When the offseason began (and Jazz Hands Uribe bolted for a multi-year deal in LA), talk trended towards the San Francisco Giants going after Tampa Bay SS Jason Bartlett, Minnesota SS JJ Hardy or free-agent Miguel Tejada.
With Bartlett agreeing to a two-year, $11 million deal yesterday with San Diego after the Padres traded for him in mid-December, and Hardy being acquired by Baltimore in early December, we can now look at how each of the three deals played out. And as you’ll see, I’m coming around on the Tejada deal.
As we all know, Miggy returns to the Bay on a one-year, $6.5 million deal. I’ll admit, at first my gut was to say, whoa, overpaid. But a month later, I’m starting to come around to it.
First off, I think that Sabean & Co.’s decision to go for a one-year, temporary solution, followed by a reevaluation next offseason, was the right move.
The Giants had a lot of emerging talent this past season and who is to say that Brandon Crawford or Manny Burriss doesn’t step it up in 2011?
Crawford looks like he could be the future SS by the Bay and is just 24-years-old. He’s a talented fielder with a below-average bat, but the Giants did invite him to Spring Training in 2010 so they must see something. FanGraphs’ Marc Hulet likens him to an Adam Everett.
And I know he’s had a shot, but Burriss is just 26. Once upon a time, he was talked about in the same sentence as a young’un named Elvis Andrus.
So already I’m glad we avoided the Uribe deal. Sure, Jazz Hands Uribe makes for a great utility when he’s not starting, but that’s a huge contract for a utility player.
In 2010, Uribe performed well in the SS role and so I think, with the market being as weak as it was, the best move was to find a talent that could essentially duplicate Uribe’s 2010 season. If we upgraded at all, even better!
Tejada was commanding a $6+ million deal, while Hardy & Bartlett were arbitration eligible and expected to earn $6-$6.5 apiece. (The Padres signed Bartlett to a two-year deal with breakdowns of $4 million in 2011, $5.5 million in 2012 and a $1.5 million buyout).
So at the time of the signings/trades, we’d expect to pay roughly the same amount for a one-year deal with each player (although Hardy and Bartlett would command multi-year deals).
Tejada is a very durable player, as can be seen with Bill James’ 2011 projections (671 PA to Bartlett’s 582, Hardy’s 526 and Uribe’s 575). I think James’ projections are a little high, but Tejada is projected for 17 HR/84 RBI with a .279 AVG.
Sounds a bit like Uribe’s 2010 line with a higher average. When it comes to replacing Uribe, I think Tejada will do a fantastic job. They both have solid gloves, are great clubhouse guys, and every now and then, will blast a rocket into the seats.
Bartlett was shopped pretty heavily during the Winter Meetings, once in a deal for Nolan Reimold but ultimately traded to the Padres for four players, including two young relievers Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos.
Ramos is the former top prospect, drafted in the sandwich round of 2005, and they both still have pretty high ceilings as big-league relievers. Tampa Bay had a need in the bullpen with all of their free-agent losses, and they found a team with a bullpen surplus.
I’m not exactly sure who the Giants would’ve shipped over for a trade with Bartlett, but the Giants have always done a great job filling bullpen needs in free agency or late season trades, so I feel like this is a deal that could’ve been explored.
In looking at the 2009 and 2010 season numbers of Ramos and Russell, the closest package I could make as far as stats and career trajectory would be Alex Hinshaw with either Henry Sosa or Dan Runzler. Jason Bartlett for Hinshaw & Sosa/Runzler? Certainly a possibility.
The thing is Sosa/Runzler can both still pan out for the Giants, just like Ramos still could as well. With anticipating Bartlett in the $6+ million range, I could see why the Giants wouldn’t pull the trigger on a deal like that.
James projects Bartlett for a .279 AVG, 6 HR/51 RBI, 79 R and 17 SB season. That’s pretty solid production from a big-league shortstop.
With the Giants not having guaranteed power in the lineup though and already great top-of-the-order guys in Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez, we don’t necessarily need our shortstop to be a typical top-of-the-lineup guy.
I think the best SS for the Giants needs to have pop in his bat and a good glove; that’s all. But Bartlett is young and talented. I wonder if Sabean gave Friedman a call to chat, and they just asked too much.
Hardy is another guy who is expecting a salary bump to about $6 million (at the moment it looks like Baltimore will be taking him to arbitration) but also has had some injury concerns in the past.
The Twins shipped him to Baltimore back in early December for two minor league pitchers in Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey. The Twins also included utility infielder Brendan Harris.
Despite the fact the Twins didn’t need to, the deals looks like a salary dump more than anything. Harris and Hardy will combine for about $8 million this season, but both contracts expire.
Hoey and Jacobsen are nothing special. Jacobsen is the better talent and is still a few years removed from the big leagues. Maybe on a bad team, they’d make bullpen in the tail end of 2011.
So what I’m saying is the Giants could have easily come up with pieces for this deal. Bill James projects Hardy for a .263 AVG, 16 HR/62 RBI season which is another line very similar to Uribe’s.
The problem with Hardy is simply his health. He has great power, and I believe the Twins sorely undervalue him to the point that the Baltimore trade (or if we had made the trade) will be steals.
With all that in mind, I like the Tejada signing. It was a one-year deal which means that at this time next year, we’ll be able to revisit the situation. Tejada is a durable guy and should fit in perfectly with the Giants clubhouse.
Of the three, he is really the only one with the ability to match Uribe’s line and potentially exceed it.
I used to love watching him play in Oakland, and although he’s not the MVP-caliber guy he was back then, he’ll fill in well either as our every day SS or just an everyday guy at SS and 3B.
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