Batting average is not an overvalued statistic. When you compare Ichiro Suzuki‘s 2004 season with Eddie Stanky’s 1950 season, it illustrates the importance of a player’s batting average when you evaluate him.
Suzuki batted .372 with a .414 on-base percentage and a .455 slugging average.
Stanky batted .300 with a .460 on-base average and a .412 slugging average.
I must point out that singles, not extra base hits, created Suzuki’s higher slugging average.
Suzuki hit 24 doubles, five triples and eight home runs. He hit 225 singles.
Stanky hit 25 doubles, five triples and eight home runs. He hit 120 singles.
Ichiro had 105 more singles than Stanky.
The difference in on-base percentage between the two came from the fact that Stanky walked 144 times and Ichiro walked 49 walks. Stanky had 95 more walks.
Adding Ichiro’s 225 singles and 49 walks results in his getting credit for reaching first base 274 times.
Adding Stanky’s 120 singles and 144 walks results in his getting credit for reaching first base 264 times.
He and Ichiro each reached first base almost the same number of times.
Now, with a runner in scoring position, Ichiro’s singles are much more valuable than Stanky’s walks. The single will almost always score a runner from third and usually score one from second.
Batting average measures the chances a batter will hit safely. It really is that simple.
In 2004, Ichiro had a 37.2 percent chance of getting a hit when charged with an official at-bat. In 1950, Stanky had a 30.0 percent chance of getting a hit when charged with an official at-bat.
Ichiro had 762 plate appearances with 262 hits. He had a 34.4 percent chance of getting a hit when he batted.
Stanky had 692 plate appearances with 158 hits. He had a 22.8 percent of hitting safely when he batted.
A single is more valuable than a walk. It makes little difference whether a batter singles or walks when the bases are empty. A single is often more productive when one or more runners are on base.
A batter who doesn’t draw many walks is criticized for not “working the pitcher.” Singles hitters who don’t walk a lot can still work pitchers by taking a few pitches before offering.
The game has changed. In the 21st century, starting pitchers are held to pitch counts, which strengthens the criticism that Ichiro doesn’t walk much.
When Stanky drew his 144 walks, “working the pitcher” was not important because it didn’t matter. Starting pitchers in 1950 were expected to finish what they started, and many did just that.
Let’s say that your team is trailing in the ninth inning by one run. The team is down to its final out with the number nine batter, Max Bishop, at the plate.
Bishop was an integral part of the 1929 world champion Philadelphia Athletics. He had a .398 on-base percentage, but batted only .232.
The chance of Bishop getting a hit to tie the game is 17.8 percent. The chance of Bishop walking and keeping the game alive for the next batter, Eddie Stanky, is 20.7 percent.
If Bishop walks, Stanky has a 22.8 percent chance of tying the game.
The chance of both Bishop and Stanky drawing walks is a little more than five percent.
Your team has a better chance in such a critical situation of tying the game with a batter that has a high batting average. On-base percentage is almost irrelevant.
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