The Boston Red Sox had to trade Kevin Youkilis. It simply had to be done.
Youkilis was sucking the life out of Boston’s lineup, as he was hitting just .233 with a .315 on-base percentage at the time he was traded, per Baseball-Reference.com. In addition to not providing much offense, he wasn’t giving them much defense when they played him at third base.
When the Red Sox played Youkilis at third, Will Middlebrooks had to be held out of the starting lineup. When they played Youkilis at first base, Adrian Gonzalez had to play right field. The playing time triangle between the three of them was an awkward situation that needed to be resolved, post haste.
The deed is done. The Red Sox traded Youkilis to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, thus ridding themselves of an aging veteran and a lineup clog.
Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk said it best: The Youkilis trade is a classic case of addition by subtraction. The Red Sox are a better team without him than they were with him.
Or so they hope. What we’re going to find out is whether or not they actually gained anything by subtracting Youkilis from their roster, or if their jettisoning of Youkilis was much ado about nothing.
The question now, as it always is, is what history can tell us about the kind of deal the Red Sox have just made. Do addition by subtraction trades actually work, or does the idea itself have no place in baseball?
Well, it just so happens that the Red Sox have tried a couple of these trades in their recent history. Let’s take a look at what their history can tell us.
Note: Special thanks to Baseball-Reference.com for the key stats.
The Manny Ramirez Trade, 2008
Manny Ramirez had wanted out of Boston on a couple different occasions before the 2008 season, but he finally forced the Red Sox’s hand in ’08. He was having a solid year offensively, but there was a lot of bad noise going on behind the scenes.
The Red Sox finally traded Manny on deadline day, sending him to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a three-team trade that netted the Red Sox former All-Star outfielder Jason Bay.
Manny, of course, went on to be a superstar for the Dodgers the rest of the way, but Bay wasn’t too shabby either. He hit .293 with nine home runs in 37 RBI in 49 games for the Red Sox down the stretch.
Manny played his last game for the Red Sox on July 30, at which point they were 61-48, a winning percentage of .560 and three games back in the AL East. They went 34-19 the rest of the way, a winning percentage of .642. They then went on to fall a game short of making it to the World Series, losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven games in the ALCS.
So that trade worked out, though it hardly qualifies as an addition by subtraction trade because of Bay’s contributions to Boston’s hot finish.
Verdict: Addition by subtraction worked
The Nomar Garciaparra Trade, 2004
Nomar Garciaparra was superstar and a fan favorite in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but his best days were well in the past by the time the 2004 season rolled around. His health was in decline, and his defense was a problem on a Red Sox team that had a big problem with defense in general.
He was also due to hit free agency after the season, which made trading him that much easier for Theo Epstein. He shipped Nomar off to the Chicago Cubs as part of a three-team trade that netted the Red Sox former Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera and first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, another defensive standout.
The Red Sox began August with a record of 56-46, a winning percentage of .549. They finished the year with a record of 42-18, a winning percentage of .700. They then went on to win the World Series.
This trade is a better example of an addition by subtraction trade than the Manny trade because, though he was injury-prone, the Red Sox did give up a .300 hitter when they dealt Nomar. Their defense got better, but their offense got worse.
The team itself, however, got a heck of a lot better.
Verdict: Addition by subtraction worked
Naturally, the Red Sox don’t have a monopoly on addition by subtraction deals. Such deals happen all the time, and there are plenty that have happened in recent MLB history that we can talk about.
Such as…
The Colby Rasmus Trade, 2011
With Colby Rasmus raking with the Toronto Blue Jays this season, it’s starting to look like the St. Louis Cardinals may have made a mistake when they traded him just before the deadline last season.
Not necessarily. The trade did net the Cardinals a valuable starting pitcher in Edwin Jackson, and they also got bullpen help in the form of Octavio Dotel and Mark Rzepcynski. It also allowed them to jettison a player who wasn’t really playing by Tony La Russa’s rules.
Rasmus played his last game for the Cardinals on July 26, when the Cardinals’ record stood at 55-48, giving them a mere .534 winning percentage. They finished 35-22, a .614 winning percentage.
Jackson posted a solid 3.58 ERA in 13 appearances for the Cardinals. Dotel had a 3.28 ERA in 29 appearances. Rzepcynski had a 3.97 ERA in 28 appearances. Jon Jay took over as the team’s everyday centerfielder and hit .277.
Oh, and the Cardinals went on to win the World Series. Not a bad trade in hindsight.
Verdict: It worked
The Jose Contreras Trade, 2004
This one is a little different, as it essentially involved two teams swapping bad pitchers and hoping for the best.
Jose Contreras was a prize acquisition when the New York Yankees signed him up before the 2003 season, but he didn’t pan out. He only pitched in 18 games (nine starts) in 2003, and he had a 5.64 ERA in 18 starts for the Yankees when they decided to deal him.
Brian Cashman dealt Contreras to the Chicago White Sox for Esteban Loaiza. He had finished second in the Cy Young voting just a year before, but he was struggling to the tune of a 4.86 ERA in 2004.
So this could be characterized as both teams executing an addition by subtraction trade. Unfortunately, the deal didn’t have an immediate payoff for either side.
Loaiza appeared in 10 games (six starts) for the Yankees and posted an ERA of 8.50. Contreras posted an ERA over 5.00 for the White Sox in 13 starts.
The White Sox started August with a 52-48 record (.520), and finished with a record of 31-31 (.500). They missed the playoffs.
The Yankees started August at 65-38 (.631), and finished 36-23 (.610). They were a win away from going to the World Series, but fell victim to Boston’s historic comeback in the ALCS. Loaiza took a loss in Game 5.
That was it for Loaiza in New York. Contreras, however, won 15 games for the White Sox in 2005, and he was a key player in their run to the World Series.
So in the end, this deal worked out for the White Sox. Though Contreras ended up being the pitcher the Yankees had envisioned when they signed him, losing him wasn’t a killer blow.
Verdict: Worked for one, didn’t hurt the other
Addition by subtraction trades don’t just happen during the season, you know. In fact, they have a greater tendency to happen during the offseason, and we’ve seen quite a few recently.
Let’s take a look…
The Carlos Zambrano Trade, 2012
There was no way Carlos Zambrano was going to open up the 2012 season with the Cubs. Not after the way the 2011 season ended.
Once new Cubs boss Theo Epstein, a man with plenty of experience making addition by subtraction trades, got settled in, he traded Zambrano to the Miami Marlins for Chris Volstad. Epstein agreed to pick up $15 million of the $18 million Zambrano was owed, meaning he was effectively giving Zambrano to the Marlins for pennies.
Zambrano currently has a 4.01 ERA through 14 starts for the Marlins, and Volstad is currently trying to prove his worth in Triple-A after struggling mightily in the early portion of the season. The Cubs are in last place in the NL Central, and the Marlins are in last place in the NL East.
The Cubs could certainly use Zambrano. But since they’re not going anywhere this season anyway, they don’t miss him.
Verdict: Push
A.J. Burnett Trade, 2012
A.J. Burnett went through a disastrous 2011 season for the Yankees, going 11-11 with an ERA over 5.00 in 32 starts. He gave up a career-high 31 home runs.
Just as Epstein basically gave away Zambrano, Cashman basically gave away Burnett when he traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for two minor leaguers in February.
It looked like Cashman had made a mistake earlier in the season when the Yankees rotation was struggling, but not so much now. New York’s rotation has come along, and the Yankees are currently sitting in first place in a very tough AL East.
Burnett, meanwhile has found new life with the Pirates, as he currently boasts an 8-2 record and an ERA in the low 3.00s.
Verdict: Push
Vernon Wells Trade, 2011
As soon as Vernon Wells signed a seven-year contract worth $126 million before the 2008 season, everyone knew the Toronto Blue Jays were making a mistake.
Except them, apparently.
The Jays eventually realized their mistake just a couple years later in early 2011, choosing to trade Wells and a good portion of his remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.
For some reason, the Jays then traded Napoli to the Texas Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco.
The Jays didn’t end up missing Wells in 2011, as he hit just .218 with a .660 OPS in his first season with the Angels. They did, however, end up missing Napoli, who hit .320 with 30 home runs for a Rangers team that went to the World Series.
Francisco posted a 3.55 ERA with 17 saves in 54 appearances for the Jays, who missed the playoffs.
Verdict: Good for Rangers, bad for Angels, bad for Jays
The Grand Conclusion
There are many more examples of addition by subtraction trades that we could talk about, but the ones I’ve picked out represent a good mix of circumstances and results. Collectively, they represent a good case study, so to speak.
From these examples, what we can determine is that the recent history of addition by subtraction trades led to somewhat mixed results, though some good things obviously happened for some of the teams doing the adding by way of subtracting.
The only team we looked at that really got burned was the Blue Jays after they dealt Napoli, but that was only because they traded Napoli when they should have held on to him.
Any idea why the teams executing these addition by subtraction trades managed to avoid getting burned?
Shoot, isn’t it obvious?
They didn’t get burned because they were giving up players that they could very much afford to part with. For the most part, we talked about good teams dealing away bad players, so it makes sense that they wouldn’t get burned by these deals. These are the kinds of deals GMs make when they have nothing to lose and something to gain.
In the end, it’s Baseball 101. You don’t trade players you need. That’s not addition by subtraction. That’s just plain subtraction.
So if you’re a GM looking to make an addition by subtraction deal, go right ahead and risk it. History tells us the odds are in your favor.
Now, subtraction by addition trades, on the other hand…
Um, never mind. That’s a headache for another day.
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