Kuzul

In Wednesday’s series finale with the San Francisco Giants, the Reds looked like they were going to beat them as if they stole something.

Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, and Ryan Hanigan all homered to stake Homer Bailey to a 4-0 lead in the first inning. It looked like payback time for the boys from the Queen City.

Votto hit another homer in the third inning, his 31st of the season, to cap a four-run inning and the Reds were on top 8-1.

Adding one run in the fourth and another in the fifth gave the Reds what looked like a victory, with a 10-1 lead.

The Giants put up two in the fifth and chased Bailey in the sixth. He left the game leading 10-3 and handed the keys to Bill Bray with two on and one out. Bray allowed both to score, and suddenly it was a 10-5 game at the end of the sixth.

San Francisco jumped all over Logan Ondrusek in the bottom of the eighth. After he pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning, he gave up singles to Jose Guillen and Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval. Juan Uribe continued his hot hitting against the Reds with a three-run shot to left, making it a 10-8 game with nobody out.

Dusty Baker then made a triple switch. He brought in Arthur Rhodes to replace Ondrusek and brought in Jay Bruce to play right, moving Chris Heisey to left and sending Gomes to the bench.

In a performance that was probably due, Rhodes gave up what looked like the winning run, allowing three runs in one inning of work.

The Reds then scored a run in the top of the ninth to keep the game alive. Nick Masset shut the Giants down in the ninth to force the game into extra innings.

In the top of the 10th the Reds squelched a tremendous opportunity to score a run. With two outs, Scott Rolen doubled high off the left field wall and headed to second base. Cody Ross (why did we ever trade him?) played it off the wall like he worked there all year, and threw a strike to second.

Rolen attempted the worst slide I’ve seen in probably five years, looking like a deer caught in the headlights. He was out by several feet, so kudos to Ross on a beautiful defensive play.

Laynce Nix pinch-hit for Masset in the top of the 11th. He hit a slow roller to second base and pulled up lame after about three steps toward first. Don’t look for him for at least two weeks, as he could barely walk after the re-injury.

My boy (Okay, I have mellowed on him a little) Coco Cordero pitched the last two innings to notch the well-deserved win, since Votto had singled Miguel Cairo in with the game winner in the 12th.

Votto had four hits, Paul Janish had three, and Gomes and Rolen both had two, as the Reds pounded out 16 of them. Sadly, they were out-hit by the Giants 18-16.

In the three-game set, the Giants scored 39 runs and collected 55 hits against the worn-out Reds pitching staff.

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Dusty Baker finally gets me. No, I mean he really, really gets me.

How difficult it must be to go to the mound and tell your closer to hit the bricks. Regardless of how dire the situation, and believe me it was dire, it still must be a gut churner.

To tell your highest paid man on the current roster that his day is over has done one of two things. It has either brought the manager to an epiphany that says “I have seen this too many times,” or “Someone has got to clean up this mess he just made.”

Pulling your closer from the game is tantamount to raising the white flag and saying, “It’s over, we’ve had enough.”

With so much emphasis put on the closer today, it puts the manager in a tough situation.

If he pulls him, he is screaming to the world that his man just doesn’t have it today. If he stays with him and allows him to build on the mess he’s made, he will most likely lose the game.

I have been hyper-critical of Coco all season long, and now it looks as though Dusty has finally come around.

When a Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, or Johnny Cueto give way to Coco with a three run lead and a performance worthy of their scrapbook, they deserve more than to see the bases filled with singles and walks, and a winning run coming to the plate.

Remember the game against Atlanta?

The Reds were ahead 9-3 when the Braves came to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Mike Lincoln gave up four singles, Nick Massett gave up a walk and another runner reached on an error.

Dusty brought in Arthur Rhodes who promptly struck out slugger Jason Heyward for the first out of the inning with the bases loaded.

Instead of Dusty leaving Rhodes in while he was hot, he motioned for the closer. On a 2-2 pitch he served up a grand salami to pinch-hitter Brooks Conrad, losing the game 10-9.

Far too many times this season, Cordero has blown saves, loaded the bases and still got a save, and continues to be called in every time the game is on the line.

Don Cable recently wrote a comment on one of my articles stating that he didn’t understand why teams had one man that they exclusively leaned on when they were between a rock and a hard place. I agreed with him then and more so now.

Kudos to Massett who came through in spades yesterday with the bases loaded and only one out. A $1M man picking up a $12M man, go figure.

I know there have been times this season when Cordero pitched flawlessly. But too many times has his pitch count gone over 30 for one inning. He is constantly walking at least one and giving up a hit or two every time out of the pen.

Baker needs to give the ball over to Rhodes, Massett and rookie Jordan Smith more at the end of the game.

I have said it before and I will say it again. We simply will not win the division with Cordero remaining the exclusive closer.

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Francisco Cordero is tied with Heath Bell for second in the major leagues in saves.

He is 24 for 30 (80%) for the season. His career save percentage is 81.5%. His save percentage with the Reds 85.8%.

Here are some more stats to chew on.

Of the 15 pitchers with 20 or more saves, Cordero is worst in the league in WHIP (1.55), ERA (4.20), and third worst in batting average against (.263).

The Reds pay Cordero a lot of money, so continuing to run him out there for every save will likely be the choice.

Here are five other in-house choices.

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Bronson Arroyo was again the victim of bullpen mismanagement.

Arroyo has a knack for being the best pitcher in the Central Division one night and the worst pitcher who ever pitched an inning the next night.

He pitched a very good game Sunday, giving up six hits and two runs in eight strong innings. His day was done, and he left the game trailing 2-1.

Miraculously, the Reds clawed back and roughed up league-leading closer Matt Capps and took the lead at 4-2.

Of course, everybody out there in Redland knows what happens in the ninth inning of every game with the Reds ahead, by less than four runs that is.

That is right, kiddies—let us now bring out the big bull, El Toro, the save whore himself, Coco Cordero.

If you are a true Reds fan, you know that all bets are off whenever Cordero enters the ring…er…game.

There he was, called on to protect a now 4-2 lead and preserve a win for Arroyo. As has become his M-O, he started off with a walk, then blah…blah…blah, which translates into another (that is the fourth, and yes, I am counting) blown save—but hey, at least he didn’t get a loss.

The top of the 10th inning saw the Reds get the go-ahead run when Jay Bruce scored on a Drew Stubbs single, putting Cincy in front 5-4. Do you know what else it did? It put Cordero in line to get a win even with the lousy inning he pitched in the ninth.

A Cordero protege, Nick Masset, came in for the home half of the 10th to cement the win for Cordero. He pitched terribly, reminding me so much of Coco that I nearly threw the remote at the TV.

To show you the length and girth of my disdain for Cordero, I came within a whisker of hoping the Nationals would win the game so that Coco would know how it feels for a starter to watch him blow the game up for him. My loyalty to the Reds prevailed, and I willed them to yet another win.

The point of this rant is twofold. First, and foremost, I made it a mission to write a scathing article every time Coco blows a save. Second, I wanted to point out the unjust rewards of MLB rules and scoring guidelines.

Should there not be a rule that if a reliever blows a save attempt, he CANNOT get a win regardless of anything else? I mean, come on; a guy pitches his ass off for eight innings and is in line for a win, watches it disappear, and watches his closer wannabe implode yet be the benefactor of the win. Please!

How stupid does that look in a box score? Cordero (W 2-3; BS-4). It is not like he redeemed himself in the next inning. The only thing that happened was his team scored a run the next inning. It is like a contradiction of terms: blown save, won the game.

Everything else aside, it was a good day for the Queen City fans. The Reds’ win, coupled with a Cardinal loss to the Brewers, pulled the Reds back into a tie for first place.

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I have to preface this by saying that I have totally and fully jumped onto the Sabermetric bandwagon. I know I’m late with it, but I am hooked.

There is still a lot I have to learn in the intricacies of the endless list of stats that didn’t exist 15 years ago (for instance the difference between WPA-win probability added and VORP-Value over a replacement player, they seem like they are measuring the same thing).

Anyway, I had to preface with that because I have become fascinated with one stat in particular, clutch.

That is it, it is as simple as that. A single stat that can tell you whether a player is at a higher level in high-pressure situations than he normally is.

While watching the Reds play Tuesday night and saw them come back from yet another deficit (only to lose it in the bottom of the ninth unfortunately), I couldn’t help but notice how much better their hitter seemed to be in high pressure situations.

This season it seems I have seen countless two-out RBI, eighth and ninth inning runs, and heroic walk-offs from the team with an incredible 10 last at-bat victories (out of 23 so far), and two handfuls of late-inning comebacks.

So, I made a B-line for my latest addiction (fangraphs.com) to check out their clutch stats.

I found that Joey Votto is the fourth most clutch player in the league so far this year, meaning that his game elevates the fourth most in pressure situations, not that he is the fourth best player in pressure situations.

He comes out with a “clutch” rating of 1.05, meaning that after you subtract the WPA/LI from the WPA/pLI of a player you get that number (much more thoroughly explained here ).

Looking even further, we see that Cincinnati is the second most clutch team in the Majors, behind Detroit. 

This all makes sense when you watch the Reds, who at times can come out lethargic in the first few innings. But as the heat is put on them, they respond in a big way, and come up with hits in big situations.

Now, that being said, I sat Wednesday afternoon discretely updating my phone in class, hoping for the game ending double-play that was sure to bail out the latest version of the Reds collapsing bullpen.

It never came. The ‘pen gave up a wonderful performance by Mike Leake and a sure win (Atlanta had a 0.5% chance of winning going into the ninth) with a seven run debacle.

I was distraught over how non-clutch our pitching staff has come to be. It seems the Reds are unable to close out a game without Coco Cordero or Nick Masset (more in April than May) making me yell at the TV.

It seems that the Reds rank eighth worst in the majors in clutch pitching. They are sitting at -0.90, worse than their average pitching in high-pressure situations.

For whatever reason, there is a feeling of pomp and swagger in the dugout when Cincy is down heading into the late innings. But in the bullpen there is a feeling of fear and ineptitude when they are playing in a close game in the later innings.

While the clutch hitting of the Reds is to be celebrated, the anti-clutch bullpen may be something to worry about in the Queen City.

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Ouch.

The tires are flat just a few days after the Reds bandwagon was getting full.

After holding a commanding 9-1 lead, the Reds end up losing 10-9 in stomach punching fashion to the Atlanta Braves.

The Reds jumped out to a eight run lead in the second inning and everything seemed juuuust fine. Rookie Mike Leake had his seventh quality start in eight appearances, going six innings giving up five hits and three runs (one earned).

Mike Lincoln breezed through two innings before manager Dusty Baker inexplicably left him in for the ninth. At 9-3, it didn’t seem like a big deal.

After getting into massive trouble Nick Masset was brought in for damage control in a 9-5 game. He walked a batter then was the victim of a Miguel Cairo error and was relieved by the 40-year old veteran Arthur Rhodes. He promptly struck out the Braves best hitter Jason Heyward (the guy that beat the Reds on Wednesday).

Then Dusty brought in closer Francisco Cordero to finish of Atlanta and those pesky Braves once and for all. Yet another questionable call if you ask me. Well, guess what happened? Pinch hitter Brooks Conrad hits a grand slam, and the Braves complete the epic comeback.

This one hurts bad. Really bad. Giving up a lead like that might stick with the club for awhile. It’s a loss that could be looked at in September as one of the reason the Reds just didn’t cut the mustard in ’10. Losing two games in a row via the walk-off has given the Reds a taste of their own medicine.

The Cardinals have regained first place, and now the Reds are playing catch-up again. This isn’t a “the sky is falling” article, but holy crap this is a tough one to swallow. The best thing the Reds can do now is completely erase it from their collective memories, and beat the living daylights out of the Cleveland Indians.

There are now legit concerns regarding the $12M closer, Francisco Cordero. He has blown three saves already, he only had four of last year! He is 35, and clearly not quite the pitcher he once was. He might be getting over worked by Dusty, but either way something aint right. Simply put, he is having trouble throwing strikes. Oh, and the set-up man Masset blew the game before.

As a strength for most of the year, the bullpen is now becoming a startling problem for the Reds.

It’s not the end of the world, but this next week will be very telling about the resolve of this young Reds team. This is the time when veterans such as Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera need to lead by example, and make sure the team doesn’t unravel. Sure it’s still May but the Red Legs need to put a hurting on their Ohio rivals to regain the swagger they had built up over the past week. 

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The Cincinnati Reds have a very good baseball team. That isn’t opinion, it is fact.

Coming into Atlanta on Wednesday they had won nine of their last 10 games, were seven games above .500 and in first place of the National League’s Central Division.

The starting pitching had been superb, the hitting was outstanding and their defense was second to none.

The Braves slowed their roll on Wednesday night with a walk-off win in the ninth inning, 5-4.  The Reds had tied it in the ninth inning on a solo HR by rookie Chris Heisey off Braves closer Billy Wagner. It looked like another come-from-behind victory was imminent.

With two men on and one out, Wagner settled down and struck out Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce to end the rally.

Today, the Reds were ahead 8-0 thanks in part to a grand-slam home run by Joey Votto and a two run double by outfielder Laynce Nix.

They held a 9-3 lead from the fifth inning and into the bottom of the ninth. Arthur Rhodes relieved Nick Masset with the bases loaded, three already in and nobody out.

He struck out rookie phenom Jason Heyward swinging, and was promptly replaced by the save-whore himself, Coco Cordero. The game wasn’t televised and I was getting updates on my Palm Pixi.

I knew it was going to end badly when the change was made. Cordero is the most unreliable closer, to make so much money, I have ever witnessed.

There was no reason to call him in with a 9-3 lead so T-Pick waited until the Braves got within “save range” and brought Coco in to face pinch-hitter Brooks Conrad.

Let the record show that Masset got nobody out in the ninth and Rhodes struck out the only batter he faced.

After five pitches, Conrad put Cordero’s offering into the left field seats with an assist from the glove of Nix. Not only did Cordero blow his third save attempt, he was saddled with the loss.

Cordero cannot just save a game and let everybody go home happy. He has to set a stage, walk two or three, give up a hit or two and possibly a run or two before being handed a save.

Only five times in his 22 games this season has he managed to work a perfect inning. Keep in mind, when he comes in the game is on the line 99 percent of the time.

I never will understand the love everyone has for the closer. Pitch the man with the hot hand. The man who has already worked up a sweat, had the butterflies chased from his stomach and pitched admirably.

I can see relieving another if he has pitched poorly or if a situation actually called for it, but not just to let a blowfish come in and ruin the momentum of the entire squad.

I may be alone on this ship, but if I am, I am. Coco Cordero is the most overpaid person in baseball, with apologies to Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez.

If Cincinnati expects to seriously contend for the Central Division crown, they must either get rid of Coco or at least use him in a different role and make Arthur Rhodes the closer.

 NOTE TO EDITOR:  I have seen lately that most article titles are being changed, many times to a negative effect. Please do not alter the title. If it sucks the way it is, let’s ride it out. Thanks

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