A little over a year removed from having Tommy John surgery, Cincinnati Reds RHP Edinson Volquez is set to make his season debut tomorrow night at home against the Colorado Rockies.
It’s like the Reds are getting a pitcher back without giving up anything.
But what type of pitcher are the Reds getting? Tommy John surgery is pretty common these days, but how do pitchers fare when they first come back from the surgery?
Let’s take a look at five pitchers who have recently come back from Tommy John surgery and how they fared in their first stint back in the big leagues. We will look at the win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, number of starts, IP/start, K/9, and the age when the pitcher had the surgery.
A.J. Burnett: 3.68 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20 starts, 6.2 IP/S, 8.3 K/9, 26 years old
Tim Hudson: 3.61 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, seven starts, 6.0 IP/S, 6.4 K/9, 33 years old
Chris Carpenter: 1.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, three starts, 4.7 IP/S, 3.8 K/9, 32 years old
Francisco Liriano: 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14 starts, 5.4 IP/S, 7.9 K/9, 24 years old
Josh Johnson: 3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 14 starts, 6.2 IP/S, 7.9 K/9, 23 years old
As you can see, those are some pretty respectable numbers. But let’s see how they compare to the last year that particular pitcher was healthy.
Burnett: 12-9, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29 starts, 6.9 IP/S, 8.7 K/9
Hudson: 11-7, 3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 22 starts. 6.4 IP/S, 5.4 K/9
Carpenter: 3.09, 1.07 WHIP, 32 starts, 6.9 IP/S, 7.5 K/9
Liriano: 11-3, 1.92 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 16 starts, 6.1 IP/S, 10.2 K/9
Johnson: 3.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24 starts, 6.0 IP/S, 7.6 K/9
Outside of Carpenter, who had an extremely small sample size, every pitcher’s ERA and WHIP increased in his first half-season back in the majors. Outside of Johnson, every pitcher on this list also saw his IP/S decrease.
Volquez is 27 years old, so he would be right in the middle of the pack in this group. There is no reason to expect that Volquez can’t make a full recovery from the surgery.
So looking at Volquez’s last full year in the majors, in which he had a 3.24 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and averaged six IP/S and 9.5 K/9, I think we can expect an ERA around 3.70 with a 1.43 WHIP, about 5.1 IP/S, and 8.2 K/9.
Those are still some pretty good numbers, and numbers the Reds will take as they make their run in the second half.
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