Given how the market in Major League Baseball works today, prospects have become more valuable than ever.
Teams are finding that it costs less to promote, say, a back-end starter who will only cost $500,000 in pre-arbitration years from the minors than to give $45-50 million to a mid-rotation pitcher like Ricky Nolasco or Matt Garza.
Because of this new market inefficiency, teams are less likely than ever to trade prospects they have multiple years of control over.
The biggest prospect traded so far this offseason is Matt Davidson, who went from Arizona to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for closer Addison Reed. I like Davidson as a third baseman with above-average power and contact issues, but he’s not a star.
It’s been hard sledding for teams trying to trade expensive veterans, even one as good as David Price, because teams don’t want to trade two or three top prospects and empty their farm system to end up in a situation like the one Toronto is in after going all-in last season.
However, don’t be surprised to see the trade market pick up later in the year. I would bet that there will be a lot of movement around the July trade deadline.
So assuming that trade winds do start swirling again, which prospects are most likely to find themselves on the move? Here are five names to watch.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.