While the 2016 MLB regular season isn’t yet one month old, it’s never too early to jump to conclusions about the action we’ve seen unfold before us.

Some teams, such as the Colorado Rockies, have enjoyed a hot start and exceeded expectations, while others, such as the Houston Astros, have struggled.

Can the Rockies sustain their hot start? Are the Astros really a non-contender? These are the questions we’re here to answer.

After crunching the numbers, assessing rosters and the landscapes around each team, we have a pretty good idea which clubs have a chance of contending and which are merely pretending to be contenders.

We’ll assign each of our legitimate contenders a percentage chance of making the postseason based on all those factors, with no team receiving anything higher than 75 percent. Why? Because there’s simply too much baseball left to be played—and too much time for injuries to flip everything upside down.

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