Kuzul

The Cincinnati Reds are getting no love.

In the most recent season outlook, Grantland writer Ben Lindbergh’s NLC Preview uses a lot of data and makes mathematical projections, and not even the numbers are improving this team’s outlook. In case you haven’t got around to it, here’s an excerpt on why we can expect the Reds to suck in 2015:

Projected Record and Over/Under: 76-86 — PUSH. With [Joey] Votto injured, Ryan Ludwick and [Jay] Bruce banged up and slumping, [Brandon] Phillips declining, [Billy] Hamilton disappointing and [Zack] Cozart being Cozart, the Reds had one of the weakest lineups in baseball last season, despite [Devin] Mesoraco’s breakout and Todd Frazier’s dependable bat. Votto’s return, Bruce’s likely rebound and Marlon Byrd’s arrival should restore the scoring to a respectable level.

If GM Walt Jocketty keeps the roster intact, the Reds could rival the [Milwaukee] Brewers, but if he resigns himself to a rebuild and deals [Johnny] Cueto and Byrd at the deadline, Reds fans will be in for some bad baseball in the second half.

According to this outlook, if everything goes in the Reds’ favor, they should be good enough to compete with the Brewers.

It’s hard to knock something so objective. But, you clicked to read why we should be optimistic, and there are a few reasons, actually. The Grantland article makes several predictions that, if true, would probably cause the Reds to perform as poorly as everyone thinks they will. 

First, the article assumes Votto will miss about 40 days. That would be crippling. Second, the projections say Raisel Iglesias will finish with a 4.93 ERA. And finally, the rotation includes Jason Marquis right now, not Homer Bailey. While this is accurate, it shouldn’t be the case going past April.

The following is a short list of reasons to be optimistic for the Reds’ 2015 season:

1. The team has proven MLB talent. 

No one outside of Cincinnati cares that an almost identical roster managed 90-to-90-plus in three of the last five seasons. But the irrelevance doesn’t make those feats invalid. The roster is full of talent. 

Hardly anyone is talking about what the Reds offense could look like. But ESPN’s Doug Glanville is. He recently pegged the Reds offense as No. 2 in the National League in a live broadcast on SportsCenter.

With the arrival of Byrd, and hopefully prolonged health for the annual contributors, it’s hard not to be excited about the potential of this lineup, which features speed, patience and some power.

Everyone knows what they can expect from a healthy Votto, Phillips and Bruce. And then, of course, there’s Frazier and Mesoraco, who became contributors last season. But consider how the bench has performed this spring:

Brennan Boesch: .382/.379/.655
Chris Dominguez: .327/.333/.618
Kristopher Negron: .385/.475/.577

There are suitable options off the bench, a luxury the Reds haven’t enjoyed in a long time, minus former fan-favorite Chris Heisey, who is no longer with the team.

The Reds currently boast an MLB top-10 offense this spring, and at +36, only three teams in all of baseball have a better run differential. It’s not necessarily optimism at this point; it’s just what is physically happening.

2. The starting rotation has performed well this spring.

This is not by any means is an indicator for success. But it’s a lot better than a questionable rotation getting shelled before the season starts. The following is a list of ERAs currently held by the starting rotation:

Cueto: 3.86
Mike Leake: 0.64
Anthony DeSclafani: 3.51
Marquis: 3.46
Iglesias: 3.68

And one unforgettable detail is that this isn’t the 2015 rotation, just the one for April. The Reds still stand to gain Bailey and his 3.71 ERA from last year. His ZiPS projection is 3.54 in 173 innings, via Rotochamp.com, where you can see it next to every other projection, most of which all predict a good season out of Bailey.

We know what we’ll get from the front of the rotation because we’ve seen Cueto, Leake and Bailey for years. We know how good they are. We have absolutely no idea how MLB-good DeSclafani will be, or Iglesias.

I take their projections with a grain of salt only because they virtually have no MLB data to base anything on. They’re question marks. If even just one of them can replicate what Alfredo Simon gave them last season, the Reds will stand a good chance of winning four out of every five games.

3. 2014 can’t happen again.

Nothing analytical about this point, just pure subjective assertion. Everyone’s over the injury talk, and they should be—we’re like a week from Opening Day. Move on, but don’t forget a pivotal lesson we all learned: injuries to critical players have critical consequences.

We watched a team go from winning 90 games in 2013 to winning 76 games in 2014, with virtually an identical roster. Regardless of popular tough-guyisms bestowed upon us by local media, a team isn’t going to overcome the loss of that many vital contributors in a season.

Even local media that dismissed injury as a reason for 2014 are finding it harder to validate their previous convictions. Take this dramatic 180 from The Cincinnati Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty in his morning blog just this week:

I saw two more entities pick ’em to finish 5th in the Central. That’d be last, scorekeepers. SI.com and W. Leitch think that way. Leitch figures they’ll win 74. Ouch. I’m not known for bubbling optimism, and I’m no FanBoy, but … doesn’t anyone else believe this team can win 85-ish, not barter Cueto at the deadline and at least keep us interested through Labor Day? They can’t possibly be as hurt as last year, right? Jay Bruce had an aberration last season, not a definition, yes? Joey Votto will be back to his new self, getting OB 40 percent of the time, depending on others to provide the semi-meaningless RBI, yeah?

Why no love for the Redlegs?

Why no love for the Redlegs? A great question, as there were probably readers asking Daugherty the same thing last September when he wrote this:  

Do not go into the offseason believing this year was an injury-fueled aberration.

Do not believe that a healthy Joey Votto would have made a 15-game difference. Or even a 10-game swing. Ten games better would still put the Reds a game behind Pittsburgh, for the second wild card.

Do not think the season would have been a roaring success with Mat Latos healthy in April and May, with Homer Bailey whole now. Believing that health is the answer is a fool’s game. Who’s healthy this year might not be next year. 

This isn’t about any one columnist. I’m simply making the point that not even the most ardent and unforgiving of critics last year can stand by what they wrote. And we shouldn’t either.

The negative outlook surrounding the Reds, mathematically, incorporates data from a time when it didn’t matter. National analysts and computers only care about the data, which is never a bad thing. But that’s data from a bombed and depleted 76-win Reds team. That’s data on two pitchers, Iglesias and DeSclafani, who have virtually no MLB data on them. 

I think the outlook for this season is grossly underrated. And on that note, I must defer to Chuck D and Flavor Flav.

Stats courtesy of MLB.com, unless noted otherwise.

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Spring training is the perfect time of year for the little things to be absolutely blown out of proportion. This team is doing well and this team is struggling, which means the regular season will be like that.

Very often, though, the spring is a time to iron out the kinks, and the struggles in March are completely forgotten by the middle of the summer. Teams like the Cleveland Indians and San Francisco Giants have been awful this spring but are still favorites to make the playoffs this year.

But for every team that overcomes the problems on display in spring, there is one that ignored the warning signs and watches the struggles continue deep into the season.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the more surprising teams of the past three years in MLB. Despite never developing an elite rotation, the O’s have used stellar defense and power hitting to make the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.

With Nelson Cruz, who led the American League in home runs last year, off to Seattle, Baltimore’s bats were already expected to take a hit. But the signs in spring have been worrying to say the least. Although the Orioles are third in homers with 24 so far, they are also 25th in batting average and 27th in on-base percentage.

The starting pitching issues are still there for Baltimore, and there is only so much that hitting home runs can do over the course of a 162-game season, so the poor hitting numbers aren’t a great sign for a team that hopes to take the next step this season.

The AL East isn’t the juggernaut it has been in past seasons, but something needs to be done if the Orioles are going to remain competitive and repeat the magic of last season’s run (highlights of which are in the video below).

Joey Votto

How long ago it seems the Cincinnati Reds were a dark horse pick to rally behind Joey Votto and claim the elusive World Series title the franchise hasn’t seen since 1990.

But after Votto missed 100 games last season, and the Reds finished 10 games under .500, it feels like the window might be closing on this current crop of players.

Coming into the spring, the fans were looking for signs to be optimistic. But they just haven’t been there so far. Votto, in particular, hasn’t bounced back in the way many had hoped, only hitting .250 with one home run and two RBI.

He has only played eight games so far, but the former MVP will be expected to shoulder the load for the Reds this year like he did in 2010. Highlights from that season can be seen in this highlight video, but his spring performance isn’t one that instills confidence.

While Votto’s numbers are the most likely to turn around of the players on this list, the only way the Reds return to the playoffs is if he repeats his 2010 campaign, an unlikely prospect if things continue the way they have so far.

Emilio Bonifacio

Never known as a player with the ability to tear the cover off the ball, Emilio Bonifacio has seen any hitting abilities he had completely fall by the wayside. So far this spring, the White Sox’s second baseman is hitting .097 with no RBI and five strikeouts.

The numbers are a bit deceiving, as Bonifacio still has an OBP of .243, but it is hard to ignore any player who is going to be in a regular in a lineup hitting less than .100. The White Sox will be chasing the Indians all season long and will need better production from their second baseman than what he has shown this spring.

Although a poor spring can be chalked up to just an off month, and players often turn things around once the regular season starts, Bonifacio’s numbers have been so awful that expectations are already lower than they once were.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Bonifacio wasn’t the starter to start the season, with youngster Micah Johnson hitting .455 and likely to take control of the spot. If Bonifacio does lose his spot in the starting lineup early, it could be hard to get it back at all this season.

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The dropping of the crystal ball signaled the start of 2015, officially designating the disastrous season of 2014 as last year’s news.

When we discuss the Cincinnati Reds from this juncture, we discuss a new product. The Reds lack the potent starting rotation they once had, but they do offer some offensive prowess that many fans have longed for.

The Reds welcomed the new year by finally adding the coveted left fielder, even if it didn’t quite have the luster fans hoped for. Marlon Byrd brings 25 home runs and a .445 slugging to the lineup. Does a lineup featuring Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Joey Votto, Marlon Byrd, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce inspire any more confidence?

The list of resolutions becomes obvious. The Reds don’t have any dramatic resolutions like needing to shed 20 pounds or quitting smoking—just eating healthier or volunteering more would suffice. That’s because the crux of what the Reds need is just health, especially considering the departure of No. 2 pitcher Mat Latos.

Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto officially account for new year’s resolution No. 1. Injuries can happen to everyone, but these four Reds are arguably the most important in uniform. These guys have to stay healthy if the Reds have a chance of competing in 2015. Bailey will be asked to pitch in a spot that, by now, he should be ready for. But he can’t deliver from the disabled list.

The second new year’s resolution would be a vow to get on base. The Reds finished with the third-worst OBP in baseball. When you consider the absurd amount of one-run games the Reds were in, OBP becomes even more vital. Nori Aoki would have been an immediate fix to this enormous problem, but the Reds opted for a better bat instead.

Votto’s presence will undoubtedly help the OBP, but you’d like to see guys such as Billy Hamilton, Phillips and Bruce all get their OBP closer to MLB average. Hamilton and Bruce both finished below .300. A sub-.300 OBP at the top of the lineup is crippling, so Billy Hamilton will have to grow up quick to stay there.

It’s not that the Reds weren’t making contact. Per Fangraphs.com, the Reds were No.7 in o-swing percentage, meaning balls swung on that were outside of the strike zone. They were No.1 in z-swing percentage, which accounts for balls swung inside of the strike zone. They swung a lot.

It could be a matter of plate discipline. The Reds are a very swing-happy team. Those who professionally cover the Reds often discuss Votto in a negative light, suggesting that his focus on OBP is misguided. What if the majority of Reds hitters were as selective as Votto? While it’s unrealistic to assume everyone adopt Votto’s tactics, a more selective approach seems needed for a team full of hackers.

Another resolution would be to cross the plate. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds led all of baseball with 28 runners thrown out at home. Again, considering the amount of one-run games the Reds played in, improving this is paramount. The removal of Steve Smith and the insertion of Jim Riggleman might be all it takes.

Finally, the bullpen has to be better. The Reds finished the year with the fifth-worst bullpen ERA and the second-most bullpen losses. It’s possible that between the acquisition of Raisel Iglesias and the health of Sean Marshall, this might have already been improved from last year. 

Jumbo Diaz was a genuine surprise, and Pedro Villarreal may have earned a shot at joining the bullpen in a long-term capacity with a few decent outings before the season ended. 

The Reds at least offer a more potent offensive lineup, but this was the No. 3 starting rotation ERA in baseball, which was the reason the Reds competed to the extent that they did last year. The rotation, as of right now, is still a concern, so hopefully something is done to address that prior to Opening Day.

The lineup is better. Byrd’s age is irrelevant as long as his production is there. And it is. Byrd is still hitting for power (25 home runs in 2014, 757 OPS). He also brings with him an O-WAR of 2. His overall WAR finished at 2.7.

The Reds lacked pop last season, finishing a mediocre No. 18 in team home runs. They also recorded the second-fewest hits in all of baseball. So between adding Votto and Byrd and the health of Bruce, it’s almost absurd to assume the 2015 product will play similar to the previous one. That’s a lot of offense the Reds went without.

We can’t fool ourselves, though. After Cueto, Bailey and Mike Leake, it’s pretty slim on major league-ready talent. This could be a problem if not addressed before Opening Day. Hopefully, the shiny new lineup can mitigate the loss of Latos and Simon.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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Dear Santa,

Reds fan here. We haven’t been on the greatest of terms since Clinchmas, now over four years ago. Where have you been since? And what’s with all the coal in our red stockings?

What do you think about when you’re checking your list and you get to the Cincinnati Reds? Clinchmas was amazing, but that team got swept by the Phillies. Then after a deflating 2011 season, you put Mat Latos under the tree, and we witnessed arguably the best Reds team in over a decade.

But it was weird, Santa. Joey Votto suffered then an injury that’s affecting him now, and Johnny Cueto couldn’t come home for the holidays when we needed him most.

Weren’t we good? How could our behavior have been any better?

I got over it when you gave us Shin-Soo Choo the next year. Because it was all about the lead-off man. It was awesome; Choo finished with a .423 OBP that season. The Reds had a .323 OBP for the year, No. 6 in the game. But Cueto got hurt again. We got him back just barely in time to throw him right into a one-game playoff, where he not only got shelled but created a moment that will follow Cueto back to PNC Park in every start he will make there.

You lost me there, Santa. But I sucked it up. Maybe Pittsburgh had just stacked more karma than the Reds. I know not to be envious. But after 2014, I’m struggling to find any Christmas spirit.

You know what happened. No one likes talking about it, but you know it had a lot to do with injuries and the bullpen failure. Most reasonable Reds fans will admit as much, even if the local media won’t.

But baseball doesn’t wait. And since we could no longer afford 2011’s Christmas gift, we had to trade him away, along with another starter. And now what do we do? How does a team built on its rotation, the third-best rotation in baseball, have any success without its No. 2?

C’mon, Santa. It’s all tidings and good cheer until it’s time to sit down at the arbitration table, isn’t it?

Will you please bring us something for the back of the rotation? I know the Reds have tons of minor league talent nearing ready, but there’s no reason to rush them. Aaron Harang is out there. He threw over 200 innings and cashed in a 3.75 ERA. And he only made $1 million last year. Not asking for much.

Then there’s our bullpen, which you know was naughty. To be second in bullpen losses and have the third-worst bullpen ERA is to replace your eye drops with lemon juice. I know we were bad, so can you help us be better and maybe bring us another bullpen arm? If Raisel Iglesias is all, I won’t be mad, but a middle-relief guy would be decent, and if nothing else, maybe let Sean Marshall stay healthy?

Speaking of health, can you bring two bubbles? One for Votto and one for Homer Bailey? You understand.

This last request will come as no surprise, Santa. And you already know what I’m going to ask. It’s been years since we had a good left fielder to watch on an everyday basis. Instead of bringing us some cheap knock-off, better-as-a-pinch-hitter brand, can you just get us Nori Aoki?

I don’t care about all the talk surrounding his declining power numbers, or how he hit just one home run last year. Who cares? His OBP was .349 and .353 for his career.

This is serious, Santa. Honestly, it would be cool if you got me everything else, but this is like the Nintendo 64 when it was new. You could get me all the cool stuff in the world, but without the 64 centerpiece, Christmas is ruined.

CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman says Aoki is going to get anywhere from $7 to $8 million. Is that in the budget this year?

That’s all I got, big man. I want a back-of-the-rotation veteran starter, I want a middle-relief bullpen arm and I want a left fielder. And if it’s not too much, I’d like to be able to enjoy the 2015 Reds product, not its understudies.

And don’t give me any excuses this year. You can travel around the world in a single night, you can force yourself down chimneys, even in houses that don’t have one, and you fly reindeer. That’s great and all, but wake me up when Aoki is under my tree.

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com/MLB

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It’s a topic no one feels like talking about. It’s a stat commonly dismissed, regarded as weak or passive. And in 2014, it is killing the Cincinnati Reds offense.

Take a brief stroll through Twitter to find out what people think of walking, especially regarding Joey Votto, who has built a reputation for accumulating bases on balls (BBs):

@Reds have no chance to be a playoff team as long as Joey Votto takes multiple strikes to eventually walk. Paid big $ to be a run producer.

— Todd Stewart (@ToddStewartWKU) April 12, 2014

Two walk game for Joey Votto. Time to give up on the 2014 season.

— Tyler (@iTyBan) March 9, 2014

I’m sick and tired of watching Joey Votto get walked every AB. Even in spring training. Go yack or go back to Canada bro. #SwingTheStick

— Sage Kendall (@SAKtap24) March 9, 2014

While this toxic train of thought seemingly pollutes the general public, it flows from a main water line. In this case, Reds Hall of Fame commentator Marty Brennaman. Lance McAlister tweeted a quote from Marty in June 2013, a year in which Votto would finish as the No. 1 run creator in the NL:

“Saber people get all worked up over BBs, Joey Votto is paid to drive in runs, and he’s on pace for 80 RBI.”-Marty B, 700 WLW #Reds

— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) June 22, 2013

The prevailing thought of RBI being more important than BB isn’t relegated to just spectators of the sport either. Take the Chicago Cubs‘ Anthony Rizzo, for example, who on June 25 offered this to ESPN.com’s Sahadev Sharma:

I don’t really take pride in walking—I don’t really want to walk,” he said. “I’d rather drive the ball in the gap. But if I get a free pass, I get a free pass. It just depends on the situation. It really comes down to me swinging at the right pitches, and if I don’t get them and I have to walk, then I’ll walk.

Which of course is interesting when you consider the fact that Anthony Rizzo is on pace to finish the season with the highest on-base percentage (OBP) of his career (currently .376), thanks in large part to an increasing amount of walks.

The debate over RBI vs. OBP doesn’t need to be revisited in this space. Furthermore, to continue to acknowledge that it’s even a debate would be insulting to those who understand that there is no RBI without OBP.

Instead, I invite Reds fans to take a serious look at what the contenders in the NL are doing compared to the Reds in relation to walks. And feel free to keep the opening quotes from random fans and Brennaman in mind when reading the following. This won’t be hardcore sabermetrics. It won’t be anything mind-blowing, but hopefully mildly enlightening.

First, let’s observe the Reds and their walk total. At 397, that’s No. 21 in the sport. The Milwaukee Brewers are the only contending NL team with fewer walks than the Reds. The free-falling Brewers. 

Is anyone surprised, or repulsed, that Votto, who has played 62 games on the year, still leads this team in walks? Forty-seven walks from a guy who played 62 games, and most of those 62 two games were played on one leg. That’s the guy leading the team in BB.

I’ll provide a quick run-down of the top five Reds in walks, then we’ll compare their totals to the other contenders. Keep in mind, this is a Reds team that ranks third-worst in the entire sport in OBP, according to ESPN.com.

Joey Votto: 47
Todd Frazier: 46
Jay Bruce: 44
Devin Mesoraco: 40
Billy Hamilton: 32

The top five walkers on the Reds account for a meager 209 walks. 

By itself, this shouldn’t mean much, other than the fact that someone with nearly half the amount of games is still leading the team in BB. Now look at the five best walkers on the NL contenders, put them in relation to the Reds, and keep that terrible Reds OBP stat in mind:

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yasiel Puig: 64
Adrian Gonzalez: 52
Matt Kemp: 51
Hanley Ramirez: 51 
Andre Ellis: 50

Total: 268 walks

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew McCutchen: 72
Russell Martin: 56
Ike Davis: 54
Pedro Alvarez: 45
Neil Walker: 45

Total: 272 walks

St. Louis Cardinals:

Matt Carpenter: 88
Matt Holliday: 69
Jhonny Peralta: 56
John Jay: 28
Yadier Molina: 27

Total: 268 walks

Washington Nationals:

Adam LaRoche: 79
Jayson Werth: 75
Anthony Rendon: 53
Denard Span: 48
Ian Desmond: 41

Total: 296 walks

San Francisco Giants:

Brandon Crawford: 56
Hunter Pence: 50
Buster Posey: 44
Gregor Blanco: 39
Pablo Sandoval: 39

Total: 228 walks

The above are the five NL teams currently occupying a playoff spot. And while we have no interest in seeing our best players walk, the aforementioned teams are walking right into October. The Reds, meanwhile, continue their hacktastic approach to the game.

And that’s what Reds fans want, right? See the above tweets. We don’t want our best players to walk. They aren’t paid to walk; rather, they’re paid to hit home runs and drive in runners. They’re paid to amass RBI.

But how does one amass RBI with no one on base? Sure, there’s always the strategy of just putting it over the wall every at-bat, but some might argue that’s the Reds’ current approach. 

Yes, the hits are down, and a .239 team batting average is terrible. But the Reds don’t lead baseball in strikeouts (No. 9 in the NL), meaning they are putting plenty of balls in play…for outs.

According to FanGraphs.com, the Reds are No. 8 in O-swing percentage, meaning swings at balls out of the strike zone. Their swing percentage is an overall 48.1 percent, the No. 8 most swing-happy team in the sport.

The point being: plate discipline is a serious issue in this organization. And rather than supporting the one player on the Reds who understands that plate discipline is ultimately the key to a better offense, that wearing down pitchers is crucial, that an at-bat will not be compromised by simply offering at what the pitcher is serving, we chastise and mock him.

Because guys with high-dollar contracts aren’t paid to walk, right? 

Guys with high-dollar contracts are paid to win baseball games. And as cool as it is to hit home runs and RBI, it’s even cooler to win. That’s what someone like Votto understands. That’s what seemingly every contending team referenced above understands.

The question is, when will the Reds and the bulk of their fans?

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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It’s finally come to this, Cincinnati Reds fans. With virtually no hope remaining in what has been one of the more miserable, disappointing Reds seasons to date, we shift our focus to 2015. In Redsland, 2015 is all we have. Beyond that, very little is guaranteed. 

Anyone with even a fractional interest in this team understands where improvements need to be made.

For years, dating back to 2010, left field has been a constant area of debate. We remember the days of the Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey platoon. Ryan Ludwick was supposed to put an end to that, but in typical Reds fashion, a crippling injury in 2013 has reduced Ludwick to a shell of his former self.

He was signed by Walt Jocketty to essentially be the power bat in the middle of the order. But Ludwick has just 10 home runs in the near 479 plate appearances since he injured his shoulder on Opening Day of 2013. The power outage seems to be real. But it was probably expected considering he is 36 years old anyway.

And it’s not just the power. Everything from batting average, OBP and slugging have all been down since the beginning of 2013. With that in mind, it’s probably realistic that the Reds will spend $4.5 million just to send Ludwick off.

And with his departure comes the topic of replacements. 

The popular idea may be to just hit the market and sign a big bat. But with so many vital players approaching arbitration, that’s unlikely. Because of what these players are making now, it is not far-fetched to assume that Mike Leake and Mat Latos get salaries close to or above $10 million. 

Alfredo Simon’s salary will likely jump from just $1.5 million to maybe somewhere around $5 million, but that is strictly a guess and is in no way validated. Could be more, could be less.

Then there are, of course, the salaries of Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto.

Unless there is a decision to increase payroll, it is highly unlikely the Reds will have the cash necessary to procure the services of a bona fide cleanup hitter from the market. Therefore, they may have to consider internal options.

But is that a bad thing? With a healthy Votto, a healthy Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, aren’t any of them qualified to bat cleanup?

In my opinion, there are enough able bats on a healthy Reds roster to hit for power. But OBP is a major problem. Per ESPN.com, the Reds are No. 28 in OBP, nearly dead last. That, more than nearly anything else, needs to be addressed. The following are three guys who may be able to help do that from left field.

Jason Bourgeois

Jason Bourgeois is the starting center fielder for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. This 32-year-old right-handed option is no stranger to the big leagues. He’s had stints with the Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers. 

With a very limited time in the majors, his slash line after just 515 plate appearances in six years is .259/.305/.326. Surely that doesn’t blow anyone away, but that’s a very limited sample size.

In 15 minor league seasons, Bourgeois is slashing .282/.342/.386. This year, he’s slashing .283/.336/.372. He has 143 hits in 126 games played. This isn’t a power hitter, and he won’t drive in many runs, but he gets on base at a healthy pace and can steal a base. 

Felix Perez

Felix Perez has played mostly right field in Louisville this season in a year in which he was named to the Independent League All-Star game. On the season, Perez is slashing .282/.328/.456. This 29-year-old has spent five seasons in the Reds farm system. His slash line for those five years is .281/.330/.405.

Unlike Bourgeois, Perez does have some power. He’s got 11 home runs in 425 at-bats and 68 RBI to add to that. He also has 150 games of left field experience in five minor league seasons, with a fielding percentage of .990.

Per Rotoworld, Perez was once a prized prospect of the New York Yankees, but he lost out on a $3.5 million signing bonus when it was discovered that he lied about his age.

Devin Mesoraco

That’s right. According to Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay, the Reds plan on possibly moving Mesoraco around a bit next spring. Per Fay, Mesoraco is willing, saying:

If that’s something I was asked to do, I’d absolutely do it. There’s a few positions that I could play, probably first base, maybe left field, that would take more work. But I don’t see any harm in doing it. Spring training as long as it is, there’s plenty of time for it. I’d be more than willing.

This is a likely option to consider, because with Brayan Pena inked through next season, he’ll be able to play catcher while Mesoraco‘s bat stays in the lineup. It has been a challenge to keep him in the lineup for Bryan Price this year, so if Mesoraco becomes more versatile, it will help things out a lot.

Remember, while none of these options will blow you away, keep payroll in mind. It won’t be the No. 4 hitter who takes the Reds to the next level. It will be the team’s dominant pitching staff and, hopefully, its restructured, healthy bullpen.

The Reds need money to secure the very core of their team moving forward, so left field should be addressed as cost-efficiently as possible.

*Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.

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After seven long weeks atop the Reds player power rankings, Johnny Cueto was officially lifted from the throne following a disastrous outing against the Washington Nationals. It was an odd sequence of events; the first two runs to cross the plate were unearned. By that time, Cueto had already been laboring, working nearly every full.

But on a night when the Reds’ ace was less than perfect, the defense behind him was less than adequate, making for a beating at the hands of the Nationals and a new No. 1 in this week’s power rankings.

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The news came from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds star first baseman, stayed in Cincinnati for an MRI and a consultation with team physician Dr. Tim Kremchek rather than joining the team at the start of a six-game road trip.

The finding was that Votto has a strain in his distal quad, the part of the thigh muscles nearest to the knee. The injury is to Votto‘s left leg, the same one he had two surgeries on in 2012. The team will take the next few days to see how he responds to treatment and rest before making a decision about the disabled list.

The diagnosis of the Grade I strain is a positive given earlier indications of a knee problem, but it’s not good either. There is very clearly an issue with his movement pattern, and the injury will affect the stable base that Votto needs in order to hit well in his manner. It could be a discrete injury, but there has to be concern that the previous knee problems have caused changes that led to a cascade injury. 

In 2012, Votto had a simple meniscus tear. He had a meniscectomy and, during rehab, took things a bit too fast, leading to a need to go back in and repair the knee a second time. Votto struggled when he returned because he had a hard time finding a stable base for his swing. The extreme loss of power is certainly a worry in the short term with this latest injury.

The Reds medical staff will use all of their available modalities to help Votto, but most of this is going to be about his healing response. Votto has a tendency to be very reticent about injuries, trying to play through them until his performance has suffered, then trying to get back too quickly. If Votto shows some healing over the weekend, the Reds may try to let him come back with some restrictions. If they decide that he’d be better served by more time, they won’t hesitate to push him to the DL. 

With Votto‘s giant contract hanging over his head and potentially becoming a major issue for the Reds if his production drops, this latest knee problem is a major concern. At worst, Votto is beginning to have degenerative changes in his knee, which would likely reduce his availability and production. Votto had a major drop-off in power once he returned from surgery in 2012, and that could become permanent.

Votto has had a disappointing season, as pointed out by Cincinnati radio host Lance McAllister. Some of that may be due to the knee, especially if he has been trying to play through this. However, there’s been no real sign that Votto is having problems. He’s not a speed guy and has a lumbering gait when healthy, so this may have been impossible to see. 

The Reds are already without Jay Bruce, who recently had knee surgery to correct a similar problem. The fact that the team has two such similar injuries in a short period of time could be coincidence, but there’s also the possibility that there’s an issue with the movement patterns they are using. That’s unlikely given the stability in support and medical staff, but it’s something I’m sure the team is checking.

While Votto is out, the team will give Neftali Soto a look, with Brayan Pena being another possibility. Neither is a fantasy option, and both are a major downgrade at the position for the Reds.

Votto shouldn’t be out much longer than the 15-day minimum in the worst-case scenario, so the Reds will simply have to try to get offense elsewhere in the short term. Bryan Price, the new manager of the Reds, will have to show how adaptable he is offensively while missing his two biggest bats.

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Updates from Saturday, May 17

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has an update on Votto’s status:

Reds first baseman Joey Votto stayed behind in Cincinnati on Saturday while the team waited to decide if his strained left quadriceps will require a trip to the disabled list.

“We’re still optimistic that he may not need to go on the DL,” Price said. “That being said, we’ll probably have more clarity on that once we get through this weekend series and see how things have evolved.

“We want Joey back as Joey Votto, not as a shell or a shadow of who he is. We want him to play confidently on that knee and that leg for the rest of the season and the rest of his career moving forward. If that means it takes two or three weeks to get it right, that’s OK. But we also don’t want to put him on the DL if we feel that it might be a four-to-seven-day turnaround.”

Original Text

The Cincinnati Reds have struggled to keep pace in the NL Central this season, and things won’t get any easier now that first baseman Joey Votto is ailing.

C. Trent Rosecrans has an update on Votto’s MRI:

MLB‘s Mark Sheldon has Bryan Price’s thoughts on the injury:

It means there’s a reason for the soreness and the fatigue in the leg…We’ll collect as an organization after the game today and try to define the best course of either rehab or the best decision for Joey and the club.

I don’t think initially the feeling was that it was going to be chronic or long-term debilitating…But until you check anybody out, you don’t know what you can find. Yeah, it is a collective sigh of relief for sure that it’s not anything serious. It looks like all the structural stuff in the knee is great and intact. That’s the positive thing to this point.

The Reds later announced the lineup for today’s game, while C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer shed light on Votto’s replacement:

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com first reported Votto’s knee injury that may cause him to be placed on the disabled list:

The Reds are currently third in their division with a record of 18-21, and they trail the surprising Milwaukee Brewers by seven games.

Votto, who won the National League MVP Award in 2010, has suffered through an up-and-down season thus far. He is hitting just .257 with six home runs and 12 RBI, although he boasts an excellent on-base percentage of .410 due to his elite pitch selection at the plate.

The 30-year-old star has been named to the All-Star team in four consecutive seasons and has been key to Cincinnati’s regular-season success in recent years.

As evidenced by these stats courtesy of ESPN 1530’s Lance McAlister, the month of May hasn’t been kind to Votto:

According to Gary Schatz of The Associated Press (h/t Kentucky.com), Votto recently intimated that his production would eventually come around. “At the end of the year, you’ll look up and I’ll be about the same,” he said. “The frustrating part is my struggles have coincided with a number of close losses.”

It is unclear when Votto suffered the injury, so it is possible that it has nagged him over the course of the season. If that is the case, then it might explain his recent ineffectiveness.

Should Votto go on the DL, his absence will hurt the depth of Cincinnati’s lineup significantly. Even when he isn’t hitting well, he offers protection to other hitters in the lineup.

Add in the fact that outfielder Jay Bruce is on the shelf with a knee injury of his own, and the Reds offense is on the verge of becoming anemic.

Pitching and defense will have to step up without star hitters in the lineup, but it may be too late for the Reds to get back into the playoff race by the time Votto and Bruce return.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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With the candidates for the American League MVP Award essentially determined already (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera), let’s turn our attention to the National League. The award is wide open this year with no clear favorite standing out.

Who will claim 2014’s National League Most Valuable Player Award? You can be sure it will be one of these players.

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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