The calendar has turned to March, meaning we’re inching ever closer to the onset of the 2015 MLB regular season.
Spring training is now in full swing for all 30 teams. Pitchers are throwing bullpens, and hitters are taking their hacks in the cage in preparation for the upcoming grind of a 162-game season. As if that weren’t enough, there’s a slate of roughly 30 spring games to be played as well.
General managers worked tediously this offseason to build complete rosters for such a grind, but not every team is poised for success in 2015. There are some that will disappoint.
The arduous journey has begun for every team in baseball, and while it’s hard to make predictions so early in such a long season, you will find a couple below.
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Full daily schedule is also available at MLB.com.
Most Improved Team: Chicago White Sox
There’s a legitimate argument that can be made for which team had the best winter.
The San Diego Padres revamped their offense and added a front-line starter to an already strong group. The Chicago Cubs added Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero, giving them a strong veteran presence on an otherwise young team. Even the Boston Red Sox can be considered major winners after signing two of the top hitters on the market and trading for Rick Porcello.
But the top spot goes to the Chicago White Sox. They were aggressive in filling needs, as ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark writes:
If you watched White Sox GM Rick Hahn at work this winter, you could almost see him checking off boxes on his offseason wish list: Top-of-the-rotation starter — Jeff Samardzija (check). Closer — David Robertson (check). Left fielder — Melky Cabrera (check). First baseman/DH to ease the load on Jose Abreu — Adam LaRoche (check). Left-handed reliever — Zach Duke (check). Super utility men — Emilio Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham (check). Now that the transaction dust has settled, this team is way better than the 89-loss outfit of 2014.
Those commitments were mostly large financial ones—aside from the deals for Bonifacio and Beckham, of course—and that seemingly left USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale in shock:
When assessing the woes of last season’s White Sox, it’s obvious to see why these moves were made. They ranked 28th in baseball in terms of offensive WAR (10.6), 25th in starter’s ERA (4.26), 28th in reliever’s ERA (4.38) and 28th in defensive rating (negative-48), per FanGraphs.
Cabrera and LaRoche certainly solve some of the offensive issues, as both are 20-homer threats who can bat in the middle of the order. Samardzija and Robertson, each one of the top pitchers in their respective roles last season, will patch up shotty units for manager Robin Ventura. Defensively, Cabrera and LaRoche are solid, if nothing else.
Ventura now has a deep rotation to work with. Headlined by Samardzija and perennial All-Star Chris Sale, the unit also features Jose Quintana, John Danks and possibly top prospect Carlos Rodon.
Add in the fact that youngsters like Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia and Tyler Flowers could still improve, and the White Sox are a team to watch in 2015 and beyond.
Hahn made moves to win now, but they also set him up for the future. No GM had a better offseason. Look for the White Sox to compete in the American League Central and possibly represent the division in the playoffs.
Prediction: White Sox win 91 games and win the AL Central.
Most Disappointing Team: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles won 96 games in 2014. It might be a struggle for them to even get to 86 in 2015.
The American League East champs lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in free agency, two major contributors to last year’s team. Right-handed power is hard to come by in today’s game, but Cruz was the best of them all in 2014, smacking 40 home runs to lead baseball.
Andrew Miller, one of the studs of the postseason for the Orioles, also left town during the offseason, signing with the New York Yankees. The importance of a dominant bullpen was highlighted by the Kansas City Royals in October, so it will be interesting to see how the team copes with the loss.
ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield defended Baltimore’s choices:
Inactivity isn’t always a bad thing just as activity doesn’t ensure improvement. What have the Orioles lost? They’ve lost some 2014 value: Cruz was worth 4.6 WAR, Markakis 2.7 WAR and Miller 1.0 WAR (with the Orioles). The general consensus, however, is that the Mariners overpaid for Cruz (four years, $57 million) and the Braves overpaid for Markakis (four years, $44 million). Miller was just a rental and was going to leave anyway. Cruz turns 35 on July 1 and Markakis is entering his age-31 season, had offseason surgery to repair a herniated disk in his neck and has a .371 slugging percentage over the past two seasons. It’s understandable that the Orioles didn’t want to commit nearly $100 million to those two guys.
At least there are options for the O’s. Dylan Bundy isn’t far from a major role on this team. The top prospect should be a starter in the future, but there’s nothing wrong with him settling into a late-inning role out of the pen in 2015. It should be enough to get his feet wet before a breakout season in 2016.
Kevin Gausman, another young arm, should find a permanent role in the rotation this season. He’s primed for a breakout himself. One can also assume that Ubaldo Jimenez will improve upon his disastrous 2014.
Baltimore had one of the best offenses in baseball in terms of WAR last season, per FanGraphs. Such noticeable losses put the pressure on Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis, three stars who either struggled or fell victim to injuries.
Davis hit 26 homers, but he slashed .196/.300/.404 after posting a line of .286/.370/.634 in the previous year. He doesn’t need to hit 53 bombs again, but he’ll have to up his average and on-base percentage.
For Wieters and Machado, it’s all about staying healthy. Machado told The Associated Press, via The Washington Times, that he’s ready to go: “I think everything has been going smooth, knock on wood. Everything’s been going good. I’ve just got to keep my strength up. I’ve got two brand new knees now, so it’s just time to go out there an play and keep do what I’ve been doing, stay on it.”
With a clean bill of health and a full season, Machado could hit 20-plus homers with a balanced slash line and even a Gold Glove to top it off. He’s a future stud barring trips to the disabled list.
The Orioles might be good, but they might be bad too. There are too many question marks surrounding the Orioles, and instead of putting a bunch of eggs in the metaphorical basket, it’s probably safest to bet low on the team.
Prediction: Orioles win 84 games and miss the playoffs.
Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn
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