Kuzul

Jim Hendry has already gotten the pink slip, so a lot of the venom Cubs fans may have felt is gone. Now, it is time to pick up the pieces and move on. Unfortunately, there are a lot of pieces to pick up. The Cubs have a top-five payroll and stand in fifth place in their division. That alone tells you the kind of analysis that has been done. Furthermore, they haven’t been a factor in the division for several years.

Interestingly enough, this team is not devoid of good players. Quite the contrary, when you look of the number of good players they have, you wonder how they stand in fifth place. This is one of those organizations that consistently makes you scratch your head. Some teams (say the Angels or Rays) make you wonder how they win. With the Cubs, you wonder how they lose. It takes some creativity.

Key Statistics

Team Payroll: 125.0 million (sixth)

Lineup: 17.6

Rotation: 16.6

Bullpen: 18.1

Composite: 17.4

Analysis Score: -11.4

Lineup

The secret to Hendry’s success (if you can call it that) is that he was not terrible in any phase of the game. The problem was that he was just bad enough to field a losing team. Still, fans could point to players like Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, Starling Castro and even Marlon Byrd and say the talent is there. Yes it is, but then there were the contracts for Kosuke Fukodome, Alfonso Soriano and the maddening inconsistency of Geovany Soto.

They weren’t terrible, but they were paying through the nose for mediocre players. Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukodome all made more than 10 million dollars this year. Ramirez may have been the only one who came close to producing on that kind of level. Mind you, I said close. Keeping your job without the benefit of results takes effort. You can’t completely botch moves. They simply have to underachieve enough to the point where the powers that be won’t notice.

Rotation

In reality, the starting staff isn’t really that bad. Sure, Carlos Zambrano has a toxic personality and the contract to match, but you have three solid starters including Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and the newly acquired Matt Garza. All of them have pitched well even if their collective ERA doesn’t show it. See, the Cubs are currently last in the National League (and all of MLB) in defense efficiency rating (DER). DER is the inverse of BABIP. The Cubs have a .675 team DER this season. That means that their opponents have a collective .325 BABIP this year. So, Matt Garza is the only starter with a sub 4.00 ERA, but with better luck they could have two or three pitchers there.

That’s also one of the ways in which you can underachieve and still keep your job. While they’ve committed the most errors in the league, that doesn’t always have to be the case. It just means the team makes fewer plays. That’s usually due to lack of range. Range is not something casual fans or owners notice. The Cubs could use a serviceable fifth starter but, then again, so could most of the league. What they really need is for Carlos Zambrano to either start earning his money or go away.

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol has been filthy in the past, but something happened on the way to him becoming the best closer in the National League. He suddenly became hittable. Andrew Cashner was supposed to be the heir apparent, but he got hurt and has been ineffective. Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood and Jeff Samardzija have been fine, but none are good enough to hold down the closer’s spot in Marmol’s stead. So, they have been stuck with his inconsistent performance.

Response to Crisis

The Cubs were out of it before the season got going and Hendry was out too as it turned out. So, the main crisis is how the organization is going to move forward. They traded Fukodome to Cleveland, but that just cleared a few million dollars. Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano are signed long-term. Zambrano will clear the books after next season and Soriano will clear after 2014. Finding takers for them would be ideal, but they are going to have to get someone drunk to do it.

Part of the crisis will be to avoid the temptation to spend their way out of the mess. Carlos Pena is a free agent, so they have his money and the money dedicated to Fukodome clearing the books. The temptation is there to go after Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. Neither of them will be enough to take the Cubs anywhere. They would energize the fan base, but this fan base needs winning more than glitz.

Analysis Score: -11.4 (29th)

Final Analysis

Actually, this rank seems pretty close. The only thing that remains a mystery is why it took ownership so long to pull the plug on Hendry. The emperor had no clothes and was running around in the buff for several seasons. Chicago is an intriguing job, so chances are they will attract a big name. Don’t be surprised if that guy gets this team competitive in a hurry.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

No, not the team—that sale has already taken place and unfortunately we’re stuck with the Ricketts. We’re talking players here.

The Cubs have played 69 baseball games this season and, despite taking three out of four against the first place Milwaukee Brewers, have proven once again that this simply ain’t the year for the Northsiders. 

It is time to sell.

Sure, the division is immanently winnable, but not for the Cubs. It’s too obvious when you see the lack of fundamental play, the injuries and the lack of clutch hitting to continue buying what the Cubs are selling.

Oh, and speaking of selling, the time is now for GM Jim Hendry to start whispering in the ears of his general manager counterparts throughout MLB in an effort to lay the groundwork for a move by the All-Star break.

Look, it won’t be an easy task, to be sure. Expensive, long-term contracts and nonperforming ballplayers often do not make for attractive shopping if you’re a contending club looking to add that piece that puts you over the top.

But let’s take a look at the trade candidates one by one and determine why they should be moved, what the Cubs could realistically expect to get and who might be interested.

Carlos Zambrano

Usually, this kind of a trade is the classic “my bad contract for yours” type of deal. However, with starting pitching always at a premium, and Big Z pitching fairly well, I actually do think the Cubs can get a return for Zambrano’s services.

The choice would likely be between salary relief and/or prospects. For the Cubs to net any real players in this type of trade, they would have to pay much of the remaining salary owed to Zambrano.

Alternatively, they could dump the majority of what is owed on a team like the Yankees, for example, but then they would not get much, if anything, in return.

Zambrano is owed the remainder of his $17.875 million contract for 2011, plus another $18 million for next season and he also has a $19.25 million vesting player option.

The Yankees have said to have been scouting Big Z and he is said to be willing to waive his no-trade clause. With everything that has transpired between Zambrano and the Cubs, this may make sense for everyone.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster is Zambrano with the drama, and there are clubs said to be interested in the righthander.

He is owed what is left on his $13.5 million deal for this season, along with a $14 million player option for 2012.

Dempster has recovered nicely after starting the season in brutal fashion. If he can keep the gopher balls down he can be effective.

But there is likely no way he is moved as long as Hendry continues to play GM—though, once again, the Bombers have interest.

Kosuke Fukudome

Actually, Fukudome is not really a bad little ballplayer. The main problem is he signed a contract in which he was supposed to be a power hitting superstar and that simply was too much to expect.

But if you want a guy who has patience at the plate and plays adequate defense in right field with an accurate arm, he is your guy.

Fukudome is in the last year of a four-year contract that is paying him $13.5 million this season. As with most Hendry signees, he has no-trade protection.

A team like Boston might be interested if the Cubs tossed in salary relief.

Alfonso Soriano

This is a pipe dream, as there probably aren’t any teams willing to give up prospects or pay Soriano anywhere near what he is owed.

The Cubs would absolutely be thrilled to move Soriano and what’s left of the eight-year, $136 million albatross he signed in November of 2006, but it would have to be a team with deep pockets and poor baseball sense.

With his defense, it would have to be an AL team where he could DH and both Boston and the Yankees have those spots covered.

Marlon Byrd

Once Byrd is healthy, he should be fairly easy to move as he is a productive player with a manageable salary and a solid reputation.

The most likely scenario is Byrd going to a contending team that could use a veteran for the stretch run, although they can’t count on much power from him.

The Cubs could then call up Brett Jackson and get an early look at the guy who is probably going to be their center fielder next season anyway.

Aramis Ramirez

By all means, I’ve been suggesting that Hendry move this guy for years, but Ramirez simply doesn’t want to go anywhere.

I’d tell him that he has two choices—he could ride the bench in Chicago or he could accept a trade elsewhere. Since he’d like to build up his numbers for free agency, I’m sure he would change his tune.

However, with his power waning, I’m not sure any teams would be interested now. He can still hit when healthy, though he plays a lousy third base.

Carlos Marmol

What good is a closer when you’re not playing meaningful games?

Now, Marmol is very good when he has his command, but sometimes you have to give up something to get something in return and Marmol could be a valuable trade chip for the Cubs.

Move him to Boston for young fire-baller Daniel Bard and a good prospect and it’s a move that helps both clubs. The Sox will be looking for a closer once Jonathan Papelbon is eligible to leave via free agency after the season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last week I wrote about my hope for the 2011 Cubs. For the first time in a long time, I look at the Cubs organization and see reasons to be optimistic about their short and long-term future.

Almost immediately after posting that story to Facebook, I got a message from one of my college buddies—and fellow long-suffering Cubs fan—that was, uh, not so optimistic. He stopped short of calling me a total idiot, but did suggest rather strongly that I needed to immediately go outside, turn around three times and spit.

It’s not that he thought I was an idiot for being hopeful, just for saying it publicly.

This is how most Cubs fans are wired. They are like that girl in high school who had her heart broken one too many times and overreacts at even the smallest male indiscretion. Everyone understands, but no one wants to be the next person to cross her.

Logic says I should be more guarded like my college buddy, but for me, hope springs eternal.

They won’t be on anyone’s list of favorites this season, but I think the Cubs can win the NL Central.

Here are five things that will help get the Cubs back on top.

Begin Slideshow

We’re counting down the hours to the start of baseball season.  Hopes are high in Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit and not so much in Cleveland and Kansas City, as the AL Central race is about to get under way.

Most pundits have the Twins, White Sox and Tigers battling it out for the division title while the Royals and Indians play hot potato for last place.

All of the expected front runners have their weaknesses and could use a little more help as the season rolls on.  There are a bunch of players that will be, or are, available who could help each team in this division.

I’ll propose one player acquisition for each team in the division that could push them over the top as the favorite to win the division.

For baseball purists, I’m not taking salaries, WAR stats, BABIP, etc., into account here.  This is just for fun and it’s trying to match up a player who’s either unhappy, on a terrible team or on an expiring contract in his current situation and extracting him from there and putting him on a AL Central team.

Begin Slideshow

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Carlos Marmol had one of the most mind-boggling seasons in 2010, among any position.

His strikeout total of 138 was higher than that of 10 starters who logged at least 200 innings. His strikeout rate (15.99) was the highest among both starters and relievers in at least 40 years (I called off the search after 1970).

Having said that, Marmol’s contact rate (61.3 percent) was by far the best among pitchers who logged at least 60 innings last season.

He also boasted the best slider in the majors, checking in at 19.0 runs above average.

Marmol ranked eighth in saves with 38 and his FIP (2.01) actually suggests he was better than his 2.55 ERA indicates.

Yet, despite these mind-blowing numbers, Marmol doesn’t come without risk.

He walked a whopping 6.03 batters per nine last season, the worst among relief pitchers.

While he did save 15 games in 2009, last year was Marmol’s first full season as the Cubs’ closer. Given the ridiculous turnover rate at the position each season, I tend to warn against drafting inexperienced closers so highly.

There’s no denying Marmol’s talent, but a regression in strikeouts (and perhaps batting average against, .147 in ‘10) are likely to occur.

While a sub-3.00 ERA is realistic, his obscene walk totals will prevent him from posting an elite WHIP.

Given that Mariano Rivera and Brian Wilson come with much less risk attached, Marmol checks in as the third-ranked closer on my 2011 big board, No. 92 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• No. 91: Brian Wilson

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Heading into the start of last season, the Cubbies had the third largest payroll in baseball, but had just 75 wins by the end of the year to show for it.

During the offseason, Chicago went out and got a power pitcher and hitter in Matt Garza and Carlos Pena.  They also added Kerry Wood to provide punch in the back of the bullpen.

This is a squad that won 97 games just three years ago.  They’re capable of making a run, but inconsistency has hampered their chances the past two years.  Plus, the NL Central has improved dramatically since 2008.

ALSO CHECK OUT

Pitcher Rankings

Positional Rankings

2011 Atlanta Braves Preview

2011 Florida Marlins Preview

2011 New York Mets Preview

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

2011 Washington Nationals Preview

Begin Slideshow

Carlos Marmol brings an exceptional strikeout rate to the closers role.  There is no arguing that fact, but that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the warts that do come with selecting him. 

Can he be one of the elite closers in the game in 2011?  Absolutely, but there is also the chance that he completely falls flat.  Which will it be?  Let’s start by taking a look at his 2010 performance:

2 Wins
38 Saves
77.2 Innings
2.55 ERA
1.18 WHIP
138 Strikeouts (15.99 K/9)
52 Walks (6.03 BB/9)
.293 BABIP 

The strikeouts are exceptional, but can we really expect him to be able to replicate it?  Yes, he should continue to be an elite option among relievers, but look at his K/9 the prior three years as a full-time reliever:

2007—12.46 (96 K over 69.1 innings)

2008—11.75 (114 K over 87.1 innings)

2009—11.31 (93 K over 74.0 innings)

They are all impressive numbers, but they aren’t quite the 138 strikeouts that he posted in ’10.  If he posts 20-30 fewer strikeouts, his value will take a hit. 

Among relief pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2010, there were 26 pitchers who posted a K/9 of 10.0 or better.  Included in that group were closers like John Axford, Heath Bell and Brian Wilson, among others.

If he can’t maintain the elite strikeout rate, which I would suspect that he can’t, the other numbers are going to play a significant role in how valuable he is compared to other options.

Obviously, the most glaring number is his walk rate, something that could ultimately cost him his job. 

If he strikes out fewer batters, he is likely going to allow more hits (due to there being more balls put in play).  When that happens, the sheer number of walks he posts could easily come back to haunt him.  You cannot continually walk the ballpark and just expect to strikeout the next three guys and get out of the jam.  Sooner or later it is going to bite you.

Keep in mind in 2009, with a BABIP of .252, he posted a WHIP of 1.46.  Yes, his ERA was still a usable 3.41, but that easily could go the other way.

You also have to consider his fly ball rate of 48.1 percent, which was actually the best mark of his career.  Yet, he posted a HR/FB of 1.6 percent and a HR/9 of 0.12. 

Are those numbers that we can really anticipate him repeating (I know his HR/9 in ’09 was 0.24, but he was at 1.03 in ’08)?  Sooner or later some of those fly balls are going to find their way over the fence.  If that happens, along with all the walks he allows, would it be a surprise to see him struggle?

I’m not suggesting avoiding Marmol in the least.  With his strikeout rate he is going to be a viable closer in all formats. 

However, do not let the stellar strikeout rate distract you from the risk that surrounds him.  If the walks continue he easily could struggle and ultimately find himself out of the closers role, at least for a little while.  Don’t look past Jonathan Broxton in ’10 for proof.

The walks have to be a concern, and they do help to push him down my rankings (he was tenth on my most recent rankings, which you can view by clicking here).  Proceed with caution, because there is a ton of risk.

What are your thoughts on Marmol?  How do you see him performing in 2011?  What are the chances that he loses his job at some point?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Who’s Craig Kimbrel?

He’s the next generation of major league closers.

Kimbrel is currently slated to out duel fellow relief pitchers come spring training and capture the closers role for the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have not had a shut down arm since John Smoltz and Kimbrel could be this decade’s dominant closer.

The soon to be 23-year old had been one of the most dominating closers in the minors before he was brought up with Atlanta in May of last year.  Kimbrel only appeared in eight games between his call up and June before being demoted back to AAA. 

The young kid’s see saw transition to the MLB continued in August when he was brought up once again and compiled 11.2 innings until seasons end.

Even with the push and pull within the Braves organization, Kimbrel was able to compile 23 saves in AAA last year.  Striking out 83 batters in 55 innings and sporting a cool 1.64 ERA.  The rookie does tend to walk batters at times, but has enough control to get out of trouble when runners are on base.

While these minor league stats prove to be very impressive, his carried over success into the majors last year is even more eye opening.  In 20.2 innings with the Braves last year, amidst a late season playoff race, Kimbrel posted a 4-0 record with a 0.44 ERA.  He struck out nearly two batters an inning with a total of 40 and only gave up nine hits with no home runs.

Kimbrel’s ability to keep the ball away from any hitter’s bat was clearly evident from his stat line from 2010.  In his 149.1 innings pitched during his three year minor league career, Kimbrel only surrendered five home runs on 74 hits.  That kind of production is rarely found among strike out closer nowadays.

The outlook for Kimbrel and the Braves in 2011 is fairly good.  With the addition of Dan Uggla, a healthy Chipper Jones and Jair Jurrjens, an immanent explosive season from Tommy Hanson, and the opportunity for rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman to make an impact, the Braves have all the pieces to be serious contenders come October.

Kimbrel is currently being drafted and ranked outside of the top 15 closers in fantasy leagues this year.  Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, and Francisco Rodriguez, who are untrusted veteran arms on the decline are all being taken ahead of Kimbrel. 

Given a full opportunity to close for the Braves for all of 2011, Kimbrel could surpass 40 saves and 100 strikeouts.  We could be witnessing the new era of closers in the MLB.  Neftali Feliz, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, and Craig Kimbrel.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As fantasy baseball drafts quickly approach, I thought it would be helpful to provide a quick reference cheat sheet for closers. Remember, don’t take a closer too early as there is value to be had late in drafts.

NL East

The Atlanta Braves have yet to officially announce a replacement for the recently retired Billy Wagner, however we believe that Fredi Gonzalez will give Craig Kimbrel the reigns as the team’s new closer. 

The only other NL East team with a possible closer carousel is Washington, where second year player Drew Storen will likely start the season as the team’s closer. Tyler Clippard or Sean Burnet would likely replace Storen if the youngster runs into trouble.

NL West

The two safest and most valuable closers to own from the NL West are Brian Wilson and Heath Bell. Both players are coming off excellent campaigns in 2010 in which they each represented their respective team in the All-Star Game.

Newly acquired J.J. Putz will likely begin 2011 as the Diamondbacks closer, while Jonathan Broxton will continue in his role as the closer for the Dodgers. Broxton was temporarily replaced by Hong-Chih Kuo last season after some sub-par performances, which is something that Broxton owners should be aware of this spring.

NL Central

The top closer to own from the NL Central is Carlos Marmol, as he is a near-lock for 30-plus saves and has an impressive career K/9 ratio of 11.9. 

The Pirates have yet to announce their closer for 2011, however the smart money is on Joel Hanrahan. 

Keep an eye on both Aroldis Chapman and Kyle McClellan this season, as both players are young fireballers and the heir apparent to the starting closer.

Ryan Franklin was less than spectacular in 2010, posting a pedestrian 3.46 ERA with only 29 saves. Despite posting 40 saves last year, Cordero had a near 4.00 ERA and may lose the starting job to the fan-favorite Chapman.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings and advice.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report to their spring training cites. This means the men who each team count on to secure a win will be reporting. In the last inning in a close game, the team’s manager calls on his best bullpen pitcher to come into the game and shut the door. The closers role is one of the most important roles on a baseball team. Let us countdown the Top 10.

Begin Slideshow