The New York Yankees will have a very different look to their offense this season.
With the key additions of Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran in the offseason, this team has promise again.
Here is a look at the most crucial players for the Yankees going into the 2014 season.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
The New York Yankees made a big splash during the early stages of free agency by signing free-agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year deal worth $153 million. It was a deal that was first reported by the New York Daily News‘ Mark Feinsand with the financial information later confirmed by Feinsand.
Ellsbury is a good player, but he is unlikely to be productive enough to give the Yankees a good return on their investment over the course of the entire contract. Ellsbury is being paid like he is a $20 million-a-year player, but his production over his career doesn’t warrant that type of investment.
The Ellsbury signing is made all the more curious due to the fact that the Yankees already had a comparable player on their roster in Brett Gardner. While Gardner may not be the exact equal of Ellsbury, the gap between the two players is not vast. New York is going to pay a ridiculous premium for a slight player upgrade, more than five times more than the player it already had under team control.
The 30-year-old Gardner is only 18 days older than Ellsbury. Both players are used to playing in the competitive AL East. Gardner’s career slash line of .268/.352/.381 is not too far off from Ellsbury‘s line of .297/.350/.439, as Ellsbury‘s higher slugging numbers are somewhat inflated by his near-MVP season in 2011 when he hit 32 home runs.
On the basepaths, Gardner has an 80 percent success rate stealing bases while Ellsbury is closer to 84 percent. Defensively, according to Fangraphs, Gardner has a career UZR/150 of 23.0, while Ellsbury sits at 10.2.
Ellsbury is scheduled to make $21.1 million in 2014, the first season of his new seven-year deal. Gardner is projected to make $4 million by MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes next season. Ellsbury had a 5.8 WAR last season while Gardner had only a 4.2 WAR. But Gardner actually has a higher WAR over the past four years, coming in at 15.7 over Ellsbury‘s 14.8.
Injuries have obviously had a big impact on Ellsbury‘s career numbers with the Boston Red Sox and injury concerns can’t be discounted moving forward. Ellsbury has shown that he is a tough player, but he has played in only 59 percent (384-648) of Boston’s schedule over the past four years.
The numbers for both players are very comparable across the board and that’s the problem: New York reached for a player when it didn’t need to.
In retrospect, the Yankees would have been better served looking at extending Gardner to a contract that would have paid far less than what New York just spent on Ellsbury. New York could have then taken the money that the team just spent on Ellsbury and improved other areas of the roster, specifically the pitching staff and infield.
Ellsbury was the shiny new toy this winter, and New York has struggled recently when it comes to signing the right big-name free agents. It has repeatedly placed name recognition over value in its decision-making process. Gardner is a good enough player to have provided New York with the production it needed short-term and long-term.
The Yankees wanted Ellsbury, but he didn’t fill an immediate need on their roster. For a team looking to get back on top, spending big money on the wrong player is a surefire way for the Yankees’ long-term struggles to continue.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs
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So much for the New York Yankees being out of cash.
Robinson Cano, Jay-Z and others are likely not amused to find out that the Yankees have reportedly agreed to a deal with center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, one of free agency’s top prizes.
The report comes from Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick and Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe added further context to the blockbuster deal:
Ellsbury is best known for his blazing speed that allows him to be an elite defender in center field and steal a plethora of bases when healthy. The seven-year pro appeared in 134 games in 2013, won a World Series and had a .298 batting average, .355 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .426.
While 53 RBI and nine home runs are nice, Ellsbury made his money defensively and on the basepaths with 52 stolen bases.
For his efforts in 2011, when he batted .321 with 32 home runs and 105 RBI, swiping 39 bases and scoring 119 runs, Ellsbury finished second in the AL MVP voting, earned a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and was named an All Star. He appeared in 158 games that season, his healthiest to date.
As is the case with any free-agency signing, the world of social media had something to say about this one.
While Cano and the Yankees are reportedly far apart on compensation, it appears the team has been low-balling the second baseman. Grantland’s Jonah Keri says it is time to stop playing around with the negotiations and get back to winning championships with Cano in the fold:
The Yankees themselves have reportedly said there is still room for Cano after the deal, but clearly, the Ellsbury deal places additional pressure on Cano’s camp to come to terms, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post:
There is also the sarcastic route when it comes to Cano’s situation, which Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press took brilliantly:
It appears New York is once again in the driver’s seat when it comes to throwing cash in an attempt to build a contender. Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan passes on a stunning figure sure to make Yankee-haters cringe:
As always, it appears baseball is above all other sports when it comes to spending. The Ellsbury deal does nothing more than solidfy that notion. ESPN’s Andrew Brandt contrasts how the deal stacks up to every deal in NFL history:
Bryan Fischer adds more context to some of the NFL’s top stars (hint, kids—play baseball):
Not every reaction to the deal was positive, mostly because Ellsbury has an iffy history when it comes to health. Well, that and this is the Yankees. And truckloads of cash. Peter King of Sports Illustrated and The MMQB brings up perhaps the best point:
Pair the fact Ellsbury is often injured with the fact he’s reached the scary age of 30, and it is easy to see why folks such as ESPN’s Keith Olbermann are not thrilled with the move:
Which is fine. $153 million is a ton of cash, and how it is distributed over the length of the deal is something worth bringing up:
There is another side to this coin. The Yankees are not necessarily paying for a name. Despite injury woes, Ellsbury has been one of baseball’s best on the paths, which surely drove up the price (as did the whole leaving Boston for New York thing):
Besides, can we really be mad at Ellsbury? It’s far from his fault the Yankees splurge in this excessive fashion simply because they can. Ellsbury is surely grinning ear-to-ear right now:
Sarcasm aside, and all due respect to Ellsbury, something may be wrong when his name is brought up in the same breath as Lionel Messi, LeBron James and Sidney Crosby. Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star does so to shocking results:
Regardless, here we are once again with the Yankees. In a classic maneuver, New York has managed to outbid all other contenders on the market for a player of their liking. For better or worse, this one is set in stone.
For now, we’ll just let this one sink in a bit.
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Jacoby Ellsbury, one of the top free-agent talents on the open market, has reportedly signed a seven-year deal with the New York Yankees.
New York Daily News reporter Mark Feinsand had the news:
Feinsand also added more detail:
MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch notes that there’s an option for an eighth year as well:
Boston Globe reporter Pete Abraham offered additional info:
The veteran center fielder is coming off one of his best—and most healthy—seasons in recent years, capped off with an epic World Series victory.
In 134 games during the 2013 campaign, Ellsbury compiled a batting average of .298, an on-base percentage of .355 and a slugging percentage of .426.
He had 172 hits and 53 RBI in that same span, along with a respectable nine home runs and an eye-popping 52 stolen bases.
The seven-year pro is probably best known for his elite speed, allowing him to cover ground in the outfield and steal bases with ease. He’s also one of the game’s best leadoff men and proved that he can come back from injury in a big way this year.
Ellsbury’s best season in the majors came in 2011, when he captured both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards, plus made the All-Star team.
While the Yankees will be hoping that he can stay healthy—something that hasn’t exactly been a given during Ellsbury’s career—he should make an immediate impact at the top of the lineup, as a baserunner and in the outfield.
With career totals of 865 hits, 314 RBI, 241 stolen bases and 65 home runs, the 30-year-old Ellsbury has already put together a stellar body of work and only promises to build on that in New York.
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It’s impossible to read anything about Jacoby Ellsbury‘s free agency that doesn’t mention his injury history. “Point X, Point Y, Point Z, but then there’s his injury history,” they all (basically) say.
And rightfully so. According to Baseball Prospectus’ injury database, the up-until-now Boston Red Sox star has missed 256 games with injuries between 2010 and 2013. The speedy center fielder’s injury history is not the elephant in the room; it’s more like the blue whale in the room (behold a handy graphic for reference).
But this is a situation where it’s appropriate to ask what’s fair. Is Ellsbury‘s injury history a thing to dwell on, or is merely acknowledging it as far as one should go?
In essence: How large should it loom in his free agency?
My confession is that I’ve tended to dwell on it, with my usual line being that Ellsbury can’t be trusted to stay healthy in light of his track record. So far as I can tell, that’s a common opinion.
But without giving too much away at this juncture, I’d now say that dwelling on Ellsbury‘s injury history isn’t really fair. There’s one notable injury in Ellsbury‘s past that does warrant some serious scrutiny, but it and the others deserve to be treated as water that’s safely under the bridge.
We’re all familiar with the big injuries on Ellsbury‘s record: the busted rib cage he suffered early in 2010, the partially dislocated right shoulder he endured early in 2012 and, most recently, the compression fracture he suffered in his right foot late in 2013.
Ellsbury‘s ribs never healed in 2010, a season in which he was limited to only 18 games. The shoulder injury in 2012 cost him 79 games. This year’s compression fracture knocked him out for 19 games.
As for what these injuries have in common, I’ll give the floor to Ellsbury‘s agent: the mighty Scott Boras.
“He’s a durable player,” Boras told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in September. “The only [significant] injuries he’s had are collision injuries. They were due to exterior forces.”
Boras is right, of course. Ellsbury‘s rib troubles in 2010 stemmed from his nasty collision with Adrian Beltre in April, which we can relive here:
That’s 220 pounds colliding with 195 pounds. No wonder the result was “Crunch!”
The initial collision cost Ellsbury 37 games. When he came off the disabled list in May, he was back on it just a few days later. It was the same story when he tried another comeback in August.
There were questions about Ellsbury‘s toughness along the way, and there was apparently some grumbling in Boston’s clubhouse about his preference to rehab away from the team in Arizona.
“I don’t know what’s going on with Jacoby,” said Kevin Youkilis, according to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. “I don’t think any of us really know.”
Youk added, “One thing I can say is there’s a lot of guys here that are hurt and supporting the team. We wish Jacoby was here supporting us, too.”
Lots of controversy, to be sure. What there wasn’t, however, were any lingering effects.
Ellsbury came back in 2011 and hit .321 with a .928 OPS, 32 home runs and 39 stolen bases while playing excellent defense in center field. In the number-crunchy opinion of FanGraphs WAR, he had the best season of any player in the league.
Make that one collision injury overcome.
For the sake of convenience, we’ll flash forward to the other collision injury Ellsbury has overcome: the compression fracture he suffered in late August of 2013.
Ellsbury was able to play through the pain for a few games, but he was forced to shut it down after aggravating the injury September 5.
There were some doomy thoughts going around. And when Ellsbury did return, he acknowledged that the injury wasn’t fully healed. That was an alarming statement, especially coming from a guy whose game depends so largely on speed. A speedster can’t be speedy without healthy feet, after all.
But what did Ellsbury do? He went on to steal six bases in the postseason, including one in each of the first four games of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. He was also able to play center field in each of Boston’s 16 postseason games.
Make that two collision injuries overcome.
If it was just the rib and foot injuries on Ellsbury‘s record, I doubt anyone would be overly worried about his injury history. These two injury incidents would be there as things that cost him games, but not as things that ultimately hindered his performance in any tangible way.
…But then there’s the other collision injury on Elllsbury’s record. You know, this one:
It looked bad when it happened, and it proved to be about as bad as it looked. Ellsbury was on the DL for about three months.
And now, well over a year later, it’s this injury that sticks out the most on Ellsbury‘s record. That’s because of how it has coincided with the one aspect of Ellsbury‘s free agency that has some teams worried: his loss of power.
This according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com:
Even elite free agents elicit varying opinions from baseball people, so the disagreement among some over center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is typical.
One rival executive said that his team’s statistical analysis rated Ellsbury as the top Red Sox player last season, ahead of even second baseman Dustin Pedroia.
Others in the industry, however, are wary of Ellsbury’s diminished power—he has hit only 13 home runs in 880 at-bats over the past two seasons.
Whether teams are chalking the disappearance of Ellsbury‘s power up to his shoulder injury is something I can’t tell you. My guess, however, is that the opinions on this are also varying. Because while there’s clearly correlation at work, the question of whether there’s causation is not an easy one to answer.
We’ll get to that in good time. But first, let’s take a look at the correlation. If we use FanGraphs data to stack up Ellsbury‘s pre-2011 power, his 2011 power and his post-shoulder injury power, we get a picture that looks like this:
The degree to which Ellsbury‘s post-shoulder injury power looks like his pre-2011 power is uncanny, and that’s obviously not a good look for his free agency.
Teams can look at this data and come to two conclusions. One is that Ellsbury‘s power in 2011 was a total fluke and that he’s gone back to being the player he was, in which case his shoulder injury is neither here nor there. Or they can view his 2011 power as legit and his shoulder injury as the thing that killed it.
It wouldn’t be the first time that a shoulder injury did such a thing. Most notably, Adrian Gonzalez’s power hasn’t been the same since he underwent surgery on his right shoulder after 2010. Fellow Los Angeles Dodger Matt Kemp seemed to have zero strength in his left shoulder when he was able to play in 2013 following offseason surgery of his own.
Like Gonzalez and Kemp, Ellsbury‘s shoulder injury was to his follow-through shoulder. So where we already had numbers that aren’t encouraging, here we have a narrative that’s not encouraging.
So what is encouraging?
A couple things, starting with the fact that the larger sample size doesn’t tell the whole story.
Around the All-Star break this year, Boras had this to say to Peter Abraham and others regarding Ellsbury‘s shoulder: “Last year he came back early and played. But his shoulder strength was not there.”
Then he added:
As the strength started coming, he’s now made the adjustment to understand more about that he does have that strength. Now he’s starting to certainly let the ball get deeper. I can see more power and lift coming to him. He understands the mental side of it, too. He’s now back to being healthy.
There are numbers to support Boras‘ claim. Through his first 49 games in 2013, Ellsbury had 12 extra-base hits and an .087 ISO. But beginning May 26, he picked up five extra-base hits in his next four games and was off to the races.
Ultimately, he posted a .152 ISO over his last 406 plate appearances, which spanned 85 games. After hitting one home run in his first 49 games, he hit eight the rest of the way.
Naturally, this didn’t happen entirely by accident.
One major change was in Ellsbury‘s ground-ball rate, which began to dwindle in June after peaking at darn near 60 percent in May. With data courtesy of FanGraphs, we get this progression:
Because ground balls don’t tend to go for extra-base hits, fewer ground balls are most definitely what’s best for power. Line drives and fly balls are better, and the latter is obviously what leads to the ball going over the fence.
Ellsbury‘s decline in ground balls didn’t immediately beget a rise in fly balls. But that eventually did happen in the second half. After posting a 27.3 fly-ball percentage in the first half, Ellsbury posted a 30.0 fly-ball percentage in the second half. Likewise, his HR/FB rate jumped up from 3.4 to 12.5.
The catch is that Ellsbury‘s power didn’t return to the level it was at in 2011. But the thing about his 2011 season is that the extreme power he was showing off wasn’t a season-long thing. It was mainly a second-half thing, as these splits show:
That Ellsbury‘s power skyrocketed wasn’t entirely a fluke. He did hit more fly balls, and plenty of those went over the fence. Even still, to go from a .175 ISO to a .298 ISO from one half to another is pretty ridiculous, and the odds of Ellsbury sustaining that power never were that great.
But that’s not to say that Ellsbury‘s real power potential is his pre-2011 power. Maybe his real power potential is the power he was showing off before the All-Star break in 2011.
If so, that puts the power he was displaying down the stretch in an interesting light. It’s not too dissimilar from his pre-break power in 2011:
On the whole, Ellsbury wasn’t hitting for as much power as he was before the break in 2011. But it’s encouraging that his second-half fly-ball percentage was pretty close to the one he had before the break in 2011 and equally encouraging that his HR/FB rate was a smidgen better.
Ellsbury was on a pace to hit 21 home runs when the All-Star break rolled around in 2011. After the break this year, he put himself on a 22-homer pace.
If a 20-homer guy is who Ellsbury really is, then, well, it’s a good look for him that that’s what he was down the stretch in 2013. This was a time when, if you believe his agent, he was finally enjoying the benefits of a healthy shoulder. The numbers we just looked at say that’s a plausible stance.
What’s more is that it’s actually debatable that the residual weakness in Ellsbury‘s right shoulder was even the cause of his lack of power early on in 2013.
Dan Farnsworth did a terrific analysis for FanGraphs that compared Ellsbury‘s 2011 swings to his 2013 swings. But rather than Ellsbury‘s upper half—as in, the half where his right shoulder resides—Farnsworth kept coming back to Ellsbury‘s lower half as the problem.
There were timing and movement issues with Ellsbury‘s right leg, leading to this note:
This greater side-to-side movement with the front leg makes the hip action longer and slower, forcing him to engage his upper body more to drive balls over the fence. In Ellsbury’s case, he’s not strong enough to hit a wealth of home runs with just his arms, complicated by the fact that he may have been dealing with some weakness in that front shoulder from his 2012 injury, as many suggested earlier this year.
In other words, Ellsbury‘s shoulder was probably a contributing factor. Not definitely the contributing factor.
Farnsworth ended with his two cents on Ellsbury: “If he is able to get a few full seasons of plate appearances, I feel comfortable betting on a 20-plus home run season or two, with the floor of a high AVG guy who plays great defense and steals a bunch of bags.”
So we have numbers suggesting that Ellsbury could be a 20-homer guy going forward, and we also have a swing expert suggesting that he could be a 20-homer guy going forward. That sounds a lot better than numbers and a swing expert suggesting that Ellsbury‘s power is forever compromised thanks to his 2012 shoulder injury, don’t you think?
I think so, too. Because if that shoulder injury can be chalked up as water under the bridge, then it’s in the same category as the other two injuries Ellsbury was able to overcome without any real difficulties: the ribcage troubles in 2010 and the compression fracture this year.
We set out to answer the question of how large Ellsbury‘s injury history should loom in his free agency. Due to the nature of them, the three key injuries he’s dealt with in recent years aren’t the kind that are a threat to keep popping up as he progresses. After that, we determined that none of those key injuries are a legit threat to keep Ellsbury from being the player he has the potential to be.
Short version and grand conclusion all in one: Ellsbury‘s injury history is there to be acknowledged, but it shouldn’t keep him from being paid what he’s worth.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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A few weeks into the offseason, the open market isn’t quite yet, well, open for business.
The biggest name to sign a deal with a new team is…Tim Hudson? The former Atlanta Braves pitcher, who agreed to a two-year, $23 million deal with the San Francisco Giants on Monday, is a perfectly fine get for a team that’s been on the lookout for pitching.
But with all apologies to Hudson, who has had himself a great career to this point, he’s also a 38-year-old coming off a broken ankle that cost him the second half of 2013.
That profile doesn’t exactly scream “big-name signing.”
It’s not uncommon for it to take time before the hot stove starts cooking. The moving and shaking and wheeling and dealing usually gets going around the time of the winter meetings, which are coming up in early December, a little less than three weeks from now.
But aside from the timing and what seems to be a consensus opinion that this free-agent class is lacking, it’s also possible that there’s another dynamic to blame for this offseason’s slow start.
Here’s a hint: His initials are Alex Rodriguez.
It may seem a tad trite to bang the A-Rod drum as reason behind why more of the top-tier names, like Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Ervin Santana haven’t signed, but there just may be something to that stance.
You’re well aware by now that Rodriguez, who played last season even after being suspended by Major League Baseball for 211 games last August for his alleged involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, is appealing the ban.
The arbitration process, though, which didn’t begin until after the playoffs, remains in a holding pattern, as the two sides are continuing with their no-love-lost “courtship,” which was yet again delayed last week when Rodriguez fell ill.
At least the hearings have advanced to the stage where witnesses are being called, with the latest expected to be Yankees president Randy Levine, according to the New York Daily News.
When might all this actually come to an end with a ruling? For an update, here’s Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York:
The 211-game suspension should be upheld, reduced or eliminated by Christmas, probably a bit sooner. After the appeal hearing’s conclusion, arbitrator Fredric Horowitz will have 25 days to decide. He can come to a decision at any point.
So what does this have to do with the free-agent market exactly? As is always the case this time of year, it comes down to money, cash, dough, the green stuff.
Whatever you want to call it, the Yankees may or may not have a lot more lying around, depending on the outcome of Rodriguez’s appeal. That’s because next year, the Yankees third baseman is due at least $25 million—and in all likelihood upward of $31 mill, if he hits merely six more home runs to tie Willie Mays for fourth all-time.
That’s quite a chunk of change that the Yankees could be throwing at another prime free agent or three this winter.
Part of the reason this is so important is that the club is attempting to stay under the $189 million payroll for 2014 to avoid once again having to pay the ever-increasing luxury-tax penalty.
One imagines that, in such a scenario, not knowing whether a potential $31 million will fall on the debit or credit side of the ledger could be the sort of thing that pushes pause on a potential spending spree.
And not just for the Yankees. So much of free agency is about agents and reps determining and defining the market for their players, which becomes especially challenging when one of the deepest-pocketed teams in the sport can’t say for sure whether they can even open up their wallet, let alone flash the cash.
Cano, in particular, is in a tricky spot. As the Yankees’ longtime star second baseman and top name on the market, he’s looking to land a massive contract. Because his maybe-former teammate is holding things up, though, Cano already has indicated that he’s willing to wait until the new year—if it takes that long—according to John Harper of the Daily News.
To be sure, Rodriguez’s appeal process is far from the only obstacle that’s standing in the way of the inevitable domino effect that comes when a big name or two finally does sign.
As mentioned above, getting the general managers together in one place—that would be the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla., from Dec. 9-12—often proves to be baseball’s version of an aphrodisiac for trading.
Plus, there’s that whole hold-up surrounding the as-yet unresolved agreement between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball with regards to the posting process for Japanese players. Caught in the middle of that is star pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, who arguably would be the top available arm on the market—if made available.
But in the end, it’s hard to ignore or argue that Rodriguez’s ongoing (never-ending?) appeal isn’t hijacking, or at least stalling, this year’s free agency.
Plus, it’s fun to pull a page out of the league’s book and blame A-Rod.
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From an outside perspective, Major League Baseball’s offseason can be difficult to understand. Unlike the NBA, NFL and NHL, a salary cap isn’t present to handcuff the ability of an organization to retain stars with expiring pacts.
Yet, despite the lack of a unified budget for each team, owners and front office executives have limits for each player during the hot-stove season.
Just two years ago, the St. Louis Cardinals allowed Albert Pujols to walk in free agency when the Los Angeles Angels offered him a contract well in excess of $200 million. Instead of folding the tent, St. Louis handed the first base job to a young player developed through its system named Allen Craig.
Due to Craig’s limited service time, his salary was just $495,000 in 2012. With the money allocated to a potential Pujols deal, the Cardinals gave Adam Wainwright a contract extension and signed Carlos Beltran to help fill the power void in the middle of their lineup.
This winter, expect similar decisions to be made all around baseball. When a star leaves in free agency, the door is opened for a young player within the system to become a starter and dollars to be allocated differently throughout the roster.
Here are four top prospects ready to fill the shoes of free agents on the path to departing their 2013 teams.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Oscar Taveras in, Carlos Beltran out.
If you think St. Louis is going to eschew logic and overpay for Beltran’s age-37 season, you haven’t been paying attention to the way the Cardinals do business lately.
Despite raking on the national stage in October, Beltran’s on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and WAR all slipped considerably from 2012 to 2013. It’s hard to imagine St. Louis showing him the door if he was willing to come back at a below-market-value rate, but if the star outfielder is looking for one last lucrative deal, it won’t come from the team that has his replacement ready in the minors.
If not for injury, baseball fans would have seen Oscar Taveras in the majors in 2013. As Bleacher Report’s MLB Prospects Lead Writer Mike Rosenbaum wrote about the 21-year-old outfielder in September, Taveras will be able to replace Beltran’s bat quickly.
Per Rosenbaum: “Taveras has 25-plus-home run potential; lift to swing; ball has carry; extra-base machine. Hits same-side pitching; makes loud contact to all fields; comfortable hitting any pitch in any count.“
2. Boston Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr. in, Jacoby Ellsbury out.
While Tavares, rated as the No. 3 prospect in baseball by Rosenbaum, is simply too talented to block by re-signing Beltran to another deal, Boston’s outfield shuffle will have more to do with philosophy than making the team better in 2014.
As I wrote when pointing out why Ellsbury wouldn’t be a smart target for the New York Yankees, Boston’s offense with him atop the order was a much more prolific group than it was when he was injured. Although Bradley Jr. projects to be a regular player on a first-division team, he’s not going to come close to replacing the 2011 AL MVP runner-up in Ellsbury.
Boston’s front office knows this, but don’t expect it to suddenly jump back into the business of handing out contracts in excess of seven years or $100 million.
Don’t believe me? Listen to what team president Larry Lucchino had to say when appearing as a guest on WEEI in Boston.
“I don’t want to rule out anything, except that there will be a presumption against doing any very long-term deals,” Lucchino said. “I think we’ve crossed that bridge and we realized that there’s a better way to spend money, that free agency and long-term deals are not the best way to build a franchise or to succeed over time. So there is a very strong presumption against that.”
3. Atlanta Braves: Christian Bethancourt in, Brian McCann out.
Free agent Brian McCann’s impending departure from Atlanta, after nine highly successful seasons, is often tied to the Braves’ belief in power-hitting catcher Evan Gattis. While Gattis‘ breakout 2013 (21 HR, .480 SLG) is reason to shy away from overpaying McCann, it’s the presence of another promising young catcher in Atlanta that should keep fans from worrying about their future behind the plate.
When Christian Bethancourt was called up in September, after posting a .741 OPS with Double-A Mississippi, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez raved about his talent to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.
“We think the world of [Bethancourt] defensively,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “He’s had a nice season offensively at Double-A. We’ll bring him up here and just let him get some experience.“
Between Bethancourt‘s defense and emerging offense and Gattis‘ power stick, the Braves are covered when McCann departs.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jameson Taillon in, A.J. Burnett out.
To be fair, the 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates’ best shot at the franchise’s first World Series title since 1979 would be with both Burnett and the 21-year-old Taillon in the rotation. If Pittsburgh could sport a quartet of Francisco Liriano, Burnett, Gerrit Cole and Taillon atop its staff, the NL Central could belong to the Bucs.
Of course, Pittsburgh can if Burnett chooses to stick around for one more season. Unlike St. Louis with Beltran, Boston with Ellsbury or Atlanta with McCann, this isn’t a case of dollars and value. After what Burnett became on the mound and in the clubhouse for the Pittsburgh organization, he would be brought back at a fair rate by Pirates management.
Yet, after 15 big league seasons, Burnett is contemplating retirement this offseason. The subject, first brought into the mainstream by Hardball Talk in March, didn’t die down as the season progressed for the 94-win Pirates.
After the conclusion of Pittsburgh’s division series loss to St. Louis, team president Frank Coonelly made it clear that the team would welcome him back during a conversation with Bill Brink of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
“He’s got a decision to make, first and foremost, whether it’s time for him to spend more time with his family or whether he thinks he can go another year,” Coonelly said. “If he decides that he wants to come back, we definitely want A.J. back.”
If Burnett does depart, Taillon, a former first-round pick, will be asked to fill major shoes in the 2014 Pirates rotation. Bleacher Report’s Mike Rosenbaum projects him to be a No. 3 starter during his big league career but would likely have to reach that potential almost immediately to fill the void of Burnett.
However, if Burnett does decide to stick around for one more run at a ring in Pittsburgh, Taillon can be eased into a fourth starter role and given the chance to progress at his own pace.
Agree? Disagree? Can these prospects replace the veterans?
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Of the free agents who will be able to negotiate and sign with new teams beginning on Tuesday, November 5, several of them had an extended opportunity to increase (or decrease) their value in the postseason.
While only a handful of innings pitched or a small sample size of at-bats normally wouldn’t move the needle very much on a veteran player’s perceived value, a player’s ability to produce in the playoffs certainly can.
Here are 10 players whose asking price has likely risen or fallen since the end of the regular season.
Sasquatch hunters would lose their minds if they happened across Fenway Park. The men of the 2013 Boston Red Sox own some of the gnarliest beards in baseball, and it’s about time we settle the argument of who has the best.
I mean, seeing as how these players went through all of the trouble and weeks (hours when it comes to Jonny Gomes) to grow these things, we might as well judge them.
From the scraggly to those who would make The Most Interesting Man in the World happy, we have you covered.
Never before have a group of men been so lauded for merely not shaving. It’s time to celebrate laziness and superstitious playoff facial hair.
We will also give you a non-baseball comparison of the first thing we think of when we see each beard. Feel free to play along.
Now let’s see those mugs.
22-year-old Michael Wacha became the 17th-youngest pitcher to win a World Series game when he defeated the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 on Thursday night.
The rookie was still highly effective, despite lacking the outstanding command he demonstrated in his previous three postseason starts; he ultimately allowed two runs on three hits and four walks with five strikeouts over seven impressive innings.
In the aftermath of Wacha’s gem against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS, I wrote that it ranked as the 10th-best performance by a rookie pitcher in postseason history. However, with the right-hander now pitching in the Fall Classic, I figured I’d now take a more specific look at rookie performances in the World Series.
Once again, Win Probability Average (WPA) was used to rank each player’s single-game performance. This time, however, I decided to include hitters. And to avoid skewed results from late-inning relievers and pinch hitters, I narrowed the focus to only position players who started the game and pitchers who logged at least six innings.
Here’s a look at the 10 best performances by rookies in the World Series.
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants (2010)
After opening the 2010 season in the minor leagues, Bumgarner was called up to join the Giants’ starting rotation in late June and went on to register a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts during the regular season. While the 20-year-old left-hander pitched well in both the NLDS and NLCS that year, he put himself on the map as one of baseball’s best young pitchers with his Game 4 start in the World Series against the Texas Rangers.
With the Giants already up 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, Bumgarner fired eight scoreless innings in which he allowed three hits and two walks with six strikeouts. More importantly, San Francisco won the game, 4-0, and went on to defeat the Rangers the following night in Game 5 to win the 2010 World Series.
2. Bruce Kison, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (1971)
Called up to the major leagues on the Fourth of July in 1971, Kison, 21 at the time, posted a 102 ERA+ in 95.1 innings during the regular season including two complete games in 13 starts.
The 6’4” right-hander was moved to the bullpen for the postseason where he served as the Pirates’ long reliever. In his only NLCS appearance against the Giants, Kison tossed 4.2 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and two walks with three strikeouts.
After failing to record an out in relief of starter Bob Johnson during Game 2 of the World Series against the Orioles, Kison was stellar out of the bullpen in Game 4. Entering the game with two outs in the first inning after starter Luke Walker was shelled for three runs, the right-hander fired 6.1 shutout frames, allowing only one hit—he did hit three batters for good measure—with three strikeouts.
3. Gil McDougald, 2B-3B, New York Yankees (1951)
Gil McDougald had an outstanding rookie season with the Yankees in 1951, appearing in 131 games and receiving significant playing time at both second and third base. At the plate, the 22-year-old batted .306/.396/.488 with 72 runs scored, 41 extra-base hits (14 home runs), 14 stolen bases and more walks (56) than strikeouts (54). Following the season, McDougald was named the American League Rookie of the Year and even finished ninth in the league’s MVP voting.
Tied at two games apiece with the New York Giants in the 1951 World Series, McDougald provided a series-changing blow in Game 5 with a third-inning grand slam. The Yankees went on to win the game, 13-1, and ultimately clinch the series the following night.
4. Whitey Ford, LHP, New York Yankees (1950)
21-year-old Whitey Ford took baseball by storm following his arrival in July of 1950, posting a 9-1 record with seven complete games and 153 ERA+ in 112 innings spanning 20 games (12 starts). The left-hander’s impressive campaign resulted in a second-place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year voting following the season.
The Yankees opened the 1950 World Series against the Phillies with wins in each of the first three games. In Game 4 at Yankee Stadium, they turned to Ford to clinch the series. The rookie certainly didn’t disappoint, as he allowed two runs (zero earned) on seven hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over 8.2 innings. The Yankees, meanwhile, went on to win the game, 5-2.
5. Brian Doyle, 2B, New York Yankees (1978)
The Yankees selected Doyle in the fourth round of the 1972 draft, though he didn’t reach the major leagues until 1978. Playing 39 games that season, mostly as a reserve, the 23-year-old batted only .192 in 54 plate appearances and failed to collect an extra-base hit.
Doyle would ultimately atone for his poor regular-season performance with an outstanding showing in the 1978 World Series against the Dodgers. Starting all six games at second base, the rookie went 7-for-16 (.438) with four runs scored and two RBI. He enjoyed arguably the best game of his career in Game 6, going 3-for-4 with a double, two runs scored and two RBI.
However, that was about it in terms of Doyle’s career, as he batted .150 with four extra-base hits in 71 games over parts of the next three seasons. By 1982, he was out of baseball.
6. Mel Stottlemyre, RHP, New York Yankees (1964)
Following his call-up by the Yankees on August 14, 1964, Stottlemyre went on to have the ninth-best season by a rookie pitcher (with at least 96 innings pitched) in baseball history, according to Baseball Reference. Appearing in 13 games (12 starts) over the final two months of the regular season, the 22-year-old posted a 9-3 record and 177 ERA+ in 96 innings and even finished 25th in the AL MVP voting.
Amazing, Stottlemyre’s only postseason experience came later that year when the Yankees played the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. Getting the start in Game 2 on the road with the Yankees already trailing 1-0 in the series, the right-hander fired a complete-game gem, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts.
Stottlemyre came back to start Game 5 of the series and turned in another solid outing, allowing an earned run on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts. However, the rookie was outdueled by Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, who tossed a historic, 10-inning complete game with 13 strikeouts.
Hoping to ride Stottlemyer’s hot hand, the Yankees started the rookie in Game 7 of the series. However, the right-hander couldn’t further his World Series success, as he was saddled with the loss after allowing three earned runs on five hits and two walks, lasting only four innings.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox (2007)
It took Jacoby Ellsbury only two years to reach the major leagues after Boston selected him in the first round of the 2005 draft out of Oregon State University.
Called up to make his debut on June 30, 2007, the 23-year-old served as one the Red Sox’s hottest hitters over the final three months of the regular season, batting .353/.394/.509 with 20 runs scored, 11 extra-base hits (three home runs), 18 RBI and nine stolen bases in 33 games.
Ellsbury’s late-season success led to him being named as the team’s starting center fielder in the postseason, though he didn’t truly settle in at the plate until the World Series against the Colorado Rockies.
Moved up to the leadoff spot for Game 3 in Colorado, Ellsbury went 4-for-5 with three doubles, two runs scored and two RBI as the Cardinals outslugged the Rockies 10-5.
8. Ricky Ledee, OF, New York Yankees (1998)
Drafted as a 16-year-old in 1990 out of Puerto Rico, Ledee spent eight seasons in the minor leagues before finally making his major league debut on June 15, 1998. The 24-year-old went on to play in 42 games with the Yankees during the regular season, batting .241/.299/.392 with eight extra-base hits and 29 strikeouts in 87 plate appearances.
Although he made the Yankees’ postseason roster, Ledee failed to log an at-bat during the ALDS and subsequently went 0-for-5 in the ALCS against the Indians.
Despite his lack of at-bats, Ledee was named as the team’s starting left fielder in Game 1 of the World Series. He responded by going 2-for-3 with a double, walk and two RBI. The left-handed hitter would go on to bat .600 (6-for-10) in the series with three doubles and four RBI as the Yankees dropped the Padres in four consecutive games.
9. Andruw Jones, OF, Atlanta Braves (1996)
Regarded as the top prospect in the game by Baseball America heading into the 1996 season, Jones earned a promotion to the major leagues in the middle of August after posting a 1.072 OPS with 34 home runs in 116 games across three minor league levels.
The 19-year-old showed flashes of greatness following his call-up by the Braves, batting .217/.265/.443 with five home runs and 13 RBI in 31 regular-season games. As expected—given his age and lack of professional experience—Jones struggled to control the strike zone at the highest level and ultimately fanned 29 times in 113 plate appearances.
Though Jones was named to the Braves’ postseason roster, the precocious outfielder served as a pinch hitter and late-inning defensive replacement during the NLDS and for most of the NLCS. However, when he was given the start in left field in the deciding Game 7 of the NLCS against the Cardinals, Jones made the most of the opportunity, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI.
The rookie was back in left field for Game 1 of the World Series against the Yankees and, amazingly, picked up where he left off in the NLCS, going 3-for-4 with three runs scored, two home runs and five RBI. At 19 years old, Jones became the youngest player to hit a home run in the postseason (and obviously the World Series).
10. Willie McGee, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (1982)
Willie McGee made an immediate impact in the major leagues, batting .340 with nine extra-base hits, 21 RBI and eight stolen bases in 43 games following his debut early in the 1982 season. The 23-year-old ultimately finished the season with a .296/.318/.391 batting line, 24 extra-base hits and 24 stolen bases in 123 games, and he placed third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.
McGee continued to swing a hot bat in the NLCS, posting a 1.154 OPS with two triples, a home run and five RBI in the Cardinals’ three-game sweep of the Braves. The speedy switch hitter didn’t fare as well in the World Series, as the Brewers pitchers allowed him to reach base seven times in 26 plate appearances.
However, McGee put himself in the record books with his 2-for-3, two-home run, four-RBI performance in Game 3.
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