Kuzul

With the Pirates likely done improving the team via free agency, there still could be a trade or two that could better the club, not only in the short-term but more importantly the long-term.

The Pirates front office has made it known to clubs that it would be open to dealing both catcher Ryan Doumit and starting pitcher Paul Maholm.

Most Pirates fans would have hoped that Doumit would have been dealt by now.  While that could still happen before the beginning of the season, it seems more likely that he heads to Wrigley Field on April 1 as a member of the 25-man roster. What’s more likely with Doumit is that the Pirates wait until another team has a need created by an injury and then look to deal him.

On the other hand, Maholm’s stock could be rising.

Many major league teams could use a veteran left-hander in their rotation come opening day. One team in particular may be willing to pay the Pirates price. That team could be the New York Yankees.

This would make sense for both organizations.

The Pirates currently don’t really need Maholm or his salary. The club added a couple of arms in the offseason, and the chances of competing for the NL Central crown are slim. Dealing the southpaw could also create a spot for either Charlie Morton or Brad Lincoln, who both deserve another look.

A Maholm deal makes even more sense for New York. Andy Pettitte’s retirement created a void in the Yankees’ rotation that likely needs to fill by Opening Day. With the offseason the Boston Red Sox had, the Yankees may be forced to overpay for a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher to compete for the AL East crown.

Maholm could flourish by being dealt to the Yankees. Despite the short porch in right field, Maholm throws strikes and competes. He could do very well with a competitive team that can score runs and catch the ball behind him.

While it’s just a thought, this could be a win-win situation for both clubs if it ever gets discussed.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates today came to terms with left-hander Brian Burres on a new contract that will offer the southpaw a chance to compete for a job in the 2011 rotation.

The 29-year-old Burres, who was a mild surprise in 2010, was re-signed even though he was non-tendered last month.

Burres turned in his best year as a major leaguer for the Pirates last season, going 4-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 20 appearances (13 starts).

The signing of Burres provides the Pirates with depth, as Burres can also serve as a long man if needed.

The signing of another potential starting pitcher makes the potential 2011 starting rotation a crowded one.

Burres will compete with the likes of Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Correia, James McDonald, Scott Olsen, Jeff Karstens, Brad Lincoln, Charlie Morton and Daniel McCutchen for the five open spots.

Maholm, Correia, McDonald and Ohlendorf are likely locks to begin the season in the rotation, but make no mistake about it, the Pirates need Lincoln and Morton to finally emerge.

The competition in spring training should be very interesting.  If one of the younger arms, or even a guy like Rudy Owens, surprise in March, then someone will have to be moved.

The likely candidate becomes Maholm, who has seen his name in trade rumors for the last couple of seasons.  Many teams would covet a lefty who has proved durable during his career, even though his numbers aren’t that great.

It may make sense for Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington to pull the trigger on a deal involving Maholm if the right offer comes around.

While I’ve always like the way Maholm battles and competes on the hill, he is a guy that doesn’t necessarily make the 2011 team much better.

The combination of Maholm’s salary and what appears to be a crowded bunch of arms, likely could spell the end of his Pittsburgh Pirates career.

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While we were all waiting to see if Cliff Lee would choose to be in Texas or the Bronx in 2011, he went out and LeBron-d us.

Lee will be taking his talents to the city of brotherly love and join Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt to create one of the, if not the, greatest starting rotations that the world has ever seen.

Lee’s decision hurts three teams in the MLB the most: The New York Yankees, the Texas Rangers, and the Atlanta Braves.

The Yankees should be just fine. All though Lee’s decision may cause them to lose the division to the Red Sox, they have just enough money and prospects to go out and get the next best option and make the postseason.

The Rangers are cooked. Even if they do make it into the playoffs, which they most likely will due to the horrible division that they reside in, they will not make it very far without their former ace. Without Lee, their rotation is just mediocre.

The Braves, however, went from being the favorites to win the National League East to just one of the front runners to win the National League Wild card overnight.

Now how does Atlanta counter Philadelphia‘s move? Sure, Dan Uggla was a step in the right direction for the Braves, but their starting rotation is just average compared to the Phillies’ big four. Atlanta only has about $1 million left to spend, meaning they need to make a couple of trades if they want to contend for the NL East title in 2011.

For financial purposes, trading away veteran starter Derek Lowe would make the most sense, but since Lowe performed so well down the stretch in 2010, that likely won’t happen. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been very interested in starter-turned-disappointment Kenshin Kawakami and have stated that a deal involving Paul Maholm is a possibility. Sure, Maholm is not Cliff Lee, but he then gives Atlanta one extra starting pitcher to trade in exchange for the centerfielder that they have been missing since the departure of Andruw Jones.

I wonder….Who is desperate for starting pitching after the Cliff Lee deal and has an expendable centerfielder with the great speed and defense that the Atlanta Braves lack…? 

The New York Yankees.

Brett Gardner, the fastest man in baseball, will likely take a back seat to the rejuvenated Curtis Granderson in 2011 and the fact that the Braves and Yankees both fit each other’s needs makes them a trading match made in heaven.

If Atlanta were to trade one of their starting pitchers, it would be young Jair Jurjens.

Jurjens had somewhat of an off year last year due to injury, but he got it together at the end of the year and in his three previous seasons with the Braves, JJ has shown flashes of brilliance.

Say the Braves trade Jurjens to the Yankees, Kawakami to the Bucs, and acquire Gardner and Maholm. Even though Maholm had an off-year in 2010, his ERA was not much higher than Jurjens and he started twelve more games than JJ. Mahlom has had a couple of good seasons and who knows how good he could be for a team actually in contention. It is obviously still a downgrade from Jurjens, but the acquisition of Gardner and the incredible pitching depth in Atlanta’s farm system would far outweigh that.

With a good hitting coach and more game experience, Gardner has the potential to bat .300 and become the Braves’ true leadoff man that they have lacked for so many years. When the College of Charleston graduate gets on base, he is the biggest distraction in baseball for pitchers and almost a guarantee to steal.

Do not expect the Braves to go out and sign Zack Greinke or Adrian Beltre. They do not have the finances or the trading chips to acquire a superstar-type player like Uggla again and there is no way that Frank Wren can match what the Phillies did.

However, if the GM can give the Braves their key missing components on offense, most importantly center field, they should be in the NL East race the entire year. Philadelphia obviously has the advantage in pitching, but with their loss of star outfielder Jayson Werth and the Braves’ acquisition of slugger Dan Uggla, the Braves should be the better offensive team.

Remember, Atlanta still has one of the best rotations in baseball and all of the Philadelphia starters are human….except Halladay…so this is certainly not the end of the world for the Atlanta Braves.

Don’t stop choppin’, Braves fans and don’t stop dealin’, Frank Wren.

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On a good night, Zach Duke can out-duel the likes of Cy Young-winners Johann Santana or Roy Halladay. On a bad night, well, last night’s nine-run outing against the Florida Marlins was all too “good” an example of such.

Do these extremes net out, or is one more important than the other in determining Duke’s worth to the Pirates?

Matt Shetler nailed it when he suggested that Duke be NON-tendered and not brought back in 2011. While Duke isn’t exactly the worst pitcher around, Shetler rightly pointed out that Duke IS about as bad as a VETERAN pitcher will likely be.

Put another way, someone with Duke’s experience should be decidedly better than struggling rookies and near-rookies like Brad Lincoln, Dan McCutchen, and Charlie Morton. Except that he isn’t.

Age might not be the issue here; length of service is. Brian Burres is actually older than Duke. But in addition to making much less than Duke, Burres appears to be a late bloomer with less experience who has finally hit his stride and is on an upcurve appropriate for someone of his experience level (Although he’d be more convincing if it had taken place five years earlier).

On the other hand, Duke was an early bloomer that entered a long term decline. Duke was the Pirates’ great hope as of 2005, when he got off to a sensational start (an ERA of 1.81 for a half season).

But even then there were signs that things weren’t as good as they seemed. At that time, Duke’s  FIP (a “sabermetric” ERA estimated by home runs, walks, and strikeouts), was more like 3.00. That suggested that he was a strong pitcher, but not the Cy Young contender he initially appeared to be.

Then 2006, 2007, and 2010 were all worse than the preceding years. This pattern was interrupted by an aborted rebound in late 2008 and early 2009. Injuries over the year took their toll.

But the main problem is that Duke has less speed and power than the average pitcher, so he needs to use finesse and “location” to get outs. This was an advantage in the early going, when no one knew him. But he’s now a tired subject, because unless he’s at his very best, he’s eminently hittable.

So where does Duke now stand? Based on ERAs to date, the Pirates’ 2011 rotation should be James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Brian Burres, and Paul Maholm. Maholm makes the cut, Duke doesn’t (If one used FIPs, one would put Maholm ahead of Karstens and Burres, and possibly Ohlendorf).

As a third year “arbitration” player, someone of Duke’s seniority would probably command a salary of over $5 million. That would suggest that he’s a serviceable, though moderately below average starter. But he’s actually now of “replacement,” not below average, caliber. A low budget team like the Pirates can’t afford this from one of their highest paid players.

Suppose Duke were willing to take a pay cut to $1-2 million. Could he be brought back as a reliever/situational starter? Not really, because his profile is all wrong.

Some of the weaker Pirate pitchers such as Dan McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and even (to a certain extent) Paul Maholm, have what I call a “last inning problem.” That is, they will pitch well for X innings, then crumble in the X plus first. In that case, managing them consists of determining what X is, and keeping them within that limit.

Duke, on the other hand, has a “first” inning problem, the first could well be his worst. If he survives it and settles down, he can pitch well for most of the remainder of the game. Last night, he didn’t.

In a starter, this is acceptable in a mild form (the Duke of early 2009). He’ll give up one or two runs in the first two innings, no more than one more by the sixth, and possibly work the seventh or eight.

But this is unacceptable in a reliever, for whom the first inning is usually the last inning. If such a person gives up a run, say every other time he takes the mound, that leads to probable defeat.

Duke was the star of a promising but ill-fated (2006) rotation consisting of himself, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. The latter two had to be sent down to the minors, then traded away (although Gorzelanny is now prospering in his home town of Chicago).

It’s now time to say goodbye to Duke (and absorb Maholm into the new rotation mentioned above.) In doing so, the Pirates will say goodbye to what has been a major liability for the past half decade, and hopefully move on to a new start.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a cellar-dwelling team for as long as most fans remember. But often, in September, they have their moment of glory by taking three games from a division leading team in PNC Park.

This is what may be happening now, against the Atlanta Braves. A win tonight would result in a sweep. Even a loss would not change the fact that the Pirates have already clinched the three game series.

In 2006, the Pirates swept the New York Mets in three games at home, thereby delaying their clinching of the division. Two of the winners were lefties Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. In the third game, Tom Gorzelanny, also a southpaw, started, but was rescued by a “committee” of  relievers, with closer Matt Capps getting the win.

Last year, the Bucs took three out of four at home from the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Paul Maholm, Dan McCutchen, and Zach Duke all pitched good games, but only Duke got a win; the other two were “no decisions” for the two starters and split 1-1.

The remaining game was pitched by a committee, with Jeff Karstens being lifted after three innings, Donnie Veal getting the win in a 3-1 game, and three more relievers protecting the lead.

On the other side was a reliever named James McDonald (traded by the Dodgers to the Pirates in July 2010 as partial consideration for reliever Octavio Dotel).

Monday night, Brian Burres put up one of his better starts against the Braves, giving up only one run in six innings (This is his third quality start, giving up a total of four runs in nineteen innings, all at home.). Even the Pirates were good enough to score three runs off Tommy Hanson, resulting in a win.

Last night, James McDonald pitched seven scoreless innings, including finding his way out of a couple of jams. Veteran Tim Hudson put up only six blank frames, and then came apart in the seventh, to the tune of five runs, leading to a 5-0 victory for the home team.

In his best three (home) games, against the Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins, and Atlanta Braves, McDonald has given up one run in twenty innings. But his five inning, five-run start against the Mets, though technically in PNC Park, was of “away” game quality, and his four away games have been (mostly) this bad.

The last game of the current series features Zach Duke, the hero of the previous two series. Paul Maholm will open the next one.

In the two earlier years, the losses to the Pirates were just speed bumps on the way to the division leadership for the Mets and the Dodgers. This year, though, the impact on Atlanta may be more meaningful.

They’ve already lost their division lead as a result of the past two losses. Another loss tonight could push them down into a tie for the wild card if San Francisco wins.

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Fantasy Baseball’s Pitching Line of the Week:

Paul Maholm (SP-PIT) 

9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, W

Paul Maholm, beneficiary of the Pirates unusual offensive barrage on Sunday, pitched the team to a 9-0 victory over the Houston Astros. Maholm pitched a complete game shutout, allowing three hits, no walks and struck out one. The win marked Pittsburgh’s first shutout of the 2010 season, who has surrendered 489 runs to opponents thus far, second to only the Arizona Diamondbacks (524).

Prior to Sunday’s winning effort, Maholm was just 5-7 in 18 starts for the Pirates with a 4.37 ERA. The twenty-eight year old Maholm is currently striking out a career low 4.8 batters per nine innings and is walking 3.43 batters per nine, the most since his 2006 season.

Maholm was taken by the Pittsburgh Pirates with the eighth overall pick in the first round of the 2003 MLB Amateur Draft out of Mississippi State University. He debuted for the Pirates against the Milwaukee Brewers on August 30, 2005, pitched eight shutout innings and earned his first career victory. 

In 2007, Paul Maholm won a career high 10 games, lost a career high 15 games and finished the season with a 5.27 ERA. Maholm’s best season in Pittsburgh came in 2008 when the southpaw finished 9-9 with career bests in ERA (3.71), strikeouts per nine (6.06) and walks surrendered per nine innings (2.75). 

Maholm features a fastball that hits 88-89 MPH (with the wind at his back), a curveball, slider and changeup in his modest repertoire. 

I can’t help to wonder what his career numbers would look like if he were playing for any other team in baseball.

Paul Maholm is currently owned in 17% of Y! leagues. 

The “Double Dipper” is a starting pitcher who will get two starts in the same week. Each Sunday we will preview top three options in each league and highlight streaming options for players owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.

The No Brainers in the NL:

Chris Carpenter/STL ( vs. PHI, @ CHC): Back to his self after two consecutive losses.

Ubaldo Jimenez/COL (@ FLA, @ PHI): Nice and rested. 

Clayton Kershaw/LAD (vs. SFG, vs. NYM): Only lasted 4.1 innings last outing. Don’t be scared.

Tim Lincecum/SFG (@ LAD, @ ARI): 2-0, 15:3 K:BB in last two trips

The No Brainers in the AL:

Phil Hughes/NYY (vs. LAA, vs. KC): Monitor to be sure they don’t skip him.

Matt Garza/TB (@ BAL, @ CLE): Three of last four starts were QS.

Daisuke Matsusaka/BOS (@ OAK, @ SEA): Two strong match-ups

Warning: Streaming can be lethal. The following are owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.

Tommy Hunter/TEX (@ DET, vs. LAA): Hunter is 6-0 in eight starts. Ride it.

Kris Medlen/ATL (vs. SD, @ FLA): Solid ratios and two decent match-ups

Madison Bumgarner/SFG (@ LAD, @ ARI): 2-0 in last two, allowing only one ER and logging a 11:3 K:BB ratio.

R.A. Dickey/NYM (@ ARI, @ LAD): Lost last two, but no support.

Daniel Hudson/CHW (@ SEA, @ OAK): Tons of K potential on MLB’s hottest team.

Don’t Touch ‘Em

J.D. Martin, Blake Hawksworth, Jeff Karstens, Luis Atilano

Who will win the pitching duel of the week: Lincecum or Kershaw?

Who will be the best 2-Start Pitcher owned in 50% or less in week 16?

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Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Blog, MLB, Two Start Pitchers, Double Dippers, Fonzy Scheme, Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants, Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers, Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies, Chris Carpenter, St. Lois Cardinals, Phil Hughes, New York Yankees, Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays, Tommy Hunter, Texas Rangers, R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, Daniel Hudson, Chicago White Sox, Madison Bumgarner, Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com