It’s important to balance risk and upside when it comes to assembling a fantasy baseball roster, and one way to do that is by looking for signs of regression.

Production relative to players’ previous track records, second-half declines and telling advanced statistics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) can all help forecast player regression.

So who are the guys to avoid this year?

Ahead is a look at seven hitters, all of whom are currently being taken in the top 200 in drafts, who should be avoided at their current average draft positions, which come courtesy of FantasyPros.


Note: This article is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard five-by-five rotisserie scoring for hitters (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitchers (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Lineup construction assumes 22 active roster positions, consisting of one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.

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