The New Year’s festivities have died down after a long weekend of drinking and partying with friends and family.
2011 looks to be another promising year for the Minnesota Twins.
Another year of high expectations after a decade in which they have won six American League Central Division Titles.
So being 2011 now, I think it’s time to look back to 10 years ago when a young Twins squad was turning the corner to being contenders, and setting the stage for one of the best runs of success for the 50-year-old franchise.
After the 1991 World Series, the remaining years of in the 90’s nearly sunk the franchise. Gone were stars Hrbek, Puckett and Knoblauch.
Gone were the fans as well.
The Twins had the lowest payroll in baseball to finish up the 90’s. They were drawing around 12,000 fans a game, and finishing at the bottom of the standings on a yearly basis.
Terry Ryan, the Twins’ General Manager at the time, had been slowly building up the farm system. During the 90’s, he drafted numerous players who would impact the 2001 season. Brad Radke, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Jacque Jones, Matt Lawton, Corey Koskie, AJ Pierzynski and Latroy Hawkins were all among the fruits of his labor.
Ryan was also busy wheeling and dealing established veterans for young players that could help the squad in the future. Among the acquisitions were David Ortiz, Cristian Guzman, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse and Mark Redman.
The 2001 Twins began the season at a feverish pace. They sat at a 30-13 record after a May 22nd win against the Seattle Mariners. When the All-Star break hit, the Twins sat at 55-32, and were five games ahead of the pre-season favorite Cleveland Indians.
The Twins had multiple All-Stars for the first time in a while that season. Pitchers Joe Mays and Eric Milton both made the team for the first time, and shortstop Cristian Guzman appeared as well.
The second half of the season didn’t go quite as well for Tom Kelly’s final team. After the All-Star break, the Cleveland Indians outpaced the Twins by 11 games to win the division by six over the Twins. The Twins finished with a winning record that season at 85-77, and set the tone for the next nine years of Twins’ baseball.
The Twins that year showed a knack for throwing strikes, and playing great team defense behind the pitchers who would throw to contact. The team also was built more on speed, then power. Playing in the Metrodome payed dividends for the team, winning 47 games at home.
The Twins’ model for success led to back to back to back AL Central Titles in 2002, 2003, and 2004.
Also of Note
During the 2001 season, Terry Ryan made a decision that still has huge ramifications today. The overwhelming number one choice for the 2001 MLB Entry Draft was USC right handed pitcher Mark Prior.
Ryan went with a pick that many people thought was a money saving decision by going with hometown high school catcher Joe Mauer.
That “cost saving” pick has now turned into an eight year, $183 million dollar player.
The 2010 Minnesota Twins, while having a great season with a 94-68 record, won their 6th American League Central Title since 2002.
The post-season struggles of the Twins have been well documented. The Twins will need to have another stellar season to stave off the reloaded Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers.
The Twins should have the following list of New Year’s Resolutions in order to get back to the playoffs, and wreak some havoc should they make it there.
The Cliff Lee signing has put together one of the greatest pitching staffs in recent memory.
The last staff that looked this dominant on paper was the 1993 Atlanta Braves.
Like the Phillies, the Braves had recently signed the best free agent pitcher on the market in Greg Maddux. Maddux had just come off a 20 win season for the Chicago Cubs, and won his first of four consecutive NL Cy Young awards.
Maddux led a staff of four dominating pitchers in Atlanta in 1993. In addition to Maddux, there were also future Hall of Famers in Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Steve Avery rounded out the four-headed monster in Atlanta that dominated the NL that year with a record of 105-57.
Greg Maddux/ Cliff Lee
The pitching staff comparison starts with Lee and Maddux. Maddux was perhaps the best pitcher of his era. He was a “pitcher’s pitcher,” nicknamed the “Professor.” Maddux would paint the black of the plate consistently. Maddux was known for his control of the strike zone, and craftiness to get hitters out.
Lee has been the best control pitcher in baseball over the last three years. His K/BB ratio of 10.26 in 2010 was the second best of all time, falling only behind Bret Saberhagen in 1994. Fifth and ninth on the all time best K/BB seasons was none other than Maddux.
Maddux in 1993 won his second NL Cy Young. He went 20-10 on the year. He had an ERA of 2.36, with 197 strikeouts over 267.0 innings.
Lee went 12-9 last season, despite missing some time early in the season, and playing the majority of the season for one of the worst offensive teams in the American League.
Given the fact that Philadelphia scored 4.76 runs per game last season, compared to the Mariners 3.16 per game, the win total for Lee should obviously trend upward.
Season Prediction for Lee: 18-9, 3.05 ERA, 175 K’s over 215.0 innings.
John Smoltz/ Roy Halladay
John Smoltz compares most favorably with Roy Halladay.
Smoltz was the Robin to Maddux’s Batman on the 1993 Atlanta Braves. Gifted with great talent, and a devastating split finger fastball, Smoltz was the strikeout pitcher in the rotation.
After being plucked out of the Detroit Tigers organization in 1987, for then 36-year-old Doyle Alexander, Smoltz dominated for the Braves. He made his debut for the Braves in 1988 and proceeded to put together a Hall of Fame career.
During the 1993 season, Smoltz went 15-11. He had an ERA of 3.62 over 243.2 innings, and struck out 208 batters.
Halladay came to the Phillies last season, after spending 12 seasons in Toronto with the Blue Jays.
In his first season in Philadelphia, Roy “The Doc” Halladay, made an immediate impact.
Going 21-10 and winning the NL Cy Young would be enough for some pitchers to be happy, Halladay went a few steps further.
On May 29th, 2010, Halladay pitched a perfect game against the Florida Marlins. In his first ever playoff appearance, Halladay went on to pitch the second-ever postseason no-hitter, while facing the Cincinnati Reds.
Season Prediction for Halladay: 19-10, 2.65 ERA, 220 K’s over 230.0 innings.
Tom Glavine/ Cole Hamels
Tom Glavine was a crafty left-handed pitcher for the Atlanta Braves in 1993.
Glavine was a two sport star, being drafted early in the 1984 NHL Draft. Glavine was also drafted by the Atlanta Braves that year in the second round. He eventually decided on baseball, making his MLB Debut in 1987, marking the first season of the future 300 game winner.
Glavine, the 1995 World Series MVP and two time NL Cy Young winner, relied on location of an average fastball mixed in with great breaking pitches, most notably a circle changeup on the outside of the plate.
Glavine had his third straight 20 win season in 1993, going 22-6 that season. He had a 3.20 ERA over 239.1 innings to go along with his 120 K’s.
Cole Hamels, 26, was drafted by the Phillies in 2002 and made his debut in 2006.
He has been instrumental in turning the Phillies into a National League powerhouse. His most notable accomplishment was winning the 2008 World Series MVP, while pitching the Phillies to the title.
Hamels, like Glavine, is a left-handed pitcher who spots a good fastball, and relies on a dominating circle changeup to get batters out.
Over the second half of 2010, Hamels may have been the best pitcher in the NL. Despite an underwhelming 12-11 record, this was not indicative of his season. He also sported only a 3.06 ERA over 208.2 innings with 211 K’s.
Season Prediction for Hamels: 16-10, 3.30 ERA, 210 K’s over 200.0 innings.
Steve Avery/ Roy Oswalt
Steve Avery, though many forget, was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League from 1991-1993. His unexpected and quick decline from dominance after the 1993 season tends to overshadow his accomplishments in the early 90s.
Avery, a left-hander, was the 1991 ALCS MVP. He had a great 1993 season, which was his best as a pro. He went 18-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 223.1 innings to go with his 125 K’s.
Oswalt came to Philadelphia last season from the Houston Astros, after being one of the more dominant pitchers in the NL over the last decade.
The right-handed Oswalt still has electric stuff and could be one of the best fourth starters in MLB history. The 2005 NLCS MVP had another great season in 2010. He went a combined 13-13 between the Phillies and Astros. He had a 2.76 ERA over 211.2 innings with 193 K’s.
Season Prediction for Oswalt: 17-8, 2.90 ERA, 190 K’s over 210.0 innings.
Overall
The Phillies now have, with all respect to San Francisco, the best starting staff in all of baseball. Given the top five offense that they can also field, the Phillies should role through the NL East in 2011.
The Phillies in 2010 won the NL East with a ML best record of 97-65. This was quite impressive, due to the extended time missed by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and others throughout the season.
The Phillies, if healthy, have one of the better lineups in the NL, despite losing Jason Werth to the Nationals this offseason.
If the rotation stays healthy, the top four pitchers could win 70-75 games all by themselves. Not to mention, Joe Blanton, as a fifth starter, won 9 games last season. Add that to the bullpen wins and you have a team that could potentially win 110 games next season.
2011 Philadelphia Phillies season prediction: Since we are doing a 1993 Atlanta Braves comparison, I think 105-57 season is a good barometer for the the 2011 Phillies.
The winter meetings have seen a lot of action so far.
Carl Crawford signed with the Boston Red Sox yesterday for seven years and 142 million dollars. This was in the wake of the huge contract given to Jayson Werth a week earlier from the Washington Nationals.
After the top two hitters on the market have signed, the remaining players have a starting point in negotiations and there are still plenty of quality hitters remaining for teams looking to fill out their lineups.
Pavano, a Type-A free agent, declined arbitration from the Twins and would give them two compensation draft picks in the 2011 MLB draft should he depart.
It comes as something of a surprise that the Twins are such heavy players in re-signing Pavano. They already have Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and Duensing under contract for next season. The Twins also have Kyle Gibson waiting in the minors for an opportunity.
Pavano should be able to demand close to $10 million per season on his new contract. What may be a sticking point for the Twins is the third year that Pavano wants. If Pavano is willing to accept a two-year deal, the Twins should pull the trigger.
This signing may allow them to package a couple of their other starters, and possibly make a bigger splash with a trade. Zack Greinke is a possibility—though not a likely one, as Kansas City is unlikely to trade within the division.
The Twins may be feeling pressure to bring back Pavano after the big splashes already made by the Chicago White Sox (Adam Dunn, re-signing Paul Konerko) and the Detroit Tigers (Victor Martinez).
The 2011 Major League Baseball season seems a long ways away, but it is never too early to take a glance at potential impact rookies for next season.
Jeremy Hellickson, 23, a pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays, leads a group of 10 players who are ready to make an impact on their respective teams in 2011.
The Minnesota Twins offseason got quite the jump-start on Black Friday.
News came across the wire that the Twins were the highest bidder, and now have 30 days of exclusive contract negotiations with Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nishioka, 26, is the reigning batting champ in Japan, and a sleek fielding middle infielder.
The winning bid from the Twins came in at over $5 million. If a contract can’t be negotiated within 30 days, the Twins will get their bid back.
The Nishioka bid certainly puts the nail in the coffin for any chance of Orlando Hudson returning to the Twins next season. Hudson was already on the outs despite being offered arbitration last week by the Twins. Hudson is a Type B free agent and the Twins will receive a compensatory pick for him leaving.
Assuming the Twins sign Nishioka, which some believe will be in the three-year, $15 million range, the middle infield will be completely turned over from last season. J.J. Hardy would almost certainly be on the outs as well, with possibly Alexi Casilla taking over at shortstop or second base.
Nishioka has been labeled “Ichiro of the infield” after a season where he led Japan with a .346 batting average, 121 runs, 206 hits and 287 bases. All this in only 144 games. He is the first player to reach the 200-hit plateau since Ichiro over a decade ago.
It may be prudent not to expect someone as talented as Ichiro to be playing the infield at Target Field next season. Nishioka may bring impressive numbers to the USA, but Ichiro’s shoes are big ones to fill. Talent is only one part of a recipe for success in America. Adapting to America’s culture, and living up to an entire nation’s expectations have proved too great for many former Japanese stars. Case in point: Kaz Matsui.
Other News
In addition to the Twins offering arbitration to Hudson, they also offered arbitration to pitchers Carl Pavano and Jesse Crain.
Carl Pavano was a workhorse for the Twins last season, going 17-11 and pitching the Twins to an AL Central title. He accepted arbitration last season and made $7 million last season for the Twins. Pavano is unlikely to accept arbitration this season as he is almost assured to receive a multi-year deal from a ball club.
Jesse Crain also was offered arbitration, and is also unlikely to accept. He is a Type B free agent and will certainly entertain multi-year deals from many teams looking to bolster their bullpen.
Later today, the results of voting for the American League and National League Manager of the Year will be announced. I am here to tell you why Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire deserves the award following the 2010 MLB season.
Since this is a regular season award, Gardenhire’s postseason record is not taken into account for this award.
Heading into the season, the Twins were thought to be top contenders in the AL Central. They were coming off a 2009 Central Division Title and were bringing back nearly all the same players, while adding Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, and JJ Hardy.
My question is this: If I were to tell you the Twins would not have Joe Nathan pitch one inning in 2010, and Justin Morneau would not take an AB for the second half of the season, where would you predict the Twins to finish in the American League?
If you answered “AL Central Title, and second best record in the American League,” you would be correct. If you guessed “missed the playoffs,” you underestimated the ability of Ron Gardenhire throughout the 162 game marathon.
Gardenhire guided the Twins to 94 wins in 2010. But the most impressive stat is the Twins’ record in the second half of the season (mostly without Justin Morneau). They went 47-26 after the All-Star Break. That includes a 2-8 record after clinching the division.
They finished nine games better then any AL team over the second half, with the Yankees trailing them.
In the past, Gardenhire has been overlooked for the award, possibly because of the expectations for the Twins to be contenders year in and year out.
To be able to succeed in spite of those lofty expectations is a feat in itself.
In 2006 and 2009, Gardenhire brought his club back from huge deficits to become division winners. In 2006 the Twins were in first place on the last day of the year, but that was the only day the led the AL Central. In 2009 he led to Twins to a dramatic comeback from seven games down in September, and a win in game 163 to finally oust the Tigers, once again winning the Central.
Those performances were overlooked year after year. This time he may suffer the same fate, with the Cinderella Texas Rangers and their manager Ron Washington possibly stealing votes from Gardenhire.
If I had a team to run and a division to win, I’d hand my club over to Ron Gardenhire in a heartbeat.
The Minnesota Twins start their 50th season in Minnesota next season.
I thought it might be fun to choose the best starting lineup possible from the last 50 years. I also included the top five pitchers for a starting rotation and a closer.
There were a few rules to make the list. They must have either been a Twins player for at least five years, or done something extraordinary on the field (such as a World Series victory, MVP award, batting title, etc.).
They also must have spent most of their time at the position they played at, so I wasn’t allowed to DH someone who wasn’t a designated hitter during their time in Minnesota.
There have been many important days in Twins history. Oct. 25th, 1987 (first World Series victory), Oct. 27th, 1991 (second World Series), and June 5th, 2001 (drafting of Joe Mauer) spring to mind for many fans. But the absolute most important date had nothing to do with winning a world series or drafting a future hall of fame catcher. The day in question is July 3rd, 2000.
The franchise was at a crossroads. The Twins hadn’t had a winning season since 1992. In 1995 the hero of the franchise (Kirby Puckett) was forced into retirement after being struck in the jaw by an errant fastball, and subsequent glaucoma the following spring.
They had lost their only remaining true star, Chuck Knoblauch, after a trade to the Yankees following the 1997 season. The 1999 season saw the Twins finish in last place once again.
The Twins were sporting a $17 million dollar payroll, and the attendance barely topped one million for the season. Roughly 12,000 fans a game.
And on top of all this, Carl Pohlad was open to the idea of contraction. This would wipe the Twins franchise off the face of the earth, while putting about 150 million into Pohlad’s pocket.
This was all changed on July 3rd, 2000, when the previously stingy Twins extended Brad Radke’s contract. Radke signed for a then franchise record of four years and $36 million dollars. It was a vote of confidence for fans all over Twins territory, and signaled the change of culture which led to a decade of excellence.
If you look at where the Twins were to where they are today it is quite remarkable.
2000 Twins 69-93 – 1,000,760 fans – $17.5 Million dollar payroll – Played in Metrodome – Highest payed player at time was Radke making $3.5 Million dollars.
2010 Twins 94-68 – 3,223,640 fans – $97.5 Million dollar payroll – Played in newly opened Target Field – Highest payed player was Justin Morneau who made $15 Million.
This dramatic turn around has many reasons: The great drafts, home grown talent, good management, piranha’s, etc. But without the re-signing of Brad Radke a decade ago. Who knows what history may have been written for the Twins. Would there be that shiny new ballpark in downtown Minneapolis? Would there be six division title banners? Would there even be a Twins team? I can’t honestly answer that.
The New Year’s festivities have died down after a long weekend of drinking and partying with friends and family.