Kuzul

With all the Cliff Lee rumors swirling around, all the baseball “experts” make it sound like the Twins can just have Lee if they wanted by offering a package centered around catching prospect Wilson Ramos. 

Yet for the Mets they HAVE to include Jenrry Mejia, because Fernando Martinez is not a strong enough centerpiece for a deal. Now, I fully understand why everyone would want Mejia to be the centerpiece of the deal, but I cannot fathom why it is people feel Ramos is strong enough to be the main piece and Martinez is not.

I think if you just take a look at their stats it is pretty obvious that not only is Martinez worthy of being the main part of a deal like Ramos he is also a better prospect than Ramos.

So despite playing at a higher level and putting up stats that are equal, if not better than Ramos at a younger age, Martinez is being viewed as an inferior prospect. Not only that, but one of the biggest knocks on Martinez is that he has spent so much time in the minor leagues without being able to crack into the majors, but Ramos has been down on the farm even longer.

It is also not like Ramos has been injury free throughout his minor league career spending time on the DL in 2008 and 2009.

Take a look at prospect guru John Sickels’ rankings of the two prospects over the last couple of years:

2010 – 4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
2009 – 3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B : Good glove, strong bat.
2008 – Not ranked

2010 – 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+ : People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He’s made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.
2009 – 2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
2008 – 1) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+ :.292/.332/.420 for Double-A Binghamton. Production improving, plate discipline still an issue, still very young.

It is also important to keep in mind that Sickels is a Twins fan, so there is reason to believe he is sometimes a bit biased towards their prospects—as he should be—and yet Martinez has always been ranked higher and going into the year he actually agreed with me that F-Mart is taking unnecessary criticism.

Wilson Ramos was impressive during his brief stint in the majors early this year, but ever since going down to the minors he has been awful. I think Ramos is a great prospect and worthy of being included in a deal for Lee, but so should the “Teenage Hitting Machine.”

Not to mention, if the Mariners really want a closer, Josh Thole is a pretty decent player who while he may not have the power or defense of Ramos hits for a higher average and has way better plate discipline. A deal of Fernando Martinez/Josh Thole/two more prospects, probably Kyle Allen and someone, or F-Mart/Reese Havens/and a pitching prospect should be enough to get a deal done for Lee. 

Any more than that and I would be a little upset with what the Mets traded.

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1. Cliff Lee — Lee is by far the best pitcher in the group and is having a fantastic season. 

He had a late start to his season because of an injury, but he is already 5-3 on a really bad team with a 2.55 ERA.

The most staggering thing about Lee’s season so far is his K/BB statistic, which right now it sits at 16.75. The next person on the list is Roy Halladay with a 6.13 K/BB.  Lee is on base to shatter the MLB record because, frankly, he just isn’t walking anyone. He has walked just 4 batters all season, which is good for a .46 BB/9 INN. 

Lee is just doing everything you can ask of an ace pitcher: winning games, giving up no runs, no hits, walking no one, striking guys out and pitching deep into games. Right now, he is averaging nearly 8 innings per start and already has 3 complete games in 10 starts.

The problem with Lee pitching so well is that it is going to cost a lot to get him.

The one thing going for the Mets is that the Mariners were asking for bats in return so the Mets can still keep Jenrry Mejia. With Fernando Martinez just coming back from his injury two weeks ago, it was perfect timing for the M’s to get a good look at him. 

The other main prospect being thrown around in talks is Wilson Ramos of the Twins. The Mariners are in need of a catcher, but F-Mart is certainly the better prospect, and the Mariners outfield isn’t too great either, so he could surely help them up.

I understand the Mets have been reluctant to trade F-Mart in the past, but if there was ever the perfect opportunity to trade him, this would be it. Martinez is highly unlikely to match Lee’s success in the majors, and Lee would put the Mets over the top. Going into a playoff race with a rotation of Cliff Lee, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana is just devastating and will dramatically increase the Mets’s chances of getting to the World Series.

2. Fausto Carmona — I really like Carmona and actually traded for him last season in my dynasty league (I am the Mets in the league). 

He reminds me a lot of Big Mike Pelfrey. Both of them rely heavily on their sinkers that have similar velocity and get similar horizontal and vertical movement, each of them complements their fastball with a nice slider, and change up. The only difference is Pelf’s change up is now a split-fingered fastball, while Carmona uses a more traditional change. 

It is interesting to note that when Carmona had his best season in 2007, it was the last time he threw a splitter regularly. It would be interesting if the Mets acquire him if they have him go back to throwing the split.

The problem with Carmona is that he is signed cheaply for a couple years, so he is going to cost a pretty penny. I am not sure what the Indians would be looking for in return, but if I were Jenrry Mejia, I would balk at their asking price. This is a case where I would consider trading Fernando Martinez, but I would never be able to sell myself 100% on the idea.

3. Jeremy Guthrie — Guthrie is a very sticky situation. 

He is a solid middle rotation pitcher who will be under control until 2012, but the Orioles are going to be looking for a return on a No. 2 type of pitcher. 

I like Guthrie and like Carmona, I traded for him in my dynasty league. His stuff is likely to play better in the National League and Citi Field where his fly balls aren’t going to carry out as much as they do at Camden. If he can be had for a reasonable price without having to give up any top notch prospects, I am all for it. However, something tells me the O’s are going to want someone like Wilmer Flores for him and I just don’t think it would be smart for the Mets to do something like that.

4. Ben Sheets — I have always been a huge Ben Sheets fan and when the Athletics signed him in the off season, you know the only thing Billy Beane had in mind was to have Sheets show he was healthy so he could trade him for a couple of prospects.

Sheets is having an okay season thus far. He is 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, but almost all his other numbers are on par with his career numbers. He is actually getting more ground balls than usual, but the problem has been his control. He is walking way more batters than usual, with a rate of 3.81 BB/9 compared to his career average of 2.08. Part of the reason for the high ERA is the amount of home runs he has given up. His HR/FB percentage is all the way up to 12% since moving to the AL in Oakland, compared to 7.7% over his last 3 years. 

I think a move back to the NL could certainly help his numbers, and like with Guthrie, playing in Citi Field would definitely help his home run rate. I would really like if the Mets got Sheets because he shows flashes of being one of the best pitchers in the game, and he would certainly cost less than someone like Lee.

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Seventh Round (212th) — Jeff Walters | RHP | University of Georgia | 11/6/87 | R/R | 6’3 190 lbs.

This marks the fifth time Walters has been drafted in his career.  He has been taken in the 24th, 47th, 30th, 17th, and now seventh rounds.  This time, he is all but surely going to sign.  Walters has really smooth mechanics, but with a little bit of max effort, that looks to play better out of the pen.  His stats also lead me to believe that is where his future is.  The video has his fastball 88-92, but Baseball America wrote that he has a “plus” fastball that touched the mid-90′s and has flashed a plus slider.

Eighth Round (242nd) — Ken McDowall | RHP | College of Southern Nevada | 8/14/90 | R/R | 6’3 185 lbs.

McDowall can thank Bryce Harper for the exposure he got this year. His main pitch is a 90-92 mph sinker that had “the best movement on the staff”. He also throws a slider and change up, although both pitches lack in quality. McDowall is a sophomore and has committed to the University of Hawaii, so he is definitely no guarantee to sign with the Mets. He has some decent upside as a No. 5 starter if he can refine his command and secondary offerings or middle relief.

Ninth Round (272nd) — Jacob deGrom | RHP | Stetson U | 6/19/88 | L/R | 6’4 185 lbs.

This was deGrom’s first season with a role on the mound. He started the year playing shortstop and closing out games, but as the year moved on, he became a starter and the best pitcher on the team. Last year, his fastball was 88-92 mph, but he has improved, hitting 92-94 mph just last week. Reminds me of Bobby Parnell lite (minus a few mph on his fastball), as both are converted shortstops with a nice fastball/slider combo. Has great control for someone so new to pitching.

10th Round (302nd) — Akeel Morris | RHP | Charlotte Amalie HS | 11/14/92 | R/R | 6’1 170 lbs.

The first prep player selected by the Mets and probably the first player they will have to go over slot for after Harvey, Morris is widely considered the best Virgin Islands prospect. He can get his fastball up to 93 mph, but he still has room to grow both physically and with his mechanics to possibly add a tick or two on it. Needs better command of off speed pitches that have good natural movement. Threw a perfect game this season. Right now he is committed to Connors State College. Has the makings of a tough sign with the Mets’ shallow pockets.

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Full Name: Zack Cox
College: University of Arkansas
D.O.B.: 5/9/89 (21 years old)
Height: 6’0 ft.
Weight: 215 lbs.
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Position: 3B

Stats:

Accolades:

• Under Armour All-American
• Rawlings All-American
• Louisville Slugger All-American
• Mr. Baseball in Kentucky – 2008
• Louisville Slugger Player of the Year – 2007
• Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American
• NCBWA Second-Team Freshman All-American
• SEC All-Tournament Team
• NCAA All-Norman Regional
• Preseason No. 4 Newcomer in the SEC (Baseball America)
• No. 5 freshman prospect (Baseball America)
• 2 prospect in the Cape Cod Baseball League (Baseball America)
• Preseason Top 10 Impact Freshman (Rivals.com)

Previously Drafted: 2008—Los Angeles Dodgers, 20th round (607)
Mock Draft: Top 10 Pick

Skill Set: Almost considered the best pure hitter in the entire draft class. Very polished college hitter who should advance through the system very quickly. Has consistently showed the ability to hit for a high batting average with the only questions about his bat being his power potential. Has plenty of arm strength to stay at third, but there are thoughts he may move to second base.

Video:

Summary:  I’ve warmed up just a bit to Cox in last day or so, but I am still hoping the Mets choose to take a different route in the draft. I saw the stat that during the season he had at least one hit in 43 of his teams 45 games played, and that is just ridiculous no matter what level you are playing at.  I love the average, but ISO is just way too low considering he plays a slugging position. He is pretty athletic so he should be able to handle a move to second and become above league average there, but that would mean his success relies on his ability to learn a new position. I think that if the Mets were drafting in the middle of the first round I would love to take Cox, but this is just too early for me. Hopefully the Indians decide to take him, and let Drew Pomeranz fall to the Mets!

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With the draft on the horizon it is the perfect time to take a look back at some of baseball’s all time best #1 picks. Just because someone is drafted #1 overall doesn’t mean they are going to be the next best thing just look at Brien Taylor. Sometimes, however, teams who did their scouting wind up with future hall of famers.

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