Kuzul

This is the final part of a series of articles outlining the decisions that the Cubs will need to make this offseason. You can read part four by following this link.

Jim Hendry has already said that he’s more concerned about making “two or three really good moves” than relying on the splash factor of one move. So, for those of you looking at the big name free agents with large price tags, or even a potential trade for Adrian Gonzalez, don’t get your hopes up too high.

Instead, look for the Cubs to get guys that fit the team and their budget. In all likelihood, one of those moves will be acquiring a first baseman and the other one or two will be adding some pitching, either in the rotation, the bullpen, or both.

At first base, the North Siders will be looking for someone who exhibits power from the left side and is good enough with the glove to lessen the impact of Aramis Ramirez’s fading defensive abilities and Starlin Castro’s growing pains.

Although one of the best left-handed sluggers over the past decade, Adam Dunn’s fairly high asking price, his defensive shortcomings, his type A status, and the almost certainty that the Nationals will offer arbitration, the overall cost in dollars, defense, and draft picks is just too high for serious consideration. I’m sure the team will do (or has already done) their due diligence on the off chance that he isn’t offered arbitration and his price tag comes down, but they’ll be concentrating elsewhere.

Adam LaRoche, Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena are the most likely free agent targets, each with some pop from the left side and at least an above average glove. Of course, each player has more than their share of strikeouts, but Overbay and Pena draw some walks to offset that.

Depending on his asking price, Aubrey Huff should also get a look, although he isn’t as known for his defense as the prior trio and is the eldest among the four (by one month over Overbay). I’m sure the Cubs would love to have a season of 35 doubles, 26 home runs, 83 walks, and only 91 strikeouts from their first baseman, but the Giants will probably make a very good push to keep him.

On the trade market, there’s absolutely no reason to not inquire on what collection of players it might take to land Adrian Gonzalez. With his Gold-Glove-caliber defense, 30 to 40 home run power, high walk totals, and his $6.2 million 2011 salary, he’s too great of a bargain to not look into. But it’s the cost in players in return, which teams like the Red Sox might drive up, that makes the proposition less likely.

Another player the Cubs have been linked to recently is the Rangers’ Chris Davis, a young left-handed hitter with great power, experience playing both corner infield positions, and some glaring plate discipline issues. It’s certainly an intriguing possibility, reuniting hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo with one of his former students, and leaving the option open to move Ramirez to first, should the need arise. Although there has been little mention of this trade since the story broke, I could see it happening.

If the Yankees decide to sign another outfielder (Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, perhaps), then don’t be surprised if the Cubs become linked to Nick Swisher, son of former Cubs catcher Steve Swisher. Although he had a significant dip in walks last season, Nick had always drawn a ton of walks and has continued to hit around 30 doubles and 30 home runs each season.

If the Cubs are instead looking for someone to take a flyer on to compete with (or in a reserve role behind) Tyler Colvin at first base, then you might see names like Hank Blalock, Eric Chavez, Brad Hawpe, Eric Hinske, Mike Jacobs, or non-tender candidates Willy Aybar, Dan Johnson, and Casey Kotchman bandied about.

There are a number of ways that they could go with starting pitchers, but I fully expect the Cubs to look into both Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a chance on one of Erik Bedard, Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Chris Young, or (if he’s non-tendered) Chien-Ming Wang.

Of that bunch, I find Garland to be far and away the most likely to end up with the Cubs. That’s not to say that he will or that the others won’t, but he has put together a pretty nice resume since being traded from the Cubs to the White Sox, including eight solid years with the South Siders and a very nice season with the Padres in 2010. Also, he might not demand quite so much money as the other options, making the potential negotiations go smoother and quicker.

As far as potential trade targets go, they may talk with the Rays about the availability of Wade Davis, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, and James Shields, but your guess is as good as mine about starting pitchers they might trade for.

To bolster the bullpen, I’m sure the team would be interested in re-signing Kerry Wood, but he would need to be willing to take a pay cut off of his $10.5 million salary in 2010. Other targets could include Grant Balfour, Chad Durbin, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, J.J. Putz, Jon Rauch, or Takashi Saito, depending upon their demands and whether or not some of them (Balfour or Francisco) are offered arbitration.

The only other free agent that I could see the Cubs signing is not a pitcher or first baseman, but a second baseman. Although such a move is pure speculation on my part, I believe that Orlando Hudson would be a great addition.

Hudson plays great defense, can hit well for a second baseman, provides a little bit of speed on the basepaths, and may have a somewhat modest salary seeing as he’s never earned more than $6.25 million in a season. Such a move obviously means that one or both of Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt would be sent on their way, but the signing of a player like Hudson could be a move that makes the Cubs’ 2011 playoff chances seem like less of a long shot.

Finally, there is one last way that the Cubs might add a player. With one spot open on their 40-man roster and the Rule Five Draft approaching, there is the possibility that the team could take a chance on someone left unprotected in another organization. Since I expect the North Siders to sign at least one free agent, I would be surprised to see them fill the last spot on their roster with a player eligible for the Rule Five Draft, but it could happen.

Just make sure to keep an eye out this offseason. The moves that end up having the biggest impact on this team might not be those involving bigger names.

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Carl Pavano is a fascinating example of the relationship between expectations and performance.

The 12-year major league veteran has pitched for 5 teams and earned over $47 million throughout the course of his career. There have been seasons in which he looked poised to become an ace (like in 2004 when he went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA and made his first All-Star team with the Florida Marlins), and there have been seasons in which he looked like he might have to retire from baseball (like in 2008 when he only managed to pitch 34.1 innings with a 5.77 ERA while with the New York Yankees).

It’s like watching Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Is he an ace, or is he garbage?

The answer, it seems, is that Pavano’s performance largely depends upon which team he is pitching for. Take a look at his career ERA at his last three extended stops (ignoring the 125 innings he threw for Cleveland in 2009).

Florida (2002-2004): 3.64, 485.0 innings

New York (2005-2008): 5.00, 145.2 innings

Minnesota (2009-2010): 3.97, 294.2 innings

That seems like a rather unusual career path. Even in his five years as a young, up-and-coming pitcher for the Montreal Expos, Pavano’s ERA was still a respectable 4.83 over 452.2 innings. Why would a player who seemed on the cusp of stardom suddenly forget how to pitch once he got to New York?

The truth is that some players simply can’t handle the limelight and constant media attention that comes with playing in a big market city like New York, Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles. There’s an intense amount of pressure to live up to expectations, which in Pavano’s case included a four-year, $38 million contract. Yankees’ fans expected Pavano to pitch like an ace and he crumbled, suffering countless injuries and setbacks (including missing the entire 2006 season) and managing only a meager nine wins in his four seasons in pinstripes.

Yet, once Pavano relocated to the small market haven of Minnesota, he reestablished himself as a major league pitcher. Now he’s a free agent again and on the look out for the last multi-year contract of his career.

Big market clubs better beware, though. Pavano doesn’t pitch so well when he’s sweating under the heat of all the cameras and lights focused on him.

What other players struggle to perform underneath the spotlight? Here’s a list of the top 10 riskiest free agents for big market teams.

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Oh Javier Vazquez, what happened to you? Such a promising young talent with the Montreal Expos who turned in quality starts against the Mets time after time.

You know what happened? The Yankees happened. In 2004, Vazquez went 14-10 for the Yankees so everyone proclaimed him as the next big thing. However, his 4.91 ERA was not so hot.

After a few more mediocre years with the White Sox, Vazquez finally put it all together in 2009 with Braves, finishing 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 strikeouts.

So of course the Yankees go and reacquire him. And how does he repay them? By posting a 5.91 ERA.

Vazquez is a free agent this offseason. He is 34 years old as of today. I didn’t even realize he was available until one of my buddies alerted me. At first, I was unsure of what to think, but now I believe Vazquez could be a viable option for the back end of the 2011 Mets rotation.

And here is why.

Vazquez is a National League pitcher, pure and simple. He finished with double figures in wins while posting a solid ERA in four straight years for a pretty bad team in Montreal.

Then he jumped leagues and his stats began to inflate. Regardless of the one year he pitched for Arizona, Vazquez posted ERAs of higher than 4.60 in three of his four AL seasons.

Then he jumped back to the NL in 2009 and had his career season. Finally, the 2010 season with the Yankees can arguably be considered his worst season.

So why would the Mets want to bring in an overpriced, aging starting pitcher?

Well, based on his performance last year, there probably won’t be too many teams knocking on his door with a blank check. His stock has obviously declined so maybe other teams may not be willing to take a chance. He has earned seven figures for the last six years, but most likely will not be offered that type of money.

I wonder if a move back to the NL as his career wanes would benefit Vazquez. Maybe a change of scenery would motivate him to execute better on the mound.

Now I’m certainly not saying the Mets should sign Vazquez to a three-year, $36 million deal like they did with Ollie P (sorry to remind you of that again). But maybe a one-year deal with a club option could work.

Vazquez could slide into the fifth starter position while Santana heals, and based on his performance, he could remain there or pitch long relief. Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Gee (or Mejia or another FA) and Vazquez. This rotation doesn’t exactly wow anyone, but it could be serviceable at least until Johan returns and if the Mets can consistently score runs (that’s a topic for a whole other article).

The problem with this is that there might be a team out there willing to take more of a chance on Vazquez and maybe sign him to a two or even three-year deal. Besides Cliff Lee, the starting pitching FA market is mediocre at best, so teams in need of a starter may resort to desperate measures, like Vazquez.

If his price tag and year commitment were too hefty, then I’d say stay away. But if no one acts on Vazquez, this could be the time to take the chance, even if it is just as an insurance policy. We saw how well R.A. Dickey worked out as an insurance policy last year, so I’m optimistic in thinking that maybe the same thing can happen with Vazquez.

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As the Philadelphia Phillies’ season came to an abrupt end against the Giants in the NLCS, the offseason went about itself the next day.

We have already seen J.C. Romero’s $4.5 million option not picked up and heard from Jayson Werth about him testing the free agent waters. All odds are pointing toward him not being in a Philadelphia uniform in 2011. With that being said, there are definitely some needs that this Phillies team has to address, and the most likely way to address that is through free agency.

We don’t have any major flaws and we don’t have much payroll that were going to want to add, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be aggressive in the free agent market for the positions that we need to address.

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That’s right, I said it.  Javier Vazquez would be a great fit for the New York Mets.  Last year, Vazquez was less than stellar for the Yankees.  He just couldn’t seem to get it going, but when he finally did, he did it in Citi Field.

During the Subway Series, Vazquez pitched one of the best games of his not-so-good season.  It seemed as if Vazquez benefited from the spacious dimensions of Citi Field.  He was throwing strikes and was keeping the ball in the park. 

With the uncertain status of Johan Santana, the Mets are in need of another starting pitcher.  Vazquez definitely won’t fill Santana’s shoes, but he will be a good piece for the bottom of the starting rotation for the Mets. 

The Mets don’t have a lot of money to spend on the free-agent market, so they most likely aren’t going to get Cliff Lee.  If Vazquez is asking for the right amount of money, then the Mets should definitely make a go for him. 

His game fits well into Citi Field, and he has shown that he can handle the hardest of the New York media.  He has had many fantastic years and there’s no reason to think that he can’t return to form with the Mets. 

The Mets can make this a low-risk/high-reward situation if they pay Vazquez the right money, and give him no more than a two-year deal. 

The worst-case scenario is that Vazquez continues to perform below his abilities and the Mets will have to hold on to him or try and get rid of him.  But, he won’t be owed that much money so it won’t be nearly as bad as the Oliver Perez situation, where he is making $12 million for just sitting around.

The best-case scenario will be that Vazquez returns to his old form, and Citi Field helps him be great.  He won’t get paid a fortune and he has the potential to be great.  I think that if Vazquez and his agent are asking for a reasonable contract, then the Mets should definitely make a run for him. 

I’m always in the mood for a low-risk/high-reward signing.  The Mets and Sandy Alderson should definitely look into this. 

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Ever since Javier Vazquez made a name for himself in 2004, after giving up a grand slam to Johnny Damon in the American League Championship series, Yankee fans have dreaded the sight of the right-hander on the mound. 

When the Yankees traded for Vazquez in the 2009 offseason, mixed feelings were going around. He was coming off an incredible, Cy-Young worthy season, during which he recorded a 2.87 ERA for the Braves, but Yankee fans still had a hollow spot in their hearts for Vazquez.

To everyone’s dismay—and to some, their surprise—Vazquez revived, and sealed those horrible feelings in the 2010 season. Finishing with a 5.32 ERA in 26 starts, Vazquez hurt the Yankees more than he helped.

For a trade that seems horrible for the Yankees at initial glance, you would think that Yankee fans—of all people—would be up-in-arms over the Yankees decision to bring Vazquez back to New York.  

However, while Yankee fans may be very loquacious, they are equally intelligent.

When measuring the success of the trade, clearly you need to measure both sides: the players the team received, and the players the team lost.

On the Yankees side, they gave away Melky Cabrera, a very popular switch-hitting young outfielder who played the first five seasons of his career as a Yankee, and Arodys Vizcaino, a 19-year old prospect who pitched to a 2.13 ERA with the Staten Island Yankees, and who was ranked as the 69th best prospect in 2010 by Baseball America.

Cabrera, now 25, had a sub-par year for the Braves, ultimately ending in his release. Had he stayed with the Yankees, he would have served as a fourth, or maybe even fifth, outfielder. In other words, he would have made minimal difference.

Vizcaino, on the other hand, presents an interesting situation. Very successful, young stars, are always a point of interest. But in baseball, even a No. 1 rank usually has little predictive value, let alone a 69th ranking. (Not to mention he was put on the disabled list in July with a torn elbow ligament, which is usually horrible news for a young pitcher.)

On the Braves side, they sent over Vazquez, along with Boone Logan, a 25-year old left handed relief pitcher.

Vazquez, as was mentioned earlier, did little help to the Yankees. He had one good run in June and July (when he pitched to an ERA just above three) but was otherwise atrocious. 

However, if Vazquez were not there, we have little idea what the Yankees’ rotation would look like. Given what we saw in 2010, the Yankees wouldn’t have gotten anything much better from their minor league system, or bullpen. Yes, it is true that the Yankees may have been more inclined to go after Cliff Lee if Vazquez was not around, but that would have had its costs as well, probably including the Yankees young catching prospect Jesus Montero.

Logan, on the other hand, may have made the deal all together worth it. In 51 appearances, Logan had a 2.93 ERA, and struck out 38 batters in 40 innings pitched this season for the Yankees. At just 25, Logan can be a very valuable left handed pitcher in the Yankees’ future.

As quick as many may be to criticize the Yankees for this trade, or come up with reasons to hate Vazquez, it is important to weigh both sides of the equation. Yes, the Yankees gave up a young outfielder and a pitching prospect for virtually a useless starter, but the two pieces they gave up have questionable values. Furthermore, they gained an extremely valuable member of their bullpen that may succeed for years to come.

Trades are tricky, and they usually end up having unpredictable results. In this case, it may or may not have worked out, but it won’t be until years past until we truly know the value of this trade.

For the top analysis of the week, subscribe to Bronx Weekly. To read more thoughts and analysis, check out my blog. Subscribe to my articles and blog posts here. Also, follow me on Twitter, send me an e-mail, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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You might not know it, but Javier Vazquez has been one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball since 2000.

He has pitched for the second-most innings with 2,320.1 innings, and is second in strikeouts with 2,122.

Vazquez cost the Yankees $11.5 million with the most awful year of his career this season: 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 157.1 IP, 32 HR.

With the Atlanta Braves in 2009, he was fourth of the National League Cy Young Award voting. He looks to regain that form by rejoining a rebuilding National League team, perhaps the Washington Nationals.

First of all, with the stats he had with the Yankees, he probably won’t get more than a $4 million-per-year contract. The Nationals certainly will be able to get him even with one of the smallest budgets in the league.

Second, he will be 35 years old heading into next season.

A contending team certainly would not want a home run happy, aging pitcher with less guarantee than a younger arm.

The Washington Nationals are far from contenders, and they need a durable starting pitcher. However, will they want a pitcher with an ERA of five that wins 10 games a season? They’ll accept him gladly.

Vasquez himself stated interest in pitching in the Nation’s capital. Two words: perfect fit.

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The New York Yankees need a fourth starter for the ALCS. But the one they named was wrong. It should not have been A.J. Burnett, but rather Ivan Nova.

Nova, whom the Yankees refused to trade, was a major reason that they didn’t get Cliff Lee from the Mariners midseason. He has since justified their retaining him. Except for one very bad start that skewed his respectable 4.50 ERA upward, he has been quite a serviceable pitcher both as a starter and a reliever. And he’s only 23, in his first season.

There is a very good reason that Nova was the “not Lee.” Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher in the present. But Nova could be the pitcher for the future. That’s why he was rightly put in the “untouchable” category earlier reserved for the likes of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

The homegrown core of the Yankees rotation is still Andy Pettitte (for now), Phil Hughes and now Ivan Nova. Of the three “hired hands,” CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez, only Sabathia has more or less worked out. Two-fifths of the earlier rotation was a question mark, and it came from the experienced pitchers. 

Some years ago, the future Yankees rotation was something like Chien Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, among others. Of these, only Hughes has become the present, with Wang having collapsed, Kennedy having been traded and Chamberlain been sent to the bullpen.

Besides Kennedy (who pitched well for the Arizona Diamondbacks this year), the Yankees also traded away Ross Ohlendorf (along with Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutchen), for a two-month “rental” in Xavier Nady plus reliever Damaso Marte. Ohlendorf could have been a full-time starter, and Tabata a fielder by now (although the other two represented no loss, being players more typical of Pirates than Yankees).

Worse yet, the Bombers traded a promising prospect, Arodys Vizcaino (plus the declining Melky Cabrera) for Vazquez, after a late season surge put him into the Cy Young conversation. He pitched nowhere that well this year, albeit in the American, not National, League.

The core of the Yankees for the past 15 years has been Jorge Posada behind the plate, Derek Jeter at shortstop and Mariano Rivera as a closer. More recently, they were joined by Robinson Cano at second and (until he was traded), Melky Cabrera in center field. At one time, the “backbone” of the Yankees team was “up the middle,” with the corner positions being filled by hired hands.

Some would say that in the postseason, you need your most experienced hands. The flip side of that is that you need to give experience to get experienced players.

And it was T Boone Pickens, the American oil man that defined a veteran as an 18-year-old rookie who has survived a month of campaigning. That said, there is no better month for Nova to become a veteran.

A medieval philosopher once opined that if you must lose a battle, it was better to lose with an army of “native sons” than with an army of mercenaries. The reason was that your (surviving) native sons would fight for you another day, with greater experience, while the mercenaries wouldn’t.

With the ability to buy almost any player, the Yankees have unfortunately overvalued veteran players from other teams and undervalued homegrown players. After having done so too often in the recent past, refusing to trade Nova for Lee was a good first step in reversing course. They should have followed up by putting Nova in the postseason rotation where Lee would otherwise have been.

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Throughout the 2010 season, the New York Yankees had many pitching issues.  Like with A.J. Burnett, he was about as frustrating a pitcher you can come across.  What about Andy Pettitte, going down with an injury mid-season and forcing a spot-starter to go in his place.

And then there’s Javier Vasquez.  After starting the season much like Chien Ming-Wang did last year, Vasquez had a stretch when he was as good as anyone pitching on a mound.

However, since the All-Star break, it seems like Vasquez has lost it, whether it be mentally or physically.  He went through a “dead-arm” stage where he couldn’t even break the 90’s.  Now, manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland as well as numerous Yankees fans are scratching their heads.  “What happened to him?” they’re asking themselves.  “Where’s the guy that almost won the Cy Young last year?” others say.

I believe that Vasquez hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, and I know this sounds like a cliche, but I think its because he’s not in the NL anymore.

Think about it, remember that Game seven collapse in ’04 when he gave up that homer to Johnny Damon?  Yeah, so do I.   But then, out of nowhere, here comes Javy last year pitching like a maniac and striking out batters 238 times.  He also had a 2.87 ERA compiled along with a 15-10 record.

So then why has he under-performed this year?  Could it be because he just can’t pitch in New York, or that he is like A.J. Burnett and is as hot an cold as a tea kettle in 5 minutes (but then again, the tea kettle’s more consistent).

Again, what I think the problem is is that Vasquez is meant for the National League.

However, now he is off the roster and Girardi might bring him up in the WS if the Yanks get there.  What makes the scenario even more interesting is that New York will need a fourth starter this year unlike last, and honestly, do you want to go to Burnett done two games to one or even worse, three to none?  I sure as heck know I don’t. 

Also, what if New York’s up two to one of 3 to none, do Joe Girardi and the Yankees use Vasquez in a situation when the other team’s back are against the wall?

Only time will tell, but it will make for a interesting situation if it does indeed occur.

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While the playoffs are now on the front burner, in the back of every baseball fan’s mind, or the front if your team has been eliminated from contention, is what moves the team will make this offseason.

Free agency is always a hot bed for debate, and every year there will be a fair share of diamonds in the rough as well as big time busts. Often times, contracts are a sign of the free agent class as a whole and not necessarily what the player is worth. Once the top tier guys start to get signed, teams that missed out often overpay for second tier guys, and so on.

So here are 10 players that I think have set themselves up to earn a big payday this off seasons, thanks to big seasons in 2010, or simply for lack of better options at their position, but will fall short of expectations not live up to their contract.

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