Tag: Brian McCann

Texas Rangers: The Next Moves Jon Daniels Needs to Make This Offseason

With the shocking Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder trade on Wednesday night, the Texas Rangers took the baseball world by storm.  

Finally—and let me emphasize that—Texas has a premier power bat at first base.  Since GM Jon Daniels traded Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves in 2007, the club has tried desperately to fill the position on a trial-and-error basis.  

Prince Fielder is a huge offensive upgrade over Mitch Moreland at first. He will boost the Rangers’ offensive output immediately.

But Daniels has made it clear: he’s not done. Not at all. He’s been open about his search to fill the two remaining needs for his club: another catcher and an outfielder.  

With that said, here are the moves I think Daniels needs to make to fill out the 2014 Texas Rangers roster.

 

1. Sign Brian McCann

According to The New York Daily News’ Anthony McCarron’s piece, the Rangers and Yankees are the front runners for McCann’s services. 

This was once an obvious “YES!!!” for just about every Ranger fan, but many seemed to have shied away from him a bit since the Fielder acquisition. There is a school of thought that both Fielder and McCann—because of body type and injury history respectively—will eventually need to DH during the back years of their contracts.  

Since Fielder is signed for seven years, and it will likely take six years to sign McCann, there could be a logjam of DH candidates. These fans aren’t counting on McCann catching full time over the life of his contract. I agree that he certainly won’t.  

Is $100 million or more for McCann worth that potential knot in a few years?

Also, these Rangers fans will point to 20-year-old catcher Jorge Alfaro in the minors. He’s drawn Pudge Rodriguez comparisons with his big arm and elite power.

He could be truly ready to start with the Rangers by 2016, by which time McCann would still have three remaining years on his contract.

These are all fair points, and could ultimately be the reasons Daniels doesn’t sign McCann.

But here is why he should.

a. McCann will be 30 for all of next season.  Since his birthday is on February 20, he’ll never turn a year older during a season.  Maybe it doesn’t make a difference.  Just a thought.

b. Geovany Soto cannot be this team’s best catcher. While he is a quality backup with some pop and a decent arm, that’s about it. I do not believe he is capable of catching 130 or more games.  He’s only signed through 2014, and isn’t a long-term option behind the plate.

c. All of last season, the Rangers had a serious deficit of left-handed hitting.  A.J. Pierzynski was really the only consistent lefty hitter, and it’s very likely he isn’t returning.  Mitch Moreland only hit .232 and carried a .299 OBP, per ESPNLeonys Martin showed flashes of potential, but seemed like a roll of the dice at times.

McCann would provide a consistent, power and average presence in the middle of the order. 

d. Take a look at McCann’s resume. Seven-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, led the National League in fielding percentage in 2012 and has finished top five in the NL in number of games caught in six of his eight career years. Three times, he finished top three in the NL in catcher assists, per baseball-reference.com.

e. Of any catcher available, he’s the best combination of offense and defense.  While he doesn’t feature an impressive caught stealing percentage—just 23.8 percent for his career, per ESPN—he blocks the plate very well.

f. He has shown he can effectively handle a pitching staff over a whole season.  His catcher’s earned run average last season was 2.98 per ESPN, meaning that when McCann was behind the plate the Braves’ team ERA was under three.  That’s pretty impressive.

With Texas, Soto started just under half the games McCann did in 2013, yet his CERA was 3.67, per ESPN

g. Rangers fans: can you imagine a 3-6 of Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre and Brian McCann? Whoa. That’s a loaded mixture of power on both sides of the plate. Balance of lefty and righty hitters is key. 

h. As you can see in that video, McCann is also a stand-up guy.  This makes for a special addition to the clubhouse and team chemistry.  He’s a hard worker and wants to win.

 

2.  Sign Shin-Soo Choo 

Choo, 31, is perhaps the most complete player on the free agent market.  He really does it all—hits for average and power, gets on base, steals bases and is an solid defender in right field.  

The price of all of these tools? In his cost projection of Choo, Jay Jaffe of SI.com suggests the right fielder could receive a five-year, $100 million offer.  

I’d be all in on a five-year deal for Choo. And I don’t mind paying a little more per year if it shortens the length of the contact. This, instead of say a six-year, $115 million deal.

The years and dollars could vary slightly off of that projection, but the fact is that Choo‘s agent is Scott Boras. You know what that means: Choo will get max money for his skill set.  If Jon Daniels signs him, it would be Texas’ fourth $100 million plus contract.  

I might get some backlash for this, but here’s why Daniels should sign Choo.

a. He is an IDEAL leadoff hitter.  Per ESPN, he took 112 walks last season, good for a whopping 19.6 percent of his at bats.  This was a huge part of his mind-boggling .423 OBP.  Once Choo was on base, he stole a respectable 20 bases. 

b. He has power—both to the gaps and to the fences.  If he played in Arlington, it’s fair to assume he would increase upon his 2013 home run total of 21.  He hit 34 doubles last season, and that figures to remain consistent. His 2013 .285 batting average is no slouch either.

c. He is at least an average defender in right field, and would join a speedy corps of Leonys Martin and Alex Rios in the outfield.  Rios could conceivably move to left, with Choo taking over in right. In 588 career games in right, Choo has a solid .985 fielding percentage, per ESPN.

If Choo isn’t signed, it will certainly be because of the hefty contract he is seeking, and that’s understandable.  He may also scare some potential suitors off with his lefty-righty batting splits.  He struggled against left-handed pitchers mightily in 2013, hitting just .215, per ESPN

But don’t let that taint his .317 batting average against right-handed pitchers. 

Signing Choo would cost the Rangers a draft pick, since the Reds extended him a qualifying offer. This shouldn’t be the tipping point in a decision not to sign him however. The Rangers will get that pick back when Nelson Cruz signs elsewhere.

The Rangers can afford both Choo and McCann. It’s just a matter of the front office wanting to. This ownership group is aggressive, has deep pockets and a burning desire to win after being so close to glory in 2010 and 2011. Signing both of these players is entirely possible.

Here is the lineup I’d like to see in 2014 if Daniels hauls in both of these players.

RF Shin-Soo Choo

SS Elvis Andrus

LF Alex Rios

1B Prince Fielder

3B Adrian Beltre

C Brian McCann

DH Mitch Moreland

CF Leonys Martin

2B Jurickson Profar

I truly believe that is a World Series-contending lineup. Look, I know it’s ideal to be successful while not spending boatloads of cash.  But we’ve seen how Billy Beane’s system works out in Oakland. With cheap, cost-effective talent you can only make it so far.  

That Athletics team had problems when it ran into the Tigers, who flat out had more talent.  

The Rangers should be ready to spend money to win now.  

 

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San Francisco Giants: Exploring Their Options This Offseason

The San Francisco Giants, for the first time in a long time, are going to make splashy moves in the offseason.

San Francisco already dished out lofty amounts of money to retain Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum, but    there is still more to do. Left field needs to be upgraded, the pitching staff needs to be filled out and the bench needs improvement.

What should the Giants do this offseason?

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Brian McCann Would Be Wrong Free-Agent Investment for Champion Red Sox

With the confetti still lining the city streets following their World Series victory, the Boston Red Sox are plotting moves that will help bring the franchise a second consecutive championship next year. 

One of the premiere names on the free-agent market is Brian McCann, who could upgrade what is already the best offenses in baseball and fill a void at catcher if Jarrod Saltalamacchia signs elsewhere. 

Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal noted that because the Red Sox didn’t give Saltalamacchia a $14.1 million qualifying offer, meaning he will be free to sign with another team without draft-pick compensation, McCann is on the team’s radar. 

But beyond Saltalamacchia, whose free-agent market the Red Sox could have undercut had they tendered a qualifying offer, the market for catchers is thin.

–snip–

The rest of the free-agent class is a hodge-podge of mediocrity or worse — except for Brian McCann, who at this point looks like Boston’s primary free-agent target.

I find it interesting that the Red Sox would be in on a player like McCann, who is likely to command at least a four- or five-year contract.

Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York, talking to an MLB general manager, wrote McCann could get a deal in the range of six years, $100 million this offseason.

One big thing general Ben Cherington has done in his two years as general manager is avoid handing out significant long-term commitments to free agents and been able to rid the roster of expensive contracts stretched out over four or five seasons. 

Last year, for example, despite adding a lot of players to the roster via free agency (Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara and David Ross), none of them got a deal longer than three years. 

There is no doubt that, when healthy, McCann is one of the best catchers in baseball. Take a look at his offensive output compared to other backstops around the game. 

McCann is one of the three best catchers in baseball when it comes to offensive production, including six consecutive seasons with at least 20 home runs and no fewer than 18 in a season since becoming a full-time player in 2006. 

However, you will notice I made a point to say “when healthy.” McCann has had problems staying on the field the last two years, which has taken a toll on his production. He’s played in just 223 games since the start of 2012, hitting .242/.316/.426 in 889 plate appearances. 

Age and defense are also working against McCann. He is going to turn 30 February 20. With nine years of professional catching experience under his belt, there is a lot of wear and tear on his body. He already had shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum in October 2012, which is a big reason he’s missed so much time the last two years. 

McCann does earn high marks for blocking, receiving and pitch framing. He actually finished the 2012 season as the No. 23 catcher in baseball defensively (out of 116 players listed). 

That said, McCann’s defensive value has declined every year since his high-water mark in 2010. 

On top of that, there are the residual effects of McCann’s shoulder surgery. His best season throwing out would-be base stealers was 2010, when he caught them 30 percent of the time. Those numbers have dropped to 24 percent the last two years, which would have ranked 13th out of 15 catchers if he logged enough innings to qualify as an everyday player. 

If the Red Sox have reason to believe McCann’s offensive output will get back to the level it was prior to the 2012 season, or believe he’s good enough to stay behind the plate for the duration of a long-term contract, he would be a solid investment. 

Even if McCann’s offensive numbers stay where they’ve been the last two years and he can stay behind the plate for the majority of a contract, his value would be high because the threshold for catching is so low. 

The Red Sox have been cognizant of how much money they spend and whom they spend it on. They gave Dustin Pedroia $100 million over the summer because they’ve known him since he was drafted in 2004. Even in years when injuries have cost him time, his performance hasn’t suffered that much. 

Pedroia’s lowest OPS in a season was .787 in 2013, but he still got on base at a .372 clip and played most of the year with a torn ligament in his thumb that undoubtedly played a role in his lack of power. 

One advantage the Red Sox have is backup catcher David Ross, who played with McCann in Atlanta from 2009-12. He can give the team a scouting report on the kind of player and person his former teammate is. 

For all the positives McCann might bring to a clubhouse, an investment of this magnitude in a player whose numbers have dropped in recent years and doesn’t figure to stick as a catcher for the duration of a contract isn’t what the Red Sox need to do right now. 

I understand the need to find a starting catcher, but why not attempt to retain Saltalamacchia if that’s the case? He’s almost 15 months younger, is coming off a season with a career-high 54 extra-base hits and doesn’t figure to cost as much in years or dollars. 

Like McCann, Saltalamacchia has had issues throwing base stealers out (23 percent) during his career. Where McCann’s defensive metrics are declining, Saltalamacchia’s continue to get better. 

Is Saltalamacchia likely to duplicate his .273/338/.466 line from 2013 again? No, because a .372 batting average on balls in play isn’t sustainable for a player with a 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but low-average, high-power, above-average defensive catchers still have incredible value. 

Just because the Red Sox didn’t give Saltalamacchia a qualifying offer doesn’t mean they won’t negotiate with him or don’t want him back. 

Cherington is too smart to make a foolish investment that provides some short-term gain over long-term stability. McCann will be worth three or four wins in 2013 and 2014, but that production is likely to drop in three years based on recent patterns in his performance. 

 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

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4 Top Prospects Ready to Replace MLB Teams’ Free-Agent Departures

From an outside perspective, Major League Baseball’s offseason can be difficult to understand. Unlike the NBA, NFL and NHL, a salary cap isn’t present to handcuff the ability of an organization to retain stars with expiring pacts.

Yet, despite the lack of a unified budget for each team, owners and front office executives have limits for each player during the hot-stove season.

Just two years ago, the St. Louis Cardinals allowed Albert Pujols to walk in free agency when the Los Angeles Angels offered him a contract well in excess of $200 million. Instead of folding the tent, St. Louis handed the first base job to a young player developed through its system named Allen Craig.

Due to Craig’s limited service time, his salary was just $495,000 in 2012. With the money allocated to a potential Pujols deal, the Cardinals gave Adam Wainwright a contract extension and signed Carlos Beltran to help fill the power void in the middle of their lineup.

This winter, expect similar decisions to be made all around baseball. When a star leaves in free agency, the door is opened for a young player within the system to become a starter and dollars to be allocated differently throughout the roster.

Here are four top prospects ready to fill the shoes of free agents on the path to departing their 2013 teams.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: Oscar Taveras in, Carlos Beltran out.

If you think St. Louis is going to eschew logic and overpay for Beltran’s age-37 season, you haven’t been paying attention to the way the Cardinals do business lately.

Despite raking on the national stage in October, Beltran’s on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and WAR all slipped considerably from 2012 to 2013. It’s hard to imagine St. Louis showing him the door if he was willing to come back at a below-market-value rate, but if the star outfielder is looking for one last lucrative deal, it won’t come from the team that has his replacement ready in the minors.

If not for injury, baseball fans would have seen Oscar Taveras in the majors in 2013. As Bleacher Report’s MLB Prospects Lead Writer Mike Rosenbaum wrote about the 21-year-old outfielder in September, Taveras will be able to replace Beltran’s bat quickly.

Per Rosenbaum: “Taveras has 25-plus-home run potential; lift to swing; ball has carry; extra-base machine. Hits same-side pitching; makes loud contact to all fields; comfortable hitting any pitch in any count.

2. Boston Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr. in, Jacoby Ellsbury out.

While Tavares, rated as the No. 3 prospect in baseball by Rosenbaum, is simply too talented to block by re-signing Beltran to another deal, Boston’s outfield shuffle will have more to do with philosophy than making the team better in 2014. 

As I wrote when pointing out why Ellsbury wouldn’t be a smart target for the New York Yankees, Boston’s offense with him atop the order was a much more prolific group than it was when he was injured. Although Bradley Jr. projects to be a regular player on a first-division team, he’s not going to come close to replacing the 2011 AL MVP runner-up in Ellsbury.

Boston’s front office knows this, but don’t expect it to suddenly jump back into the business of handing out contracts in excess of seven years or $100 million.

Don’t believe me? Listen to what team president Larry Lucchino had to say when appearing as a guest on WEEI in Boston.

“I don’t want to rule out anything, except that there will be a presumption against doing any very long-term deals,” Lucchino said. “I think we’ve crossed that bridge and we realized that there’s a better way to spend money, that free agency and long-term deals are not the best way to build a franchise or to succeed over time. So there is a very strong presumption against that.”

3. Atlanta Braves: Christian Bethancourt in, Brian McCann out.

Free agent Brian McCann’s impending departure from Atlanta, after nine highly successful seasons, is often tied to the Braves’ belief in power-hitting catcher Evan Gattis. While Gattis‘ breakout 2013 (21 HR, .480 SLG) is reason to shy away from overpaying McCann, it’s the presence of another promising young catcher in Atlanta that should keep fans from worrying about their future behind the plate.

When Christian Bethancourt was called up in September, after posting a .741 OPS with Double-A Mississippi, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez raved about his talent to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

“We think the world of [Bethancourt] defensively,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “He’s had a nice season offensively at Double-A. We’ll bring him up here and just let him get some experience.

Between Bethancourt‘s defense and emerging offense and Gattis‘ power stick, the Braves are covered when McCann departs.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jameson Taillon in, A.J. Burnett out.

To be fair, the 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates’ best shot at the franchise’s first World Series title since 1979 would be with both Burnett and the 21-year-old Taillon in the rotation. If Pittsburgh could sport a quartet of Francisco Liriano, Burnett, Gerrit Cole and Taillon atop its staff, the NL Central could belong to the Bucs.

Of course, Pittsburgh can if Burnett chooses to stick around for one more season. Unlike St. Louis with Beltran, Boston with Ellsbury or Atlanta with McCann, this isn’t a case of dollars and value. After what Burnett became on the mound and in the clubhouse for the Pittsburgh organization, he would be brought back at a fair rate by Pirates management.

Yet, after 15 big league seasons, Burnett is contemplating retirement this offseason. The subject, first brought into the mainstream by Hardball Talk in March, didn’t die down as the season progressed for the 94-win Pirates.

After the conclusion of Pittsburgh’s division series loss to St. Louis, team president Frank Coonelly made it clear that the team would welcome him back during a conversation with Bill Brink of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“He’s got a decision to make, first and foremost, whether it’s time for him to spend more time with his family or whether he thinks he can go another year,” Coonelly said. “If he decides that he wants to come back, we definitely want A.J. back.”

If Burnett does depart, Taillon, a former first-round pick, will be asked to fill major shoes in the 2014 Pirates rotation. Bleacher Report’s Mike Rosenbaum projects him to be a No. 3 starter during his big league career but would likely have to reach that potential almost immediately to fill the void of Burnett.

However, if Burnett does decide to stick around for one more run at a ring in Pittsburgh, Taillon can be eased into a fourth starter role and given the chance to progress at his own pace.

Agree? Disagree? Can these prospects replace the veterans?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Brian McCann Rumors: Latest Buzz and Speculation Surrounding Star C

Brian McCann has spent his entire career with the Atlanta Braves and has been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball over that span. As he prepares to enter free agency this winter, the rumors and the speculation are already starting to heat up.

McCann was limited to just 102 games in 2013 due to injury, most notably a shoulder ailment that cost him the first five weeks of the regular season. He still managed to tally 20 home runs for the sixth straight season, however.

His track record of success at the plate is going to attract a lot of attention on the open market, especially since he plays a position with a limited number of impact hitters. It could lead to a bidding war between teams in need of an upgrade behind the plate.

Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports that one general manager believes McCann’s value at a mediocre position could allow him to fetch a six-year contract worth around $100 million. The fact that he could transition to another role later in the deal helps his cause.

Brian McCann could receive a deal for six years and $100 million, an MLB GM told ESPN New York on Tuesday. The GM reasoned that McCann is a top-five catcher and could transition to first and DH toward the end of the deal.

The report also states that the New York Yankees could get involved in the McCann sweepstakes depending on the outcome of Alex Rodriguez‘s appeal. The price tag could ultimately scare them away, though.

As for the Braves, the rumored amount McCann could demand in free agency combined with the club’s depth at the position makes it tough to imagine him remaining in Atlanta.

Breakout star Evan Gattis slugged 21 home runs and provided several key hits for the Braves to help spark their run to the division title. Add in 22-year-old Christian Bethancourt, who’s almost ready to make the jump to the majors, and Atlanta should feel confident in its depth at the position.

The Braves have bigger needs to fill looking ahead to 2014, starting with finding an ace to headline a solid rotation that’s lacked a true No. 1.

Assuming Atlanta opts to use the resources it would take to re-sign McCann to fill other needs, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports several big-market teams are already showing interest, led by the rival Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

Early predictions that he could reach $100 million may be a bit ambitious, but it has to help that the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs and Angels all are candidates to sign a catcher and could be major McCann players. The Blue Jays and White Sox are among the teams that could have an interest, as well. The Giants and Rockies are said to like McCann very much, but Colorado is very unlikely to be able to afford him and it’s hard to imagine how the San Francisco would make it work with superstar catcher Buster Posey and young first baseman Brandon Belt.

With that many teams potentially involved, McCann should have little trouble scoring a huge deal.

The fact that he won’t turn 30 until next February also works in his favor because teams don’t have to worry as much about a major drop off toward the end of the deal. He could shift to first base like many catchers have done and still provide some power.

All told, McCann could easily become one of the most sought-after free agents during the offseason. Catchers who are consistent offensive contributors are major assets, and the longtime Brave certainly falls into that category.

The list of possible suitors should become more clear once teams finalize their winter game plans in the coming weeks.

 

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2013 MLB Postseason Stock Watch for Upcoming Free Agents, Week 1

How a player performs when the games matter most could have an affect on his overall value, which is of greater importance to those who are eligible for free agency at season’s end. 

While a majority of these players will not stand out in a good or bad way, there are a handful of them who will. As a result, the price tag could rise or fall, at least slightly. A pair of 2012 postseason stars, Marco Scutaro and Anibal Sanchez, each cashed in after boosting their value greatly with strong playoff performances. 

Here are six players off to either a great start or a very poor start, or in one case, already done for the season after a wild-card loss. 

 

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Previewing Free Agent Names the Atlanta Braves Should Be Chasing This Offseason

Like the Red Sox, whose offseason free agent targets I previewed yesterday, the Braves are one of the best teams in baseball without too many weaknesses on their current roster. The difference is that the Sox have several key players headed for free agency while the Braves have just one—catcher Brian McCann. And they could choose to replace him internally. 

So, barring a quick exit from the playoffs, which could intensify their pursuit of an impact player this winter, it could be a very quiet offseason in Atlanta. That doesn’t mean they won’t have their eye on several free agents who could help strengthen the roster and provide the much-needed depth to compete over a long season. 

Here are some free agents they could pursue in four different areas of potential need.

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2014 MLB Free Agents: Players Who Need to Put Up Big Numbers in 2013

In recent weeks, several teams have locked up franchise icons, including the Giants’ Buster Posey, the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright and the Tigers’ Justin Verlander. Without these key players hitting free agency in coming years, teams will have to work with what remains. 

A few players stand to gain tremendously from these signings, but will need to put up good numbers this season if they want to cash in on long-term deals this offseason. Here are my top five free agents in need of a strong 2013 campaign.

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Decisions Looming for the Atlanta Braves’ Roster for 2013

The plan was for Turner Field to still be filing in nearly 50,000 Braves fans for the postseason. Unfortunately, the lasting images remembered are the cleanup crews picking up debris from angry Atlanta fans after the infield fly call made by Sam Holbrook and Chipper Jones walking off the diamond for the final time. It wasn’t suppose to end that way. 

Nonetheless, decisions have to be made about the 2013 club. Who will replace Chipper at third? Will they re-sign gold-glove center fielder Michael Bourn? Do Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm fit into their plans next season? Will Martin Prado and Jason Heyward receive long-term contracts? Who are free-agent and trade targets?

Those are just a few items on the docket for General Manager Frank Wren this winter. 

The Braves have nearly $30 million to spend after the contracts of Chipper Jones ($14 million), Derek Lowe ($10 million) and Michael Bourn ($6.8 million) are erased from the books. Expect starter Jair Jurrjens, who made $5.5 million in 2012, to be non-tendered or released.

Atlanta is expected to pick up the options of Brian McCann ($12 million), Tim Hudson ($9 million) and Paul Maholm ($6.5 million)—as they should. All three are key components to the team’s success. 

The Braves could re-sign David Ross because of McCann’s shoulder surgery, which will sideline him at least through the majority of spring training.

It may be the perfect time to look into long-term contracts for Martin Prado and outfielder Jason Heyward

Prado was arguably the most valuable player for the Braves in 2012 with a .301 average. He also led the league in two-strike base hits (93). He can play a number of positions if needed. He is signed through 2013, and the organization can’t risk losing a high-caliber player like Prado after next season.

 

Heyward, 23, had a bounce-back 2012 campaign after a sophomore year in which he was plagued by injuries and constant struggles. The 2007 first-round pick set career highs in runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases and slugging percentage. He was spectacular in right field, as he made some big catches for Atlanta in key moments throughout the season. It will be cheaper to get a long-term deal done rather than going through the eventual arbitration process.

The starting rotation is likely to be set with Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Hudson and Maholm. Brandon Beachy is on track to re-join the rotation from “Tommy John” elbow surgery around the All-Star break. 

The two biggest decisions facing the Braves in the off-season are at third and the outfield. The likelihood is Prado finds a home at third. The Braves have played the 28-year-old at multiple positions, primarily left field since the acquisition of Dan Uggla before the 2011 season.

The outfield could go a number of different ways: re-sign Michael Bourn and bring back Jose Constanza to play left or let Bourn go and find two cheaper options to play left and center.

Bourn is expected to net around $15 million a year from a club in the free-agent market. The Braves can afford it, but it wouldn’t be fiscally responsible. There are cheaper targets out there via free-agency or the trade market. 

B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Angel Pagan and Cody Ross are all potential free-agent targets for Atlanta. None will command the level of money that Bourn will this winter. 

Upton, 28, is looking for a fresh start after spending his entire career to this point with the Tampa Bay Rays. The center fielder hit 28 homers in 2012. The level of consistency may be a concern for him. Other than 2007 when he hit .300, the former first-round selection has a career average of .248.

Victorino, whom the Braves know well from his days in Philadelphia, could be an option, as the Dodgers may not see him as a fit with Carl Crawford’s eventual return from Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old has a career .333 average in 60 games at Turner Field, which is tops among national league ballparks.

Pagan is familiar with the N.L. East from his days with the New York Mets. The outfielder hit .288 with eight homers and 56 RBI in 154 games with the Giants. He would be a cheaper option for Atlanta, as he would command in the area of $5 million after making $4.85 million in 2012. Pagan hit .290 in 80 games as the San Francisco lead-off hitter this season.

Braves fans remember how Ross tormented them during the 2010 postseason. A big game-tying home run and a go-ahead single lifted the Giants to a 3-2 game four victory in Bobby Cox’s last game as Atlanta’s manager. The 31-year-old Ross played well in his second stint in the A.L, as he batted .267 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI in 130 games with the Boston Red Sox. Ross has a career .300 average at Turner Field in 31 games and would see regular time as the left fielder. 

Josh Willingham is a perfect fit for the Braves via the trade market if they wish to pursue it. The 33-year-old, who is owed $14 million through 2014, hit 35 home runs and 110 RBI for the Minnesota Twins in 2012. The $7 million a year price tag combined with the level of production annually should garner the Braves’ interest. 

The bullpen should be a strength for the Braves again in 2013 with the return of closer Craig Kimbrel, who has saved 88 games in his two full seasons in the majors. Top left-handed setup man Eric O’Flaherty will be entering into his final arbitration year and could make upwards of $4 million.

Christian Martinez, Luis Avilan, Jonny Venters, Cory Gearrin, Chad Durbin and Peter Moylan are all expected to be in the mix for spots again in 2013. 

Important decisions will be made this winter, but the Braves should be at or near the top of the division standings again next season. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @Andrew_Vig

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Fantasy Baseball 2012 Preview: How Will San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey Fare?

One of the more important storylines in baseball this spring training is the health and bounce-back ability of San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey. If you recall, Posey was the roadblock who got steamrolled last season in a home-plate collision with the Florida Marlins’ Scott Cousins, which resulted in Posey’s season-ending surgery to repair a broken bone and three torn ankle ligaments.

Prior to that high-speed, high-profile collision, Posey was following up his 2010 NL Rookie of the Year campaign with a respectable sophomore season. In the 45 games played before he went down, he was batting .284 with four home runs and 21 runs batted in. Though his numbers did not exactly jump off the computer screen, Posey’s presence in the lineup far exceeds raw statistics. As the team’s cleanup hitter, he provides a legitimate right-handed bat to a famished Giants offense that ranked dead last in the league in runs scored.

The Giants sorely missed Posey’s production in the heart of the order. His replacements, Hector Sanchez, Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside, combined for a .200 batting average in 2011. They were often clogging up the eight-hole in the batting order, and it forced manager Bruce Bochy to play “eeny, meeny, miny, mo” when filling out the rest of the lineup.

Needless to say, with Posey’s bat, the Giants could have at least squeaked into the playoffs as the NL wild card last year. And with him back to full strength this spring training, San Francisco has high aspirations in returning to the postseason this October. While the Giants are pinning the team’s success in 2012 on their slugging catcher, more importantly, the return of Posey bodes well for fantasy baseball owners. After all, there is a dearth of solid contributors at the catcher position throughout the MLB. Though Posey is only entering his third season, and has only 160 career games under his belt, the soon-to-be 25-year-old is still considered one of the game’s elite catchers—despite missing two-thirds of last season.

In fact, most fantasy baseball projections still forecast Posey as a top-five catcher. ESPN.com ranks him as the fifth-best catcher available, squeezed between Matt Wieters and Alex Aliva, and FantasyBaseballTools.com slots him in the top tier of catchers that includes Carlos Santana, Brian McCann and Mike Napoli. NYTimes.com, however, projects Posey to be the sixth-best catcher in 2012, behind Joe Mauer and ahead of Miguel Montero.

What does this all mean? Well, for one, the battle to be one of the top-five catchers in the majors is a tight one. Mauer, of course, is a lock, albeit only when he’s not on the disabled list. Unfortunately, his history of injuries prevents him from being a sure-fire top-five pick. In years past, Mauer could have been considered as a genuine first-round selection in some fantasy drafts. Now, it’s a tough call to predict a) how healthy he’ll be, and b) how many starts at first base he’ll draw.

The consensus is that Santana, McCann and Napoli will all be nabbed within the first four rounds. Assuming a regular 5×5 rotisserie league, Yahoo! Sports projects Posey to be a late sixth-round pick in its fantasy baseball mock draft. Solid estimates for his 2012 stats, according to NYTimes.com, include a .292 batting average with 16 home runs and 70 runs driven in—very similar to his 2010 Rookie of the Year résumé (.305/18/67). 

Those numbers are respectable, especially for a catcher. The only caveat is Posey’s own return to full health. True, it’s only spring training, but Posey has sparingly demonstrated his baserunning, as well as the endurance to catch a full nine innings on consecutive days. “He’s not there,” acknowledged Bochy. But there’s still time, obviously.

Fantasy owners, however, should be cautious assuming Posey will bounce back so quickly. Though he is a naturally gifted hitter who could probably sport a .300 batting average with one leg, Posey will have to get up to speed in his all-around game to be considered a higher pick on the fantasy draft board. Furthermore, in order to ensure that Posey performs at the offensive level he is capable of, San Francisco needs to make sure that he is protected throughout the batting order. According to the Giants lineup projected by Rotochamp.com, first baseman Aubrey Huff could potentially bat behind Posey, in the fifth spot in the order, followed by Brandon Belt.

Huff trudged through a World-Series-hangover-laden 2011 season, finishing with a terrible .246 batting average, 12 home runs and 59 runs batted in. He also scored an abysmal 45 runs, his lowest output since 2001. Belt, meanwhile, experienced one of those tortuous rookie seasons last year, staggering to a .225 batting average, with nine homers and 18 runs driven in, in 63 games played.

Yikes. Not the kind of protection one would hope for Posey.

Could Bochy consider moving the Giants’ only other bona fide hitter, Pablo Sandoval, to the five hole? Or bat Sandoval fourth and Posey third? If not, then look for a significant number of intentional walks for the right-handed-hitting Posey, as both Belt and Huff are left-handed hitters behind him. That certainly won’t boost Posey’s fantasy numbers all that quickly. Additionally, if new Giants leadoff man Angel Pagan is unable to set the table effectively at the top of the order, Posey may struggle to find himself in run-scoring opportunities.

Without a doubt, however, the question will be whether fantasy owners would want to gamble and pick up Posey earlier in the draft, ahead of other catchers like McCann or Wieters. McCann is a perennial All-Star, who has slugged over 20 home runs in five of the past six seasons, and over 40 extra base hits in six straight seasons. Furthermore, he posts a .286 career batting average. Though he gets plenty of rest in Atlanta—not starting in more than 133 games in each of the past three seasons—for the sake of this analysis, Posey is still the lesser picker.

Meanwhile, Wieters is the likely candidate to slip from his career season in 2011. His 22 home runs and 50 extra base hits were quite impressive, as was the fact that he scored more runs (72) than he drove in (68). Well, maybe not impressive so much as interesting. But if Posey is as healthy as he can be throughout 2012, it’s possible that he could outperform Wieters. The Baltimore Orioles are equally as likely to not scare their opponents offensively.

Can Posey be ranked higher than Wieters?

A good catcher is hard to find for owners, both real and fantasy. Picking up Posey in the late fourth round or fifth round would not be the worst idea in the world, considering that other positions have way more depth and are less predictable (starting pitchers).

Make no mistake about it: If Posey is given a clean bill of health heading out of spring training, fantasy owners might come away with a steal in their league drafts by picking him higher than projected.

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