deadline? Why would they trade him ever?

To butcher a line from my good friend (never met the man) Allen Iverson, “Felix? We talkin’ ‘bout King Felix?”

I went to Arizona last year for spring training with a friend who was “in” with the Seattle brass. We were hooked up with game tickets, as well as being able to meet and mingle with the players, etc.

I got a really good look at Seattle’s pitching staff that year, and if somebody told me that they were going to trade Cliff Lee, I would have performed, right there on the spot, my best Iverson impersonation: “Lee? We talkin’ ‘bout Cliff Lee?”

I would have bet my bank account (good for about two trips to Bojangles—Bo-rounds one trip and seasoned fries the next; gotta mix things up a bit—and a nosebleed seat to a Bobcats game—I’m trying to embrace my new surroundings since my move from Los Angeles) the Mariners wouldn’t trade Lee.

Thankfully, I never made that bet because 1) I love Bo-rounds and B) the Mariners shipped Mr. Lee to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak, a couple of young pitchers and some other guy. The Rangers, incidentally, went on to play in the World Series. The Mariners did not.

You can look at this thing two ways. First, you can ask yourself how the Mariners could essentially make the same mistake two years in a row and thus conclude that writing about a King Felix trade is just an extreme waste of my time, or you can pitch your tent on the other side of camp, where the “well, they did it before, so I can see them doing it again” people reside. Where are you most comfortable?

In order to trade Hernandez, Seattle must believe it has some extremely pressing needs at the plate. Looking at last year’s Cliff Lee trade, we see that the Mariners definitely upgraded their bats and defense with Justin Smoak, a very promising young slugger.

You see, Seattle went into last season making a deep run in the playoffs without even playing a single inning. In addition to Cliff Lee, they acquired Chone Figgins at third base, Casey Kotchman at first base and Milton Bradley in the outfield. They were stacked to make a run for it.

Then Bradley self-destructed (big surprise there), Figgins essentially decided to take the year off but still collect his paycheck and Kotchman proved that there was a significant reason why the Red Sox only used him as a “just-in-case” man. All of these things made Seattle believe they needed to move Lee for some bats. What will make them believe that this year?

In taking a look at Seattle’s roster, not much impresses me. There is the ageless Ichiro Suzuki manning the outfield, Justin Smoak at first and then there is…well…you tell me. Miguel Olivo is a decent enough catcher, batting .318 with Colorado last season, but then again, Chone Figgins was good before his move to Seattle.

Unfortunately, the Mariners’ Gold Glove center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, has a stomach illness that they’re unable to diagnose, and thus he’s listed third on the depth chart at his position. It seems that the Mariners have big bat concerns.

As for its starting pitching, Seattle has King Felix and not much else to write home about. At this point the question becomes, what can you do to improve your team overall, and does keeping Hernandez actually hurt you since he can’t singlehandedly take you to the playoffs?

I argue that they have to trade the man. He is worth so much in return, especially to teams that have a legitimate shot at the playoffs this year. Seattle has little else in the way of trade chips; in fact, it has nothing else. Holding on to Hernandez would be the wrong move for the Mariners.

I understand that the fans will have to wait several more years for their team to be contenders, but with last year’s trade blunders behind them, it is time to start anew.

If you believe that King Felix needs to be traded, then the “who will take him” problem comes into play. There are the usual suspects, led by the New York Yankees.

It seems that the Bronx Bombers aren’t exactly awesome on the mound this year—at least not as awesome as they would like to be. CC Sabathia is followed by Phil Hughes (promising but not an ace), A.J. Burnett (overpaid and underperforming), Ivan Nova (who?) and finally Freddy Garcia (everybody rejoice—he won his final spring training game, whoop-dee-doo).

The Yankees brass knows that rotation won’t hold up to a healthy Red Sox lineup with additions Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, and that is whom they’re fighting for a playoff berth.

The Yankees are very much the team to beat in the King Felix trade discussions. The Phillies will be making a playoff run but have no room for Hernandez. Tell me where you would place King Felix in a rotation with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton.

On ESPN yesterday Curt Schilling projected the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL Central, and he may be right. They are looking very strong at the plate. It isn’t inconceivable that they would make a run at King Felix. Hernandez would make a very nice addition to a rotation led by youngster Yovani Gallardo.

But whom would they give up for the best pitcher in baseball? If they were making a World Series run, they would still need Prince Fielder’s bat in their lineup along with the other Brew Crew starters. Maybe they have an unbelievable farm system that Seattle can raid in return; I don’t know.

The Boston Red Sox have no need for Hernandez. They are pitching Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. All are under long-term contracts, and all are pretty damn good.

Maybe the Cubbies or Mets would take a run at the King, but I don’t see them landing him.

My take on Seattle’s situation is grim. They won’t make the playoffs by keeping King Felix, and they won’t make the playoffs by trading him, at least not this year. I project that Seattle shops him around before the deadline and that Hernandez gets snatched up by the only team in Major League Baseball that has the money, prospects and current roster players to make such a deal: the New York Yankees.

The Yanks were spurned by Cliff Lee and are scared of the Red Sox additions. With the Baltimore Orioles adding a lot of pop to their batting order this offseason, the boys in pinstripes are staring third place in the AL East squarely in the face. King Felix could change all of that.

By the trade deadline I see the Yankees mortgaging the farm to acquire Felix Hernandez and the remainder of his five-year, $78 million contract. I also see Seattle being the better for it in a couple of years when the zillions of top-rated prospects that they’ll surely get in return finally showcase their abilities at Safeco Field.

Speaking of the Yankees and pitchers, here is a little trivia for you. The Yankees had a guy pitching for them at one point who was the winningest left-handed pitcher in baseball over a three-year span. The twist is that he wasn’t pitching for the Bronx Bombers when he held this distinction. Can you name the player and the years?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

During their primes Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr. were the two greatest hitters of their era.

Both second-generation ballplayers, having famous fathers who had enjoyed their own successful careers, Bonds and Griffey were lifelong acquaintances that had similar career paths and comparable numbers through their primes.

While their paths to Major League Baseball were similar, their legacies would wind up very different.

Barry Bonds debuted with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1986 and went on to finish sixth in Rookie of the Year voting at the age of 21. He would play seven seasons for the Pirates, totaling 176 career home runs, batting .275 and winning two MVP awards, before signing as a free agent with the San Francisco Giants in 1993.

From 1993-2007, Bonds would rewrite the history books while wearing a San Francisco Giants uniform, playing for the team his father had. Bonds would go on to win six more MVP awards during that span and amass an unbelievable 586 additional home runs, including a single-season record 73 home runs in 2001. By the time Barry would finish playing his final major-league game in 2007, he would own the career record for home runs with 762.

Ken Griffey, Jr. had his own share of early success. Griffey debuted with the Seattle Mariners in 1989 at the age of 19 and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting. In 11 seasons with the Mariners, Griffey would receive MVP votes in nine seasons, winning the 1997 MVP award.

Griffey would hit 398 career home runs in his first stint with the Mariners while batting .299 over the 11-year span. The Seattle Mariners truly had the most iconic player of his generation during his prime.

In 2000, at the age of 30, Griffey requested and was granted a trade to Cincinnati in order to play closer to his home in Florida. Griffey’s tenure with the Reds was marred with injuries and was nowhere close to the elite level of play he enjoyed while a member of the Mariners. While playing for Cincinnati, Griffey would enjoy several key milestones: Home runs number 400, 500 and 600 would all come while wearing the same Reds uniform his father wore.

In 2008 the Reds traded Griffey to the Chicago White Sox for the remainder of the season. In 2009, Junior would re-sign with the Seattle Mariners to bring his career full circle and eventually retire with the team that gave him his start. Griffey retired in the middle of last season with 630 career home runs, 132 behind his longtime friend, Barry Bonds.

It was long before their careers wound down, though, that Bonds and Griffey found themselves heading in different directions.

Following the conclusion of the home run chase between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in 1998 that captured the attention of the country, Bonds and Griffey reportedly met in Florida at Griffey’s house. The two had a discussion that would see them make very different decisions that will ultimately affect how both are remembered.

In his book Love Me, Hate Me, Jeff Pearlman tells a story in which Bonds met with Griffey and confided in his longtime friend over dinner that he was about to start taking some “hard-core stuff.” Bonds was jealous of the attention that McGwire and Sosa received, feeling that he was the superior athlete and ballplayer and was not receiving his due recognition. While Bonds chose to elevate his game by cheating, Griffey chose to stay clean.

For the record, Griffey defended Bonds and stated to MLB.com back in 2006 that he did not recall such a conversation ever taking place.

Regardless of whether or not the conversation happened, the decision by Bonds to use steroids, and Griffey to remain clean, alters the outcomes of two great careers.

Both players are now out of the game; only memories of their accomplishments remain. Bonds was shunned by all 30 teams following the 2007 season, and Griffey retired in the middle of the 2010 season quietly and without any fanfare—a sad ending to the careers of two of baseball’s greatest players.

In neither case was it the end to their baseball stories though.

Barry Bonds will be eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame following the 2012 season. Griffey will be eligible after 2015. Would you care to wager a guess as to which player is enshrined first?

As spring training 2011 winds down and today’s major leaguers prepare for the regular season, the current role that each player holds tells the tale.

Griffey is a special instructor in Mariners spring training and a special assistant to the front office. Griffey is still embraced within the game of baseball.

Bonds, shunned by San Francisco Giants ownership, is sitting in a federal courtroom listening to testimony as a federal grand jury decides if he perjured himself in stating that he never knowingly used performance-enhancing drugs.

Details of Bonds’ steroid use will undoubtedly emerge and stick in the minds of the fans and baseball writers who will eventually decide Bonds’ fate in baseball immortality. In reality, though, no additional details are really necessary. Bonds was convicted in the court of public opinion long ago.

As a result, 762 is not the same as 755; 73 is not as important as 61. Hank Aaron is still the king, and Roger Maris is still the man to beat for the single-season mark.

The memory of Barry Bonds is not the all-around athlete that won MVP awards in the early 1990s for the Pirates or the player the Giants signed that helped them to the playoffs in 1997. That slender athlete that could hit for average and power, play Gold Glove defense and was a constant threat on the basepaths is long forgotten, replaced by the mutation that emerged as a result of his dealings with BALCO.

The memory of Ken Griffey, Jr., on the other hand, is still that fun-loving, backwards-hat-wearing ballplayer that made the game look easy. Yes, we will remember that Griffey was injured more often than not as his career wound down, but there is not a hint of any wrongdoing. Had Griffey had better luck and remained healthy, he could have stood ahead of Bonds in the record books. It will be Griffey that enjoys induction into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility, while Bonds waits.

While 630 stands just below Willie Mays in fifth on the all-time home run list, at least to me, it stands above 762.

Brandon McClintock covers Major League Baseball for BleacherReport.com. You can follow Brandon on twitter @BMcClintock_BR.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Felix Hernandez in pinstripes is something that a lot of people still see as a possibility, even as early as this season.

A lot has been ballyhooed about the reigning Cy Young’s status with the Mariners, his no-trade clause and whether or not the Mariners should consider shipping off their ace for a true king’s ransom.

Stephen Meyer, who heads up the MLB content team here on Bleacher Report, put together a logical piece discussing Felix’s no-trade clause and why it doesn’t mean he couldn’t be traded to one of the listed teams.

Stephen made a lot of solid points. Often times, no-trade clauses are misconstrued as a player’s desire not to go to a specific team.

In reality, players of Felix’s ilk retain smart agents who make sure their client has leverage in any trade negotiation.

That said, there are some things with Stephen’s piece I disagree with. These issues aren’t something I’d use to claim he’s wrong per say, but rather to play devil’s advocate and point out some things that people who follow the Mariners more closely may be privy to.

Here are three major points to counter his argument that Felix could indeed be traded this season:

1. Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik and his front office are renowned around the league as a group that hold their cards extremely close to their vests. It was for that reason that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. approached Zduriencik at the winter meetings a year ago to discuss a potential Cliff Lee deal.

Ken Rosenthal, probably the most connected reporter in baseball, was finally able to sniff out some details, but the Mariners’ involvement remained a secret until the deal was virtually done.

What this all means is that the Mariners don’t talk about stuff—not their GM nor his employees.

When Zduriencik does talk, you can walk the check into the bank and cash it without issue. He’s tight-lipped, giving canned answers often, but has no problem being candid once a decision is made.

His continued insistence that Felix isn’t going anywhere shouldn’t be looked at as posturing. The depth of his insistence shows that he and ownership have no desire to trade Hernandez.

2. Felix has been up front about his desire to stay in Seattle. Of course, the no-trade clause doesn’t mean things can’t change, but usually players give canned responses like “This is where I am now, we’ll see what the future holds” if they aren’t sure or have other plans.

Sometimes, you can just read people.

The way Felix’s face lights up when he talks about Seattle, it doesn’t look like a guy who is sick of losing or wants to force his way out.

3. The team would need motivation to trade him.

Rosenthal and I exchanged some tweets about this. He believes that the time is now, while the return would be the greatest, for the Mariners to consider a deal.

He and others may believe that a full rebuild should be done at this point, considering the state of both the big league roster and farm system.

While I agree with that logic, Felix is in a special category. I think people forget that he still has to pay a surcharge to rent a car.

He’ll turn 25 in time for his third start of the season.

Furthermore, the hardest thing for any team to get is a bone fide No. 1 starter.

Of the names that people have mentioned that could come back from New York, there is no certainty any will yield the value Felix already has at a young age.

Look, I’m the first guy that is willing to let his emotional attachment to a player go if a deal makes sense. As a Mariners fan, I’ve become an expert at this as our superstars have fled the scene of the accident.

In this case, though, you have a player that is far too special to flip for some unproven prospects—each with their own potential issues.

Next season, the club will be another year removed from the mess that Bill Bavasi left. They’ll finally have some payroll flexibility to make roster moves that come from places other than the scrap heap and rehab room.

The Mariners don’t need to rebuild without Felix Hernandez. They need to build around him.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has been one of the hottest stories of the MLB offseason, but not resulting from his 2010 Cy Young or his actions on or off the field.

Trade speculation has been rampant and relentless regarding the American League’s best pitcher, as Hernandez’s Mariners team walks the tightrope of adding payroll or starting from scratch in a rebuild.

FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi recently revealed eight of the 10 teams in Hernandez’s much-discussed no-trade clause, and all of them were high-profile and high-payroll organizations.

The list included the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs—which inevitably caused outcry for the “King Felix to the Yankees” talk to stop for good.

The problem with that logic is a clear misunderstanding of the no-trade process and why a pitcher of Hernandez’s skill set would construct one in this framework.

Are we to believe that King Felix, a man with ice water running through his veins and an unrelenting competitiveness, would suddenly get cold feet about large-market baseball?

Additionally, we’re to take seriously the notion he would all but eliminate every MLB team that could pay the astronomical salary he’ll command when the time comes for an extension?

This no-trade construction is simply a savvy move by an agent that is doing his job—maximizing the earning potential of his best and most desirable client.

The Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs of the world are included not because Hernandez would never pitch there.

These teams are instead chosen for two key reasons:

1. The larger payroll markets are most likely to not only afford Felix’s salary in the short and long term, but also pursue a trade for him in order to make a run at a title.

2. Players with no-trade clauses in their contracts have the ability to be “compensated for forfeiture” of that right in order to complete a deal. As a result, Felix can essentially be “bought out” without losing a dime of his contractual value ($20.03 million per year from 2012 to 2014).

Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has repeatedly shot down any rumors of the situation, and he has no motivation to do otherwise. It is far too early to even consider moving your franchise player—especially in the most wide-open AL West in recent memory.

Felix is happy in Seattle, the Mariners are thrilled to have him and they have every reason to believe they’ll contend in the near future.

Do I believe that a trade is imminent in 2011? No, absolutely not. Do I believe a third season in four years of between 60 and 65 victories could begin to sway that opinion after 2011? Yes, I do.

If Seattle struggles as a franchise until the July 2012 trading deadline, they will be forced to reevaluate the future of the organization—including Ichiro Suzuki in his contract year and Felix representing about 50 percent of current 2013 payroll obligations.

They will have plenty of money to spend and prospects to groom over the next 12 months, but much like LeBron James in Cleveland, they’ll have to show Felix he can win a title there…and soon.

The odds of Hernandez ending up in pinstripes—or any other MLB uniform—is very slim in 2011. They are not even one percentage point lower, however, than they were before word of his no-trade reached the news wire.

If Felix stays a Mariner for the duration of his contract, it will be because they build a team around him, maintain a stable financial position and establish the groundwork for a World Series contender.

It will not, however, be based on a disinterest in pitching for large-market teams or a devout commitment to his no-trade clause.

It is important to first understand the real reasons behind a no-trade before assuming a player’s motive.

Felix would not prefer to pitch in Cleveland or Kansas City as opposed to New York or Chicago, but that does not mean he will move out of Seattle in the near future, either.

One thing can be said for certain amidst all of the speculation and frustration: Interested teams will never stop trying to change Seattle’s mind.

The Mariners would demand a player ransom that could make the Twins feel like they got fleeced in the AJ Pierzynski deal, but this would be one occasion where a US organization would negotiate with terrorists.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

About a month ago, I wrote about some bold predictions for this upcoming Mariners season. In it, I said that Ichiro will win a batting title.

It really isn’t an insanely bold prediction since this is something entirely possible in any given season with Ichiro. That doesn’t make it something that is a lock, though, either.

I’ll expand on that prediction a bit, and give five reasons that show he can still do it.

Begin Slideshow