David Price just became the highest-paid pitcher (by average annual value) in baseball history. Zack Greinke is about to join him in that stratosphere.
Jeff Samardzija isn’t in line for that type of $30 million-plus-per-season payday. But he might have already received an offer north of $100 million, per ESPN’s Jayson Stark:
Notice I said “might.” Stark’s tweet indicates Samardzija himself is the source of that $100 million tidbit. It could be true. It could also be a fairly transparent negotiation ploy. That’s CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa’s take. As he points out, “Agents lie all the time.” Gasp!
Either way, it’s worth asking: Will someone give Samardzija that kind of dough? And if so, who?
The first question is tricky. On the one hand, Samardzija is coming off a rough season with the Chicago White Sox that saw him lead the big leagues in hits (228) and earned runs (118) allowed and tie for the AL lead in home runs surrendered with 29. Not the way you draw up a contract year.
On the other hand, he played his home games at U.S. Cellular Field, a hitters’ park that ranked as the eighth-most home-run-happy yard in baseball, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic.
And he was backed by a White Sox defense that was the worst in either league, according to FanGraphs.
That doesn’t guarantee a bounce-back to Samardzija’s excellent 2014, when he posted a 2.99 ERA and 1.065 WHIP with 202 strikeouts in 219.2 innings for the Chicago Cubs and Oakland A’s. But it leaves the door open.
Then there’s the matter of his arm, which he hasn’t used as much as some other pitchers entering their age-31 seasons. He didn’t become a regular starter until 2012 and didn’t eclipse 200 innings until 2013. That could be attractive to clubs wary of paying a pitcher only to watch him break down, as ESPN’s Buster Olney posited:
Samardzija’s velocity also remained consistent last season, per FanGraphs. Many of the typical red flags that suggest a hurler in decline simply aren’t there.
Jordan Zimmermann, who is younger than Samardzija and has a longer track record as a top-shelf starter, got $110 million over five years from the Detroit Tigers. So $100 million over a similar time period for Samardzija feels like a stretch, given his 2015 struggles.
But it’s entirely possible the cat they call Shark could eclipse the five-year, $80 million deal MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes predicted and at least sniff nine-figure territory.
OK, so now to our second question: What team might be willing to pay so handsomely for Samardzija’s services? If he really does have a $100 million offer in hand, who could it be from?
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers are locked into a bidding war for Greinke, as USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale (among many others) reported.
The loser of that showdown could turn their attention, and checkbooks, to Samardzija. Both teams play in pitchers’ parks, which would fuel hopes of a resurgence.
The St. Louis Cardinals, surprise runners-up in the Price sweepstakes, also could make a move. And add the Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks to the list of teams that need pitching and should at least come around for some tire-kicking. The D-backs, remember, offered six years and $120 million to Johnny Cueto, which Cueto turned down.
The likeliest scenario, though, might be a reunion between Samardzija and the Cubs. Yours truly recently proposed an offseason plan wherein Chicago adds Samardzija and veteran John Lackey to round out its rotation.
The Cubs were connected to Price early, but with NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta backed by Jon Lester, they don’t need an ace. They need solid, high-upside supporting pieces, and that’s what Samardzija would provide.
Would Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein be willing to shell out $100 million to make it happen? Perhaps not. But he did give six years and $155 million to Lester last winter, so we know he’s not averse to spending when needed.
“We need quality pitching,” Epstein said, per Sports Illustrated. “I’m not going to rule anything out or anything in.”
And consider this, from CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine: “The Cubs are looking to add at least two starting pitchers to their rotation mix for 2016. Those additions will come through a possible combination of trades and the free-agent market. The rumblings for adding former Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija appear to be stronger now than any time in the recent past.”
That doesn’t guarantee he’ll be wearing Cubbie blue once more. And it certainly doesn’t mean he’ll automatically get that $100 million windfall.
If you’re the betting type, though, lay your dollars on Shark swimming back to the North Side. Then again, this stuff is always in motion—so make sure you don’t bet Price, Greinke or even Samardzija money.
All statistics and contract information current as of Dec. 2 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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