Tag: Martin Prado

MLB Predictions: 10 Reasons Dan Uggla Could be Dark Horse of 2011 NL MVP Race

The addition of Dan Uggla was the biggest move for the Atlanta Braves this offseason. Uggla has shown great power during his time in the majors, as has hit 154 homers in five seasons, which comes out to an average of 30.8 homers per year. He has also racked up 465 RBIs during his career at an average of 93 a season.

The Braves may have picked Uggla up at the height of his career, as he had his best year to date in 2010, hitting career highs in average (.287), homers(33), and RBIs (105) among others, and will be just 31 when the season starts.

Uggla may be the key to the Braves’ season, as he is hoping to provide them the power they have so desperately needed, especially from the right side. Here are 10 reasons why Uggla could go from the Braves’ MVP to the National League’s MVP.

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Atlanta Braves: Martin Prado’s Big Move

Martin Prado was as valuable as anyone in baseball to his team in the first half of the season in 2010 playing second base.

His MVP-caliber season was derailed in the second half as injuries kept him out of the lineup for a stretch in August as well as the playoffs, as the Atlanta Braves were knocked out in the first round by the eventual World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants.

Prado was elected to his first All-Star game last year as a reserve at second base, but now will find himself playing either left field or third (depending upon Chipper Jones’ rehabilitation), because of the trade for and now contract extension to Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins.

I want to say that I thank Prado for his willingness to do what’s best for the team, especially after being its best player for the first half of the year this past season.

Prado hit .307 in each of the past two seasons with homers jumping up from 11 in 2009 to 15 in 2010. Prado hit .325 and was leading the National League going into the All-Star game until a slight slump, along with some injuries, led him to hit just .278 after the break.

Prado has been used throughout his pro career at either third or second, so there will likely be a bit of an adjustment period for him, which may hinder him slightly at the plate. Prado is one of the best pure ballplayers I’ve seen in recent years, though, so any hindrance should be short-lived and he should be back to what we saw last year in no time.

The Braves are counting on Prado to be the catalyst for this lineup in the leadoff spot and for him to learn to play left field on an everyday basis.   

While I’m not expecting him to hit .320 over the year, I would like to see him continue to hit over .300 with his good on-base percentage.

Prado is extremely valuable to a Braves team that lacks a true leadoff hitter and an injury or a slow start for him would really set this team back a bit.

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Dan Uggla Traded to the Atlanta Braves: Fantasy Baseball Impact

It’s official…the baseball offseason is finally under way. 

With GM meetings going on in Orlando, the action finally got started today with the Marlins finding a trading partner for Dan Uggla. 

Jerry Crasnick is reporting via Twitter that the Atlanta Braves have acquired Uggla for utility man Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn. 

So how does this impact his fantasy value for 2011?

As an owner of Uggla in my most important keeper league, I have obviously been quite interested in his landing spot. 

Sadly, the Rockies did not revive their long-rumored interest in the stocky second baseman.  

Atlanta is about as uninteresting as a destination can be for Uggla in that it probably does not significantly affect his value one way or the other. 

On the plus side, Turner Field in Atlanta yields a few more home runs than Sun Life Stadium in Miami, but Uggla’s splits do not indicate that his home ballpark as a Marlin was holding him back in a big way.  

In just under 3,000 at-bats over the last five seasons, Uggla hit .261 at home and only .266 on the road with 78 home runs at home and 76 on the road.  Moreover, RBI opportunities and run totals do not figure to receive a significant boost by going from Florida’s lineup to Atlanta’s as the two were fairly similar offensive teams in 2010.

The most important consideration may be Uggla’s playing time.  You have to think that Atlanta would not trade for Uggla unless they planned on him being an everyday player, but with Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Alex Gonzalez, and rookie Freddie Freeman sure to see substantial infield time, it is possible that Uggla may see a few more days off than fantasy owners would like. 

There has been some talk of Uggla seeing time in the outfield, but as big of a defensive liability as he is, you should not count on added outfield eligibility in 2011. 

Of course, all the playing time worries will surely be assuaged when Chipper goes down in Spring Training, Prado moves permanently to third, and Uggla becomes the only second baseman to hit 30 home runs in five consecutive seasons (he is already the only one to do it in four straight).

Ultimately, the pros and cons of Uggla are the same as they were yesterday.  Whether in Florida or Atlanta, he is still a 30-homer guy that could hit .245 or .285. 


Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is counting down the days until he can do baseball mock drafts in class.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

[Find the original article here]

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Atlanta Braves 2011 Ideal Starting Lineup

To the best of my ability, I will lay out what I believe will idealize the Braves 2011 lineup.

I think there are a few things to be changed from the roster of the previous year, so here is what I believe will give the Braves a good postseason run.

And hopefully they’ll trample those Giants along the way.

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Atlanta Braves Offseason Needs: Offense and an Old Guy

When the Atlanta Braves 2010 came to a close a couple weeks back at the hands of the eventual National League Champion San Francisco Giants, there was a lot of mourning at the Britt (that’s me) household.

I was resigned to filling out college applications and (gasp) putting school over baseball for a couple of weeks as I bitterly refused to watch the LCS’s for the thought of what might of been had Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Billy Wagner and Kris Medlen been good-to-go for the first round of the playoffs.

What’s that?

I sound like a bitter fan of a team that dons blue caps with red “C”s.

Well…I guess I shouldn’t digress.

But, now that the World Series has begun and the “Least Annoying Team Left in the Playoffs” Award-winning Texas Rangers have a chance to knock off the team that broke my heart in the opening week-or-so of October, I’m feeling up to digging back into the sport that consumes my nights from about 7-10 during the summer.

As one looks at the Atlanta Braves’ roster, one notices that there are only a couple major (as there have been for the past couple of offseasons) holes to be filled.

One of which is the lack of some “grizzled old veteran” in the bullpen.

With the swagger of Billy Wagner headed for retirement greener Virginia pastures and Takashi “can’t-pitch-back-to-back-nights” Saito getting his (contract-mandated, mind you) release papers in the past couple of days, the average age of the bullpen lost a few months.

I’m not saying that the Braves have to go out and sign some Arthur Rhodes-looking 40-some-year-old just for the heck of it—don’t get that impression, at all.

I’m just saying that with the lack of experience down in the ‘pen (the most experienced guy that’s going to be relied upon next season is Peter Moylan, who has all of three FULL seasonsin the bigs), someone like Joe Beimel or Grant Balfour (both free-agents-to-be) could be helpful to the under-30 quartet of O’Flaherty, Venters, Dunn and Kimbrel that will be shutting the door in late-inning situations in 2010.

Oh, and that leads to this prediction: Kyle Farnsworth won’t be back.

The other major thing that needs help is the rotation.

Wait…this isn’t the 2008-09 offseason (isn’t it nice not to have to think about, though, isn’t it…hey, you have to find positives when you’re watching Jeff Francoeur riding the pine in the World Series before any of the other Baby Braves).

Short of dumping Kenshin Kawakami, that was a total and complete (poorly executed, I might add) joke.

But really, that only other major red flag being thrown up on the Braves’ current roster is in the outfield.

We can all celebrate now that Melky Cabrera had been given his pink slip…but (once Rick Ankiel’s option is declined) with Jason Heyward, Nate McLouth and Matt Diaz looking like the options right now, there needs to be some work.

Options range from Jayson Werth to Colby Rasmus (if he is made available, he’s a perfect fit) to Wilkin Ramirez (you know, that last-second deadline acquisition who didn’t do too badly with Gwinnett after coming over).

I’m only touching on that here to tease a slideshow coming up (I know, a real d-bag move).

The one thing that is for sure is this: the Braves weren’t that bad of a team running on three legs down the stretch.

One piece thrown in the mix here and there makes this team a pretty big threat in the National League in 2011.

After all, Hanson, Hudson, and a rejuvenated Lowe (no Jurrjens, think: trade-bait) are all penciled into manager Fredi Gonzalez’s rotation next season and there’s going to be an even slightly more matured Jason Heyward somewhere in the lineup.

All I can say right now that’s a for sure: Spring Training can’t get here fast enough.

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MLB Playoff Predictions: Brook Conrad’s The Key To Atlanta Braves’ Playoff Hopes

For a guy that was signed as a Minor League Free Agent prior to the 2009 season, Brooks Conrad sure has accomplished a lot for the Braves in 130 games.

In addition to accumulating a ton of nicknames (“Raw Dog” and “Dirt” being the most notable), the Magic Man from Monte Vista (that one is mine) has been involved in some of the more memorable moments in recent Braves history.

From his first Major League homer in Washington July 3, 2009 that gave the Braves a lead, to his “disappearing ball trick” in Chicago and two pinch-hit grand slams this season (including the walk-off slam off Francisco Cordero earlier this season), Conrad has left Braves fans with a menagerie of moments that will be embedded in their minds for a long while to come.

But now, the 5’11” infielder is going to be counted on for a lot more than coming through in close-and-late situations.

With Martin Prado (you know, the guy who replaced the guy with the torn ACL…Chipper Jones, or whatever his name is) out for the remainder of the season (postseason included if the Braves get to that step), the lifetime back-up is going to be called upon to man the hot corner for the Atlanta Braves.

Number 26 has accumulated a grand total of 218 ABs in four seasons between Oakland and Atlanta and has posted a career line of .225/.290/.450…that and a -.09 UZR for his career at third (although I’ll vouch for some very nice plays at the hot corner) reeks of a grossly below-average MLB player.

But, when you look solely at his 145 at-bats in 2010 and, overall, very impressive .241/.317/.497 line…you have to like the potential production in the season’s final series (and, if those results are indeed fruitful, the postseason).

Small sample size?

Most definitely (after all, he hit is first non-“latter than 7th inning” homer on September 29…that tells you when–and how much–he’s been playing).

But, when the pressure’s been highest, the “Raw Dog” has been at his best (see his 1.43 Clutch–a FanGraphs stat that tabulates how much better or worse a player is in high-leverage situations…which would be good for 7th in baseball if he had enough plate appearances–and that is most definitely what he’ll be facing over the next couple of weeks (hopefully batting behind either Derrek Lee or Brian McCann in the five hole *cough**cough*).

While “Dirt” has been a vital cog in a Braves club that has become know for the come-from-behind victory, he’s now going to be placed with the job of putting the Braves ahead in the early stages of the Braves’ coming games.

With what he has done this season, I’m comfortable voicing my confidence (that and $1 will get you a cup of coffee) in the 30-year-old being able to produce over the course of the Braves’ (hopefully…as this will mean a World Series) next four series.

However, it’s going to come down to him being confident…and, as Mark Twain once said “A man cannot be comfortable without his own approval.”

But with the support all around him (see this Mark Bowman article)…I don’t see any reason as to why he can’t approve of his own “comfortability” (experience be damned).

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Atlanta Braves: Martin Prado’s Season-Ending Injury a Big Blow to Playoff Hunt

The Atlanta Braves are limping towards the finish line and on Tuesday they got some news that’s really not helping their cause.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, Braves 2B/3B Martin Prado will be done for the season with a hip pointer and torn oblique muscle.

Prado originally suffered the injuries on Monday night against the Florida Marlins, when he made a diving catch in the fourth inning.

This is a massive, massive blow for the Braves.

Prado had a slash line of .307/.350/.459 with 15 HRs, 40 doubles, and 184 hits. His 184 hits were second in the National League.

Not only is losing Prado a blow offensively at the top of the Braves lineup, but losing him defensively hurts as well; Prado was already filling in at third for the injured Chipper Jones.

At this rate, the Braves might have to bring back Ken Oberkfell or Terry Pendleton.

It looks like the Braves are going to have to roll with Brooks Conrad at third the rest of the way. Conrad, who is probably best known for hitting a walk-off grand slam off Francisco Cordero in the Braves’ wild 10-9 win over the Cincinnati Reds on May 20, is hitting just .239 with seven HRs in 138 at-bats this season.

Bobby Cox did mention that Troy Glaus could be a possibility at third but would only be used in an emergency situation. With his knees completely shot, I can’t imagine that happening.

The Braves entered Tuesday night’s action having a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the wild-card race, and with now Prado, Jones, and Jair Jurrjens spent and a starting rotation and bullpen on their last legs, it will be very interesting to see if the Braves can somehow hold on to a playoff spot.

Prado is expected to recover in about two months and should be ready for spring training in 2011.

 

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Atlanta Braves’ Batting Champ? The Unlikely Success of Omar Infante

It’s one of the most amazing stories of the 2010 baseball season. Omar Infante, a career utility player, has stepped into a starting role with the Atlanta Braves and is threatening to become one of the most unlikely batting title winners in baseball history.

On July 30th, the Braves All-Star second baseman, Martin Prado, broke his finger sliding into home plate.   Prado landed on the 15-day DL and Infante was inserted into the starting lineup at second base.

Since that day Infante has hit .363 with a .400 on-base and a .513 slugging percentage. 

He’s scored 29 runs, hit five home runs and thrown in three stolen bases to boot.  Since July 29th, he’s had 23 multi-hit games and at one point, hit safely in 14 straight. 

On August 10th, Chipper Jones was lost for the season when he tore his ACL making a dazzling play at third base.  The injury assured that Infante would remain at second base and Prado would play third upon his return. 

Infante has been an absolute life-saver for the Braves, playing in every game since that July 29th date.  In all but two of those games he’s batted lead-off and helped Atlanta maintain their NL East lead.   

Even before Prado and Chipper’s injury, Infante was a valuable asset for the Braves.  In the 73 prior games, Infante started 40 of them, playing five different positions: 2B, SS, 3B, LF and RF.  He hit .330 in those games, including a .429 mark in July.

With Infante‘s insertion into the starting role and his continued prowess at the plate, his chances of winning the batting title have become a distinct possibility.

In order to qualify for the batting title, a player must record 502 plate appearances.  Infante is presently hitting a NL best .343 and  stands at 393 PAs with 25 games remaining on the Braves schedule.  If he continues his pace of 4.6 plate appearances per game, achieved since he became a full-time starter, Infante will finish with 512 plate appearances.  He’ll obviously have to play every game to make this mark, but even if he doesn’t he can still win the batting title.

How you ask? 

Well it’s simple.  If Infante finishes with say, 490 appearances, Major League Baseball will add 12 at-bats to his total and recalculate his batting average. These at-bats are considered hitless ones.

Tony Gwynn won a batting title in this manner in 1996 when he recorded 498 plate appearances and 451 at-bats.  His average of .364 was reduced to .359 and he still led the National League. 

Prior to this season, Infante was only a .264 career hitter (though he did hit .305 last year).  The important fact to remember with Infante though, is that he is only 28 years old.  Players often reach their peak around that age, a fact that’s even more true for Infante, who’s body has less wear than others because of his reduced role in prior seasons. 

Carlos Gonzalez, with an assist from Coors field, is Infante’s main competition.  He’s hitting .337 to Infante’s .343.  Joey Votto is a distant third at .321. 

It’s difficult to determine who the most unlikely batting title winner in NL history is. 

Al Oliver, a name few know, won the title with Montreal in 1982.  But he hit over .300 eleven times in his career.  Another Atlanta Brave, Ralph Garr won the title in 1974 (Garr was also 28 when he accomplished the feat).  Rico Carty also did it for the Braves in 1970.  Very few people outside of Atlanta, remember these names. 

In the American League, Bill Mueller hit .326 in 2003.  He was a .286 career hitter before that.   Mueller was also out of baseball three seasons later. 

The only distant comparison for Infante is Snuffy Stirnweiss.  Stirnweiss played for the Yankees in 1945 when baseball was severely depleted by the departure of players to World War II.  Stirnweiss hit .309 in 1945. He never hit above .256 again and hit only .268 for his career. 

 

With Infante‘s hitting showing no signs of slowing down and a decent shot at 502 plate appearances, he has a very real chance to become one of the most unlikely batting champions in baseball history 

 

I’d love to hear some readers thoughts about whether or not Infante might be the most unlikely batting champ in the long history of baseball and whether or not he has a legitimate chance at the feat.

You can view the history of NL and AL batting champs, going all the way back to when Levi Meyerle hit .492 in 1871, here

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Atlanta Braves: Benching Omar Infante for Troy Glaus a Foolish Move

The Atlanta Braves should think twice before they make a move that will weaken their chances at winning a second World Series title.

While nothing has happened yet, the stars are certainly aligned for Mr. May, Troy Glaus, to replace All-Star Omar Infante in the lineup at third base, which would bump Martin Prado back to second base.

Since Atlanta acquired first baseman Derrek Lee from the Chicago Cubs, Glaus has rested his ailing knees and returned to play three games for the Gwinnett Braves at the hot corner this week.

During those three games, May’s NL Player of the Month has been raking at the plate, racking up two home runs, seven RBI’s, and five hits in 10 at-bats at the Triple-A level.

However, while those numbers and Glaus’ improving health may impress GM Frank Wren and manager Bobby Cox enough for them to make him the starting third baseman in place of the injured Chipper Jones, it’s a bad move.

And I’m not saying that merely based on his .174 batting average and two home runs over the last 46 games.

Glaus should not re-enter the daily lineup because Atlanta cannot afford to take super utility man Omar Infante out of the daily lineup.

According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Infante has a .381 batting average in 27 consecutive starts and has shown some uncharacteristic power recently, hitting five home runs in his last 17 games.

Additionally, Infante has been consistently good in 2010, unlike Glaus, posting a .365 batting average in 65 games since June 1, which would put him in contention for the batting title if he had enough at-bats to be eligible.

Defensively, Infante has been solid, committing only 12 errors despite lining up at five different positions for the 2010 Braves.

Most importantly, Infante has committed only four errors in 99 chances at second base, his current position, this season.

As for Glaus’ fielding skills, both he and Prado have the same career fielding percentage at third base (.952), but you would have to think that the younger Prado would be more mobile and agile than Glaus and his ailing knees.

Granted, the Braves’ bench is significantly weaker without Infante and losing the reliable guy who can play almost anywhere should a starter go down with an injury hurts the bench.

However, Atlanta’s subs are still strong, boasting the likes of Melky Cabrera, Eric Hinske, David Ross, and the team’s best clutch hitter in Brooks Conrad.

In addition to those guys, Glaus would provide a power bat off the bench and could serve as the designated hitter should the Braves advance to the World Series.

As far as the rest of the season is concerned, Atlanta hopes that Glaus will once again prove his doubters wrong by playing good defense at third base and being a key bat in the Braves’ lineup down the stretch in September and potentially October.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, hope should be a last resort in a pennant race.

If the Braves want to hold off the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race, they need to go with the best guys they have—a strategy that finds Omar Infante in the everyday lineup and Troy Glaus on the bench.

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The One Man Who Can Stop Albert Pujols From Winning the Triple Crown

During Monday night’s St. Louis Cardinals loss to the last-place (and worst record in baseball) Pittsburgh Pirates, Albert Pujols was 3-for-5 with a double, raising his batting average to .322.

I know this stat is not important to saber heads (please bear with us), but for this argument it is imperative.

Meanwhile, on the west coast, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto went 1-for-4 in a 13-5 drubbing by the now offensively resurgent San Francisco Giants. That effort dropped Votto’s season average to .323, a single point above Pujols.

With Pujols ahead in the National League in home runs (33) and RBI (92), the batting crown is the only leg of the Triple Crown he does lead.

Adan Dunn, with 31 jacks, and Votto, with 29 dingers, are right behind Phat Albert in the HR race. And with 86 RBI, Votto is six back of Pujols, I believe Albert is safe in both power departments. He is on a roll with the power and when that happens, usually a tidal wave of home runs (and RBI) ensue.

In fact, Albert’s August barrage of nine home runs, 20 RBI while hitting .436 is what has put him back into the Triple Crown race.

While Votto is leading with a .323 average entering Wednesday’s games, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is currently hitting .319 while Atlanta’s Martin Prado is at .317. Both could also end up with a higher average than Pujols in his quest to become baseball’s first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastremski in 1967*.

*If you have never looked into Yaz’ stretch run in 1967, when he was not only attempting to win the Triple Crown, but more importantly, trying to lead Boston to the AL Pennant, you need to look into it. It is perhaps the best clutch performance of any player of all time.  

While fending off Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago (what no Yankees?) in a four-team race for the pennant, Yaz went 7-for-8 in his final two games with a double, HR, and six RBI including a 4-for-4 performance on the final day. During the September stretch run, Yaz hit .417 with nine homers, but hit .541 with four homers and 14 RBI over the last 10 games.

It was truly a remarkable performance.

Pujols is starting to turn it on with his incredible month of August, but it is probably the batting average category which could forestall any thoughts of a Triple Crown.

But despite all of Albert’s greatness, there is one guy who can keep Albert from winning the Triple Crown. Joey Votto, right?

Wrong.

It is Omar Infante of the Atlanta Braves.

What? Yes, you saw it correctly. Infante is the one player who can keep Albert Pujols from winning this years Triple Crown.

Entering today, Infante is hitting .349 this season as a utility player for the first place Braves, and was having such a fine season at the break, he even made his first All-Star team.

But he only has 342 plate appearances thus far, and with the Braves already playing 126 games, Infante currently needs 391 to qualify (3.1 Plate Appearances per team game played).

Omar is not just a utility player anymore, and has been a regular in Bobby Cox’s lineup since late July. And Omar is not slowing down now that he is a regular. He has hit a robust .370/.400/.560/.960 OPS clip for August (37-100) with four home runs.

This is coming off him hitting .429 in July (27-63).

With Atlanta only 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia, Cox has no reason not to play the red-hot Infante every day. With Chipper Jones out for the season, Infante is now the starting second baseman, with Martin Prado moving from second over to third.

Even when Troy Glaus comes back, I still see Infante in the lineup every day until the end of the season. 

So let’s do the math.

Infante has 342 PA, but needs 502 to qualify for the batting title. For a conservative estimate, lets give him four PA for each of the next 36 games the Braves have left.

That will allow for some games of five PA, while he may sit a game to get some rest. He may even be dropped in the batting order, who knows? He has hit in every spot in the lineup this season but fifth, but has been in the leadoff spot the last couple weeks.

That gives him another 144 plate appearances (36 games x 4 PA per = 144), and add that to his current 342 would give Infante 486 PA for the season. That is still 16 PA short of qualifying for the title.

Lets also say that Infante (even after his very hot July and August), hits only around .320 the rest of the way. Infante does not walk much (another no-no for any saber head HOF consideration), so lets say all his 144 PA become actual at bats.  

If Infante gets 46 hits in his 144 remaining at bats (a .319 average), he will end up .33978 for the season (158 for 465). This leads Votto and Pujols at their current averages for the batting title.

But under our situation, Infante is still 16 PA short of a title. This is where playing with the numbers comes into play. MLB rules regarding a batting title state in order to become eligible, a player must accumulate 3.1 PA for every team games played, or 502 PA.

But if the player with the highest average in a league fails to meet the minimum plate-appearance requirement, the remaining at-bats until qualification are hypothetically considered hitless at-bats; if his recalculated batting average still tops the league, he is awarded the title.

Thus if we give Infante an additional 16 “hitless” at bats to a total of 481, he would then have a batting average of .32848, still about five points higher than Votto or Pujols is hitting right now. Reduce Infante by one hit, and his average would then be .32640. Reduce by another hit (only 156 hits/481 AB) would reduce his average to .32432, still slightly above where Votto and Pujols are.

This tactic of adding “hitless” at bats was started in 1967, and was implemented most recently in 1996 when Tony Gwynn won the batting title while only having 498 PA.

I believe Infante will hit around .320 (or better) the rest of the season, and pose an issue for the batting title and possible Pujols Triple Crown. At the end of the season with an average in the .326 to .333 range…after the hitless at bats are added.

This is all moot of course if Votto or Adam Dunn, Carlos Gonzalez, or even Martin Prado gets hot at their specialties and pushes Pujols out of one or more of the other two categories. 

Throw in a Cincinnati and St. Louis Divisional race down the stretch and the last six weeks become even more interesting for Pujols, Votto, and the rest of the National League.

 

 

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