It’s not even officially winter yet and the MLB hot stove is already up and cooking, with a couple of big trades going down in mid-November.
Atlanta shipped slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons to the Los Angeles Angels Thursday, while the Boston Red Sox bolstered their bullpen by swapping several prospects for San Diego closer Craig Kimbrel. The Padres also traded Joaquin Benoit to Seattle, among other moves, making them one of the busiest teams thus far.
Now that a few big moves are on the ledger, the trade talks are ramping up and the rumors aren’t far behind. Let’s take a look at some of the buzz emanating from offseason discussions and see if we can’t figure out which way the trade winds are blowing.
Freddie Freeman
The Braves appear ready and willing to make the painful moves necessary to improve the long-term prospects of a club that won just 67 games in 2015. Moving the popular Simmons was a bold step. It will be interesting to see how fans react if the club trades away its heaviest hitter from this season, Freddie Freeman.
Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has some of the details on this trade rumor: “Officials from three different clubs told me that the Braves have indeed shopped first baseman Freddie Freeman, with one saying such a possibility was “the talk of the (Arizona) Fall League” among scouts about 10 days ago.”
Freeman bashed 18 home runs and 66 RBI in 2015, leading the light-hitting Braves in both categories. Although some of his numbers came down from the past two years as he battled injuries, Freeman is still likely to command excellent value with a light market for hard-hitting first baseman.
Bleacher Report’s Jacob Shafer thinks the Red Sox might be a good trade partner for Atlanta:
The Boston Red Sox, who are loaded with minor league talent, might be the best fit, especially if they can somehow dump Hanley Ramirez. New President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has a history of aggressive wheeling and dealing and has already moved to bring in Kimbrel from the San Diego Padres.
If the Red Sox were willing to send back a top prospect like infielder Yoan Moncada and/or one of their young, MLB-ready studs such as shortstop Xander Bogaerts or catcher Blake Swihart, Atlanta should pounce.
Rosenthal reports that an MLB official says the Braves are shopping “everyone owed money.” This would certainly include the star first baseman. Freeman is owed approximately $120 million in base salary through 2021, per Spotrac.
If Freeman goes, it will be a huge blow for fans. He’s a known commodity, and the Braves are going to be looking for prospects to rebuild the farm system; in other words, unknown commodities. Still, it’s short-term pain that could provide a path to long-term gain if Atlanta can finagle the right deal.
Jorge Soler, Javier Baez
Since 2016 really could be the Chicago Cubs’ year—they’re supremely young, supremely talented, have a great manager and got some vital postseason experience in 2015 after a 97-win regular season—fans must be wondering what the team might do to make good on all its promise.
Trading some of the scrappy young players in exchange for veteran pitching would be one way, assuming they can’t get the necessary talent in the free-agent market. The Cubs just don’t want to trade away the wrong people.
Rosenthal has more on which players they might be interested in trading: “The Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber, but will at least explore the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, sources say.”
Soler‘s ceiling is quite high, and Cubs fans might be sad to see his name in the rumor mill after he showed improvement in the second half of the season and fared quite well in the playoffs (.474 average, three home runs and five RBI in seven games).
Baseball Prospectus’ Isaac Bennett noted the future is still bright for the 23-year-old despite being something of a liability on defense:
Soler remains a tantalizing subject; monstrous power, exceptional arm strength, hints of effective plate-discipline. But it is those same tools that may mask a painful truth thus far in his young career: He has yet to harness his abilities into being a productive major-league contributor. Serious defensive deficiencies and an exploitable offensive hole must be improved upon if he hopes to maintain his current status as a core piece of this dynamic young team.
Plus, the Cubs are facing a potential shakeup with Dexter Fowler declining a qualifying offer. Kyle Schwarber is at least a lock to play, while Chris Coghlan is arbitration eligible. The Cubs might want to keep Soler planted in right field unless some team comes in with a killer offer that includes a No. 3 starter plus extras.
As for Baez, his departure would seem to be a bit less agonizing. The 22-year-old played in just 28 regular-season games last season, posting a solid .289/.325/.408 slash line. He boasts decent power but is a strikeout machine.
As a second baseman, he faces a road block to a starting spot at The Show with Addison Russell and Starlin Castro manning the middle infield. Castro had a down year in 2015, so it’s possible the Cubs might try to ship him instead, even though Baez might garner a better return.
“Baez would definitely bring more of a haul, and they have enough overall depth to gamble that he doesn’t turn into Gary Sheffield,” an AL scout said, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.
Either Baez or Castro would seem more likely to go than Soler, if only to remove the logjam in middle infield. Whomever is traded, the Cubs need to bring back a quality arm they can count on in the postseason.
Rays Relievers
So it appears power infielders and talented outfielders are on the market, while starting pitching is in high demand. What about teams looking for some help in the bullpen? Not every team can find a Kimbrel, even those that need help at more than just closer. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Tampa Bay Rays might be the team to talk to for good relief pitching, although it could take a very sweet offer:
Interest in back-end relievers RHP Brad Boxberger and LHP Jake McGee was predictably high, as it was at the July deadline, with the Astros and Tigers among the teams expressing interest.
The Rays don’t seem motivated to move one, seeing the benefits of the tandem that, at least for 2016, is still relatively inexpensive, with McGee due around $5 million via arbitration and Boxberger a pre-arb bargain of $530,000 or so. But that changes in 2017, when Boxberger becomes arb eligible and McGee gets a hefty raise in his last year before free agency.
Realistically, it will come down to the offer, and it’s an interesting conversation on which would bring more back. If the Rays are blown away, they could deal one now. If not, barring injury of course, the interest will be there in July, and again after this season.
Both Boxberger and McGee are in their athletic primes and coming off strong seasons. Boxberger saved 41 games, posted a 3.71 ERA and struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings. The southpaw McGee appeared in just 39 games, but posted a 2.41 ERA and .938 WHIP, the latter two numbers better than his career averages in those categories.
Topkin suggests the Rays don’t want to move one without finding a way to deal the other and hit restart, so it could be tough for teams looking to pry either pitcher away.
Of the two teams mentioned as expressing interest, Detroit might be the more desperate team and willing to pull off a deal. The Tigers bullpen ranked 27th in the league with a 4.38 ERA. Houston’s relievers managed a collective 3.27 ERA, good for sixth in the majors.
The Tigers also face the prospect of losing key reliever Joakim Soria—23 saves and a 2.85 ERA in 2015—to free agency, although Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press noted Wednesday that the Tigers met with Soria‘s agent and “both sides share a mutual interest in signing.”
If Soria walks, Detroit might be willing to make a big offer to the Rays, but it’s unclear if they have the right mix of prospects and/or position players. The Rays can dangle Boxberger and McGee all winter long, whetting the appetite for next season when teams might become more desperate to make something happen.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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