Author Archive

16
Jun/10

The Fantasy Fix’s AA Farm Report: Eastern, Southern, and Texas Leagues

by under MLB
Key player notes from AA’s Eastern, Southern, and Texas Leagues. The latest on phenoms like Domonic Brown, Simon Castro, and many more. Who’s moving on up and who’s failing to distinguish themselves?
 
 

POSITION PLAYERS

Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia AA —.313, 10 HR 37 RBI  

The 6′ 5″ phenom has all the tools. In his first full season of Eastern League ball, Brown is making mince meat of opposing pitching. His power stroke continues to develop, with 27 XBH and a .562 SLG percentage. He’s shown his patience and plate discipline drawing 25 BB in 201 plate appearances. He stole 23 bases between A & AA in 2009, and has swiped 10 bags in 15 attempts in 2010. Left handed pitching has not altered his approach, as he’s hitting them to the tune of .314 in 51 AB. On almost any other team, especially one with question marks in the outfield, he’d already be in The Show, but don’t count on the Phills replacing Raul Ibanez any time soon.

Dee Gordon, SS, L.A. Dodgers AA —.283, 2 HR, 18 RBI  

Speed, speed, and more speed. After stealing 73 bases in the Midwest League (A) last season, Gordon hasn’t lost stride in ’10. He’s already notched 25 SB in 58 games, but has been caught 10 times. On the downside, he’s not drawing enough walks for a lead-off man, just 12 (.329 OBP). With his wheels, any BB can turn into a triple. Weighing in at only 150 pounds, there’s not much pop there yet, but he has knocked in seven runs in his last 10 games. Gordon, a lefty hitter, is batting just .185 in 81 at bats against LHP. Overall, he’s slowed down considerably since a .345 April.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee AA —.285, 5 HR, 32 RBI  

The 16th pick in 2008 has been a gap hitting machine. In addition to his five jacks, Lawrie has 15 doubles and nine triples. He had 18 doubles and six triples in all of 2009 (424 AB). He’s raising his level as the summer heats up, hitting .362 in June with 17 knocks in his last ten games. In 66 at bats with RISP, he’s hitting .333. If his triples total is any indication, he likes to run —12 stolen bases as well. Lawrie’s 16:49 BB to K ratio against RHP, however,  is worrisome.

Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs AA —.229, 1 HR, 10 RBI  

The promotion to AA has not been particularly kind to 2007’s third overall selection. Vitters hit .291 in 110 AB in the Florida State League, but has hit a meager .229 in 96 AB in the Southern League. He’s drawn three walks and is slugging .302. Patience has been a major obstacle for Vitters, failing to crack the 13 walk plateau in his first three minor league seasons. Looking at it from that perspective, his combined BB total of 11 walks this year is actually encouraging. Seven of his 22 hits at AA have come with RISP (.304).

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle AA —.251, 1 HR, 19 RBI  

Ackley’s stat line may not blow your socks off, but after hitting .147 during April in his first month of pro ball, his numbers are on the incline. He hit .303 in May and .344 in the first half of June. His eye at the plate has been remarkable, drawing 43 walks —nearly matching his 49 hits. So despite his struggles, he has not lost the plot or pressed the issue. Ackley will make an ideal number two hitter, but don’t expect big HR totals. 13 of his hits are doubles, using both gaps to his advantage.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City AA —.339, 14 HR, 54 RBI  

Moustakas has been a dynamic run producer in the Texas League. He’s averaging 1.2 RBI per game, thanks in large part to a .429 BA with RISP (24 hits in 56 AB). Eleven of his 14 jacks have come with runners on base. His freakish numbers don’t end there. He has a .416 OBP and .678 SLG. Yes, that’s a 1.094 OPS. After a .393 May, he’s at a pedestrian .250 in June. Still, in 12 June games he’s brought in 13 runs. Despite his relative domination, Moustakas will not see major league action in 2010.

Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego AA —.274, 1 HR, 12 RBI  

Another BB machine. In 28 games and 95 plate appearances, Forsythe has walked 24 times. Much like Ackley, his BB total almost matches his hit total of 26. This is not foreign territory for Forsythe, who drew 102 walks between A & AA in ’09. He missed almost the entire month of May with a broken hand, and is still working to get his stroke back. Forsythe is a definite call up option for the Padres, who could sorely use his polished bat.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland AA Line —.292, 5 HR, 23 RBI  

After hitting 22 HR with 92 RBI in combined action last season, Chisenhall has found his power stroke in ’10. He hit just a single homer with 9 RBI in his first 126 AB, but has quickly jacked four homers and knocked in 14 in 42 June at bats. His double total of three is weak.

 

PITCHERS

Tim Alderson, SP, Pittsburgh AA —5-2, 4.29 ERA, 40 K  

The 6′ 6″ right hander’s performance was underwhelming in 2009, and the same can be said thus far in 2010. He closed ’09 with a 10-3 mark, but allowed 146 hits in 137 1/3 innings, and struck out only 84. In 65 innings in ’10, he’s given up 73 hits and has struck out 40. His GO/AO ratio is an improved 1.43, but opposing batters are seeing him too well, hitting .292. His last four starts have been extremely sharp: 25 innings, 20 hits and four ER. The buccos just called up Brad Lincoln, so maybe they’ll opt for a full bore youth movement. Alderson is just 21, however, and likely needs more seasoning.

Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota AA —3-2, 3.65 ERA, 31 K  

The former Missouri Tiger was absolutely rolling and appeared on the fast track to the bigs. Gibson was 3-0 in May with a 1.37 ERA, and getting a sick 3.23 GO/AO. Queue the reality check. In his last two outings Gibson has gone 10 2/3 innings, allowing 15 hits and 11 ER. In his latest start on June 11, he recorded just three ground-outs on balls put in play (0.38 ratio). A tight slider is his ground ball pitch.

Jake McGee, SP, Tampa Bay AA —2-4, 3.65 ERA, 51 K  

The Rays have brought McGee along slowly following Tommy John surgery. His May 28 start was a turning point: seven innings, the deepest he’s gone into a game this season, giving up five hits and zero ER, walking one, and striking out 11. He’s allowed only one ER in his last four starts, spanning 23 2/3 innings. McGee has coughed up only two HR in 49 1/3 this season. He’s a year away from contributing at the major league level, but even then his path is firmly blockaded.

Simon Castro, SP, Padres AA —4-2, 2.48 ERA, 52 K

Squaring up Castro’s pitches has been an immensely arduous task. The Texas League is hitting a mere .197 against him. Righties are having an even tougher time at .164. After a 0.81 GO/AO ratio in ’09, he’s lived on the ground in ’10 with a 1.69 ratio. Only three balls have left the park in 65 1/3 innings. Castro possesses a ‘swinging gate’ motion, which can definitely disrupt a hitter’s timing. If the Padres suffer an injury in the rotation, he’d get the first call.

Martin Perez, SP, Texas AA — 2-3, 5.32 ERA, 47 K  

The 19 year old Perez has turned heads in the Rangers system, but is currently suffering through the growing pains. His WHIP is far too high at 1.69. He walked just 38 in 114 2/3 innings in AA last season, but has already given out 27 free passes in 45 2/3 innings this year. His strikeout and ground ball (1.47) rates show the promise of what lies ahead. The latest rumor has the Rangers, of all teams, interested in Roy Oswalt. If so, it could very well take an arm like Perez to acquire him.

Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore AA —6-3, 2.84 ERA, 55 K  

The O’s are a pitiful bunch right now, but they sure have a plethora of young pitching. Britton went 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA during the month of May, with a (don’t adjust your monitor) 4.27 GO/AO ratio. He allowed 27 hits in 34 2/3 innings, K’ing 24. He’s come out on top in both of his June starts as well, allowing one run in 13 1/3. Britton’s ground ball success is not an aberration: In 147 1/3 innings of A ball in 2008 he finished with 2.81 GO/AO, and in 140 innings of Advanced A his ratio was 3.38. Don’t panic Oriole fans, he’s not related to former Oriole Chris Britton.

 

NOTES

Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Detroit —Ramirez was promoted to AAA on June 8. His immense power, 15 HR in 54 games, got him the call. Not his .243 BA or 82 K’s in 210 AB.

Kyle Russell, OF, L.A. Dodgers —Russell got the promotion to AA after tearing through the California League, hitting .354 with 16 HR and 53 RBI in 53 games. His OPS was a 1.140. It’s safe to say the soon to be 24 year old warranted an upgrade in competition.

Phillippe Aumont, SP, Philadelphia —After getting lit up in 11 starts at AA, Aumont was demoted to the Florida State League. He was 1-6 with a 7.43 ERA, and allowed 38 BB in 49 2/3 innings. In his first A ball appearance he went 2/3 of an inning, giving up three hits and five runs, while walking four in the process. There is much work to be done.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland —Weeks has been out since May 6 with a hip injury. He was hitting .304 with two HR, three triples, seven doubles and 13 RBI prior to being disabled.

We’d love to hear your thoughts on AA ball. Hit us up on Twitter.
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15
Jun/10

The Fantasy Fix’s Week 11 Two-Start Pitchers & Stephen Strasburg

by under MLB

Fantasy Baseball’s Pitching Line of the Week:

Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS)  7 IP, 4H, 2R, 0 BB, 14 K, W

The long awaited Major League debut of Stephen Strasburg is officially over. The dust has settled, but some fans have yet to pick their chins off of the ground from the amazement that was a dominating fourteen strikeout performance.

Strasburg schooled the Pirates with remote like control of his blazing fastball, changeup and a curveball that had the Bucs’ knees bucklin’. What may have been more impressive was the velocity on his pitches as he progressed into the later innings, it never changed.

The only runs Stephen surrendered came on a two-run home run by Delwyn Young in the top of the fourth inning for Pittsburgh that also scored Neil Walker. Strasburg was awarded the National League Player of the Week award in his first full week in the Major Leagues.

He started two games, went 2-0, pitched 12.1 innings while posting a 2.19 ERA and striking out 22 batters. Good luck trying to acquire this guy in most fantasy baseball formats. He is currently owned in 92% of Y! Leagues. I wonder what the fools in the other 8% of Y! leagues are waiting for?

The “Double Dipper ” is a starting pitcher who will get two starts in the same week. Each Sunday we will preview top three options in each league and highlight streaming options for players owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.

Top 3 NL Double Dippers:

Roy Halladay/PHI (@NYY, vs. MIN): He starts regardless of match-ups.
Josh Johnson/FLA (vs. TEX, vs. TB): 1 ER allowed in last five starts. Insanity.
Adam Wainwright/STL (@SEA, @OAK): 8.71 K/9, Ludicrous Ratios.

Top 3 AL Double Dippers:

David Price/TB (@ATL, @FLA): 1 ER in last two Starts. LOB% 81.3
Clay Bucholz/BOS (vs. ARI, vs. LAD): two Starts @Home. 3 ER in last three. Breakout.
CJ Wilson/TEX (@FLA, @HOU): 2-0 in last two. .226 BAA.

Warning: Streaming can be lethal. The following are owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.

Carl Pavano/MIN (@NYM, vs. SEA): Solid ERA & WHIP. 3.69 K:BB
Justin Masterson/CLE (vs. NYM, @PIT): 2-0 in last three including two-hitting the BoSox.
Freddy Garcia/CWS (vs. HOU, vs. TOR): 3-0 in last three. 15:4 K:BB in that span. 

Don’t Touch ‘Em

Brad Lincoln, Ian Snell, Kyle Davies, John Lannan 

Week 10 One Start Stars Owned in 50% or Less

Clayton Richard /SD 48% Y! – Saturday vs. BAL (Millwood): 4-1 w/2.29 ERA over last nine  
Fausto Carmona /CLE 26% Y! – Friday @PIT (Maholm): Tossed a CG, 3 H, 1 ER Gem last turn.

Who will be the best Two-Start Pitcher owned in 50% or less in week 11?
Will Stephen Strasburg continue to live up to the hype?
Leave a comment, or reply to us on Twitter
Twitter.com/thefantasyfix

Make sure to check out our weekly Two-Start Pitchers and Must or Bust Analysis on www.thefantasyfix.com

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15
Jun/10

Must or Bust: Are Jonathan Niese, Ted Lilly and Brennan Boesch Waiver-Wire Gems?

by under MLB

A quick look at last week’s Fantasy Baseball top performing and least owned players on the waiver wire. Jonathan Niese and Ted Lilly throw a 1 hitter. Aubrey Huff and Gaby Sanchez hit two dingers each. Can they really keep it up for another week? Check out who’s a Must or a Bust.

BATTERS

Sean Rodriguez – 9% of Y! Leagues
5 R / 2 HRS / 5 RBI / .478 BA
I really like what we’re seeing from this kid. Riding a 14 game hitting streak, he’s boosted his average from a measly .245 to respectable .288. He even had a nine game tear of one run per game. We’ll see exactly how good Rodriguez is in the next few weeks, but if he’s gonna do it anywhere it will be on the hard hitting Rays.

Gaby Sanchez – 7% of Y! Leagues
5 R / 3 HRS / 7 RBI / .409 BA
A big guy who can hit for power that is owned in under 10 percent of leagues? Slightly larger than Cody Ross, we may have a winner on our hands.

Ryan Spilborghs – 1% of Y! Leagues
5 R / 3 HRS / 3 RBI / .625 BA
Well we all know that playing in Colorado always produces big numbers, but not for a part-time player. He’s got real competition in the OF with CarGo and Hawpe but if Smith doesn’t produce Spillborghs could see increased time. Good numbers for the week but let’s not get crazy here.

Brennan Boesch – 36% of Y! Leagues
5 R / 3 HRS / 5 RBI / 1 SB / .360 BA
A fantastic start for a fantastic rookie. The average, homers and RBIs are all there. Only category that is low is the runs, but they will come.

Aubrey Huff – 30% of Y! Leagues
5 R / 3 HRS / 7 RBI / .348 BA
Huff is starting to heat up and must I remind you that we are only one year removed from 32 homers? Six of his 10 dingers have come in the last month. The potential is absolutely there.

Erick Aybar – 46% of Y! Leagues
6 R / 3 RBI / 2 SB / .419 BA
Switching to the leadoff spot has turned things around for Aybar. Aybar won’t ever get you homers or RBIs but if you lack runs and stolen bases he’s your guy. Aybar already has 11 stolen bases—he had 14 in twice as many at bats in ’09. Twelve multi-hit games in the past month too.

Garrett Jones – 55% of Y! Leagues
4 R / 2 HRS / 4 RBI / 2 SB / .333 BA
Jones grabbed everyone’s attention last year with monster numbers in half a season. The beginning of this year hasn’t been all-star worthy but he’s started to heat up again. In the past 12 games, Jones has seven multi-hit games and five homers. He’s also raised his average 39 points in the last month.

PITCHERS

Ted Lilly – 51% of Y! Leagues
16 IP / 1 W / 11 K / 0.56 ERA / 0.38 WHIP
What a week for Lilly! First a four hitter, one run game against Milwaukee, and then a shutout, one hitter against the White Sox. The wins have been few and far between but can you really blame a pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA? Eight quality starts out 10. He is a MUST in all leagues right now.

Jason Hammel – 9% of Y! Leagues
15.1 IP / 2 W / 9 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.98 WHIP
Hammel is on a lot of people’s watch lists as a break through for 2010. He has put the groin injury behind him and dominated the past two starts, giving up zero runs and only three runs in the past four. (for more detailed numbers see Tommy Landry’s take—The Fantasy Fix Roundtable: Post All-Star Break Targets).

Jonathon Niese – 9% of Y! Leagues
9 IP / 1 W / 6 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.11 WHIP
Santana seriously needed the backup after getting absolutely nothing from Perez and Maine, so Niese and Pelfrey have stepped it up. A one hitter against San Diego has him on everyone’s watch list…is another dominant game in order against the lowly Indians? Couldn’t pick a better team to follow up against!

Justin Masterson – 7% of Y! Leagues
9 IP / 1 W / 6 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.44 WHIP
The potential is certainly there and his last game against his former team sure was magical (CG, two hits). My only concern is that Masterson has only pitched over seven innings twice this year. Batters are hitting .287 against him and he has a crazy high WHIP (1.64). I won’t say his last game was a fluke but I will need a bunch more quality starts to get on this train.

Wade LeBlanc – 11% of Y! Leagues
13IP / 2 W / 6 K / 0.69 ERA / 1.15 WHIP
After four straight losses, Wad has turned it around the last two only giving up one run in 13 innings. The Padres pitching this year has been outstanding, and LeBlanc is right there in the mix. A high WHIP but a low ERA, keeps me with a watchful eye.

Joel Piñeiro – 25% of Y! Leagues
9 IP / 1 W / 7 K / 1.00 ERA / 0.67 WHIP
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again—Pineiro is a ROLLERCOASTER! He pitches one good game he gives up six runs the next. He pitches two great games, he give up nine the next. I don’t have the stomach for him. As many weeks that he will win for you, he will single-handedly lose the rest. Someday, Joel, someday.

Gavin Floyd – 51% of Y! Leagues
14 IP / 1 W / 17 K / 1.29 ERA / 1.00 WHIP
2008 may be the best we will ever get from Floyd, but there is a reason why he was the Phillies first round pick. He has amazing control and can win a game without dominating the batters. Two solid starts in row hopefully has Floyd back on track. Higher owned, but still worth taking a peek to see if he’s out there.

Is Niese the real deal? Will Lilly keep it up?
 Leave a comment  or reply to us on Twitter.
Twitter.com/fantasyfix_evan or
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Tags: Waiver Wire, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Fantasy Fix, Must or Bust, Fantasy Marx, MLB, NL, AL, Sean Rodriguez, Gaby Sanchez, Ryan Spilborghs, Brennan Boesch, Aubrey Huff, Erick Aybar, Garrett Jones, Ted Lilly, Jason Hammel, Jonathon Niese, Justin Masterson, Wade LeBlanc, Joel Piñeiro, Gavin Floyd, Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana, Brad Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez, Tampa Bay Rays, Florida Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angels Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians, San Diego Padres, Saint Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox.

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15
Jun/10

The MLB Fantasy Fix Roundtable: Post All-Star Break Targets

by under MLB

The Fantasy Fix (www.thefantasyfix.com) asked five of the top up-and-coming Fantasy Experts out there the following question:

As we approach the 2010 All-Star Break, who will you be targeting to trade for as a buy-low candidate or sleeper? Name one batter and one pitcher that will make a big 180 for the 2nd half.

Let’s hear some realistic and unique options.

 

Batter: Carlos Pena, 1B, TB

My, what a disaster Pena’s season has been, at least up until his barrage of home runs last week. Trend or slight uptick? I say it should be more trend than mirage.

If you’ve been paying attention, you already know he is streaky (see last week for example). But what you might not see is that he can’t possibly continue to be as horrible as he was in the early going. Let’s look at some numbers to date (valid through Wednesday June 9, 2010):

BABIP = .200 (.250 in 2009, .283 in career)

Walk Rate = 13.4% (15.3% in 2009, 13.3% in career)

GB% = 44.1% (29.0% in 2009, 36.2% in career)

FB% = 44.9% (54.1% in 2009, 45.7% in career)

LD% = 11.0% (16.8% in 2009, 18.0% in career)

What does this all mean?

Well, since his strikeout rate is right on par with previous performances, it explains a lot. First, his BABIP indicates that he has been very unlucky on batted balls into play. As compared to career numbers, he could be batting up to 50 points above his current .184 on luck alone.

A deeper look at his GB/FB/LD split shows that he is hitting the ball weakly into the infield a ton this year (GB percent is a career high and LD percent is a career low for him in seasons of 100+ AB). Even a speed demon, like Juan Pierre, would have trouble getting on base with those splits.

The root cause of those symptoms is his Chase Percentage (O-Swing percent), or how many pitches outside of the strike zone he is hacking at, which sits at 31.2 percent (also a career high for seasons of 100+AB). That may be a result of pitchers trying to keep him off balance by throwing more changeups and cutters, rather than fastballs, which he can lace into the stands.

Since his walk rate is holding steady as compared to career averages, I say it is only a matter of time before Pena settles down and adjusts to the pitching mix. Buy now and get the good part of his season stats on your roster.

 

Pitcher: Jason Hammel, SP, COL

The Rockies have really improved their rotation over the past few years, and the most under-appreciated member of the starting cast is Jason Hammel. Ignore the ERA he has posted to date, because much of that damage was done back when he was battling a nagging groin injury, the same one that sent him to the DL for a couple of weeks in early May.

Now that he is back and healthy, I see nothing but sunny skies ahead.

Hammel actually pitched very well in 2009, despite finishing with a 4.33 ERA. If you look deeper at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), or what he would have done with even luck and quality fielding across the board, he should have finished with an ERA of 3.71.

Curiously enough, his FIP to date is 3.73, almost identical to what he posted last season. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has also fixed problems with gopheritis (0.87 HR/9 over that span, 1.07 in career) and free passes (BB/9 in the 2.55 range, 3.14 in career).

For the third stright year, Hammel is forcing groundballs at least 46 percent of the time a batter makes contact, and he has kept his FB percentage right around 30 percent. You can attribute some of this to experience and the rest to his move away from changeups (11.2%, 9.5%, and 5.6% in 2008/2009/2010 to date) to more of a focus on curveballs (10.0%, 15.6%, 16.9%).

Whatever the reason, Jason Hammel has been pitching like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 39 starts now, so it’s time to give the kid his due. The best part is that he can be had for a waiver claim in the majority of leagues, so the price is most certainly right!

Tommy Landry, co-founder of RotoExperts.com, has a long track record of success in entrepreneurship, marketing, and the fantasy sports business. You can also join in the conversation with him on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/Tommy_Landry

 

Batter: Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR

Hill was a guy I earned a lot of money on last year.  The problem is that I got him for $1 in keeper leagues, so there was no way I could let him go.  Knowing this, I knew he was a classic stay-away guy in 2010 because of the over-achievement.

What killed Hill was the hamstring injury right off the bat.  Some of Hill’s fantasy numbers are very ugly and scream stay away. 

But if you dig deeper and look at why Hill has been so bad this year, here is what you will find:

    •    Contact Rate is 83 percent (only a matter of time before they become base hits)

    •    Walk rate is up from 5.7 percent to 11.7 percent (very good indicator of improved patience)

    •    BABIP is .178 vs. .288 last year (terrible luck)

    •    BA is .188 vs. .286 last year (BABIP and BA correlation)

    •    FB percentage up to 49 percent vs. 41 percent last year

2B is very deep in the American League and in the majors overall. Hill could be a guy you use at UTIL/MI and get great insurance.

I think right now is the perfect time to get Hill and you can still get him very cheap. Buy now and speculate that his second half numbers will turn around.

 

Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR

It feels like Morrow has been around for 10 years and every year, we wait for the breakout. 

He never got a true shot to settle into a rotation spot with Seattle and then was dealt to Toronto in the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay deal.  Going with pitchers in the AL East is always a tough choice, but again, like Hill, there are some underliers that show me Morrow could be on his way to truly developing into that fantasy relevant pitcher.

    •    K/9 10.41 – always love guys who get the k’s

    •    .341 BABIP – this number is bound to settle in at .290.-.300

    •    June has a .254 BABIP

    •    5.48 ERA but XERA 3.53

    •    4.52 BB/9—this number has to come down for Morrow to start being a good pitcher

    •    June has a 1.29 BB/9

I recently added Morrow in two leagues that have deep pitching requirements and I love the upside.  In the past, guys, like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa, have had similar profiles and finally broke through.

Michael Rathburn: Fantasy Baseball writer for MidWestSportsFans.com and www.aroundthecooler.com
Follow Michael at http://twitter.com/cooler_guy

Batter: Adam Lind, OF, TOR

Highly-touted coming into this year (average draft position, third or fourth round) and coming off a monster season that finally saw him put his potential to good use, Lind has so far had a horrendous start to 2010.  .209 average, eight home runs, a paltry 26 runs, and 31 RBI — all this for the team leading the majors in home runs — and just 49 hits. 

Yet, if you look deeper, some of his stats echo how atrocious he has been.  Yes, he is chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than last year.  Yes, he is striking out a slightly higher rate than last year.  Yes, he has shown an alarming drop in power to center field. 

BUT, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .247, or nearly 60 points below his career BABIP of .305.  That’s right — SIXTY points.  Aside from his stint with the Jays in 2007, when he proved he was not yet ready for the big time, he has never had a BABIP lower than .317. 

In the minors, his BABIP routinely reached the .360s and higher.

I don’t expect Lind to hit 25 home runs the rest of the season, but from this point forward, I expect that as his luck changes, so do his stats, and for the better.

 

Pitcher: Jake Peavy, SP, CHW

People forget that he’s still not so far removed from major arm surgery and had to deal with switching leagues, going from a great pitcher’s park to one that’s horrible, and learn a whole new set of hitters.

I think he’ll improve because we’ve seen flashes—his K/9, BB/9 and GB (ground ball) percentage have improved month-by-month this season, and he is still averaging 7.5 K’s per 9 innings this year.

Plus, his LOB percent is the lowest of his career and his BABIP is close to the highest — not a good combination to have. 

I expect, though, that as his luck starts changing and he leaves more runners on, his K rate will continue to rise, his ERA will fall, and he will pitch deeper into games and help himself to more wins.

Jesse Mendelson is Partner and Senior Writer for www.fantasybaseball101.com
For more up-to-the-minute analysis, trade mediation, roster evaluation, weekly tip, chats, and more, make sure to check out www.fantasybaseball101.com and follow us on Twitter on @fb101.

 

Batter: Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW

Gordon Beckham has basically played like garbage and polluted the fantasy landscape thus far.

His .206 Batting Average and one home run have left a single tear welling in the eye of his owners. Some people have a deep abiding respect for the natural beauty that was once this highly touted prospect; and some people don’t.

Gordo is currently owned in only 38 percent of Yahoo! leagues. If he isn’t a free agent in your league, his recent 102 At Bat streak without an Extra Base Hit should make him a cheap buy.

What many people don’t realize is that Beckham has been plagued a .250 BABIP. His 15.5 percet Line Drive and 51 percent Ground Ball Percentages suggest this number should be higher. The league average for BABIP is .298. 

Beckham has also been unlucky with a 1.9 Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage. The league average for HR/FB percentage is around 10-11 percent. The eighth-overall pick in the 2008 draft is much too talented to continue hitting this poorly.

The White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, sat down with Gordon and told him to go back to his aggressive approach at the plate and he has responded well. Since the two had a pow-wow, Beckham has strung together a four-game hit streak, going 4-for-13 with three doubles in the process.

Last season, Beckham hit 14 HR and stole seven bases in 103 games, his price won’t be any lower than it is now. If you need some cheap, productive help at the 2B position, look no further.

 

Pitcher: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD

Chad Billingsley is a well-known gunslinger. Tickets to Buffalo Billingsley’s Wild NL West Show could be expensive, unless you can find an owner who is fed up with his 1.40 WHIP.

Billingsley currently ranks 84th among all SP eligible pitchers on Yahoo! and his overall rank of 289 may help you acquire his services at a reasonable price. Chad’s ugly WHIP is not the result of him walking too many batters; he has actually reduced his walk rate from 3.94 BB/9 down to 3.17 BB/9.

The issue is his .332 BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .308 and he is actually giving up less line drives this year than he has in the past (17.4 LD percentage). His 1.40 WHIP should be considered bad luck, not bad pitching.

He is still striking out eight batters per nine and inducing a good number of ground balls (47.8 percent, 1.38 GB/FB), so I would also consider his 69.2 percent Strand Rate to be unlucky.

His career average for LOB percentage is 75.4 percent. His owners may believe that Billingsley is pitching his worst ball in the past four years, but all this adds up for me to believe that he should be posting the best numbers of his career when it comes to ERA and WHIP.

Look for a big turnaround in the second half of the season.

Andrew Holm (aka MDS) is the brainchild behind http://milliondollarsleeper.com. Follow Andrew on twitter at http://twitter.com/andrewakamds

 

Batter: Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC

Aramis Ramirez’s season has been a disaster of epic proportions.  The once-mighty run producer has seen his numbers washed away by a tsunami of strikeouts and lazy fly balls.  By some measures, he’s been the worst regular position player in all of baseball. 

Now on the 15-day DL due to a strained thumb, he also hasn’t done much to shed the “injury-prone” label that he’s earned over the past few years.

Since A-Ram has never had a stretch this bad, I’m willing to assume that the thumb problem has exacerbated his usual slow start.  Sure, he’s on the downside of his career, but he’s about to turn 32, not 37. 

Just last year, he put up a .317 BA with 15 HR and 65 RBI, despite playing in just 82 games.  A-Ram has always been a second-half hitter (second half OPS of .870 vs. .807 in the first half), and has always thrived at Wrigley Field (career .918 OPS).

If he comes back healthy for the hot summer months at Wrigley, he should put up a .285+ BA and approach 15 HR and 50 RBI in the second half.  That should be enough to outperform popular third-sackers, like Jose Bautista, Scott Rolen, Casey McGeehee, Chase Headley, Placido Polanco, Alberto Callaspo, Juan Uribe, Ty Wigginton, and David Freese.

See if you can lowball his frustrated owner and reap the benefits.

 

Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA

After Saturday night’s shelling in Tampa Bay, Ricky Nolasco’s ERA stands at 5.05 and his strikeout rate is down to 6.6 per nine innings.  That’s a bitter pill to swallow for fantasy owners who looked past his bloated 2009 ERA and drafted him 20th among starting pitchers in ESPN leagues.

Maybe this is déjà vu all over again as Ricky was awful in the first part of 2009, when he was rocked over his first nine starts to the tune of a 9.07 ERA.  He turned his season around after a two-week stint in the minors and was a true ace over his last 22 starts, with a 3.82 ERA and an elite 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Unless there’s a secret injury, we might just be seeing a mini-repeat of 2009.  He’s still in his prime and has shown the ability to lose his mechanics for a stretch and then bounce back. 

Perhaps he’s turning out to be a second-half pitcher (he also pitched better in the second half of 2008).  See if you can pry him loose from a frustrated owner and hope that history repeats itself.

Follow Alex Shear on Twitter (@rotosleeperz) and check out his rarely updated blog at http://rotosleeperz.blogspot.com

Batter: Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA

2009 was Chone’s BIG contract year, and boy, did he not disappoint. Figgins finished the year with 114 Runs, 101 Walks, 42 SBs, and .298 BA from the leadoff spot. Getting himself a four-year, $36 million contract, and a new city (Seattle) to boot.

Now, you’d expect an All-Star caliber player like Figgins to handle a move to a new team like a pro, but after a forgeable first half, we are left with some questions. Let’s take a look at where we are and where it has gone wrong:

In his first 6 full seasons (2004-2009) Chone averaged:  44 SBs, 92.7 Runs, 52.2 RBIs, 162 Hits, .291 AVG

Now, for a prototypical leadoff hitter, these numbers are some of the tops in the sport. One of the things I preach the most is that baseball is a game of averages.

If you look back over five years, certain trends will appear for the better players. Now I understand that Chone is facing some different circumstances than before; Figgins is now batting in the two-hole (behind Ichiro), and becoming an everyday second baseman. But you can expect a monster second half as he becomes more comfortable with his roles, teammates, and city.

Bottom Line 2nd Half Expectations

Current 2010 1st Half:  ABs- 220, BA -.227, Hits – 50, RBIs -16 Runs – 26, SB – 13

Projected 2nd Half:  ABs – 400, BA – .300, Hits – 120, RBIs – 30, Runs – 75, SB – 25

 

Pitcher: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW

It’s been a rough and, altogether, puzzling first half for White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. His staggering 6.18 ERA is the second highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 50 IP. In 206 1/3 innings in 2008, he allowed 190 hits. In 193 innings in 2009, he allowed 178 hits.

Through 67 innings of work in 2010, he’s allowed 84 hits. The usually tough to square up Floyd is finding too many barrels.

What’s gone wrong:  Right-handed hitters are batting .306 against Floyd. The same RHH he held to a .256 clip in ’09 and .226 in ’08. When he gets himself into a jam, he’s not escaping free of harm. He’s allowed 26 ER in RISP w/2-out situations through 12 starts, compared to 35 ER all of last season.

His LOB percentage is a dismal 62.6 percent. His BAA on balls put in play (BABIP) is .369, an obscenely high frequency of success for opposing hitters. Compare that figure to .268 in ’08 and .292 in ’09. Floyd is throwing more changeups and less curveballs, a recipe that doesn’t seem to be paying dividends.

Why things just don’t add up: He’s averaging 7.66 K/9 innings, the highest figure of his career. He’s only allowed 7 HR, or 0.94 HR/9, his lowest gopher ball rate at the major league level. His ground ball rate of 46.6% is also the highest he’s ever produced. His average fastball velocity has been 92.1 MPH, over a mile per hour higher (90.9) than he threw in his 17-win campaign in 2008.

Despite his abysmal numbers, there is reason for optimism. Floyd has delivered only four quality starts all season, and three of those starts came in his last four outings. In those three quality starts, he K’d 20 against only five BB in 19 1/3 innings. He did throw in a 2 2/3 inning, 6 ER disaster in between those starts, but we’re trying to accentuate the positive.

His line-drive percentage is down, so eventually, those groundballs with eyes will find some gloves. With a bit of good fortune and improved run prevention in RISP situations, Floyd’s numbers should slowly creep back towards his traditional pitching line. He makes for a great buy low option (if he’s not on the waiver wire) and should be solid piece for fantasy rotations in the second half.

Pitcher written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix (www.thefantasyfix.com). Follow Adam here weekly or on twitter http://twitter.com/adamganeles. Batter written by DP (aka Fantasy Mechanic) for The Fantasy Fix, there’s a reason why he wins championships every year. Follow all our tweets @thefantasyfix

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11
Jun/10

What a Bunch of Dicks: Baseball’s Funniest Names

by under MLB

What do Dick Pole, Rusty Kuntz, Wilbur Wood, and Johnny Wockenfuss have in common? Their names all make me crap my pants from laughing so hard. How would you use “Rusty Kuntz” in a sentence?…

 

As a long time card collector, I’ve come across some of the most ridiculous names ever. Every time I buy a collection, I sort through and put the funny ones to the side. Honestly, I’m glad they exist…I mean who wants to root for a Joe Smith or Bob Jones? So every time I come home absolutely trashed from a good night of debacle, I bring out the cards and laugh until I puke, literally. Be prepared to piss your pants…

 

WHAT A BUNCH OF DICKS

I’m sorry but I giggle anytime I hear someone with the name Dick. A long long time ago there must have been a guy named Dick who was just such a jackass, that the name took on new meaning. I feel bad for the Dicks who are actually good guys, cause to me they are still dicks.

THE NUMBER ONE DICK

Dick Pole

Boston Red Sox (1973-1976)

Seattle Mariners (1977-1978)

He’s no ordinary Dick with that last name. If I had the misfortune to be named Dick, I would definitely want this kickass name.

Used in a sentence –

“Ride that Dick Pole ladies.”

THE RUNNERS UP

Dick Bass, Dickie Thon, Dick Green

 

NOW THAT’S JUST DIRTY

Following the Dicks are a bunch of guys who I wish they would name cities after or at the very least stripclubs. Could you imagine the Human Resources problems there would be if these guys worked in an office (some of them probably do have sales jobs these days)?

THE WINNER

Rusty Kuntz

Chicago White Sox (1979-1983)

Minnesota Twins (1983)

Detroit Tigers (1984-1985)

Hands down the best name ever. So many jokes, so little time.

Used in a sentence – “I was feeling a bit lonely so I drove down to the corner but all I saw was a bunch of Rusty Kuntz. I went home instead and broke out the lotion.”

THE RUNNERS UP

Buzz Nutter, Woody Held, Pete Beathard, Boobie Clark, Pete LaCock

 

I SWEAR YOU WERE A GARBAGE PAIL KID

Not sure what their parents were smoking or if they just had awesome senses of humor, but with names like these, who can’t love them.

THE WINNER

Wilbur Wood

Boston Red Sox (1961-1964)

Pittsburgh Pirates (1964-1965)

Chicago White Sox (1967-1978)

Alliteration at its finest, plus we get the word “wood” in there. Insert Beavis & Butthead laughs.

THE RUNNER UPS

Britt Burns, Sixto Lezcano, Steve Stonebreaker, Randy Ready, Clay Kirby, Pat Putnam, Minnie Minoso, Dick Drago, John Henry Johnson

 

YOUR NAME IS WHAT???

Some guys’ names aren’t perverted or even rhyme. They are just ridiculous and awesome at the same time.

 

THE WINNERS (2-way tie)

JOHNNY WOCKENFUSS

Detroit Tigers (1974-1983)

Philadelphia Phillies (1984-1985)

What’s all the Wockenfuss about? The bushy haired, thick mustached Wockenfuss just screams 80’s pornstar. He is what every man aspires to be. Someone please make me a Johnny Wockenfuss t-shirt.

Shooty Babitt

Oakland Athletics (1981)

His real name was Mack Neal Babitt. Even that is pretty damn funny. But somehow, someone nicknamed him “Shooty.” I have no idea what it means or where it came from and for once I am extremely disappointed in the Internet.

THE RUNNER UPS

Rod Scurry (hope I didn’t catch the Rod Scurry), Champ Summers, Vida Blue, Mickey Klutts, Johnnie LeMaster, Bake McBride, Doc Medich

 

 

 

I wanted this to be all Baseball but a few Football names made it in here cause they were just too good to leave off – Pete Beathard, come on!

I know I left off a million names here. We would love to hear some of your favorites!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6
Jun/10

Sizing Up Your Options: Grady Sizemore Out for the Season

by under MLB

It’s a strange feeling losing Grady Sizemore for the year because for all intense and purposes he never really showed up.  His name alone had him owned in upwards of 90 percent of leagues entering Week Nine.  Yet in 128 at bats Grady was hitting .211 with only 15 Runs, zero Homers, 13 RBIs, and four stolen bases.  To put things into perspective Kyle Blanks in 103 at bats had 14 Runs, three Homers, 15 RBIs, and one Stolen base (he also hasn’t played in two weeks, and is currently in the minors).  Being the optimist that I am I ask myself what it the upside to this loss?  This was a blessing in disguise, and literally picking up ANY other starting Outfielder will give you an immediate boost.  That’s not good enough though, you want the best available player on the wire to fill your void. 

There are two things you can look at:

   1. Best Available Outfielder covering the five major offensive statistical  areas (R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG)
   2. Your team has one pressing need and consistently loses one of the five categories above, so you grab the best player excelling at that category.

Let’s take a look at who makes the most sense to pick up covering both these perspectives.Option I (Well Rounded Starters)

                             H/AB-Runs-HR-RBI-SB-Avg

   1. Drew Stubbs     42/178-31-6-26-12-.236  Cincinnati Reds
   2. Corey Hart        43/167-23-14-35-3-.257  Milwaukee Brewers
   3. Jason Kubel      37/163-15-6-31-0-.227    Minnesota Twins
   4. JD Drew           53/193-33-6-33-1-.275    Boston Red Sox
   5. Cody Ross        61/205-27-5-30-3-.298    Florida Marlins
   6. Jose Guillen      51/209-33-12-34-1-.244  Kansas City Royals

Option II (Single Stat Upgrades)

Runs

Seth Smith = Scored 19 times in the last month, huge beneficiary of Dexter Fowler’s demotion.
Fred Lewis = Scored 18 times in the last month, Leading off for a team full RBI machines.

Home Runs

Corey Hart = has 11 HRs in the last 30 days.  Enough said.

RBIs

Delmon Young = He may not have the pop we would like, but he still drove in 18 over the last month.
Hideki Matsui = More like a Gecko than Godzilla, but still hits fifth on a very good team driving in 18 over the last month.

Stolen Bases
Juan Pierre =  22 Swipes this year
Nyjer Morgan = 12 SBs in 2010 so far, and heating up

Average

David DeJesus  = 33 for his last 94 (.351)
Chris Coghlan = 36 for his last 113 (.319)

Check out www.thefantasyfix.com or hit us up on Twitter.
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6
Jun/10

The Fantasy Fix’s AAA Farm Report

by under MLB

Key player notes from AAA’s International and Pacific Coast Leagues. Who’s moving on up and who’s failing to distinguish themselves?

POSITION PLAYERS
Michael Brantley , OF Cleveland- AAA Line .281, 1 HR, 11 RBI
With Grady Sizemore sidelined for the year following knee surgery, a spot appears to have opened up for Brantley. But where has Brantley’s speed gone? After stealing 46 bases in 116 games at AAA Columbus in 2009, he’s swiped only five bags in 36 games in 2010. He’s not even attempting to run, only being caught twice. It should also be noted that he didn’t attempt a stolen bases in nine games with the big club earlier this season. Brantley hit .313/0/11 in ’09 in 112 major league AB, and .156/0/3 in 32 AB in ’10 before his demotion.

Pedro Alvarez , 3B Pittsburgh- AAA line .278, 11 HR, 47 RBI
Alvarez, the Buccos No. 2 overall pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, is showing serious pop at the highest minor league level. He’s compiled 12 doubles, three triples and 11 HR for a .527 SLG %. After struggling early on against left-handed pitching, Alvarez has picked up the pace. His .286 BA in 56 AB against LHP now sits higher than .275 BA in 149 AB versus RHP. He can’t be too far from the majors with Andy LaRoche and his .317 OBP and .349 SLG in his path. There’s also a possibility Garret Jones will shift to RF and Alvarez will move across the diamond to 1B.

Todd Frazier , 1B Cincinnati- AAA line .194, 7 HR, 19 RBI
Talk about struggling with the stick.. Frazier is in a rough place right now. After hitting .292/16/77 in AAA Louisville in 2009, he has just 33 hits and a .266 OBP through 47 games in 2010. The Reds have moved Frazier all over the field defensively, and it could be taking it’s toll on his overall game. They may be better suited keeping him in one spot and letting him focus on his ticket to the bigs, his swing.

Desmond Jennings , CF Tampa Bay- AAA Line .236 0 HR 6 RBI
Jennings missed much of April with a left wrist injury and has not been himself since returning. Jennings numbers are dramatically down from 2009 when he hit .318/11/62 for AAA Durham. In his last 10 games Jennings is batting .175 (7 for 40) with 1 RBI, 11 K and 1 SB. He has been extremely effective on the base paths on the season, stealing 12 while being caught only once. He swiped 52 bags in 59 attempts in ’09. Jennings is viewed as the Rays top offensive prospect, but will need to pick up his production to reach the majors.

Jason Castro , C Houston- AAA Line .279, 1 HR, 18 RBI
Castro’s best attribute has been his eye at the plate. He’s walked 31 times against just 24 K’s for an OBP of .396. However, the pop, in the hitter friendly PCL nonetheless, is sorely missing. He has 1 HR and 7 XBH in 165 AB, and is slugging an unimpressive .333. Castro has done his best work with RISP, hitting .326 and driving in 15 of his 18 runs.

Logan Morrison , 1B Florida- AAA Line .300, 3 HR, 17 RBI
Gaby Sanchez has been adequate at 1B for the Marlins, but he can’t hold off Morrison for long. In 25 games with AAA New Orleans, Morrison is sporting a .400 OBP and .544 SLG. His BB/K ratio is 16/13. In 24 AB with RISP he’s raking to the tune of .458. He’s also displayed solid top end speed notching three triples to go along with his seven doubles.

PITCHERS
Jake Arrieta , SP Baltimore- AAA line 6-2, 1.85 ERA, 64 K
The O’s top pitching prospect is rolling right along in 2010, owning the top ERA in the International League. Opponents are hitting a meager .189 against him, and he’s getting 1.43 ground outs to air outs. In his last three starts he’s thrown 22 innings, allowing 16 hits, 2 ER and striking out 23. Arrieta was scratched from his June 5 start and could be headed to the big club imminently. Snatch him up while you can!

Jeremy Hellickson , SP Tampa Bay- AAA Line 8-2, 2.28 ERA, 71 K
The power pitching Hellickson leads the AAA IL with 8 wins. He’s been real stingy on the mound, not yielding a run in four of his last five starts. In those four starts he’s pitched 27 innings, allowed 16 hits and K’d 27. With Wade Davis’ ERA now over 5, will Hellickson get the call?

Carlos Carrasco , SP Cleveland- AAA Line: 4-2, 4.68 ERA, 46 K
Now at 23 years of age, Carrasco has still failed to live up to the hype. Prior to being dealt to the Indians, Carrasco made 20 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley in 2009, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He finished the season strong for AAA Columbus winning 5 of 6 starts with a .319 ERA and allowing only 31 hits in 42 1/3 innings. He has taken a step back once again in early in 2010. He’s given up 64 hits in 59 2/3 innings while striking out only 46. Opponents are hitting a comfortable .282 against him, and right handed hitters are hitting .313. On a positive note, Carrasco is getting ground balls with a 1.21 GO/AO ratio.

Madison Bumgarner , SP San Francisco- AAA Line: 5-1, 2.73 ERA, 43 K
As Todd Wellemeyer continues to get shelled, a logical question arises: where is Madison Bumgarner? The Giants top farmhand has been sharp since two rough starts to open the AAA season, albeit, not in dominating fashion. He’s allowed 66 hits in 62 2/3 innings of work and struck out only 43. Nevertheless, Bumgarner’s been extremely effective at forcing opponents to pound the ball into the ground. For example: In his May 23rd start vs. Nashville he recorded 14 outs on balls put in play. Twelve were recorded on the ground. Despite giving up his 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings in that start, he maneuvered his way through the jams without conceding an earned run.

WHERE’D THEY GO?
Chris Davis , 1B Texas- Davis is hitting .313 with 5 HR and 31 RBI for AAA Oklahoma City in the PCL. He’s still striking out too much with a 13/37 BB/K ratio.

Alex Gordon , OF Kansas City- Gordon has been killing the ball in 31 games for AAA Omaha in the PCL. He’s batting .371 with 9 HR and 26 RBI. His OBP is a ridiculous .510 and his SLG % is an equally preposterous figure at .662. Keep in mind, Royals GM Dayton Moore said Gordon will not be called up for the remainder of 2010.

Chris Johnson , 3B Houston- Johnson is tearing the cover off the ball for AAA Round Rock: .330, 6 HR and 26 RBI. However, he still refuses to take a BB. He’s walked only five times in 103 AB, and his OBP is only .24 higher than his BA. With the Astros season nearing an early termination, he’ll get the call back up soon. Johnson hit .227/0/2 in 22 AB earlier this year for the ‘Stros.

Written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix. Check back weekly for Adam’s awesome insight on MLB and MiLB Fantasy Baseball!

We’d love to hear your thoughts on AAA ball. Check out www.thefantasyfix.com or hit us up on Twitter.
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