In the first half of the season, Corey Hart could do no wrong.  He was one of the biggest surprises in the league, hitting .288 with 21 HR and 65 RBI.  Owners who took the gamble on drafting him were on cloud nine…

Unfortunately, the euphoria did not last forever.

Hart’s production in the second half was much more inline with what we would have expected.  He hit .278 with 10 HR and 37 RBI.

Overall he posted a HR/FB of 16.7%.  Just compare that to his numbers the past few years:

  • 2006 – 12.2%
  • 2007 – 13.0%
  • 2008 – 9.9%
  • 2009 – 8.8%

Does he have the potential to hit 31 HR again?  Probably not, but there’s no reason to think that he can’t continue to be in the 24-26 HR range.  He’s done it before, and he certainly can do it again.

The rest of the numbers are extremely realistic, outside of maybe the runs scored (91) and RBI (102).  Obviously, with a decrease in home runs, the counting numbers are going to take a hit as well.

You also have to consider that the Brewers could look exceptionally differently come Opening Day 2011.  Will Prince Fielder remain in the lineup?  Where exactly does Hart fit into the picture?  Will he bat second?  Will he bat sixth?  It really is too early to tell.

This past season he hit all over the lineup, though the two biggest spots were second and sixth:

  • Second – 361 AB, .291, 13 HR, 62 RBI, 61 R
  • Sixth – 122 AB, .303, 15 HR, 31 RBI, 22 R

There are two overwhelming concerns in those number:

1)     In a little more then half a season hitting second, he had 62 RBI.  Is that really a number that we can expect to continue?  In that spot, the RBI just aren’t likely to be there at that type of rate.

2)     Batting sixth, he hit a home run once every 8.1 at bats.  Even with that type of production, he had just 31 RBI?  Really?  With that type of power and in that spot in the lineup, more production just has to be there.

You put them together and you get major concerns.  If he hits early in the lineup, the RBI likely won’t be there.  If he hits later in the order, can he really show the same power that he did in 2010?  It just seems like no matter the scenario, a regression is inevitable.

While Hart is going to be a usable option, for sure, don’t get too caught up in his hot streak and production.  There’s going to be a regression coming.

What are your thoughts on Hart?  Do you see him regressing in 2010?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:


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