This season, there’s a euphoria that has consumed Chicago Cubs fans unlike anything the city’s North Side has seen for, say, a little over 100 years.
The lovable losers finally have their World Series contender. Heck, let’s just come right out and say it: This team is the favorite to win it all. In case you haven’t heard, there’s a summer-long party raging at Wrigley Field. The team hasn’t won anything yet except a whole bunch of regular-season games. But can you blame its fans for enjoying the ride?
As lifelong Cubs fans party like it’s 1908, one of the team’s newcomers has to be quietly thanking baseball’s higher power (his name in Chicago is team president of baseball operations Theo Epstein) more than anyone for the Cubs’ incredible success.
Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million contract this offseason, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In his first year with the Cubs, Heyward has thus far posted an awful slash line of .235/.326/.325.
It’s inarguable that Heyward has been inept offensively. For those who want to try, the sky is blue and water is wet, in case that isn’t apparent either.
Chicago’s success this season has camouflaged Heyward’s failures.
The right fielder’s struggles haven’t been as prominent because the Cubs have been so good. Any discussion about a player’s success or failure is predicated on the idea that fans want the team to win.
The Cubs have done so this season, holding MLB’s best record at 51-27. Heyward playing better wouldn’t do much for the Cubs as far as the standings are concerned. And in the regular season, there’s no higher to go than baseball’s best record.
But the condensed nature of the playoffs—short series relative to a 162-game schedule—magnify a player’s struggles or successes. Come October, Heyward’s reeling bat in the No. 2 spot in the lineup could negatively impact a series for the Cubs.
And beyond this season, if he continues to struggle offensively, his contract could become an albatross.
Yes, Heyward has been the defensive stalwart the Cubs expected when they signed him to a long-term deal. He is third amongst outfielders with an ultimate zone rating of 10.3 and fourth with a defensive WAR of 7.6, according to FanGraphs.
But his total WAR, the ultimate calculation of a player’s value, is only 1.1 (per FanGraphs)—an extremely low number for someone making Heyward money. And he wouldn’t have gotten such a lucrative contract had he not hit .293/.359/.439 with the St. Louis Cardinals last season.
The fact is that Heyward may be known best for his defense. But his contract suggests an expectation that he help the team at the plate as well. He does, after all, hit second for the Cubs.
It’s not just the totality of his struggles, either.
Heyward seems to come up short in the biggest moments of a game. With runners on base, he is only hitting .205 and has just six extra-base hits on the year in those situations.
Thought by everyone in baseball to be the prize of last winter’s free-agent class of position players, Heyward has more strikeouts (27) than hits (25) with runners on base. And when runners are in scoring position, he is hitting only .227/.311/.318.
Come playoff time, starting rotations shrink. A team’s best pitchers play more. And opportunities to score runs are fewer. They can’t be squandered.
So Heyward’s struggles in those situations will only come into focus more.
Don’t expect his offensive woes to keep him out of the lineup. His defensive value will still make him better than any alternative on the Cubs bench when the playoffs come around. Runs saved defensively count just the same as runs generated on offense.
But Heyward could continue to play himself into a situation where Cubs manager Joe Maddon may have to consider a pinch hitter when the team finds itself down late in playoff games.
In fairness, Heyward’s June has been better than the first two months of the season. He is hitting .257/.336/.386. But those numbers are still below his career averages of .265/.351/.422.
He still could easily climb out of this season-long slump.
It’s a credit to Heyward that he hasn’t taken his offensive struggles into the outfield. His accomplishments as an outfielder certainly impacted the high demand for his services this offseason.
Analytics quantify a player’s defensive value more than ever. Heyward is a beneficiary.
But the size of his contract suggests that he cannot be a one-way player. Hitting in an important spot in the lineup, ahead of sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, it’s important Heyward gets on base.
He hasn’t done so enough this season.
As the Cubs continue to win, destined for October, Heyward’s struggles won’t be reflected in the standings. Discussion about them won’t even matter.
Come the playoffs, though, there are fewer games and fewer at-bats. Each play means exponentially more.
And if he continues to swing the bat poorly, Heyward could end up the party pooper on Chicago’s North Side.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Talk baseball with Seth by following him on Twitter @SethGruen.
All stats are accurate through the completion of Thursday’s games.
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