The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ 2016 season is riding on Clayton Kershaw‘s back.
Literally.
The 28-year-old ace left-hander landed on the 15-day disabled list June 30 with “mild disc herniation,” per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. On Saturday, he suffered “a setback” during a bullpen session, per MLB.com’s Alex Putterman.
Then, on Wednesday, manager Dave Roberts dropped a bombshell.
“I think that with the way it flared up, it’s more of an indication that surgery is more of a possibility obviously with the way his back responded, but we’re still hopeful that he will be back,” Roberts said, per ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla. “When you’re talking about the back, that is always an option, but we’re certainly hopeful that Clayton will be back, absolutely.”
There are enough caveats and qualifiers in there for Dodgers fans to cling to hope. But the club’s skipper just uttered the word “surgery” in connection with the best pitcher on the planet.
That sound you hear is a lot of hearts rising into throats in Southern California. And until further notice, it should be the sound of the Dodgers slamming the brakes on their non-waiver trade-deadline plans.
First, let’s quickly recap what Kershaw was doing before his lower back betrayed him: The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner and 2014 NL MVP owned an MLB-leading 1.79 ERA with 145 strikeouts and just nine walks in 121 innings.
He hasn’t thrown a baseball that mattered since June 26, and his 5.5 WAR entering play Wednesday still paced the Senior Circuit.
The Dodgers have their flaws—on offense, at the back of the rotation—but as long as they had Kershaw, they had hope.
In fact, before Roberts uttered the dreaded S-word (no, not that one), ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported Los Angeles was preparing to go all-in on the trade market:
The Dodgers have the second-best farm system in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, and they could dip into it to add a front-line starter, bullpen reinforcements, an impact bat or all of the above.
Crasnick floated Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer, a power arm whom Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman knows from his time in Tampa Bay.
On a squad that features a healthy Kershaw, a move like that would make sense. As would acquiring a slugger like Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce to augment a lineup that is ninth in the NL in runs scored and tied for 10th in OPS.
Even after losing Wednesday to the Washington Nationals, 8-1, the Dodgers are in line for an NL wild-card slot at 53-43 and just 4.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
The Giants, who are battling injuries of their own, have lost five straight coming out of the All-Star break. There is a path for Los Angeles to reach the postseason.
But that’s in a world where Kershaw takes the ball every five days. At the moment, the Dodgers don’t know if they live in that world or when they’ll live in it again.
The Kershaw-less state the Dodgers rotation resides in is a bleak one.
Japanese import Kenta Maeda has been a stout No. 2, at least temporarily casting aside the injury concerns that followed him across the Pacific and allowed the Dodgers to ink him to an incentive-laden contract. And Brandon McCarthy has shown flashes since returning from Tommy John surgery July 3.
After that, it’s a grab bag of uncertainty and mediocrity.
Lefty Scott Kazmir logged seven strong innings in his most recent start Tuesday against the Washington Nationals, but his ERA has hovered above 4.00 all season. Rookie Julio Urias is bursting with raw talent, but the 19-year-old southpaw has yet to find a consistent groove at the big league level.
Bud Norris, whom Los Angeles acquired from the Atlanta Braves the same day Kershaw landed on the DL, is a fifth starter at best. Hyun-Jin Ryu is on the shelf with elbow discomfort, and Alex Wood is out after undergoing elbow surgery.
Until they know if Kershaw is in or out for 2016, the Dodgers should hold their trade assets close. That “big-game hunting” Crasnick alluded to must transition to a wait-in-the-bushes approach.
The ideal scenario would be Kershaw returning healthy before the Aug. 1 deadline, giving the Dodgers time to rekindle trade talks.
But if his status remains uncertain, or if he goes under the knife, there’s simply no point in the Dodgers mortgaging their young, cost-controlled talent.
Would replacing Kershaw with Archer (assuming the Rays are willing to move him) help L.A.’s chances of sneaking into the playoffs? Sure.
Once there, could it make a little noise with the help of existing stars like shortstop and NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Corey Seager? Perhaps.
But without Kershaw, there is no way this team makes a serious World Series run. Period.
Yes, Archer would be more than a rental, as he’s controlled through 2019. And there are other enticing non-rentals on the block. But why not wait and acquire one or more of them over the winter, when you’re not dealing from a position of desperation?
The Dodgers have had their share of early October exits in recent years. The goal for baseball’s biggest spenders is to break the franchise’s 27-year championship drought. Anything short of that will be a lukewarm letdown.
Friedman has exercised restraint since taking the reins in Los Angeles, adding big pieces but placing emphasis on bolstering the minor league ranks and avoiding shifting into panic mode.
If anything could change that, it’s losing Kershaw. But diving headlong into the trade waters would be a mistake. They’d be better off riding out 2016 and heading into 2017 with a hopefully healthy ace and all that minor league firepower waiting in the wings.
To restate it in stark terms: The Dodgers’ season is riding on Kershaw’s back. If he can’t carry the load, no one else can.
All statistics current as of July 20 and courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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