In the wake of Giancarlo Stanton becoming Major League Baseball’s first $300 million man, a question comes to mind.
Who’s next?
There’s no doubt baseball will get a second $300 million man and little doubt that he will come sooner rather than later. Probably within the next five years. Maybe even within the next three.
As for what makes a good candidate for a $300 million contract, let’s see here…
- Back in 2012, Maury Brown of Baseball Prospectus wrote that the ideal candidate for a $300 million contract was a player “who reaches the majors early, accrues service time quickly, and would reach arbitration and, subsequently, free agency at a young age.” Stanton’s contract proved this model was (PUN INCOMING) right on the money, so let’s stick with it.
- According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, nine of the 10 biggest pacts ever have gone to position players, so the next $300 million man will likely be a hitter. Also, Stanton is just the latest example that power is what teams want most in a position player.
- However, that the Los Angeles Dodgers reportedly offered Clayton Kershaw a $300 million contract in 2013 indicates we can’t rule out the idea of a $300 million pitcher completely.
- Based on recent deals signed by Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano, the max payout on the free-agent market is $240 million. But since their deals started in their age-32 and age-31 seasons, respectively, a younger stud free agent might be able to raise the bar.
- In light of the fact that Miguel Cabrera got an eight-year, $248 million extension for his age-33-40 seasons two years before he was due for free agency, the bar could be similarly raised for a younger stud veteran on the eve of free agency.
So, then, here’s what we’re looking for: young power hitters first and foremost, and then Kershaw-level young aces and young-ish veterans who could make a killing in extensions or on the free-agent market.
This only narrows things down so much. So let me narrow things down even further with a list of 10 players I have pegged as the most likely candidates to become baseball’s next $300 million man, including the likes of Bryce Harper and Yasiel Puig.
We’ll go in order from least likely to most likely, starting with…
10. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
The one guy George Springer resembles the most so far is none other than baseball’s first $300 million man. Check out his rookie year compared to Stanton’s rookie season:
It’s not just the numbers, mind you. Stanton and Springer are both fine athletes and extremely powerful hitters. And though Springer has a bad swing-and-miss habit, that affliction hasn’t stopped Stanton from becoming a great hitter.
Regarding Springer’s future, he’s not slated to hit free agency until after 2020. But if the Astros were to make like the Marlins and propose a mega-extension after Springer’s first year of eligibility for arbitration, something could get done after the 2017 season.
One complication, however, is that Springer is actually slightly older than Stanton by just under a month (they’re both 25). So while his rookie season was comparable to Stanton’s, it might represent Springer’s ceiling rather than his floor.
9. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
We didn’t get to see Matt Harvey in 2014 thanks to his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but he was as good as anybody with a 2.27 ERA and 6.16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 starts in 2013.
The fireballing right-hander is due to hit free agency after 2018. If the Mets choose to open extension talks with him ahead of time, it’s possible something will get done in 2016 or 2017. By then, Harvey joining Kershaw in the ranks of $30-million-per-year pitchers could be reasonable.
The trouble is that Harvey is already 25 years old. That’s where Kershaw was when he supposedly got a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Dodgers. By the time Harvey and the Mets need to get serious about a long-term deal, he’ll be in his late 20s and less of an ideal candidate for something as long as 10 years.
8. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
For a guy who’s considered by some to be a disappointment, Stephen Strasburg is on a hell of a three-year run. In 92 starts, he’s racked up a 3.10 ERA and the National League’s top strikeout rate (10.17).
Strasburg is due for free agency after his age-27 season in 2016. In light of the fact that this year’s market could give Max Scherzer close to $200 million off his age-29 season, it’s not unthinkable that Strasburg could get considerably more money over more years two seasons from now.
However, it’s worth noting that CC Sabathia could only get seven years coming off his own age-27 season in 2008. Since he doesn’t have Sabathia’s durability track record, Strasburg might not be able to do better.
7. Justin Upton, LF, Atlanta Braves
Justin Upton has had two very good seasons in a row, compiling an .826 OPS and clubbing 56 homers. If he has a truly exceptional campaign in his walk year in 2015—say, something like his 31-homer, 21-steal, .898 OPS season in 2011—he’ll go from being a big free-agent target to being easily the top player on the market.
Upton’s power and overall talent would be two main selling points. The other would be his youth, as he’ll only be off his age-27 season. That’s extremely young for a free agent and could be what nets him a contract long and large enough to eclipse $300 million.
It’s possible. But since the idea hinges on Upton having an especially huge walk year, it’s less than probable.
6. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Per FanGraphs WAR, no National League position player has been as good as Andrew McCutchen over the last three seasons. And that’s believable, as center fielders who can put up a .900-plus OPS and over 20 homers and 20 steals don’t grow on trees.
Now, McCutchen isn’t due for free agency until after 2018, and the Pirates wouldn’t seem likely to extend him ahead of time. But since FanGraphs’ Wendy Thurm’s local TV contract guide says they can look forward to a new TV deal after 2019, them locking up McCutchen for life isn’t too far-fetched.
A new 10-year deal signed in 2017 or 2018 and starting in 2019 would cover McCutchen‘s age-32-41 seasons and eclipse $300 million if the average annual value broke $30 million. Conveniently, the club’s new TV contract would arrive just a year later to help the Pirates pay it. So maybe, just maybe.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Paul Goldschmidt is a .302 hitter with a .946 OPS and 55 home runs over the last two seasons, and the Diamondbacks have him locked up for cheap through 2019. But while there’s no hurry to extend him further, it’s possible they will anyway.
The Diamondbacks are due for a new TV deal after 2015 that, according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, could be worth $90 million a year. They could use that to make like the Detroit Tigers did with Cabrera and hammer out a second extension for Goldschmidt a couple years before he hits free agency.
If so, a deal could go down in 2017. If said deal was to be a 10-year pact that covered Goldschmidt‘s age-32-41 seasons—the same age range covered by Pujols’ 10-year contract—starting in 2020 at a rate of $30 million per year, you’d get a $300 million agreement.
4. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
You know how awesome Mike Trout is, so let’s not bother getting into his performance numbers.
What’s more pressing is how he’s signed for six years through the 2020 season. If he gets to free agency, there might be more than a couple $300 million men already roaming the league.
But what if the Angels don’t let Trout get to free agency?
Locking him up could be a priority for the Angels when Trout is two seasons from free agency in 2018. It will also be after Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver’s contracts are off the books, which would help.
If the Angels were to move to make Trout an Angel for life, a 12-year contract starting in 2021 would cover his age-29 season through his age-40 season. And if he remains even remotely as talented as he is now, the total value surpassing $300 million would be a given.
3. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s possible we’ve already seen Yasiel Puig‘s best. But if we haven’t, it’s scary to think how good a guy with a career .305 average and .888 OPS before the age of 24 might be.
If Puig becomes the player he might be, come 2016 or 2017, the Dodgers will find themselves needing to think about extending him beyond 2018. If they wanted to make him a Dodger for life, they could offer a dozen years starting in Puig‘s age-28 season in 2019 at a rate north of $30 million per year.
Don’t rule it out. Puig is a guy with the right kind of talent and the right kind of youth and in the right kind of place for a $300 million contract.
2. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
Stanton isn’t the only homegrown product the Marlins want to lock up. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says they also want to extend Jose Fernandez if they can.
But from the sound of things, “if they can” is the key phrase there:
If extending Fernandez is indeed a long shot, then he’ll hit free agency after his age-25 season in 2018. That means he’d be on the open market at the same age Kershaw was when the Dodgers reportedly offered him $300 million.
And considering that he’s racked up a 2.25 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings through his first 36 starts, Fernandez could absolutely have Kershaw-like value at that point. If he does, maybe the only thing that could keep him from becoming baseball’s second $300 million man is a certain somebody beating him to the punch…
1. Bryce Harper, LF, Washington Nationals
Right now, we know Bryce Harper as a hitter with a career .272 average and .816 OPS who’s spent a good portion of his first three seasons on the disabled list. But we also know him as a mere 22-year-old who has the potential to become one of the game’s great power hitters.
If Harper realizes that potential, the Nationals will invariably find themselves pondering an extension for him before he hits free agency after his age-25 season in 2018. If they were to follow the Marlins’ lead of getting something done before Harper’s second year of arbitration-eligibility in 2017, he could absolutely at least match the length and value of Stanton’s deal.
Granted, Harper is represented by Scott Boras, who’s not known for being overly fond of extensions. But in Harper’s case, maybe Boras could make an exception to accommodate his client’s wishes.
As Harper put it to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post in 2012: “You look at Cal Ripken. You look at Derek Jeter. You look at all the greats that played for one team their whole career. I want to be like that. I’ve always wanted to be like that. I’ve always wanted to play with that same team.”
All told, here’s a guy who’s supremely talented, very young and potentially very willing to be signed long term before he hits free agency four years from now.
Of all the candidates to become baseball’s next $300 million, the smart money’s on Harper.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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