Heading into 2010 fantasy owners wanted to believe that the Chicago White Sox’ Gordon Beckham would mature into a must-use second base option.  He was coming off an impressive rookie season as a third baseman (.270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 58 R in 378 AB) with a line that certainly would play well at second base especially when projected over a full season.

Unfortunately a repeat performance was not in the cards as Beckham struggled:

444 At-Bats
.252 Batting Average (112 Hits)
9 Home Runs
49 RBI
58 Runs
4 Stolen Bases
.317 On-Base Percentage
.378 Slugging Percentage
.297 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There was no one problem that caused his struggles.  Instead, there are many things that we can point to that showed a general regression, leading to his sophomore slump.

First was his ability to make contact.  In his rookie year he posted a strikeout rate of 17.2 percent.  Last season that number rose to 20.7 percent.

Over his brief minor league career (just 233 AB) the 2008 first-round draft pick struck out just 33 times (14.16 percent).  Yes, it is a rather small sample size but when you couple it with his 2009 performance you get the feeling that he is significantly better than what he showed last season.  An improvement there would go a long way in him improving his average.

His power metrics also took a hit:

  • 2009: 43.0 percent fly-ball rate; 10.4 percent HR/FB
  • 2010: 37.0 percent fly-ball rate; 6.9 percent HR/FB

There certainly is reason to believe that there is a lot more power in his bat than he showed last season.  Prior to the 2009 season Baseball America, who ranked him as the White Sox’s No. 1 prospect, said:

“He doesn’t have a classic stroke but has strong forearms and quick wrists, generating impressive bat speed. Though he isn’t built like a power hitter, he centers the ball well and the ball jumps off his bat. He led the Cape Cod League with nine homers in 2007, suggesting that his power comes from more than a metal bat.”

That certainly brings hope that he can at least rediscover the power he showed in 2009 and maybe take a small step forward as well.  It wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him approach the 20 HR mark, given his history and what he showed at the major league level in 2009. 

In 2010 he spent the majority of his time hitting ninth (273 AB), which certainly makes it more difficult to both drive in and score runs.  Moving up in the order, which is a good possibility, will certainly help him improve on those numbers as well.

The bottom line with Beckham is that, despite his struggles in 2010, there are a lot of reasons to like his potential to improve significantly.  I wouldn’t draft him as my starting second baseman, but as a middle infielder or a depth option he’s a tremendous pick.  He’s not going to provide speed, so if that’s what you are looking for you should keep looking, but with power upside he’s going to have significant potential value.

I would consider him a fairly low-risk, high-reward player making him a great selection for 2011.

What are your thoughts on Beckham?  How good could he be in 2011?  Would you target him on draft day?

 

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