Kuzul

This is a very close debate between to guys who should have big years. The question that will be answered is, who do I take first? Let’s establish that Street’s and Putz’s ADPs are very close to each other. Putz is going around the 145th pick or the 13th round. Street is going around the 151st pick or the 13th round. 

Looking at both these closers, it’s easy to see why they are going so close to each other.  Both have good K/9 rates and both can consistently close. It’s also worth noting that both Street and Putz have their perspective jobs with no other real competition for the role. 

Closer Report 2011 Projections (from The Closer Report 2011 Draft Kit)

Huston Street: Ranked No. 12 – Projections: 36 saves, 5 wins, 3.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 65 K
Colorado Rockies team SAVE PROJECTIONS: 46

J.J. Putz: Ranked No. 22 – Projections: 30 saves, 2.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 70 K
Arizona Diamondbacks team SAVE PROJECTIONS: 34

Huston Street has a clear advantage over Putz and for several reasons. First, he’s on a team poised for a run at the playoffs and the Rockies should present him with plenty of save opportunities. I project 46 save opportunities for the Rockies, with only 34 from the Diamondbacks. 

Arizona is in a rebuilding year and though they have a strong core of players, they will not win nearly as many games as the Rockies will leaving Putz at a disadvantage in the number of chances he has.

At 27, Street is in his prime. While he has been injury prone at time, he has always been consistent. I expect a better season than he had in 2009, where he saved 35 games. Putz, on the other hand, is 34 years old and while still extremely effective is also injury prone and no longer in his prime. 

When the 12th or 13th round comes around and both these guys are the board, there is no reason why you should consider taking Putz over Street. Granted, Putz will likely strike out more batters and even carry slightly better numbers, but Street is a 40-save candidate and there aren’t many of those out there in 2011. 

J.J. Putz ad Huston Street should eace have great seasons. However, when it comes to fantasy baseball, I want the 27-year-old closer with the winning team over the 34-year-old with the rebuilding team. 

By Todd Farino, The Closer Report

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2011 offers a surplus of value pick closers.  Here are ten closers you need to eye in your fantasy draft for the best value for your pick, in no particular order. ADP statistics provided by www.mockdraftcentral.com.

Craig Kimbrel, Atl – ADP: 282.  Kimbrel is going on average in the 24th round.  We are talking about the flamethrowing Atlanta Braves closer.  A Braves closer should never go that late in the draft.  Steal him in the 18th or 19th round and get your 30-plus saves.

Jason Motte, StL – ADP: N/A.  Ok, so Motte isn’t the St. Louis Cardinals’ closer yet.  I stress yet.  The Cardinals haven’t resigned Ryan Franklin beyond this year and even Dave Duncan knows that Motte is ready to close.  It’s just a matter of time before he takes over.  Use a late pick for Motte and you will be very happy.

Andrew Bailey, Oak – ADP: 146. Bailey is coming off a year of injuries and inconsistency.  His draft value hasn’t dropped as much as expected, but his value as the Oakland A’s closer makes him a better value then Mariano Rivera, who’s being drafted 80 picks earlier.  Get Bailey in the 12th round and you’ll be strong in your bullpen from that point on.

Matt Thornton, ChW – ADP: 273.  There is no guarantee that Thornton will hold the closer position all year with Chris Sale gunning for the job.  Still, Thornton is going in the 23rd round on average and that makes him a steal.  Not only for possible saves, but for the fact he is the closer for now and he gets mad strikeouts. Take Thornton a few rounds earlier to be safe, like the 17th or 18th.

Drew Storen, Was – ADP: 230.  Storen is looking at a great season.  With the Washington Nationals rebuilding, they should provide plenty of opportunity to get saves.  While there is plenty of risk with the young Nationals closer, he is more than capable of getting 25-30 saves and worth a pick in the 19th or 20th round.  Heck, take him in the 16th and you’ll be fine.

Joe Nathan, Min – ADP: 264.  Wow, how the mighty have fallen.  If you’ve given up on Mighty Joe Nathan, think again.  He should be ready to go for the start of the season and I do not see the Minnesota Twins handing the ball over to Matt Capps with Nathan ready.  Currently his ADP places him in the 22nd round.  If you pass on Nathan after the 15th round you are simply crazy.  Certainly monitor his status, but as long as everything is going well, Nathan will close for the Twins, even if it isn’t in early April.

J.J. Putz, Ari – ADP: 145.  Putz could be one of the best closers in 2011 for his draft value.  It depends on how the Arizona Diamondbacks perform, but they really can’t do worse than last season.  Putz is going in the 13th round and that is just about right.  There is no secret in his ability.  My recommendation is to get him there.

Chris Perez, Cle – ADP: 175.  Perez will be exciting to watch this season as he matures into an elite closer.  The Cleveland Indians will be a much better team in 2011 and Perez is a candidate to break 40 saves.  We saw him dominate late last season and I have no doubt it will carry over.  His ADP is putting him in the 15th round.  He would be a stellar 13th or 14th-round pick.

Brandon League, Sea – ADP: 491.  He is the Seattle Mariners’ closer and he’s barely getting drafted.  His ADP has him in round 41!  While he has consistency issues, League continues to mature year after year and, if given the closer job, he will lock it down.  David Aardsma likely won’t be ready to start the season and if League is pitching well, he will keep the job as the future closer for the Mariners.  If he’s there late in your 26 or 30-round draft, take him.

Jonathan Broxton, LaD – ADP: 243.  Last year’s No. 1 closer has fallen to the 21st round.  Am I drunk?  Broxton battled many problems last year, both physical and mental.  He will be the opening day closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers and will be fine.  If he’s still in your fantasy draft come the 15th round, you’d be crazy not to take him.  The Dodgers have new management, new attitude and a healthy closer ready to regain his dominance. 

BONUS!!!

Frank Francisco, Tor – ADP: 469.  We’ve all been talking about it.  The Toronto Blue Jays traded for Francisco for one reason: to close.  Yes, they have Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.  Neither are as good as Francisco.  He’s basically being disrespected by fantasy owners by getting drafted around the 469th pick.  Take him in round 20 and get your steal closer.

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By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

A better question is, does Joe Maddon believe in Kyle Farnsworth?  The way it is being played right now, Farnsworth was signed to replace Rafael Soriano as the closer for the Rays. In his career that has spanned six teams, seven times, Farnsworth has never been an opening day starter.  The most saves he has ever accrued in one season was 10 in 2005, his first stint with the Atlanta Braves.  Since then he hasn’t closed much at all and has racked up only seven saves. 

Let’s examine the choice.  Kyle Farnsworth is a flame thrower.  He has always been known for his fastball and slider, which are two pitchers that a closer should have.  Along with that he’s also been known for a high BB/9 rate and a not pleasant ERA.

Over the past two seasons, Farnsworth has added a new pitch to his arsenal, one he learned from Mariano Rivera.  The cutter, which he throws at around 90 MPH and compared to his 96 MPH fastball is deadly.  Since adding the cutter, he has had some growing pains, but he now throws it with great efficiency.  In 2009-2010 Farnsworth’s BB/9 fell to 2.91 with the addition of the cutter (career 3.88).  Also, in 2010 is BAA was below 2.30, a number he hadn’t seen since 2005.

So the Rays and particularly Joe Maddon are hoping that they signed the 34-year old veteran to close out games for the Rays and to stabilize the back-end of the bullpen.  Clearly Farnsworth has the stuff to close, but I worry if he can mentally and even emotionally handle the job.  Sure, it’s just three outs.  It’s just the hardest three outs in baseball.

I’ll stand on the sideline on Farnsworth, but I will say this.  Adding a third pitch and one he probably feels he has perfected changes allot for Farnsworth.  Sure he doesn’t have the control that Rivera has or even the consistency, but he does have other pitches he can throw and has proven that he can be relied on when it matters. 

Feel free to draft Farnsworth late, he will likely be there.  Consider J.P Howell as a back up, but be mindful that I don’t think the job is Farnsworth’s just yet.  He will have to prove himself in spring training and beat out other contenders if he hopes to keep the job as the Tampa Bay Rays closer.

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1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves – This guy is the right-handed version of Billy Wagner.  With a 98MPH fastball and a propensity to strikeout batters, Kimbrel has what it takes to close.  He’s on a great team that will provide him with plenty of save opportunities.  He also lacked any serious competition in the Braves bullpen, though Venters is slightly capable.   

2. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals – Last year I felt some heat with discussing this kid, but in the end I was absolutely right.  Drew Storen had solid rookie campaign and by the very end of the season he was the closer.  He will open the season as the Nationals closer and bring with him some experience.  While his start may be slow, he will finish very strong as he developed into a great closer.  If his slider or changeup develop into worthy pitches, watch out for Storen.  The Nationals don’t win many games and when they do win, the scores are very close.

3. Jonathan Broxton, LA Dodgers– He might be a surprise for people to see him on this list, but it’s actually a great pick.  Last year most owners left Broxton for dead and I put him here to remind fantasy managers with Broxton is capable of doing.  He was clearly hurt last year and frankly the whole Dodger team was in a funk.  This is a new year, new manager, and a fresh approach to the game.  I expect the Dodgers to play better and give Broxton more chances to save games.  If he stays healthy, he could save 49, 50 games.

4. Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians– Chris Perez finished strong in 2010 and will have a very impressive 2011.  He finished last season with 10 consecutive saves and posted a ERA of 1.71.  Perez will open the season as the Cleveland Indians closer.  He brings everything you want in a closer: strikeouts, youth, health, and improving team.  The Indians will provide Perez with plenty of save opportunities and that makes Perez a bona fide sleeper.

5. JJ Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks– J.J. Putz is back as a closer.  I admit I miss the days when Putz was a dominating closer.  At 34, Putz is in his waning years, but still has the stuff to close.  He had a great season with the White Sox last year, posting a 2.83 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 54 innings. He also managed to stay healthy.  Now Putz is pitching in the NL West as the Diamondbacks closer.  Arizona was 12thin save chances last year with 59.  They don’t win often and I don’t expect much winning.  However, I see 30 plus saves that can go to Putz.

6. Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays– Again, I’m not Nostradamus, but drafting Francisco late would make a great investor for the possible closer of the Blue Jays.  Signing Francisco wouldn’t be as big of a deal, but they traded for the former Rangers closer.  Francisco had a great season in 2010 and is poised to regain a closer job.  The only true closer in his way is Octavio Dotel and the chances of him getting injured or booted from the job is high enough to warrant Francisco on your roster.  He will likely have the job either by the start of the season or at some point in the first half. 

7. Brandon League, Seattle Mariners – Brandon League has a better slider than K-Rod did as a member of the LA Angels, FACT.  League should open the season as the closer for the Mariners with David Aardsmastill recovering from hip surgery, and it will be the dawning of a new elite closer.  League remained in the shadows with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he has put it together with the Mariners.  While he will have consistency issues by missing location and walking batters, for the most part he is a lights out pitcher.  Assuming Aardsma doesn’t interfere with League’s work, I expect a big season for him.  There are good odds he will be available late in the draft and a great pick up after round 18.  If you draft Aardsma, please draft League. 

8. Andrew Bailey, Oakland As  – 2010 was a tough year for Andrew Bailey.  He suffered multiple injuries and though he put up good numbers, he wasn’t nearly as good as he could have been.  Bailey finished with 25 saves, a 1.47 ERA and 42 Ks.  During his phenomenal rookie season, Bailey had a K/9 rate of 9.82 in 2009 and it dropped to 7.71 in 2010.  I firmly believe that drop was tied to his injuries and his K/9 will rise back near or above 9.0 in 2011.  I also think that Bailey can stay healthy and save 38-40 games for the Oakland As.  He should be available around round 15 -18.  That is a steal for this sleeper closer.   

9. Jason Motte, St Louis Cardinals– 2010 was a transforming season for Motte.  He went from a failed prospect to a future closer.  He had one of the best years for all Cardinal relievers and even had a better year than closer Ryan Franklin.  While Franklin will be the opening day closer for the Cardinals, I expect Jason Motte to take over by May. 

The Cardinals have no interest in resigning Franklin and feel that Motte is ready.  He suffered an injury in 2010, but still put up 54 Ks in 52 innings and posted a 2.24 ERA.  Even more impressive was his WHIP of 1.13.  When Motte takes over the closer job that he has been groomed for, he will dominate and join the crew of new young up and coming elite closers.  Just has to get that pesky Ryan Franklin out of the way.

10. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox– A pitcher with movement, speed and location is made to be a closer.  Chris Sale has a 96 MPH fastball and a sinking curveball.  He can also through into the game a 92 MPH cutter.  We got a small taste of Sale last season, while in 23.2 inning he struck out 32 batters and posted a 1.93 ERA.  Right now Guillen has Matt Thornton slated as the closer, but Guillen doesn’t want it that way.  He wants to use Thornton against late inning lefties or for the eighth inning.  As soon as Sale can show he can close, I think he’ll get the job.  That could be opening day.  once he gets the job, he will be a grade A closer.  Expect a ERA around 3.00, but high strikeouts and plenty of saves.  All depends on when he gets the job.

Almost made the list:

Alberto Arias, Houston Astros– I just don’t trust Lyon and Fulchino.  I expect Arias to get some looks at being closer.

Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels – He’s backing up Fernando Rodney and has the best arm in that bullpen.

Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles – He is backing up Kevin Gregg and looked lights out at the end of 2010.

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

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By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

What does the future hold for arguably the greatest closer of all time? 

By the end of the the next season, Mariano Rivera  will be the ripe old age of 42.  For the first time in his career, Rivera started to show his age. 

In 2010, Rivera battled both an oblique injury and inflammation in his right knee.  While Rivera was able to pitch through the injuries, it eventually took it’s toll on the Yankee closer. 

He finished September with a 4.76 ERA and a WHIP of 1.24.  Even in August he showed signs of breaking down with a WHIP of 1.22, but luckily his ERA was only 2.00 for that month.  To put it all into context, Rivera’s ERA going into August was 0.93. 

In my mind and most likely many others, Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time.  He has one of the most mechanically consistent deliveries, which is the secret to his success.  However, when the body starts breaking down or is injured that will effect a pitchers mechanics.  If Rivera loses that consistency, he will get hit more and blow more saves.

For that reason, the Yankees brought in Rafael Soriano.  We heard Yankees GM Brian Cashman commenting that he didn’t want to pay closer money for a setup man, but Soriano may just not be a setup man.  In fact, Soriano is insurance for a pitcher who can fade at anytime without much warning. To understand Mariano Rivera’s effectiveness throughout his career and to understand why there is so much concern you have to examine how he does it. 

Mariano Rivera has one amazing pitch, the cutter. 

He throws it with extreme precision because his mechanics are flawless and never change.  Mechanics will flaw other pitchers and lead to big hits.  If Rivera makes a mistake with his cutter, it will get crushed. 

At 42, Rivera is beyond the normal years of an outstanding pitcher and now must rely on his veteran savvy and experience to continue to dominate hitters.  If he is unable to do that, he will find himself on the DL watching Rafael Soriano closing out games for the Yankees.

I’ve projected that Rivera will get 30 saves this year, which is three less then last season.  The reasons for the low number of saves are simple. 

First off, the Yankees just don’t produce that many save opportunities.  In 2010, the Yankees were 18th among all MLB teams in save opportunities at 57.  Even that number is skewed because that includes relievers blowing leads in the innings before the ninth. 

In total team saves, the Yankees also were ranked 18th.  So I expect a lack of save chances compared to teams with lesser offenses or weaker starting pitching.  It;s the impact of being a closer for a great team.

Secondly, I expect Rivera to get more rest.  He will give up the ball to Soriano more often then he has in the past in order to keep him healthy.  He also may have a stint on the DL.  I project Soriano to pick up at least 11 saves, but that is on the assumption that Rivera is healthy most of the season.   

If you draft Rivera, I strongly recommend you draft Soriano.  It might seem crazy to think you have to back up Rivera, but it’s just good common sense.

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By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Well, here comes Drew Storen. 

Last February, I wrote about Storen and told my readers that he would eventually get called up, but wouldn’t be the most effective pitcher in his rookie season.  In 2010, Storen put up solid numbers with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. 

By the end of the season, he was closing for the Nationals and saved five games in seven chances. 

Clearly those weren’t the numbers expected by those who drafted him, but it was exactly what I expected.  Storen still had to mature as a major league closer even though he was one on the college level.  I also felt that just having a terrific curveball and fastball weren’t enough to close out games. 

He worked in his slider 28 percent of the time and has yet to gain confidence in his changeup. Once he develops that pitch, it will give him a second devastating out pitch along with his slider. 

I don’t like the idea of a closer using a curveball in the ninth inning.  Curveballs are in general inconsistent, can hang and are relatively unreliable as strikes.  Besides, hitters in the ninth aren’t looking for them and likely won’t swing unless they have too. 

Plus, you can’t throw nine or 10 straight curveballs.  Having a changeup that is good would make all the difference for Storen and will likely make his curveball more useful.  

With a third pitch in his arsenal and hopefully a fourth one down the road, Storen should continue to develop into an elite closer and by seasons end that will show.  I have Drew Storen ranked 19th on my 2011 Draft Kit with 33 saves. 

If he was on a better team, he could be capable of saving 38-40 games.

Beware that Storen will still face growing pains and have some moments during the season.  Don’t worry, when it’s all done and said the Nationals closer will put up worthy numbers. 

Draft him with confidence.

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Billy Wagner retired after the 2010 season, and what a shame.  He arguably had one of the finest years of his career and now he wrapped up to spend more time with his family.  God bless you, Billy. 

Now the Atlanta Braves must move on and they have to find a new closer.  While the Braves have a fine bullpen and a few good candidates for the job, Craig Kimbrel seems to be the favorite.  And the young flamethrower should be. 

He throws up to 98 mph and has a nice slider to back it up.  He is a right-handed version of Billy Wagner, only better.  Last season in 20.2 innings of play, Kimbrel struck out 40 batters and had an insane WHIP/ERA of 1.65. 

When the Braves open camp, it will be Kimbrel’s job to lose.  Other pitchers who could take the job if he falters are Jon Venters, Goerge Sherill or Peter Moylan.  None of those are exciting options, but Venters is my favorite.

I like Kimbrel allot and he will be an exciting closer to watch in 2011.  At 22, he will have some ups and downs, but in the end he will put up very good numbers and develop into a dominating closer.  You can likely draft him late, but I wouldn’t wait too late to get him.

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