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MLB Waiver Wire: MVPs, Riskiest Players and Potential Suitors

Players who range from assuredly lucrative to downright comical to generally intriguing make up the MLB waiver wire in 2013. Hot commodity Alex Rios finally went to the Texas Ranger, but some other big names have cleared waivers as well and still sit on their respective teams. Here’s a look at some guys who could move in the immediate future and the teams that should be in the hunt for them.

 

MVPs

Elvis Andrus

While it might seem silly for Texas to trade one of the (usually) more productive shortstops in the game to another contender, the Rangers have a surplus of middle infielders and can afford to let the 24-year-old go.

Andrus hasn’t been the offensive threat in 2013 as he had been in years past. His slash line is .254/.317/.305, which is below his career .271/.338/.345, but he’s already racked up 30 steals and still has the potential to be a weapon at the plate.

He also hasn’t displayed the same defensive acumen this year as he did in 2012. According to FanGraphs.com, his ultimate zone rating (UZR)—the most complicated but comprehensive defensive stat in the gamehas dropped from 2012’s 8.3 (sixth best in the majors) to 3.2 (11th best in the majors). But the glove wizardry is still there:

Still, the fact that he’s fallen so short of expectations this yearespecially after signing an eight-year, $120 million contract extension—could increase Texas’ willingness to part with him. If the Rangers encounter the right deal, they’ll entertain trade talks:

The team with the biggest need for Rios is St. Louis because Pete Kozma has been abysmal. There are better-hitting pitchers than him. His .225/.273/.284 line is by far the worst on the team. Yes, he can flash the leather with the best of them, but fans are fed up:

And the Cards are keeping their eyes open for an upgrade:

I’ll also mention that Cincinnati could benefit from benching Zack Cozart, but the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay thinks adding Andrus is unlikely:

 

Dan Haren

Not too long ago, Haren seemed to be one of 2013’s biggest disappointments. He was pitching to the tune of a 7-11 record with a 4.82 ERA—not exactly what the Washington Nationals had in mind when they signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal last December.

But wait, there’s been salvation:

According to Michael Barr of FanGraphs.com, Haren’s better pitches have become even more wicked:

In the second half, suddenly his sinker is terrific. Opponents are hitting just .200 with a .323 slugging percentage. His splitter is even better. Opponents are hitting just .103, slugging .138.

And per James Wagner of The Washington Post, Haren recently became just the 13th pitcher in baseball history to defeat all 30 teams. So clearly he can be consistently dominant.

One team that should vie for him is Atlanta. While I think it’s unlikely that Washington—which probably doesn’t consider itself out of the playoff hunt despite being 9.5 games back in the wild-card race—would trade Haren to a division rival, the Braves could use an ace-type in their rotation.

If Atlanta wants to contend against the Los Angeles Dodgers and their big three in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Braves should at least try for Haren.

While the Rangers might look to get rid of Andrus, they could be thinking about bringing Haren back to the AL West, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News.

Haren will be a free agent after the 2013 season, so unlike Andrus, he’d just be a rental and a fairly economical signing.

 

Risks

Barry Zito

Zito does not have a lot working in his favor right now.

Why is he dangerous? Why isn’t he dangerous is the better question.

Let’s start with the most obvious factors. He’s 35. He has a 5.34 ERA and by far the worst WHIP of his career (1.693). His numbers on the road are nauseating: a 9.45 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP. Which means he can only pitch (kind of) in San Francisco.

Then there’s the money issue. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports mentioned on August 14 that the southpaw “makes $20 million this season, with a $7 million buyout coming, so it’s no surprise at all that he cleared waivers.

Justin Gallagher, the sports editor for the San Juan Star, sums up the interest in Zito nicely in two tweets:

The Giants just booted Zito from their rotation. They clearly have no tie to him. While he has some postseason success, he’d be a risky pickup for anyone.

ESPN The Magazine’s Tim Keown argued that Zito “turned his career around” in 2012, so maybe there’s something left in his tank. If so, it must be a cavernous tank with some very good hiding spots.

If the Braves don’t try for Haren—or the still less risky Erik Bedard, who also just cleared waiversthey could go for Zito with a lot of blind faith. Devin Pangaro of Swingin‘ A’s wrote that while “there’s been no credible link to any true Athletics interest in Zito,” a reunion could be in order with the right deal.

At this point, Zito hasn’t proved that he can pitch anywhere other than at AT&T Park. And the mediocre Giants don’t even want him in the rotation. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

 

Placido Polanco

Polanco is a career .297 hitter and has the potential to help out a team like Atlanta. The Braves fail at hitting for average and just announced that infielder Tyler Pastornicky needs season-ending ACL surgery. Polanco would be great off the bench and is flexible positionally and in the batting order.

He also happens to be injury prone, which is why I’ve labeled him a risk.

It seemed like he was never on the field for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2012, and back issues have continued this year. Tony Verduci of SB Nation wrote in November 2012 that Polanco “has very little value as a starter at this stage of his career, with his his age, injury concerns and slower bat.”

Like Zito’s case, the prospect of a trade has only prompted humor:

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Ranking Potential Landing Spots for Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has cleared waivers, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While he did give a clear reason for his no-trade clause to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, saying, “There are still a couple things I would like to be number one on the lists of in this organization … so until those things are done, I’m not going anywhere,” the shortstop would be better suited in a new uniform.

While teams like the San Diego Padres could really use Rollins, the only way he’d conceivably waive his no-trade clause is if he could go to a contender. Here are three teams, in ascending order, that could vie for the veteran shortstop:

 

No. 3: New York Yankees

I know it’s silly to call the Yankees a contender at this point, but they’re never out of the race.

After a long career devoid of significant DL stints, Derek Jeter now can’t stay healthy, and the Yankees continue putting nobodies or has-beens out on the field.

Rollins would certainly fit New York’s mold. He’d be an overpaid, past-peak, once-All-Star veteran and would likely be one of the more productive hitters in a lineup that has the fourth-lowest team average and has scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball.  

In 2013, New York shortstops are batting .216 with an OPS of .578. While Rollins isn’t even close to the player he used to be, he’s still batting .255 and with a .660 OPS, so he would be an upgrade.

 

No. 2: Cleveland Indians

The Indians are fighting for any edge they can get in their quest to make it to October. Detroit’s latest winning streak makes it unlikely that the Indians will take the AL Central, but Cleveland’s wild-card hopes are very much alive.

Currently, Cleveland has Asdrubal Cabrera at short, and he’s been abysmal. He sports a .243/.297/.397 line with seven stolen bases and a .694 OPS. While Rollins’ power numbers are a little below Cabrera’s, he’s got nearly twice as many steals and gets on base more.

Defensively is where Cleveland could really use Rollins. In terms of UZR, by all accounts the most comprehensive advanced defensive metric, Cabrera is the worst shortstop in baseball. Rollins’ UZR (supplied by FanGraphs) of minus-1.9 isn’t 2012’s 8.7, but it’s nowhere near as cellar-dwelling as Cabrera’s minus-19.

A colleague of mine actually tweeted at me today inquiring about Rollins:

Well, Rollins certainly hasn’t been good. He’s been a disappointment and a pain in Philadelphia’s side. However, he’d be an improvement over Cabrera in the average, OBP and speed departments, and his defense—while it has declined since last year’s Gold Glove performance—would be a huge help.

 

No. 1: St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh is soaring and St. Louis is scuffling. And the Cardinals are getting no help from their shortstop.

Yes, he is a defensive wizard at times and is better at fielding his position than most in the game, but his brilliance stops there.

If Cabrera is abysmal, then there must be such a thing as sub-abysmal, and it is reserved for Pete Kozma.

Maybe that’s a little harsh, but his numbers warrant that kind of criticism. His cool .232/.279/.294 line and .573 OPS slot him as the worst in all offense categories on the Cardinals, and he sports the worst average, slugging percentage and OPS of any starting shortstop in baseball. Jimmy Rollins isn’t a premier shortstop anymore, but he’s also not Kozma.

If there’s talk about Rollins potentially going anywhere, most of the chatter has been concentrated in the St. Louis fanbase:

St. Louis needs to pull itself out of its current funk if it wants to take the division over the do-no-wrong Pirates. It certainly has a wealth of young talent to offer Philly’s barren farm system, so if Rollins will entertain a deal, so should Ruben Amaro Jr.

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MLB All-Star Game 2013: Players Campaigning to Get Themselves to Citi Field

With fan voting for the 2013 MLB All-Star Game coming down to its final stretch, players ranging from sure things to long shots are using Twitter as their prime method of self-marketing.

All-Star weekend runs from July 12th-July 16th. The most recent vote tallies were released on June 22 for the American League, and June 23 for the National League.

It doesn’t come as a shock that each team is pushing for its players to make the trip to Citi Field. Here’s a recent tweet from the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ official Twitter account regarding Pedro Alvarez, who hasn’t cracked the top five in fan voting for third basemen:

Then there are players who have taken it upon themselves to toot their own horns. The outfield races in both leagues are especially tight, so it’s unsurprising that vocal offenders hail from these positions.

Jose Bautista is a prime example. According to the updated polls, he’s recently closed the gap between his fourth-place standing and the third outfield spot, which is currently in Nick Markakis‘ hands (the two are separated by just under 50,000 votes). Bautista currently has a .250/.345/.481 line—not that impressive—but has been integral to Toronto‘s recent run

Not only is Bautista tweeting up a storm to help his cause, but just on Monday, the Twitter account @TeamBautista was created. The account is serving as a tool to help Bautista edge out fellow outfield candidates Markakis and Torii Hunter. He tweeted this on Sunday:

And then followed with this on Monday:

Here’s an example of a @TeamBautista tweet:

Dexter Fowler, who hasn’t even broken the top 15 outfielders in fan voting but who’s statistically having a better season than Bautista, retweeted this from the Colorado Rockies’ Twitter account on Monday:

Although Fowler’s performance this season does warrant more recognition from fans, this quest is likely pretty futile for the center fielder this late in the game. He’s the third-best hitter on the Rockies, and both Troy Tulowitzki (even injured) and Carlos Gonzalez have better chances of making the team from Colorado—in their respective positions. They are first and fourth, respectively, in fan voting.

Carlos Gomez, who is currently injured but in 11th place in the NL outfield fan voting, is making good use of his retweet button as well:

Gomez is having a breakout season (.313/.355/.570), which is why people have been voting for him. Not only has he been Mr. Consistency at the plate, his clinics in the field are can’t-miss:

There’s no statistic for how much Twitter campaigning sways voters, but if I had to guess, I’d say the influence is negligible. While it’s true that some of these campaigners are deserving players on the bubble, they are baseball players, not politicians. Fans are voting for Miguel Cabrera not because he’s an elite spokesperson for himself, but because he’s one of the best hitters of our time.

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MLB Draft 2013: Late-Round Picks Who Will Rise Quickly

The 2013 MLB Draft is fresh in our minds, and although it’s hard to contain the excitement about No. 1 pick Mark Appel finally being drafted, there are many lesser-known prospects who could make a splash sooner than we think. 

 

Corey Littrell

The Boston Red Sox picked Littrell as the 143rd overall pick in the draft (fifth round). MLB.com suspects that it might not be too long until we see Littrell in the majors, likely in a relief role, although he’s got starting capabilities as well. He’s a tall, strong lefty who’s got four pitches and plays for the University of Kentucky.

Littrell is Baseball America’s 129th-best prospect in draft scouting reports, and in addition to saying that he has “competitiveness and a tremendous feel for pitching,” the site notes that scouts are undecided about whether his changeup or his cutter—the latter new to his repertoire—is his best pitch.   

 

Ryan Aper

Aper went in the sixth round as the 172nd pick overall to the Miami Marlins. All accounts point to the fact that this kid is a hitting machine. According to Scott Richey of herald-review.com, Aper set many records this year:

“Aper was the national leader in home runs (17) among NJCAA Division II teams and also ranked third nationally in stolen bases (51). He also ended his Loggers’ career with the single-season records for batting average (.462) and hits (96) while ranking second in runs, steals and triples.”

Baseball America rated Aper as its 309th-best prospect in the draft. MLB.com’s scouting report does note that there is the question of how the center fielder will fare against higher-caliber pitching, but Joe Morgan of MLB.com is confident that Aper has not yet finished his development as a player.  

 

Jacob Nottingham

Nottingham, a catcher, went to the Houston Astros as the 167th overall pick (sixth round) in the draft, as Chris Abshire of MLB.com said that catcher is “one of the organization’s thinnest positions in the Minor Leagues.” This year he made the All-Region 2nd Team in California.

Baseball America ranked Nottingham as having the 114th-best draft scouting report and notes that although scouts are mixed about him, he has raw skill that could be the makings of a decent catcher. Nottingham may only be 18, but MLB.com notes that he is aggressive and has good power. Seeing as Minute Maid is more of a hitter’s park, Nottingham would be a great fit there.

Baseballamerica.com is subscription only. 

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MLB All-Star Game 2013: Hot-Hitting Players Looking to Earn Trip to Citi Field

Over the weekend, MLB.com released the most recent tallies for MLB All-Star fan voting. Many positions look to be locked up, but a number of players are still making their cases for why they should get the nod.

In the National League—the results for which were released on SundaySt. Louis’ Matt Carpenter overtook Chase Utley for third place among second basemen. Fellow Cardinal David Freese is also surging late in the game.  

Carpenter is having a breakout season, but isn’t a sure thing to make the All-Star team. San Francisco’s fanbase practically gives all the Giants a shot. Brandon Phillips being Mr. Personality is also a fan favorite. A career .304 hitter, Carpenter is currently batting .332 and has only been heating up more in June: He boasts a .439/.500/.610 line this month.

Carpenter is currently on an 18-game hitting streak and is among great company in the MLB, as shown by MLB Stat of the Day’s tweet yesterday:

Unlike Carpenter, 2011 World Series MVP David Freese did not start 2013 out too well, but is having a comparable June to Carpenter. April was painfully bad, as Freese batted .163 for the month, but has now brought is average up to .282 after batting .299 in May and hitting for a .405/.463/..541 line thus far in June. Think Carpenter’s hitting streak is impressive? Freese does him one better:

In the American League—the results for which were released on SaturdayBaltimore’s JJ Hardy took the lead at shortstop as a result of his torrid June, while Oakland’s Josh Donaldson entered the ranks at third base. 

Hardy received 717,103 votes by the first release of ballot voting, but he’s now at 1,231,843 votes due to improvement in play. Orioles 101 highlighted the shift:

It’s true. Hardy’s jump is especially of note seeing as he finished April with a .202/.243/.327 line. He is batting .485 with three homers and a slugging percentage that would be a great OPS (.879) in the month of June. Overall he’s now batting a respectable .271 with 13 homers.

Donaldson should make the All-Star team but has been overshadowed by the star power of Miggy and Manny Machado. This season he sports an impressive .324/.393/.521 line with a .914 OPS, and is batting .333 in June. After his first career grand slam on June 7, ESPN Stats & Information posted an article about Donaldson’s love for pitches in the middle of the strike zone, which included this graphic:

Out of the AL third basemen, Donaldson is second in batting average, OBP, and OPS (to Miggy, naturally), but still trails Cabrera, Machado, Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria in fan voting. 

All stats are from mlb.com and espn.com.

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Domonic Brown Becomes Philadelphia’s Best Hitter with a New Swing

Big Brown—one of Ryan Howard‘s many nicknames—was bestowed upon the first baseman during his reign as the Philadelphia Phillies‘ best power hitter.  Now a changing of the guard is in order. Big Brown Part Deux: The Real Big Brown is already underway.

Not too long ago, Domonic Brown appeared to be a bust. Despite being named the fourth-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America after the 2010 season, Brown scuttled early on.

Not to mention that the DL seemed to call to Brown like a siren. First he suffered a hamate bone fracture in 2011 that required surgery. Then it was a slew of nagging muscle issues in 2012.

In the first three years of his career, Brown hit a mediocre .230/.302/.381. In his 433 at-bats, he hit 12 homers. That’s one homer per 36.1 at-bats. Now I’d say he’s just a tad better. Brown is currently batting .272/.306/.549 with 15 bombs. In 195 at-bats. Overall, that’s a homer per 13 at-bats. In the month of May, that number drops to a home run per nine at-bats.

I’ll do my due diligence and note that Brown’s OBP is still pretty bad. And there’s a clear reason for this. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb, Brown walked exactly zero times in May. Before last night’s game, MLB Stat of the Day tweeted that Brown could go into the record books (which he did):

However, considering the Phillies Paradox (the team has one of the most anemic offenses in baseball despite playing in a hitter’s haven), this is a tradeoff the team is willing to take.

On Wednesday night—the day after he was named National League Player of the Week—Brown hit two jacks to lead the Phillies over the Boston Red Sox, 4-3. Gelb tweeted this during the game:

But Brown’s May heroics didn’t stop there. Last night, he raised his home run total in the month to 12 with another pair of bombs against the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s seven in seven days. Brown now has 15 dingers, which leads the NL.

Brown’s improvement may be due to a number of things. Maturation and playing everyday are certainly valid possibilities. In this case, however, something quite tangible is the culprit: his swing.

In an interview with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly, Brown noted that he is cognizant of the fact that his recent success is due to the changes he’s made at the plate. 

“I think I just had a longer swing, now that I’m looking back on it,” Brown said. “I did a lot to my swing to shorten it up, especially in those good hitter’s counts, just being able to be short and quick to the ball.

The differences are slight but significant. Here is Brown flailing at a high fastball during spring training in 2012:

Now look at the much-improved Brown hit a game-tying single against the Arizona Diamondbacks just a couple of weeks ago:

Brown’s quick hands are a by-product of his new approach. In this instance, they enabled him to fight off a tough pitch and knock it in the gap between shortstop and third base. Brown’s 2012 swing would’ve likely had him undercutting this pitch, resulting in one of those big whiffs Philadelphia has learned to endure.

In an interview with the Philadelphia Daily News’ Ryan Lawrence, Chase Utley—who champions the short swing—noted that he has picked up on Brown’s shift.

“It’s noticeable. I think he’s in more control than he has been in the past. He’s made some adjustments in his stance, where his hands are, and that’s probably allowed him to be a little quicker to the baseball, shorter to the baseball.”

So we know Brown can perform when it counts. He has the ever-coveted intangibles. But he also measures up when it comes to good old statistics. Out of the Phillies with 50 or more at-bats (and this is being quite generous), Brown leads the team (or is tied for the lead) in six offensive categories: batting average (.272, tied with Utley), runs (25 to the second-most 21), home runs (15 to the second-most seven), RBI (36 to the second-most 26), slugging percentage (.549 to the second-highest .475), and OPS (.855 to the second-highest .814). And four of these said “second” spots are held by none other than the DL King himself, Mr. Utley. So if we had been going by active players here, Brown’s stats would’ve distanced himself even further from the pack.

Just for kicks, Brown is also only a smidge behind the team leaders in hits and doubles.

Other vast improvements for Brown are his splits. As is typically the case with lefties, Brown struggled mightily against lefty arms early in his career. Before this season, Brown was batting .184 against lefties and .244 against righties. Reminiscent of Howard’s early numbers (Big Brown numero uno was .179 against lefties and .329 against righties in his first three years). In 2013—and this is not a typo—Brown is hitting .326 against lefties and .255 against righties. His improved swing working in tandem with improved vision show to be a lethal combination.

 

*All statistics are accurate as of May 31.

**All statistics are from espn.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and MLB.com

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