The market for free-agent hitters thinned out quickly Monday when the Boston Red Sox reportedly agreed to sign Pablo Sandoval, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, as well as Hanley Ramirez, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.
With arguably the two best remaining free-agent bats now off the board, we should begin to see the market for secondary players—the guys who aren’t looking at a potential nine-figure payday—take shape.
It can be argued that some teams might have seen the Ramirez and Sandoval signings coming and decided to get ahead of the market. For example, the A’s snatched up Billy Butler last week for three years and $30 million, while the White Sox signed left-handed slugger Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million pact.
There’s still an intriguing crop of hitters available on the market, but with the winter meetings on the horizon, that might not be the case for much longer.
The market for pitching is a much different story, as class headliners Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are all waiting on each other to sign and establish a market rate for an ace. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the top relievers come off the board in the near future.
With all that said, here’s a look at free agents who could be the next to sign.
Chase Headley, 3B
Teams that missed out on Sandoval—including the Giants—and those that might have viewed Hanley Ramirez as an option at third base will now shift their attention to Chase Headley, the obvious beneficiary of Monday’s signings.
Headley has never been considered a potential near-$100 million free agent, but any team that signs him will be getting one of the more well-rounded players on the market.
By now, we all know that Headley isn’t going to be the guy that hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and 115 RBI with the Padres in 2012. Over the last two seasons, he’s batted .246/.338/.387 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI.
However, Headley’s career .347 on-base percentage and 10.3 percent walk rate highlight his ability to reach base at a favorable clip, and he still proved to be a slightly above-average player (103 wRC+) last season despite posting career worsts with a .243 batting average and .700 OPS.
Beyond that, FanGraphs recognized Headley as the top defensive third baseman in baseball last season, giving him the highest overall rating (22.8) thanks to an MLB-best 20.9 ultimate zone rating (UZR). More importantly, Headley also ranks first in both categories since the start of the 2012 season, with a 41.6 Def and 35.2 UZR.
One drawback with Headley is he’s entering his age-31 season and has seen his share of injuries in recent years. Specifically, thumb and back injuries limited him to 141 games in 2013, while leg and back issues resulted in 135 games played in 2014. At the same time, the fact that he played 161 games in both 2010 and 2012 could help ease some of the concerns regarding his durability.
As of now, there’s a relatively short list of teams reportedly in the market for Headley, but that’s sure to change in the wake of Sandoval’s signing. The Yankees are said to be interested in bringing him back next season, and the two sides have already had begun a dialogue, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com:
According to the source, a baseball executive who requested anonymity because he is not involved in the negotiations, doubts among the Yankees’ “baseball people” about the ability of [Alex] Rodriguez — who will not have played in a major league game in more than 18 months and will turn 40 on July 27 — to play third base regularly next season have made signing Headley a priority this winter.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports believes the Giants are “likely” to pursue Headley after failing to re-sign Sandoval.
Even if it’s just a bidding war between the Yankees and Giants, there’s reason to believe Headley is going to sign sooner rather than later.
Andrew Miller, LHP
Andrew Miller, 29, was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2014, posting a 2.02 ERA, 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.5 walks per nine while appearing in 73 games for the Red Sox and Orioles.
Now, he’s looking to get paid like one of the best relievers in baseball.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported on Nov. 13 that 22 teams had contacted Miller. Now, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports hears that Miller has multiple three-year offers on the table.
According to a report from Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (h/t MLB Trade Rumors‘ Steve Adams), Miller is looking for nothing less than a four-year contract that has “astounding” average annual value. For what it’s worth, Morosi believes that multiple teams extending Miller three-year offers means he’ll likely to end up signing a four-year pact.
Normally, giving a deal of that length to a non-closer can be risky, especially one coming off a career-best season like Miller, where subsequent regression seems inevitable. But as David Schoenfield of ESPN.com writes, the market price for a reliable late-inning arms isn’t getting any cheaper, meaning Miller, entering his age-30 season, could be well worth the investment:
Miller doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, so a three- or four-year contract should lock up his prime years. For those who don’t think teams should spend big money on a bullpen, just look at your 2014 World Series winners. The Giants had a veteran bullpen with Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez all making at least $4 million. The days of relying solely on a bargain-basement-priced bullpen might be over.
As for the market, Zach Duke has been the only notable left-hander to sign this offseason, inking a three-year, $15 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. And once Miller comes off the board, there won’t be many viable options:
However, Miller isn’t your ordinary left-handed reliever; his dominance against both right- and left-handed hitters makes him a hot commodity, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously heard that some teams are considering him as a closer.
“I think Andrew’s evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he’s a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over,” Mark Rodgers, Miller’s agent, said via Crasnick.
Miller’s price tag will be steep, but the fact that he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, thanks to a midseason trade to Boston, means he’ll likely have a variety of potential suitors, and I’d expect all those clubs to make him favorable offers.
Colby Rasmus, OF
Colby Rasmus enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2013, batting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 458 plate appearances. His two other full seasons with the Blue Jays have been a much different story, a story featuring .225-or-worse batting averages, sub-.290 on-base percentages and worsening strikeout rates.
“Last year at the end of the season I definitely didn’t think I’d be in this position right now,” Rasmus said via John Lott of the National Post. “I thought things were looking up and I definitely was excited and didn’t see it going this way. But it is what it is. Baseball’s a crazy game, and it just didn’t work out for me.”
However, there’s reason to believe the 28-year-old Rasmus might still have some good seasons ahead of him. The left-handed hitter should continue to offer his usual above-average power in the coming years, as he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who drives the ball to all fields with authority.
The only potential impediment to Rasmus’ power output is his health, as he’s spent time on the disabled list in three of the last four seasons.
Lastly, the center fielder’s defense is bound to improve compared to his subpar showing in 2014.
It’s difficult to predict how the market will treat Rasmus, arguably the top reclamation project in this year’s free-agent class, but there’s definitely going to be a market, and soon.
Rasmus isn’t in the same tier as Melky Cabrera or Nick Markakis, obviously, but there’s still something to be said for a younger player capable of hitting 20 home runs and holding down center field. While he doesn’t benefit from a positional standpoint with the Ramirez and Sandoval signings, Rasmus’ stock does receive a slight boost given the lack of remaining power hitters on the market.
While some teams might offer him a cheap multiyear deal, Rasmus’ age and untapped potential make him a strong candidate to sign a one-year contract, hoping that a bounce-back performance nets him a big payday next offseason.
For what it’s worth, Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors believes Rasmus will sign a one-year deal worth $12 million but “would not be surprised if he ultimately scores a three-year pact.”
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