The 2010 Minnesota Twins, while having a great season with a 94-68 record, won their 6th American League Central Title since 2002.
The post-season struggles of the Twins have been well documented. The Twins will need to have another stellar season to stave off the reloaded Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers.
The Twins should have the following list of New Year’s Resolutions in order to get back to the playoffs, and wreak some havoc should they make it there.
It’s been a relatively uneventful offseason for the Twins, albeit only on the major league side. The Twins have landed a slew of relievers for their minor league system, as well as a few promising young prospects. Most notable is 17-year-old shortstop Javier Pimentel of the Dominican Republic.
Besides the signing of Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins’ major league squad remains fairly depleted. Key losses of Carl Pavano, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and J.J. Hardy seem to overweigh the small but earnest gains.
Former Braves reliever Chuck James and young infielder Matt Brown are the most notable of the few major league additions this offseason. The Twins also added catchers in Steve Holm and Rene Rivera, who have spent limited major league time with the Giants and Mariners, respectively.
Make no mistake, the club is headed in the right direction. Young arms like Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey (from the J.J. Hardy trade) will be ready to compete for a bullpen spot come spring training.
In-house bullpen candidates include Alex Burnett, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Anthony Slama, Carlos Gutierrez and Jeff Manship, to name a few. With another veteran arm or two from the open market, the Twins should be able to put together a fairly decent bullpen in 2011.
With the biggest concern being the bullpen, the starting rotation also has some question marks. The aforementioned Carl Pavano remains on the market, although a deal with Minnesota seems imminent.
The Nationals are also in the race for Pavano’s services, but the consensus seems to be that Carl will don a Twins uniform for at least the next couple seasons.
As it stands, the Twins’ rotation rests with Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. All have shown shades of brilliance, but seem to be repeatedly bitten by the inconsistency bug.
Liriano earned AL Comeback Player of the Year honors for 2010 after posting a 14-10 record with a nice 3.62 ERA and 201 K’s. Minnesota is no doubt expecting big things from Franky Franchise next season.
Kevin Slowey also had a good 2010, earning a record of 13-6. Injuries once again derailed what could have been a great season. His name has been mentioned as a possible trade chip, however.
Young starters like Kyle Gibson and Kyle Waldrop may make a late-season appearance if any rotation patchwork needs to be done.
Even with a host of young talent, the Twins will need help from the Hot Stove. Banking on Pavano signing, here’s a neatly ordered list of who could fill the open slots in Minnesota:
Carl Pavano has had his ups and downs his entire career as we all know.
He had his breakout season in 2003, collecting 12 wins with an acceptable ERA of 4.30. The very next year in 2004, he won 18 games with an ERA of 3.00.
His All-Star season earned him a 4-year, $40 million deal with the New York Yankees.
But we all know how that turned out, as he started only 26 games during the four years.
But after regaining his form with the Cleveland Indians and the Minnesota Twins in 2009, he returned to Minnesota this past season and won 17 games—earning him Twins’ Pitcher of the Year honors.
Now this offseason, he is looking for a new home.
Along with the Twins, he has drawn interests from teams including the Washington Nationals. Pavano is the best starting pitcher out there in the free-agent market, so he can earn some serious cash.
Although he had drawn interest from the Milwaukee Brewers just days ago, that possibility disappeared when they acquired ace Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals.
With Minnesota and Washington as the two main possible destinations left, the question remains—which team best suits Pavano’s services?
Washington is a not a bad place to go right now, as they have promising young talent along with veterans such as Rick Ankiel and Chein-Ming Wang. The Nats are a team that’s not a 100-loss team anymore, and might make a playoff run in five to ten years. The bad part is that Pavano is 35-years-old, so he probably wouldn’t stay.
Another reason why Pavano should not go to the Nationals is that they would have to overpay him (like they did with Jayson Werth), as Washington isn’t the most attractive place for the best pitcher left on the free-agent market.
If Washington does sign the right-hander, it looks like they might be onto something— perhaps a wild-card run in two years?
Minnesota better suits Pavano however, as they have something the Nats don’t. The Clubhouse.
Pavano has had no problems with the coaching staff, or with his teammates. Because he did pitch well, and rejoined the team before the 2010 season by accepting arbitration, it does hint Pavano like Minnesota.
This relates to Cliff Lee, who returned to Philadelphia largely due to the fact he loved it there.
And with Pavano being as good as he is right now with the Twins, why not return? The Twins are a playoff team, and no one wants to risk their career at a later age by underperforming for another team they have never pitched for.
The Minnesota Twins are the better option for Carl Pavano.
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The signing of Cliff Lee last week leaves Carl Pavano as arguably the most sought-after free agent starting pitcher left this offseason.
Apologies to the rumored to retire Andy Pettitte since it would be a shocker for Pettitte to sign with any team other than the Yankees.
Speaking of the Yankees, ask any Yankee fan, and he or she can tell you the risk of signing Pavano to a multi-year deal. His four-year, $39.95 million deal signed with the Yankees before the 2005 season can be characterized in one word: DISASTROUS!
In Pavano’s four injury-riddled seasons with the Yankees, he logged only 145.2 innings while posting an ERA just over 5.00. Just mention the rumored asking price of three years, $30 million to any Yankee fan, and you are sure to get a priceless reaction.
The laundry list of Pavano’s past injuries includes his right shoulder, bruised buttocks, elbow strain and two broken ribs from an automobile accident he failed to report to the Yankees until 13 days after it happened in August of 2006.
Sure, Pavano posted tantalizing numbers in 2010 with 17 wins, a 3.75 ERA and 1.195 WHIP. But consider that Pavano pitched 221 innings in 2010, only his second season of 125-plus innings since 2004, when he was 28. Pavano will be 35 in 2011 with a lot more mileage on his oft-injured body.
Every baseball fan knows the value of good pitching, but the prospect of paying Pavano $30 million over three years seems too risky.
If Pavano can come close to duplicating his 2010 production over the next three years, $30 million will be a bargain. But with his past history, $30 million over three years seems like an enormous risk to the team that decides to sign him.
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With most of the big name free agents signed, sealed and delivered to their respective teams, it’s time to look at what is still out there for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins still have plenty of questions at the major league level with the departure of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, J.J. Hardy, and Orlando Hudson. Will GM Bill Smith promote from within as is widely speculated to patch the bull pen together or will be go out and be aggressive as he were last January landing Hudson and Jim Thome? Let’s take a look at the ten players the Twins would still love to land this offseason.
Heading into the offseason, the Yankees considered themselves favorites to land Cliff Lee, and the Rangers definitely thought they had a chance. The Angels though they could sign Carl Crawford, and several teams around the league believed they could bring in Zack Greinke.
With all three players off the market—Lee in Philly, Greinke in Milwaukee and Crawford in Boston—GM’s around baseball are scrambling to find that backup plan, fill their budgets and put a competitive team on the field heading into 2011.
Some backup moves work out. But when teams panic, things rarely go well.
MLB free agency is in full swing with a lot of the top free agents already off the board.
Teams that missed out on the best available will be scouring the open market, looking for an extra bat or arm to give their team a boost. While the pickings are fairly slim at this point, there are still a couple of big names out there that could make an impact.
Of the available free agents, which are the best ones available?
Coming into the 2011 season, the Twins have a lot of questions marks:
Relief Pitching has been the main concern. After losing Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain out of free agency, only a few bullpen locks remain. Matt Capps was the steady closer for 2010, and Jose Mijares will most likely return with a bigger roll in 2011. Returning All-Star closer Joe Nathan should be ready for spring training, but it doesn’t make sense to expect too much from him after so recently undergoing elbow surgery.
Another area that could use help is starting pitching. It looks like Carl Pavano may return to the Twins with something like a 2 year/$20 million deal. But if they can’t retain him, The rotation would seem to look as follows: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. The Twins have recently announced that Slowey may be traded, so the retention of Pavano will be key this offseason.
As far as the lineup pans out, the Twins are looking good. Since negotiations are complete with Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the starting 9 may look something like this:
1. Denard Span (CF)
2. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2B or SS)
3. Joe Mauer (C)
4. Justin Morneau (1B)
5. Delmon Young (LF)
6. Jason Kubel (DH)
7. Michael Cuddyer (RF)
8. Danny Valencia (3B)
9. Alexi Casilla (2B or SS)
Depending on Nishioka’s effectiveness, the Twins could even move Span down in the order, and bat Nishioka and Casilla in the number 1 and 2 spots. Either way, having Span or Casilla at the bottom of the order bodes well speed-wise when they bat back into the top of the order.
If veteran Jim Thome returns to Minnesota, he would give the Twins a great DH option and pinch hitter. But regardless if he comes back, the Twins may look for another bat or two to grace the bench.
Trades and free agents could be the answer for the Twins, beyond their minor league depth. Let’s look at a few remaining free agents that could help the Twins in 2011.
Now that the winner of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes has been decided, the attention can turn to the rest of the free agent market. Carl Pavano is now the best free agent starting pitcher on the open market, and with Lee making a surprise move in returning to Philadelphia, teams have been left scrambling.
Pavano turned down the Twins‘ offer of arbitration in late November, effectively starting his time as a Type A free agent. Pavano has said that while he is entertaining offers from other organizations, he will give the Twins the opportunity to match the offers that are placed.
Carl Pavano could potentially solidify the Twins stability at the top of the rotation in 2011, but there is reason to believe that bringing Pavano back into the fold in 2011 could prove to be more harmful than helpful as the Twins look to defend their Central division championship.
With Cliff Lee Unavailable, Pavano’s Stock Has Risen
When Cliff Lee ultimately decided to shake up the free agency period by signing with a team other than the New York Yankees, he sent franchises scrambling for an answer to their own issues. Besides the Yankees, the Texas Rangers and Anaheim Angels were noted as options for Lee.
It would be a shock if the Yankees ended up bringing back Carl Pavano after the his disastrous stay in New York in 2005-08. A 9-8 record with a 5.00 ERA is disappointing for any starting pitcher over a three year period, but when you combine that with the fact that it came with a price tag of $30 million, a second stint in New York seems doubtful at best.
Still, teams like the Rangers and Angels could definitely make a move towards signing Pavano. The Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers have also been identified as teams pursuing his services – and with Pavano being the best option currently available, the asking price could very well go up.
Pavano Wants More Years Than Twins Want to Give
After displaying the success that Pavano has since heading to Minnesota, the Twins starter is seeking longer term stability than arbitration can offer. Since Pavano joined the Twins in late 2009, he has a combined 22-15 record with a 3.97 ERA. Pavano’s consistency has been an important part of the Twins success, as his high number of complete games and ability to control pitch counts have provided the bullpen with occasional breaks from action.
A performance over such a span would warrant a long term deal for almost any pitcher. Pavano’s case is different however – as he will turn 35 before entering spring training in 2011. A long term deal would be out of the question for Pavano, as his performance will likely decline as the years progress.
Nevertheless, Pavano’s camp seems to be holding out for a suitor that will offer a three or four year deal, while it’s becoming apparent that the Twins would prefer to keep Pavano for two years if he were to remain a Twin.
Twins Need to Move Towards Youth, Bring in Greinke
While bringing back Carl Pavano as a number two starter for the Twins in 2011 may be an option, his age prevents him from being a long term solution for the franchise.
The Twins have been mentioned as a potential suitor for the services of Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke, a move that would make sense for the team.
Link: 10 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Should Acquire Zack Greinke
It seems a long shot at best for Greinke to end up with the Twins in 2011, as trading within the division typically comes with a higher asking price, and other teams may offer a more attractive package to the Royals. However even if the Twins don’t end up with Greinke, they’ll ultimately need to pursue options that will be long term options to accompany Fransisco Liriano at the top of the rotation.
The Success of Pavano’s 2010 Likely Won’t be Duplicated
Breaking down Carl Pavano’s 2010 season will show the most consistent numbers of any starter in the Twins’ staff. Pavano’s 17 win season is the second most of his career, bested only by his all-star campaign in 2004. The 3.75 ERA that Pavano was able to earn is also the second best full season of his career, again only lower with the Marlins in 2004.
Pavano’s career numbers have been far more mediocre, with a 97-89 overall record and an ERA just under 4.50. Pavano’s overall performance declined as the innings piled up throughout the 2010 season, and since Pavano isn’t getting any younger, it’s likely that his 2010 stat line won’t look the same in 2011, no matter what team he plays for.
The current state of the Twins’ rotation is far from stable, and with the struggles that pitchers Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker endured at times in 2010, the Twins may feel obligated to bring Pavano in to add consistency. Still, the Twins need to think long and hard about signing Pavano to a contract outside of their comfort zone, as the risk could very well outweigh the reward.
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Well, after a much ballyhooed week of throwing money on the table at Cliff Lee, both the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers ended up coming home empty handed as the Philadelphia Phillies came out of nowhere to win the sweepstakes.
Now, the world seems to have stopped considering the fact that four nine-figure contracts have been doled out so far this offseason, and none of them are being paid for by the Yankees.
Well, all is not lost with New York yet. Sure, they have a rotation that can be considered shaky at best, with a considerable head case in A.J Burnett waiting to give up seven runs in any given inning and Andy Pettite remaining unsigned, but it’s not the end of the world.
The good news is that the failed experiment that was Javier Vazquez’s second stint in the Bronx is over, and Yankee fans will not have to deal with watching him yak away a game in the second inning.
There are still some veritable options out there to fill in for a season or two before either a trade happens or a young guy steps up to fill the role.
So, let’s take a look at the guys still out there who have the ability to step in and be the man somewhere near the back of the rotation for the season.