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Joe Panik is currently on a plane headed to Arizona, where he will meet up with the San Francisco Giants and likely make his major league debut in the coming days. 

Panik is from a suburb about one hour north of New York City. He attended high school at John Jay (East Fishkill, N.Y.), which—from personal experience—isn’t considered to be a baseball powerhouse. He wasn’t drafted out of high school, but went on to attend St. John’s University, where he positioned himself as arguably the best college shortstop heading into the 2011 draft.

Panik is a hard working, offensive-minded second baseman. His baseball IQ and maturity will be the reasons why Giants fans fall in love with his play. Offensively, he profiles similar to Daniel Murphy, the second baseman for the New York Mets, but defensively, he is much more adequate—a natural shortstop who shifted over to second base in his second professional season.

Since the day he put on a professional uniform, Panik has raked. He gets a bit of a bad rap for his offensive numbers at Double-A Richmond last year, but many overlook the fact that he suffered a hamstring injury early in spring training last year that led to a slow start that he was unable to rebound from. And the Eastern League isn’t exactly known for potent offense.

Many are calling 2014 his breakout year, but he’s really just playing ball the Panik way— doesn’t swing and miss much, makes solid contact, gets on base, plays solid defense, shows gap-to-gap power and drives the occasional ball out of the park. In fact, one of Panik’s homers this season was hit off highly touted Mets pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard. 

Panik trusts his talents. He knows what he can and can’t do. He can play up his strengths and will continue to work on any weaknesses he has. Giants fans will be very pleased with his production at second base—although, to be fair, they haven’t exactly been blown away this year by second base production, so it won’t be too difficult to please them. 

The Giants know what they have in Panik, and what type of player he is. If they are calling him up and clearing room on the 40-man roster it’s because they know he can be a piece of the puzzle that helps the Giants bring home the NL West this season. 

Panik has excellent strike-zone management and instincts, and if he stays within himself—continuing to play the way he has his entire professional career—he will be successful at the next level.

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The New York Mets outfield situation is a wide open competition heading into their official spring training full-squad workouts on February 22. At this point, the one player that seems to have locked up an everyday role is Curtis Granderson. 

The other three outfield positions seem to be coming down to a battle between Juan Lagares, Eric Young Jr., and Chris Young. The two players that are performing the best offensively will probably win the other two outfield spots.

Mets manager, Terry Collins, has said on numerous occasions that he likes Young Jr. in the leadoff spot in the order, and reiterated it this morning in his first televised press conference of the season via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com:

What Eric Young did for us last year, I thought saved us in the second half of last season — and not just the stolen bases. People forget about what a great job he did defensively in left field last year, the plays he made. 

If Young Jr. is the early favorite to be playing in left field and hitting leadoff, then that means the center field job will boil down to second year defensive phenom Lagares or Young.

Can Young beat out fan favorite Lagares for the starting center field job this spring?

Young has 20/20 potential. This is something that he has done multiple times at the major league level. While you can argue that Lagares has similar potential, many would agree that he just isn’t there yet. The problem with Young has been inconsistency. Since his breakout 2010 season, where he batted .257, hit 27 home runs, and stole 28 bases, his offensive numbers have been on the decline.

Even though his numbers seem to be on decline, when you scrape away the strikeouts, there is a guy that is ready to bust out offensively.

What has caused Young to struggle offensively since his back-to-back 20/20 seasons in 2010 and 2011? Is he simply on a decline, or is there really a chance that this guy is going to break out in 2014 for the Mets?

Let’s take a look at some numbers to see if we can figure this enigma out.

When looking at Young’s pitch types over the past few years, going back to 2010, there seems to be an interesting trend. Young has seen a dramatic increase in changeups, and seeing less sliders and curveballs. It seems that pitchers are trying to keep Young off balance by changing speeds, and not with a steady diet of breaking balls.

The next thing to look at is his plate discipline to see if he is making the proper adjustments.

When looking at his swing and contact rates, not much has really changed over the past few years that would lead one to believe that Young is in decline. Take a look at the table from Fangraphs.com below:

Young’s O-Swing percentage has actually increased, which means he is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than he did in 2010. His Z-Swing percentage has also increased—so overall, Young is swinging at more pitches.

But here is the interesting stat—Young’s contact rate has remained relatively flat over the past four seasons, and actually improved in 2012. This would mean that Young is doing a good job adjusting, as his contact rate has not dropped off significantly.

So if Young is swinging at more pitches, and making contact at the same rate as he did in his 2010 and 2011 season, where is the problem?

The answer can be found in his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Young’s BABIP has steadily declined, meaning that pitches that he is making contact with, and putting in play, are being reeled in as outs. Young’s ground ball percentage has decreased since 2010, while his line drive percentage has increased. His fly ball percentage has remained flat, and his HR/FB ratio has also slightly dipped.

What does all this mean?

Young is not a player that is on the decline. His contact rate has remained the same over the past four seasons. The major difference seems to be that he is hitting less ground balls and more line drives.

That doesn’t sound like a bad thing, but a line drive has better chance of being caught in flight for an out, and it prevents Young from using his speed to leg out some of those ground balls. His HR/FB ratio also dropped, meaning some of those fly balls have become outs.

Young has basically had some bad luck over the past two years. The Mets must have seen something similar when they decided to sign the 30-year-old outfielder to a one-year contract worth $7.25 million. It’s not likely they paid him that kind of money to be a fourth outfielder.

If Young can reverse his fortune and sustain his hot streaks, Mets fans will be pleasantly surprised with Young in 2014.

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The 2013 MLB All-Star Futures game will take place tomorrow at Citi Field. On the field will be some of the best and brightest young stars in the game in what should be a preview of future MLB All-Star games to come.

We have already seen a number of players from the 2012 Futures game break into the big leagues. That list of players includes the likes of Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, Jurickson Profar, Zack Wheeler and Wil Myers.

Oddly enough, none of those players were named the MVP of last year’s contest. The 2012 MVP was Detroit Tigers prospect Nick Castellanos. Castellanos has yet to crack the big league roster, in fact, he won’t even be playing in tomorrow’s All-Star Game. He was a vote-in candidate for the final roster spot,  but was beat out by Brandon Nimmo, the hometown favorite.

With last year’s MVP watching from home, here is a short list of players that have a shot to take home this year’s honors.

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Ever since 1965, the MLB has been having its annual amateur draft. Back when it first started, there were really three drafts every year—one in January for players who graduated in the winter, one in June for players who graduated in the spring and one in August for players who were committed to summer league amateur teams.

Every year since its inception, the draft has been surrounded by different storylines, and different chains of events unfold.

Every scout and general manager likes to think that the guys they are picking are “can’t miss,” that is, were put on this planet to do one thing—play baseball. The truth is, for every guy that is can’t miss, there are about 100 that do miss. It’s just the nature of the game.

There really is no way to accurately forecast which players will actually make it to the show some day. To be honest, a lot of it boils down to luck. In fact, it’s predominantly luck. However, nobody associated with the game will ever agree with that last statement.

Scouts will claim they have the secret formula to picking the needle out of the haystack, but the truth is, their formula is wrong nine times out of 10.

There is no secret formula when picking players out—just ask Mike Piazza or Albert Pujols.

Teams take leaps of faith and pay these young players fistfuls of money when they haven’t accomplished a single thing yet to justify it. They’re just a result of the secret formula. For fitting into the formula, they are sometimes made millionaires before ever stepping foot onto a professional baseball field.

It’s pretty crazy when you think about it.

However, in the crapshoot we call the MLB draft there are times when teams roll a seven or eleven and hit it big. Some drafts have had multiple All-Stars and Hall of Famers. Here is a list of the top five draft classes of all time.

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Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier that the Chicago Cubs have agreed to terms with Kyuji Fujikawa.

It was previously thought that the Angels were the front-runners for acquiring the Japanese closer.

Fujikawa should fill in nicely as the Cubs‘ closer for the 2013 season. In six seasons spent across the Pacific, Fujikawa has accumulated a total of 202 saves and pitched to the tune of a minuscule 1.36 ERA. How that translates in the big leagues is yet to be seen, but it is very promising.

Theo Epstein has stated that if there were sound investments available, the Cubs would be not be afraid to spend money this offseason. To that end, he seems to be keeping his word. He has already made moves to improve the starting rotation, and now he has taken strides to improve the bullpen.

So, does the signing of Fujikawa mark the end of Carlos Marmol in a Cubs uniform?

Marmol has served as the Cubs’ closer the past few seasons, but it certainly seems like the Cubs are ready to move in another direction. Marmol‘s fate with the team was all but sealed once the team tried to include him in a deal to bring Dan Haren to Chicago.

Now his future is almost definitely with another team. It should be an interesting week coming up with Winter Meetings kicking off on Monday, as the team will surely be trying to move Marmol. He and Alfonso Soriano should be at the center of any trade talks for the Cubs next week.

With some of the moves we have already seen this offseason, the Cubs seem determined to improve on their 101-loss season in 2012. 

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With yesterday’s non-tender deadline making Ian Stewart a casualty, the Chicago Cubs now have to take a very long look at their third base position.

Ian Stewart is a player who has never really lived up to expectations. Once rated No. 4 on Baseball America’s top prospect list, Stewart now finds himself looking for a job.

The move has also left the Cubs with two third basemen on the 40-man roster. They are Josh Vitters and Luis Valbuena. Junior Lake can also play third, but the organization has had him playing the outfield during winter ball as a tryout.

Are the Cubs ready to head into 2013 with Valbuena as their starting third baseman? Probably not.

Valbuena filled in for the injured Stewart in 2012 and could have seized the moment. Nobody was waiting in the wings, and he really didn’t have any pressure. All Valbuena had to do was outplay Stewart and he could have locked the job down.

Instead, he didn’t separate himself at all. He batted .219 with four home runs over a span of 265 at bats. He slightly edged out Stewart with his batting average, but in fewer at-bats, Stewart hit more home runs.

There really aren’t many top-flight options at the third base position in free agency this year. Mark Reynolds is a name that has to immediately turn some of the Cubs executives’ heads. While Reynolds is not known for his batting average, he would bring a tremendous amount of power to the lineup that is not generally recognized for its power.

Reynolds is probably best suited for an American League team so that they could split his time between playing third, first and designated hitter. However, he is definitely a serviceable third baseman. The Cubs can use him as a stop-gap until one of their top prospects, like Javier Baez, is ready.

With Anthony Rizzo hitting third, Alfonso Soriano hitting cleanup and Starlin Castro hitting fifth, the Cubs could slot Reynolds into the six-hole of their lineup and pack a serious punch.

Valbuena hasn’t shown to be much more than a .225 hitter with minimal power at this point. With Reynolds, the Cubs will get the same sort of low .200s batting average, but gives them the potential to add 20 to 30 home runs to the lineup.

The Cubs have the ability to pencil a .225 average, 25 home runs and 75 RBI into their lineup simply by signing Reynolds. Unless the Cubs work out some sort of trade this winter, Reynolds will be the only player that could bring that sort of offensive production to the third base position for them.

With the Winter Meetings a mere day-and-a-half away, it will be interesting to see how the Cubs address some of their gaping holes before 2013.

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As the New York Mets continue to hash out a deal with the current star of the team and face of the franchise, there is more and more speculation that the Mets will be looking to deal David Wright this winter.

Everyone who thought that David Wright would end his career as a Metropolitan is starting to show some doubt.

On one hand, you have Sandy Alderson saying he wants to build a team for the future from the minor league system. On the other hand, Alderson says he wants to sign David to a long term extension.

That sounds great, but the two ideas sort of contradict each other. For one, if you are building for the future and want to build the minor league system, then you should trade Wright and get as much in return as possible. Secondly, the organization’s top position player prospect, Wilmer Flores, also plays third base—the same position as the current face of the franchise.

The logical thing to do is to trade David Wright. But is Flores ready to fill his shoes?

Flores is coming off of his best season of professional baseball. He split time in 2012 between Single-A and Double-A ball, compiling a combined .300 batting average, 18 home runs, and 75 RBI. At 21 years old, he is finally showing what he can do offensively, leading to Miguel Cabrera comparisons.

Even more impressive, and a sign that Flores may be ready to fill the big shoes of David Wright, is his strikeout ratio. This kid is tough to strike out. In 547 at bats in 2012, he only struck out 60 times. This is an indicator that he has an excellent feel for the strike zone, doesn’t get fooled much and is very patient at the plate.

Flores has a short and compact swing. His hands get through the zone quickly and he drives through the ball. He makes consistent contact, and by putting the ball in play he keeps the pressure on the defense.

Flores is still only 21, and you can see that his body still has room for development. As he fills in, you can expect him to add 10-15 more home runs to his totals per year. Eventually, he should hit 25-to-30 home runs per year in the major leagues.

Flores is currently the No. 3 prospect in the New York Mets organization on mlb.com behind Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia. However, he is most likely going to jump over Familia very soon (if he hasn’t already).

Is Flores ready to fill David Wright’s shoes yet? The answer is no, but he is getting close, and they can only keep him down on the farm for so long. Expect Flores to join the big league team some time in 2013.

That being said, Flores’ development could still pave the way for Wright to be traded this offseason.  If the Mets could gain some young prospects and major league-ready players for David Wright, and have a Miguel Cabrera-type player waiting in the wings, a trade seems inevitable.

It should also be noted that Flores can also play second base if the Mets don’t open up a spot for him at third by trading Wright. Don’t say we didn’t give you advance notice, Daniel Murphy.

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Joe Panik was the San Francisco Giants first-round pick in the 2011 MLB draft. Many analysts scoffed at the pick because Panik didn’t have any outstanding physical attributes that made him stand out among the other prospects in 2011.

Generally speaking, first-round draft picks are primarily made up of five tool players that ooze baseball talent. They make scouts drool. After hearing the Giants’ pick, labeled a reach by many, the MLB draft announcers joked about how many pages down their draft board they had to go to find Panik’s name.

The joke will be on them when Panik is helping the San Francisco Giants defend their 2012 World Series title.

Panik is often an overlooked prospect because he doesn’t have the coveted five tools. He doesn’t make the scouts drool, but the bottom line is that the kid can flat out play ball.

His work ethic has been praised by previous coaches, including his former coach at St. John’s University who has said about Panik that “he epitomizes what you want in a ballplayer. He comes to play every day. He really understands what he needs to do to get better. You don’t have to tell Joe Panik twice. He knows.” 

Not drafted out of high school, Panik went on to St. John’s and proved he was worthy of being given the chance to follow in his childhood idol, Derek Jeter’s, footsteps.

Before leaving St. John’s, he left his mark in the school’s record books: ranked No.2 all-time in batting average with .370, No.5 all-time in home runs with 25, No.3 all-time in RBI with 157 and No.4 all-time in runs scored with 164.

He may not be a five tool player, but he has the luxury of being called a “pure hitter.”

In baseball, that is one of the best compliments you can ever receive. The names you think about when you hear the words “pure hitter” are names like Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose, Wade Boggs, Stan Musial, Rod Carew and Ted Williams. When calling someone a “pure hitter” it can’t be taken lightly.

After Panik was drafted, he signed very fast in order to get straight to work—another example of his excellent work ethic.

He started his career in short season Single-A with Salem-Keizer, and continued to tear the cover off the ball. He batted .341 and went on to win the Northwest League MVP award.

The Giants sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he played side-by-side with the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. For his efforts in the AFL, he was named to the AFL Rising Stars game.

In 2012, Panik spent the season with the San Jose Giants, and experienced a bit of a let down after his 2011 campaign. But it should be noted that not many players could have repeated the type of season he had in 2011.

Regardless, he still put up solid numbers, hitting .297 over 130 games. He played again this winter in the AFL, hitting .205 through 20 games.

What can we expect from Panik in the future?

Panik will inevitably get another spring training invite in 2013. He is already considered to be the most major-league ready middle infielder in the Giants organization. Many think he projects as a second baseman in the major leagues, but if Brandon Crawford continues to have offensive woes, he may challenge him at the shortstop position.

Although he projects to end up at second base, his glove is definitely serviceable at the shortstop position, as he has a career fielding percentage of .969.  He may never win a gold glove at the position, but what he lacks on defense will be made up offensively.

Crawford is a smooth-fielding shortstop, but he is practically an automatic out in the Giants lineup. Crawford might be hearing Panik’s footsteps as early as 2013 spring training.  

Offensively, Panik tends to make solid contact, and have very productive at bats. He works the counts into his favor and gets on base. He has a very fluid and pretty swing, which looks effortless. He is considered a gap-to-gap hitter and has some pop—he will project to hit about 15 to 20 home runs at the big-league level. He will be a top of the lineup hitter, eventually settling in the two hole.

Don’t be surprised if Panik really starts turning some heads in spring training.

He is already on the brink of breaking into the big leagues, as he ranks behind only Gary Brown on the Giants’ top prospects list as a position player. He will ultimately start the season in Double-A, but look for him to be quickly promoted to Triple-A, with hopes that he joins the big leagues sometime after the All-Star break.

Bold prediction

Joe Panik will go on to have the best major league career of any player in the Giants’ farm system right now.

He will be called up to replace the light-hitting Crawford at shortstop, but expect Panik to eventually settle in at second base and be an All-Star caliber player for years to come.

He will immediately adapt to the higher level of play due to his instincts and his offensive skill set.   

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The more and more I think about it, the more and more it makes sense—the Mets will be trading RA Dickey this winter. RA Dickey has been an excellent Mets player, but fans cannot let their emotions get in the way of what could be one of the smartest things this Mets team can do—sell high on Dickey.

The question: Who is in the market for a 20-game-winning pitcher who comes with a price tag of $5M? The answer: everyone.

Teams will be throwing players at the Mets left and right to try and swing a deal for the knuckleballer. The Mets have the luxury of sitting back and reviewing the offers as they all come in. Dickey will be awarded to the highest bidder. It’s that simple.

There are a couple of things the Mets have to do to ensure they don’t screw this up though. First off, they have to get an established player for Dickey. They would need an outfielder that can help the team right now, or it’s not worth dealing him. Secondly, the Mets should look to trade him to an American League team. Under no circumstances should they trade him within the division (and preferably out of the National League).

Keeping those limitations in mind, here are three trade scenarios that would make the Mets think long and hard about giving up Dickey this offseason.

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The General Manager of the New York Mets, Sandy Alderson, has made it clear that the No. 1 priority this offseason is to get David Wright signed to a long-term extension.

The Mets have activated David’s option for 2013, with hopes of hashing out the details of a new deal before the end of the winter. However, the question of whether or not the Mets should lock up Wright has created somewhat of a rift between fans.

Please don’t take the previous statement the wrong way. Mets fans absolutely love David Wright. He is to Mets fans what Derek Jeter is to Yankees fans. He is the face of the franchise. He plays the game with passion, stays out of trouble and he is a home grown star. He is a role model for the younger fans, and parents want their children to grow up and be like David. Oh, and he is still one of the premiere third baseman in the game today.

So after reading all that, why shouldn’t the Mets ensure David retires a Met with a long-term deal?

The answer isn’t as easy as it seems. The New York Post recently reported that the negotiations between David and the Mets have stalled, which definitely adds some uncertainty to the situation. It makes us wonder if the Mets are starting to get cold feet with regards to David’s long-term extension.

The issue at hand is if the Mets tie up a bunch of money with one player, it handcuffs them with respect to improving the team in the long run. Unless the Mets are going to be able to spend some money in 2014, they should consider trading him before the trade deadline (and not sign him to a long-term deal). However, if the Mets can build around Wright, then they should definitely extend him and make him the foundation to build on.

The good news is, the crippling contracts of Jason Bay and Johan Santana will be coming off the Mets’ books after the 2013 season. Once that happens, the Mets will be in a much better position to bring in some help for David Wright in the free agent market.

It is absolutely the right move for the Mets to sign their star to a long-term extension. With pitching prospects like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler looking to make a major impact, money to spend on free agents on the horizon and Wright as the foundation and leader of the team, the future for the New York Mets is starting to look bright again.   

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