When the Boston Red Sox completed a trade with the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez in early December, the move was met with much fanfare.
As sports fans gradually transition from football mode into baseball mode, the excitement surrounding the A-Gone acquisition is sure to skyrocket heading into spring training.
While the Padres surprised the baseball world by competing for a playoff spot in 2010, they remain a small market team sitting far from the Northeast media machine.
But as Gonzalez dons a Red Sox uniform, he will officially be entering the big time and receiving the media attention that goes along with it.
No doubt the fantasy experts will be increasingly hyping Gonzalez too—and why shouldn’t they? He will be moving from the worst ballpark for hitters in all of baseball to Fenway Park, one of the best. He’ll also be leaving a lineup featuring Chris Denorfia, David Eckstein, Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick to join one featuring Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.
Yet Gonzalez is still a bit underrated in some fantasy circles, despite all the hype about him joining the Red Sox.
The numbers Gonzalez has put up outside of spacious Petco Park provide a sneak preview of what fantasy owners can expect. Extrapolating his road stats over the last four years to a full season, Gonzalez is averaging a .306 batting average, 45 HRs, 128 RBI and 112 runs. Look at only the last three years, and the numbers are even better.
Gonzalez is also only 28 years old, which means he has just entered his prime. While it’s true Gonzalez had minor offseason surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, the procedure did not prevent the Red Sox from dealing three strong prospects for him, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
Unless word spreads of any setbacks with Gonzalez’s shoulder, the move to Boston instantly vaults him ahead of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder in fantasy value among first basemen, because Gonzalez is the most likely of that group to pair a 40-HR season with a .300-plus batting average.
Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and perhaps Joey Votto are the only hitters in baseball more likely to reach those milestones than Gonzalez, and they’re the only first basemen who should be going ahead of Gonzalez in fantasy drafts.
Add it all together, and Adrian Gonzalez has the look of a mid-to-late first-round pick in 12-team fantasy leagues.
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