The American League wild-card is up for grabs with roughly 40 games to go. Which teams will break through this season?

It’s time to break down which teams on the bubble of the new five-team field will join the postseason party in October.

(Records Through Monday, 8/20)

 

Tampa Bay Rays (68-54)

The Rays are heavily reliant on strong starting pitching, always a good thing in the bat-heavy American League East. The return of Evan Longoria provides a major boost to a lineup that was middling for some time.

The team has gotten very hot at just the right time, having won eight of 10 and sweeping the Angels in four games in Anaheim. In fact, Tampa Bay is 20-9 against the American League West this year.

Staying strong within their division (they are 27-20 against the East) will be key down the stretch for the Rays.

Chances: 90%

 

Baltimore Orioles (66-56)

The Orioles have seemingly done it with smoke and mirrors this year. They’ve batted well under .250 as a team and their team ERA is well over 4.00, so what gives? A little Buck Showalter magic is what. Not to mention they are 12-0 in extra-inning games, aided by a magnificent bullpen.

Still, the key will be the starting pitching down the stretch. The likes of Wei-Yin Chen, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter doesn’t scare anyone in the AL East, but the trio will have to get the job done if the O’s are to break their 14-year postseason drought.

Chances: 70%

 

Oakland Athletics (65-56)

Another team with a poor offense that has seemingly done it with smoke and mirrors, the A’s feature a bevy of strong, young arms that are carrying Oakland.

Jarrod Parker has been a revelation, as has Tommy Milone. Will they hold up down the stretch? More likely, will they carry the team?

Oakland’s offense at times has been so bad that they are forced to win successive games 2-1 and 1-0, but lo and behold they’ve gotten it done (see: 4-game sweep of the Yankees in late July). Cue the Moneyball theme music and the 2002 comparisons.

Chances: 55%

 

Los Angeles Angels (62-60)

The most shocking stat in baseball, perhaps, is that the Angels feature the league’s worst ERA among starting pitchers in August.Jered Weaver was bombed by Tampa Bay when the team was swept in four games. Zack Greinke has been a major disappointment thus far.

Los Angeles has a poor bullpen, meaning it’s all on the offense and starting pitching, and neither has been getting it done. Mike Trout is a legitimate MVP candidate, but Mike Scoscia’s job could be in jeopardy if his team continues its free-fall. The team’s upcoming series in Boston will say a lot about its chances.

Chances: 45%

 

Boston Red Sox (59-63)

The Red Sox have the talent to make a playoff run, there’s no question about it. So why haven’t they?

Injuries to David Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks certainly haven’t helped, but the starting pitching has been a major disappointment. Only Clay Buchholz has been a stabilizing force in the rotation, turning his season around after a disastrous start. Jon Lester has been good of late, but Josh Beckett has been shoddy, and the rest of the rotation is patchwork at best.

The offense will have to carry the load in a major way down the stretch if the Red Sox are to reverse last year’s trend. Boston watched as a 9.5-game lead in the wild-card standings dissipated in September, allowing Tampa Bay to steal the final spot in the playoffs.

Chances: 20%

 

Seattle Mariners (59-64)

It’s almost safe to say that Felix Hernandez is the only reason the Mariners are on this list, but let’s give a little credit to Jason Vargas and Tom Wilhelmsen as well. Pitching is not the reason the Mariners struggle to win games. It’s an anemic offense.

Still, Seattle plays like Oakland—their games are close and they sometimes scratch out just enough offense to win—and they’ve gotten hot of late.

Seattle is well-buried as far as the division race is concerned, but if Hernandez, Vargas, and a few other names step it up down the stretch, you never know what might happen in the crazy Pacific Northwest.

Chances: 5%

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