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The Los Angeles Dodgers are among the teams reportedly interested in acquiring Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce before the August 1 trade deadline. 

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Dodgers May Shore Up OF with Bruce

Sunday, June 26 

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Bruce is a “consideration” for the Dodgers. Los Angeles is not one of the teams covered by Bruce’s limited no-trade clause.

The 29-year-old right fielder is hitting .280/.329/.575 with 16 home runs and 57 runs batted in so far this season. It’s been a surprising return to form that has Bruce on pace for his first 30-homer season since 2013 and just his second campaign ever with 100 RBI.

Bruce said, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer:

I’ve been OK at baseball before this. I’ve had some good years and I feel normal. I think that’s the biggest thing that I’m going to have to continue to show. I feel like Jay Bruce. Not 2014 and 15, those were miserable years. I was injured and I think some of that stuff carried over and had some bad habits that I got rid of.

Unfortunately, it’s been all part of a lost cause in Cincinnati. The Reds entered Sunday with a 28-47 record, sitting in last place in the competitive National League Central. With the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates all light-years ahead on the competitive balance scale, it’s unsurprising the Reds would look to move Bruce while his value is high.

The Dodgers have a need in the outfield with Andre Ethier still yet to make his season debut because of a leg injury. They’ve also gotten next to zero production from Yasiel Puig, while youngsters Trayce Thompson and Joc Pederson have been only intermittently effective. Bruce would instantly slot in as their most productive offensive outfielder.

Los Angeles also has competition. The Reds are not going to lack for suitors who are looking to acquire a big bat, and they may be able to drum up a bidding war as we get closer to the deadline. 

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.

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There are two guys in the NL Central having great bounce-back seasons but whose efforts are being wasted on clubs that are about as bad as everyone expected them to be.

It sounds like these two guys would be better off in greener pastures. And before long, the summer trade market could make it happen.

Provided you know how to read a headline, you’ve already figured out I’m talking about Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun and Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce. They’re looming large on the ol‘ radar after combining for three home runs Saturday. Braun clubbed two in a 7-4 win over the New York Mets at Miller Park, and Bruce sent one into orbit in a 2-1 victory over the Oakland A’s at Great American Ball Park.

It is that dinger to which we shall turn our attention:

Ooh. Ahh. Whoa. Et cetera.

Braun’s 10th and 11th home runs of 2016 snapped him out of a mini-funk and upped his batting average to .316 and his OPS to .919. After hitting just .275 with an .815 OPS over the last two seasons, the 32-year-old is “back” like Matthew McConaughey circa 2014.

Bruce is enjoying a renaissance of his own. His 14th home run of 2016 upped his average to .276 and his OPS to .911. For a guy who hit just .222 with a .695 OPS over the last two campaigns, the 29-year-old’s comeback is one that no lame reference to an actor can properly capture.

With the Brewers and the Reds stuck in full-on rebuilding mode as they languish many games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, the only question is how long it will be before their clubs move Braun and/or Bruce. The best answer appears to be “soon.”

Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors has already rated Braun and Bruce among the league’s top 10 summer trade candidates, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has heard rumblings about both. Braun is the “hot name out there,” an NL scout told Cafardo. The Reds are “open for business and Bruce is available.”

Braun and Bruce both have no-trade protection in their contracts. The former can block trades to all but five clubs. The latter can block trades to eight clubs. But Bruce’s contract is less of a hurdle for prospective buyers. Braun is still owed $80 million over four years after 2016. Bruce is owed $12.5 million this year, after which his club can either pick up a $13 million option or pay a $1 million buyout.

That not only equates to less money for the Reds and a buyer to haggle over, but it means fewer questions for buyers to ask regarding whether Bruce can keep up his hot hitting. And as it is, his hot hitting is believable enough.

Bruce never recovered from the left-knee woes he experienced in 2014, and the knee seemed to dog him in 2015 too. As August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs wrote, the most noticeable problem was Bruce’s opposite-field power, or lack thereof.

But this year, it’s made a nice comeback. As of Saturday morning, Bruce’s recent opposite-field slugging percentages lined up like this:

• 2014: .313
• 2015: .374
• 2016: .615

Bruce has been clobbering the ball in general this year. His overall hard-hit rate was 38.7 percent entering Saturday, well ahead of his career rate of 34.5 percent. So despite some less than awesome defensive metrics, he’s looking a lot like the feared slugger he was between 2010 and 2013.

Braun, meanwhile, comes with more baggage. Prospective buyers not only have to square themselves with his contract, but with his recent thumb and back woes. Also, nobody’s forgetting his performance-enhancing drug drama.

But as rival evaluators told Buster Olney of ESPN.com last month, Braun’s 2016 season has “altered the perception of him as a player you wouldn’t touch because of his age and PED history into someone worth considering.” At least in part, this would seem to be thanks to his return to good health.

“Swing is in a good place, bat path is in a good place,” Braun said in April, via Genaro C. Armas of the Associated Press. “But more than that, I’m healthy, healthiest I’ve been in a while. I feel good.”

We’ll have to take Braun’s word for it that he’s feeling healthy for the first time in a while, but there’s no need to take his word for it on his swing. After struggling mightily in 2014 and 2015, he’s not chasing (O-Swing percent), whiffing (SwStr percent) or striking out (K percent) as much in 2016:

One thing to be skeptical about is the rate at which Braun is putting balls on the ground, as his 54.4 GB percent is way above his career norm. The fact that he’s putting up good power numbers despite that, however, points to how he’s not wasting what he puts in the air. His hard-hit rate on fly balls is safely above his career average.

And where Bruce only has hit bat to offer, Braun can still run the bases and, depending on which metric you prefer, is playing a good left field. He’s not the same guy, but he’s at least a reflection of the person who was contending for MVPs in his heyday.

A scout Cafardo spoke to listed the Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Chicago White Sox as potential buyers for Braun. Narrow that list to clubs with the financial and young talent assets needed to make music, and the Astros, Red Sox and Phillies make a fair bit of sense.

Per Cafardo, teams that could be interested in Bruce are the Phillies, Cardinals and Mets, plus the Kansas City Royals. KC’s subpar right field production and long list of injuries give it incentive to go after Bruce. But it should watch out for the Cleveland Indians, a fellow AL Central contender that could be a sleeper in the Bruce sweepstakes.

With Braun and Bruce looking like their better selves on teams that have virtually no reasons to keep them, everything is there for the trade winds to start blowing.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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As the weather heats up, so should the trade rumors surrounding Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce, a potential unrestricted free agent this winter.

Continue for updates.

Multiple Teams Eyeing Bruce

Monday, May 23 

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Bruce has been targeted by a “few teams,” including the Kansas City Royals.

The 29-year-old is hitting .270/.327/.518 with eight home runs and 28 runs batted in so far this season. He’s bordering on a pace that would see him touch the 30-home run mark for the first time since 2013.

That Bruce is available via trade should come as no surprise. The Toronto Blue Jays nearly acquired him in February as part of a three-team deal before medical reports halted the trade. It’s unclear which of the players caused the trip-up. Toronto outfielder Michael Saunders was also part of the deal.

The Reds are in the midst of a full-scale rebuild, winning 64 games in 2015 and sitting at 15-29 so far this season.

“It is tough losing. It’s tough to have leads and lose them. It’s also tough when we don’t score and don’t hit very well,” Bruce said, per David Jablonski of the Springfield News-Sun. “The only option is for us to continue to go forward. No one’s going to feel sorry for us. We can’t feel sorry for ourselves. We just have to do better on both sides of the ball.”

Bruce is one of any number of Cincinnati veterans who could be on the move. Second baseman Brandon Phillips, shortstop Zack Cozart and first baseman Joey Votto could all arguably be more valuable elsewhere.

Bruce is perhaps the easiest to move given his contract situation. The veteran outfielder’s $13 million salary for 2017 carries only $1 million in guarantees. A team in need of some power could use him as a short-term rental before allowing him to hit the open market.

That could be attractive to a small-market club like the Royals, who are tied for 27th in runs scored and 26th in home runs. The defending World Series champs are near the bottom in every major offensive category.

Bruce has been an abysmal defensive outfielder for his entire MLB career, so a move to the American League might help. Becoming a designated hitter might be his best career move over the long term, regardless.

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The Cincinnati Reds are in full rebuilding mode and are selling off any veteran piece they can. Outfielder Jay Bruce may be the next to go.

Continue for updates.

Multiple Hurdles Still in Way of Potential Bruce Trade

Thursday, Jan. 14

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick couldn’t identify any possible suitors but reported the Reds “are still listening on Jay Bruce.” Crasnick also passed along an email from general manager Dick Williams:

We are still evaluating options. We do not consider our offseason to be finished. Deciding to focus on the long-term means you have to constantly evaluate opportunities. Trading [Todd] Frazier and [Aroldis] Chapman certainly begins to move us in the direction we need to go, as a small market team. Once you start down this road, it is important to continue with the tough decisions and not pull up in the middle of the project. That being said, we cannot force deals so I cannot guarantee we will do more.

Dealing Bruce will be much easier said than done. After a career year in 2013, the 28-year-old has struggled at the plate. He hit a career-low 18 home runs in 2014 while driving in 66 runs and batting .217, and his numbers picked up only slightly in 2015.

Bruce had a slash line of .226/.294/.434 with 26 homers and 87 RBI. However, his .261 true average (TAv), which is league average, was a little more indicative of his performance at the plate, per Baseball Prospectus.

Still, Bruce is due $12.5 million in 2016 and has a $1 million buyout for 2017. Plenty of teams may balk at committing at least $13.5 million to him after the last two seasons. According to Spotrac, he also has a no-trade clause that applies to eight teams: the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins.

In order to facilitate a trade, the Reds might have to concede some value coming their way.

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The Cincinnati Reds unsuccessfully shopped Jay Bruce at the 2015 MLB trade deadline, but the team appears more motivated to move the right fielder with the offseason officially underway. 

Continue for updates. 

Reds Could Move Bruce as Rebuild Gets Underway

Tuesday, Nov. 10

According to FoxSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, the Reds “finally are willing to trade” Bruce along with closer Aroldis Chapman, as members of the front office have publicly stated a desire to shake up the roster in hopes of contending down the line. 

“We’re in a tough division,” President of Baseball Operations Walt Jocketty said, per Rosenthal. “We’ve got to be realistic about it.”    

The Reds attempted to deal Bruce at the deadline, but according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, the trade fell apart when they had “second thoughts” about the return they would be receiving from the New York Mets. 

“We still wanted to be somewhat protective of our club last year,” Jocketty added, per Rosenthal. “We had certain guys we just didn’t want to move. We started at the deadline knowing that we would gear up—’16 would be a transition year and in ’17 and ’18, we think we could be stronger and more competitive.”

According to Spotrac, Bruce is due an affordable $12.5 million next season before Cincinnati decides whether it wants to exercise a $13 million club option in 2017. 

The two-time All-Star slumped in conjunction with the Reds’ slide into the NL Central cellar. During the 2015 season, Bruce batted .226 with a shaky .294 on-base percentage while hitting 26 home runs and driving in 87 runs. 

Rosenthal didn’t peg potential suitors for the 28-year-old, but considering Bruce is under team control for two more seasons, he should be an attractive option to prospective contenders in need of cost-effective power. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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The addition of a second wild-card slot has had a huge effect on the MLB trade deadline the past three seasons.  With so many teams on the fringes of contention, teams that have actually chosen to auction off assets have enjoyed a thriving seller’s market due to the scarcity of real impact.

Entering the All-Star break this season, 18 of the 30 teams have at least a 16 percent chance of reaching the Wild Card Game, per Fangraphs‘ playoff odds.  While teetering teams like the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers may add to the list of sellers, there again figures to be fierce competition for the top trade assets on the block.

With the league at a standstill for the next few days, let’s round up the latest trade buzz roughly two weeks before the July 31 deadline, starting with a pair of Cincinnati Reds stars.

Astros in on Cueto

The Houston Astros have been the biggest surprise of the season, and despite losing the AL West lead they held for most of the first half, Fangraphs still pegs the young squad with a 56.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason.  Consequently, Houston is looking to boost those odds with the highest-profile rental of the deadline period, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

The Astros have keen trade interest in Reds starter Johnny Cueto, and it appears he may even be their top target, if as expected Cueto hits trade market soon, people familiar with their thinking say.

The Astros just fell a half game out of first place after a very nice first half in which they led the AL West basically the whole way, and one person connected to their team said that “they know they need a starter.”

The Astros do have a nice one-two punch at the top of their rotation with All-Star starter Dallas Kuechel and potential Rookie of the Year Lance McCullers.  However, apart from Collin McHugh, the rest of the rotation has been a sinkhole, especially after Scott Feldman’s knee injury in May.  Brett Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez have been roughly replacement-level starters, and the Astros need at least one pitching upgrade if they intend on swimming with the top contenders in 2015.

Though Cueto got snubbed of an All-Star berth, his numbers aren’t all that far off from last season, when he finished runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting.  His 3.06 FIP is actually lower than the 3.30 mark he posted in 2014, and he’s cut his walk rate from 2.40 BB/9 to 1.67.  Cueto has gotten opposing hitters to chase 37 percent of his pitches outside the zone, the fifth-highest mark in the league, as his swing-and-miss stuff is clearly there:

Houston’s offense could use another table-setter besides Jose Altuve who can get on base, but pitching looms as an equally strong need.  Cueto would only be an Astro for two months given his expiring contract, but he would also enhance Houston’s chances of delivering a playoff berth ahead of schedule.

Bruce on the Block

Cueto isn’t the only player who could ship out of Cincinnati, as right fielder Jay Bruce could also end up elsewhere come August.  Heyman reports that the Reds are about to become full-fledged sellers, so despite being under contract, the 28-year-old could still move at the deadline:

Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is available in trade, league sources say.

The Reds are expected by rivals to become a full-fledged seller in coming days, perhaps shortly after the All-Star Game here, but to this point the one name being heard is Bruce, which is somewhat curious since they have multiple big players who are free agents after the year, and Bruce isn’t one of them.

Bruce has offered a proven power bat in the middle of the lineup for years and, according to Heyman, is under contract for a reasonable $19.5 million total through the end of next season (plus a $13 million player option for 2017).  With at least two years of team control, the Reds might be able to extract as large a haul for Bruce as Cueto or Mike Leake, both of whom are free agents after this season.

After a horrid start, Bruce has heated up recently, posting a gorgeous .342/.390/.632 line in July.  The poor BABIP luck that plagued him last season has begun to rebound, and with his lowest strikeout rate (22.2 percent) since 2009, teams in need of lefty power like the Angels and Royals could start a bidding war for Bruce’s services in the upcoming weeks.

 

Padres Shopping Shields 

The San Diego Padres were one of the biggest spenders this offseason, but the money hasn’t bought them a contending ticket.  Sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games behind the second wild-card spot, Fangraphs pegs the Padres’ playoff odds at a minuscule 2.4 percent.  Facing that bleak outlook, San Diego is apparently shopping one of their big offseason adds, according to Peter Gammons:

On the surface, James Shields has regressed from his Kansas City days, posting a 4.01 ERA that would be his highest mark since 2010 and a career-high 3.09 walk rate.  However, as Beyond the Boxscore’s Murphy Powell argues, Shields’ peripheral stats suggest poor flyball luck that could spell a second-half rebound:

James Shields is striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings and walking nearly three per nine. If you prefer percentages, he’s striking out about 27 percent of the guys he faces and walking 7.7 percent, all of which are career highs. The home run rate will likely come down — it would be fairly remarkable to see that mark stay higher than 17 percent all year when the league standard is about 11 percent. Shields has made some changes with his curveball usage, and it’s been useful for the most part. The strikeouts and whiffs are great. With a 3.21 xFIP, we might see some better overall results for Shields soon.

Powell notes how Shields’ fastball and cutter have both gotten pounded for power this season, a troubling development given how often he throws those pitches.  Nonetheless, Shields’ batted-ball profile is virtually copy-pasted from last year, as he’s not giving up much more hard contact.  If the Padres really do sell low on Shields, they might be underselling his bounce-back potential.

Shields’ market might not be robust given his age (33 years old) and $62 million salary over the next three seasons, though he can technically opt out after 2016, per Spotrac.  Given his “Big Game” moniker, it would only be fitting for Shields to return to a contender in time for October once again.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Fangraphs.

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Even if the Cincinnati Reds don’t get back into contention, they are going to be a team that has a big impact on the pennant race.

Why? Because the team has plenty of attractive trade chips.

The proverbial window appears to be closing on this Reds squad. Some of the key players are entering the final year(s) of their contracts, which will force the club to make some tough decisions. Keeping those players would certainly help the club stay relevant, but trading them would help the organization in the future.

The Castellini family has been determined to bring a championship to Cincinnati since buying the team nearly a decade ago. Ownership has done a great job of turning the franchise around, but now, it faces some crucial decisions that could affect the team for years to come.

With plenty of trade chips on the roster, Cincinnati has the ability to control the market come July. Keep reading to find out which players the Reds should deal and which they should keep.

Begin Slideshow

It’s what’s on the agenda when a team is eight games under .500 and 11.5 games out of first before June. Because a Reds rebuild seems all but certain with ace Johnny Cueto playing in the final year of his contract, it’s time to assess what’s worked and what’s in store.

What has Walt Jocketty assembled in the last seven seasons, and what did previous general manager Wayne Krivsky leave him with? The following is a list of the Reds’ first-round draft picks from the past decade:

2005: Jay Bruce, OF

Has time snuck up on you too? Jay Bruce was drafted 12th overall that year and was widely considered the future. He was called up to replace Corey Patterson in the early part of 2008 after hitting above .300 across three minor league levels in 2007.

Did he go on to become the Reds’ future? The term’s subjective—after all, it was Bruce’s looping swing that ended the playoff drought and brought the Reds back for the first time in a decade. It’s hard to argue that he became the face of this franchise—Joey Votto or Johnny Cueto may have thoughts on that matter—but there’s no denying he’s contributed in a big way.

His rookie season, he finished No. 5 overall in Rookie of the Year voting, he’s a three-time All-Star with two Silver Slugger awards, and he finished No. 10 in MVP voting two years straight (’12-’13).

He’s a career .250/.323/.486 but has 571 RBI and 189 home runs. In now his eighth year, Bruce has only hit fewer than 20 home runs once—last year, a year that featured arthroscopic knee surgery.

Despite a lengthy slump, there is no denying how prolific Bruce has been to a playoff roster. This was a successful pick by Krivsky. Considering his contract and the Reds’ oncoming fire sale, it’s likely we’ll see the end of the Bruce era here. He’s likely to fetch a good return, especially if his recent hot streak continues.

2006: Drew Stubbs, OF

Believe it or not, Stubbs was the eighth overall pick that year. He ended up debuting with the Reds in 2009 as the Reds were assembling their new product post-Griffey-Dunn Era, ripe with high draft picks.

In a lot of ways, Stubbs contributed—his defense in center was good, and averaging nearly 30 stolen bases and over 12 home runs a season was good. But power aside, Stubbs was not a good hitter. His OBP was never higher than .329; .255 was the highest average he’d have in four years—all of which are very forgettable, especially for a top-10 overall draft pick.

But Walt Jocketty turned Drew Stubbs into Shin-Soo Choo, a pivotal piece of the Reds’ 2013 playoff campaign. And for that, Stubbs proved even more useful.

2007: Devin Mesoraco C, Todd Frazier 3B, Kyle Lotzkar RHP

Can we universally agree the first two names from 2007 are successes? Both made the All-Star Game in 2014, and Frazier was a Home Run Derby for what it’s worth, the first Reds participant since Ken Griffey Jr.

But Frazier is currently No. 2 in NL home runs behind Bryce Harper. His career line in now his fourth season is .258/.328/.461, but there’s no denying the impact he’s had on the Reds offense. He’s had two good batting average years (.273 in ’12 and ’14) and two bad ones (.232 in ’11, .234 in ’13).

He’s one of the only notable acts happening at Great American Ball Park right now. Devin Mesoraco perhaps would be, but he can’t stay healthy. The young slugger has made it to the disabled list again after just 51 plate appearances.

For his career, he’s slashing an unimpressive .242/.313/.423. But Mesoraco has just two years since 2011 where he’s played in over 100 games. He was an All-Star last season, a season that featured a career-high 440 plate appearances.

Kyle Lotzkar came and went. This was a swing and miss of Jonny Gomes caliber. He never made it higher than Double-A, which is where he’s at now, within the Texas Rangers organization.

Thus ends the Krivsky portion of the re-evaluation. Time to see how Walt did.

2008: Yonder Alonso, 1B

Was Yonder Alonso a successful pick? Walt Jocketty turned him and two other first-round draft picks into Mat Latos, the key No. 2 in the rotation that earned the Reds the 2012 NL Central crown. He was also the pitcher who surrendered the deciding Buster Posey grand slam to end that season.

That was Latos’ most important pitch as a Red, but there’s no denying his three exceptional years in a Reds uniform, never finishing with an ERA above 3.48 and tossing over 200 innings twice.

2009: Mike Leake SP, Bradley Boxberger RHP

Despite Mike Leake’s recent struggles, this pick skipped the farm and went right to the pros after being drafted. He’s never been asked to be the ace, and prior to this season, he’s never had to play the role of a No. 2 guy. So his career 55-46 3.97 is a remarkable contribution.

Leake threw over 200 innings for the first time last year. He’s on pace to do it again this season. Should the Reds enter rebuild, Leake is a candidate for trade, but he’s also an extension candidate, especially if and when the Reds move Cueto and free themselves of enormous fiscal responsibility.

Bradley Boxberger was packaged with Alonso and one other to land Latos.

2010: Yasmani Grandal, C

Grandal was also moved in the package for Latos. Devin Mesoraco won the role of Reds future catcher in Cincinnati.

2011: Robert Stephenson, SP 

Baseball America‘s No. 1 Reds prospect and one of the Reds’ only two Top 100 MLB prospects (MLB.com), Stephenson has struggled mightily since reaching Double-A. In now his third Double-A season, the promising right-hander is 9-16 with a 4.87 ERA.

That’s not to say there isn’t serious potential here—there most assuredly is. In 39.1 innings pitched, Stephenson’s recorded 46 strikeouts. That’s serious. The problem is his control. He’s averaging 6.6 walks per nine innings. Command has plagued him since reaching Double-A, after he finished averaging seven walks per nine innings in 2013.

2012: Nick Travieso SP, Jesse Winker OF, Jeff Gelalich OF

Nick Travieso is developing fine as the Reds’ No. 8 prospect. He’s 2-4 with a 3.88 ERA and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s just in High-A, so it’s unlikely we’ll see him anytime soon.

Jesse Winker is the other Top 100 MLB prospect the Reds are sitting on and the Reds’ No.3 prospect, according to Baseball America. Prior to his wrist injury last season, Winker was killing it. But since reaching Double-A last season, Winker is slashing .225/.341/.333.

That could be just due to a cold start—Winker did impress in the Arizona Fall League (hit .338). Still, there’s no reason to suggest he’s regressing or anything yet, not unless his averages remain like this for the whole season. 

Winker is considered by man to be the heir to Jay Bruce’s throne in left field. 

Jeff Gelalich is now in his fourth minor league season. He’s still hovering around High-A and is only slashing .240/.326/.332. This left-handed hitter is a working project, often displaying flashes of potential, but he lacks consistency. 

2013: Phillip Ervin OF, Michael Lorenzen SP

Ervin bats behind Gelalich for the High-A Daytona Tortugas. It’s the highest level of competition he’s seen, and thus far he is handling it fine, slashing .253/.338/.460 in 202 plate appearances. 

Ervin wasn’t listed as an organizational top prospect, but he’s coming off a poor season in Dayton, where he hit just .238.

Michael Lorenzen, the No. 4 organizational prospect, has been an incredible draft pick so far. Lorenzen was pitching in Double-A last season. He started this year in Triple-A, and following season-ending surgery for Bailey, he’s pitching in The Show and doing it well (1-1, 3.12).

2014: Nick Howard RHP, Alex Blandino SS

A closer in college, the Reds tried converting Howard to a starter, and prior to this season, it was looking like a good move. This season has been brutal for Howard, though, and following a bad stretch where he surrendered 10 earned runs in three starts and never made it out of the fourth inning, he was moved back to the bullpen.

After three scoreless appearances from the bullpen, Howard’s been roughed up. He’s sporting a 7.03 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00.

Alex Blandino, however, is performing well in the same lineup as Ervin and Gelalich. He’s slashing .319/.405/.448. Numbers like this make him an enticing heir to Zack Cozart’s throne.

Krisky’s last picks, minus Lotzkar, were all good. The jury is still out on Jocketty’s 12 picks. Three of the 12 became Latos, who ultimately became Anthony DeSclafani, so hard to knock those. Two of the 12 are currently in the Reds starting rotation. The other seven are in development, but none of them above Double-A.

Still, from a pitching stance, the pipeline seems stocked with future contributors, provided they make it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise. Organizational rankings compliments of BaseballAmerica.com while Top-100 prospects come from MLB.com.

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Based on your general disposition, you see the Cincinnati Reds in one of the two following lights: They’re a team at or floating around .500 with baseball’s worst OBP and worst bullpen ERA, or they’re a team at .500 and tied for the remaining wild-card slot.

History suggests Reds owner Bob Castellini will see the latter. He’s a competitive soul, so long as the Reds can sniff a playoff spot, don’t expect them to sell.

Still, given both scenarios, if the Reds make any deals this year, it is likely they’ll hit the market as sellers rather than buyers. They’d rather subtract payroll than add more. So if the Reds fall out of contention, the following is a short list of trades they should be thinking about.

Johnny Cueto, SP

If the Reds are selling, consider Johnny Cueto the Apple Watch. He’s the biggest trade chip the Reds have, and he’s guaranteed to bring a sizable return for any team willing to make itself an immediate World Series contender.

Any team trading for Cueto at the deadline is probably already good enough to be in contention. Cueto would make that team good enough to win it all.

His price tag is unclear. Last year, the Tampa Bay Rays were in a similar situation with ace David Price, who was near the final year of his contract. When they finally moved Price, they received Drew Smyly, a talented MLB-ready starter (now 19-14 with a 3.23 ERA in three years), infielder Willy Adames, rated the No. 77 prospect by MLB.com this year, and infielder Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners, a first-round draft pick from 2009.

That’s a sizable return for the Cy Young-winning Price. Cueto doesn’t have a Cy Young, but he finished No. 2 last year in National League voting, and he’s already off to a good start in 2015.

The Boston Red Sox are a suitable match. They have the second-worst rotation in baseball and the worst rotation in the American League. They do have Henry Owens, an impressive left-hander in Triple-A. They also have a good, young left-handed batting outfielder in Brock Holt, who’s hitting .278/.388/.450 this season at the major league level.

Marlon Byrd is only a temporary solution, and 2016 is rapidly approaching for Jay Bruce, so Holt would be a natural request. They also have Deven Marrero, a 2012 first-round draft pick who is now a Triple-A shortstop hitting .291/.368/.659.

Brandon Phillips, 2B

Remember, this is only if the Reds are selling. And if they’re selling, there’s no reason to keep Brandon Phillips and his contract on the payroll. He’s having a good season by every measure, slashing .316/.343/.357, and that’s why he must be moved if the Reds are selling.

His value will never be higher.

After the Reds failed to move Phillips last year during the offseason, expect them to try again. It may not be far-fetched to see Walt Jocketty package Cueto with Phillips, though, in fairness, Phillips should be performing well enough to require a decent return—maybe a top-10 prospect, depending on how persuasive Walt can be on the phone. 

It’s not just his bat. He’s healthy, and his defense is as good as ever. Phillips has become a valuable trade chip in a short time. If he can keep his production up, especially at this rate, the Reds should have no problem flipping him.

With the New York Mets‘ David Murphy hitting .210 in 100 games, the Mets could be potential suitors. Eric Sogard has been underwhelming in Oakland, so Phillips is also an option for Billy Beane, who won’t hesitate to fill a need at the deadline. 

In all likelihood, moving Phillips would be more about payroll reduction and less about return.

Jay Bruce, OF

Jay Bruce is a sell-low candidate, but considering his contract is up in 2016, the Reds have to consider getting something for him if they want to rebuild. 

Bruce is slashing a miserable .176/.290/.396—this following his worst career year, a year in which he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery. Neither his current slash line nor last year’s is remotely close to his career numbers.

If the Reds are trying to rebuild, Bruce won’t be a part of it. And he won’t bring much back—maybe a good prospect. Most people would have expected more for a talent as prized as Bruce.

Bruce is a good option to deal for on the cheap and stick in the middle of a lineup. Despite a poor slash line, he has 15 RBI, third on the team. 

How valuable is the RBI stat when measuring a player’s value? 

Bruce has been a memorable part of this team’s core for a long time, but with his contract nearly up, he makes for an easy trade candidate—unfortunately in the sell-low category. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Cincinnati Reds are getting no love.

In the most recent season outlook, Grantland writer Ben Lindbergh’s NLC Preview uses a lot of data and makes mathematical projections, and not even the numbers are improving this team’s outlook. In case you haven’t got around to it, here’s an excerpt on why we can expect the Reds to suck in 2015:

Projected Record and Over/Under: 76-86 — PUSH. With [Joey] Votto injured, Ryan Ludwick and [Jay] Bruce banged up and slumping, [Brandon] Phillips declining, [Billy] Hamilton disappointing and [Zack] Cozart being Cozart, the Reds had one of the weakest lineups in baseball last season, despite [Devin] Mesoraco’s breakout and Todd Frazier’s dependable bat. Votto’s return, Bruce’s likely rebound and Marlon Byrd’s arrival should restore the scoring to a respectable level.

If GM Walt Jocketty keeps the roster intact, the Reds could rival the [Milwaukee] Brewers, but if he resigns himself to a rebuild and deals [Johnny] Cueto and Byrd at the deadline, Reds fans will be in for some bad baseball in the second half.

According to this outlook, if everything goes in the Reds’ favor, they should be good enough to compete with the Brewers.

It’s hard to knock something so objective. But, you clicked to read why we should be optimistic, and there are a few reasons, actually. The Grantland article makes several predictions that, if true, would probably cause the Reds to perform as poorly as everyone thinks they will. 

First, the article assumes Votto will miss about 40 days. That would be crippling. Second, the projections say Raisel Iglesias will finish with a 4.93 ERA. And finally, the rotation includes Jason Marquis right now, not Homer Bailey. While this is accurate, it shouldn’t be the case going past April.

The following is a short list of reasons to be optimistic for the Reds’ 2015 season:

1. The team has proven MLB talent. 

No one outside of Cincinnati cares that an almost identical roster managed 90-to-90-plus in three of the last five seasons. But the irrelevance doesn’t make those feats invalid. The roster is full of talent. 

Hardly anyone is talking about what the Reds offense could look like. But ESPN’s Doug Glanville is. He recently pegged the Reds offense as No. 2 in the National League in a live broadcast on SportsCenter.

With the arrival of Byrd, and hopefully prolonged health for the annual contributors, it’s hard not to be excited about the potential of this lineup, which features speed, patience and some power.

Everyone knows what they can expect from a healthy Votto, Phillips and Bruce. And then, of course, there’s Frazier and Mesoraco, who became contributors last season. But consider how the bench has performed this spring:

Brennan Boesch: .382/.379/.655
Chris Dominguez: .327/.333/.618
Kristopher Negron: .385/.475/.577

There are suitable options off the bench, a luxury the Reds haven’t enjoyed in a long time, minus former fan-favorite Chris Heisey, who is no longer with the team.

The Reds currently boast an MLB top-10 offense this spring, and at +36, only three teams in all of baseball have a better run differential. It’s not necessarily optimism at this point; it’s just what is physically happening.

2. The starting rotation has performed well this spring.

This is not by any means is an indicator for success. But it’s a lot better than a questionable rotation getting shelled before the season starts. The following is a list of ERAs currently held by the starting rotation:

Cueto: 3.86
Mike Leake: 0.64
Anthony DeSclafani: 3.51
Marquis: 3.46
Iglesias: 3.68

And one unforgettable detail is that this isn’t the 2015 rotation, just the one for April. The Reds still stand to gain Bailey and his 3.71 ERA from last year. His ZiPS projection is 3.54 in 173 innings, via Rotochamp.com, where you can see it next to every other projection, most of which all predict a good season out of Bailey.

We know what we’ll get from the front of the rotation because we’ve seen Cueto, Leake and Bailey for years. We know how good they are. We have absolutely no idea how MLB-good DeSclafani will be, or Iglesias.

I take their projections with a grain of salt only because they virtually have no MLB data to base anything on. They’re question marks. If even just one of them can replicate what Alfredo Simon gave them last season, the Reds will stand a good chance of winning four out of every five games.

3. 2014 can’t happen again.

Nothing analytical about this point, just pure subjective assertion. Everyone’s over the injury talk, and they should be—we’re like a week from Opening Day. Move on, but don’t forget a pivotal lesson we all learned: injuries to critical players have critical consequences.

We watched a team go from winning 90 games in 2013 to winning 76 games in 2014, with virtually an identical roster. Regardless of popular tough-guyisms bestowed upon us by local media, a team isn’t going to overcome the loss of that many vital contributors in a season.

Even local media that dismissed injury as a reason for 2014 are finding it harder to validate their previous convictions. Take this dramatic 180 from The Cincinnati Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty in his morning blog just this week:

I saw two more entities pick ’em to finish 5th in the Central. That’d be last, scorekeepers. SI.com and W. Leitch think that way. Leitch figures they’ll win 74. Ouch. I’m not known for bubbling optimism, and I’m no FanBoy, but … doesn’t anyone else believe this team can win 85-ish, not barter Cueto at the deadline and at least keep us interested through Labor Day? They can’t possibly be as hurt as last year, right? Jay Bruce had an aberration last season, not a definition, yes? Joey Votto will be back to his new self, getting OB 40 percent of the time, depending on others to provide the semi-meaningless RBI, yeah?

Why no love for the Redlegs?

Why no love for the Redlegs? A great question, as there were probably readers asking Daugherty the same thing last September when he wrote this:  

Do not go into the offseason believing this year was an injury-fueled aberration.

Do not believe that a healthy Joey Votto would have made a 15-game difference. Or even a 10-game swing. Ten games better would still put the Reds a game behind Pittsburgh, for the second wild card.

Do not think the season would have been a roaring success with Mat Latos healthy in April and May, with Homer Bailey whole now. Believing that health is the answer is a fool’s game. Who’s healthy this year might not be next year. 

This isn’t about any one columnist. I’m simply making the point that not even the most ardent and unforgiving of critics last year can stand by what they wrote. And we shouldn’t either.

The negative outlook surrounding the Reds, mathematically, incorporates data from a time when it didn’t matter. National analysts and computers only care about the data, which is never a bad thing. But that’s data from a bombed and depleted 76-win Reds team. That’s data on two pitchers, Iglesias and DeSclafani, who have virtually no MLB data on them. 

I think the outlook for this season is grossly underrated. And on that note, I must defer to Chuck D and Flavor Flav.

Stats courtesy of MLB.com, unless noted otherwise.

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