Pitching depth is usually the key to success for fantasy baseball players, and the best way to compile depth is to take advantage of late-round sleepers with high upside.
Breakouts happen every year. Pinpointing the candidates isn’t always easy, as any number of factors can go into the success of young hurlers. Several young arms are on the cusp of reliability from a fantasy standpoint this season.
Coincidentally, all reside in the American League Central. That should create for some exciting matchups within the division in 2015. Take advantage of these names now before they begin to pick up steam early in the season.
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
Trevor Bauer has yet to put it all together in the bigs, owning a career 4.44 ERA and 7-12 record. He made 26 starts last season, but had problems limiting baserunners (1.379 WHIP). That certainly contributed to his 4.18 ERA, which would have been much higher had it not been for a successful two-month stretch in July and August.
Check out his numbers from those months:
It’s that 12-start stretch that should give potential owners hope. He struck out 68 in 70.2 innings, a reassuring sign for fantasy players. Even inconsistent starters can provide value if they strike out a ton of hitters, and that’s certainly something Bauer is capable of.
But a key for those pitchers is limiting walks, and that’s something Bauer has done in spring training. Spring stats are generally meaningless, but something can be said for a pitcher who has limited free passes. That’s how he came to his own defense on Twitter on Saturday:
If Bauer can make 30 starts and pitch around 180 innings in 2015, expect him to make meaningful fantasy contributions. He might win 10-12 games with an ERA under 4.00 and close to 160 strikeouts, but the potential is there for much more.
Take a chance on him late and watch him grown in 2015.
Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers
Shane Greene was never the highly touted prospect Bauer was, so his success with the New York Yankees last season came as a shock to many. He sat down 81 batters in 78.2 innings and had an ERA of 3.78, which was supported by a 3.73 FIP.
He was hurt by some bad luck. Opposing players had a .330 BABIP against him. With the league average last season at .296, per FanGraphs, it’s obvious that Greene’s numbers should have been even better.
He only won five games in 15 appearances (14 starts) for the Yankees. His new team, the Detroit Tigers, should provide him with several opportunities to win given their strong offense. Part of a three-way deal that netted New York Didi Gregorius from the Arizona Diamondbacks, Greene has the potential to end up being the most valuable player moved in the trade.
ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield pegs him as a dark-horse contender for the American League Cy Young as early as this season:
He’s the longest shot on the board. A marginal prospect entering 2014 — Baseball America rated him as the Yankees’ No. 16 prospect — injuries in the rotation gave Greene a chance, and he performed well. His fastball averaged 93 mph, his slider was a swing-and-miss offering and he showcased a good cutter. His walk rate was a little high, and Derek Jeter didn’t help his BABIP any, but if he improves his command and continues developing his changeup, breakout potential is there — and the Tigers may have stolen a good starter from the Yankees.
Fantasy owners don’t need Greene to emerge as a Cy Young contender. As long as he maintains his high strikeout rate and wins around 12 ballgames, he’ll have a home on plenty of rosters.
Should he break out as Schoenfield suggests he might, you might have yourself the steal of the draft.
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
By all accounts, Danny Duffy was the Kansas City Royals’ best starter in 2014. He posted a 2.55 ERA in 24 starts spanning 141.0 innings, making him arguably a more reliable option than James Shields for stretches of the season.
Many forget about his regular-season exploits, though. The team’s whirlwind of a playoff run pretty much erased what happened earlier in the season from memory. Duffy was not a key cog in the playoffs, making just three appearances (no starts) because of a ribcage injury.
Kansas City was still successful without their diminutive left-hander, but they need him to step up in 2015 with the offseason departure of Shields. One particular area where he needs to improve is his strikeout rate.
Last year’s mark may have just been a blip on the radar, writes Nando Di Fino of the New York Post:
“Duffy’s strikeout rate hit a career-low in 2014, with 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. But it was Duffy’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and he had a 10.5 K/9 in the minor leagues. History suggests the strikeouts will return.”
Duffy appears healthy now, and that’s important for the Royals. With 30 starts and roughly 180 innings under his belt during a full season, Duffy should strike out close to a batter per inning and win at least 12 games.
He doesn’t allow many baserunners (1.112 WHIP in 2014) and generally keeps the ball in the yard (12 home runs allowed in 2014), which makes him a very attractive fantasy option given the above predictions.
He’s a future ace. Wouldn’t it be nice to be the owner that grabbed him before his breakout campaign started?
Kenny DeJohn is a Breaking News Team Featured Columnist. Follow him on Twitter.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com