Welcome to MLB‘s summer silly season, when trade talk takes to the wind like hot-dog wrappers in a hurricane.

Over the next few weeks leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, you’ll read and hear countless rumors, whispers, unconfirmed reports and statements from people familiar with a team’s thinking.

A lot will shift as July unfolds. Injuries, hot streaks and cold spells will upend races, change clubs’ calculuses and sort the buyers from the sellers once and for all.

Based on what we know now, however, here’s a look at each contender’s most likely deadline deal. By that, we mean a plausible trade that fits the needs of the team in question and that it has the chips to pull off. If it’s tied to some credible chatter, all the better.

Almost assuredly, most of these trades won’t happen, because not even the love child of Nostradamus and Miss Cleo can see every swap coming. But it’s a fine starting point for educated speculation and discussion.

For our purposes, we’re labeling 18 teams contenders, in that all are above .500 at the break and within striking distance of a postseason berth. The New York Yankees, who sit on the bubble at 44-44, fell into the non-contender column, though that could easily change.

We’ll begin with the contender with the worst record and work our way up from there. Tap the clay off your cleats and dig in when ready.

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