You get what you pay for. It’s a truism in life, but not necessarily in baseball.
Every season features at least a few low-budget Davids who rack up victories despite puny payrolls. Likewise, some deep-pocketed Goliaths invariably sink in the standings.
With most of the winter’s marquee free agents off the board and the gaudy checks written, we have a pretty clear idea of who’s spending what. We won’t know how it all plays out until, well, it all plays out. But we can make some educated guesses about which teams are most likely to get the maximum—and minimum—bang for their buck.
To be clear: The idea is to identify high rollers who could easily miss the postseason and maybe even log losing records as well as spendthrift organizations that look like legitimate October threats.
So a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank No. 1 in payroll and figure to make a strong push for another National League West crown, don’t make the cut. And neither do the Milwaukee Brewers, baseball’s smallest spenders and a virtual lock to finish at or near the bottom of the NL Central.
Payroll figures for 2016 remain in flux with arbitration cases pending, but we’re pulling the most recent numbers from Spotrac.com. You’ll also see projected win totals from FanGraphs, though we’re using them as a jumping-off point rather than a final arbiter. All other statistics, unless otherwise noted, come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.