Kuzul

The MLB futures for the 2011 American League MVP are especially intriguing with some big names finding new teams and figuring to contend for the coveted award. Let’s handicap the top 10.

1. Miguel Cabrera

Sportsbook odds: +400

Miggy is well on his way to a Hall of Fame career. The Tigers slugger has at least 103 RBI in all seven of his full pro seasons, at least 30 homers in six of seven full pro seasons and a .320 batting average or better in five of his last six seasons. 2010 was his best year yet, as he set career highs with 38 homers and drove in 127 runs.

He should have better protection with Victor Martinez joining Detroit’s lineup, so Cabrera is a fine pick to win the AL MVP.

VERDICT: Contender

2. Adrian Gonzalez

Sportsbook odds: +500

The MLB betting community is finally about to find out how good this guy is. Adrian Gonzalez was a perennial 40-homer threat playing in baseball’s worst hitter’s park in a popgun lineup with the San Diego Padres. Now he goes to Boston? Scary. On the road the last two years over 602 at-bats, basically a full season, A-Gonz hit .311 with 48 homers and 122 RBI. That’s exactly the type of year I expect him to have.

VERDICT: Contender

3. Evan Longoria

Sportsbook odds: +700

It’s only a matter of time before Evan Longoria wins an MVP award. The 25-year-old is the total package and still has room to get better. Still—he hasn’t vaulted into the same echelon as a slugger like Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has bested Longoria’s numbers every year, and even he still hasn’t won an MVP yet. So Longoria may have to wait a bit longer.

VERDICT: Sleeper

4. Josh Hamilton

Sportsbook odds: +800

There’s no doubting Josh Hamilton’s all-world talent. He put it all together last year, hitting .350 with 30-plus homers and 100 RBI in just 133 games. But Hamilton hasn’t posted back-to-back healthy seasons in his career. His games played over four seasons: 90, 156, 89, 133. We can’t trust him this year.

VERDICT: Pretender

5. Joe Mauer

Sportsbook odds: +1000

The 2009 AL MVP is probably the best pure hitter on the planet—but his 28-homer MVP season really looks like an outlier. He has one other 13-homer season and has single-digit homer totals every other year. I’m not sure he has the power to steal the award a second time.

VERDICT: Pretender

6. Mark Teixeira

Sportsbook odds: +1200

Tex only batted .256 last season, but you know you’re good when 33 homers and 108 RBI qualify as a “down” season. He still topped Josh Hamilton in both those categories. Teixeira is young enough—31 on April 11—that his career year could still be ahead of him. He has a shot at the MVP this year.

VERDICT: Contender

7. Alex Rodriguez

Sportsbook odds: +1500

Now 35 years old, A-Rod is almost certainly past his prime. He’s also missing more time than he used to as his creaky hip starts to get the better of him. Still, he drove in a whopping 125 runs with no one even noticing him last year. We can’t count him out of the MVP race just yet.

VERDICT: Sleeper

8. Robinson Cano

Sportsbook odds: +1800

A third straight Yankee to appear on this sports betting blog list, Cano was the MVP choice over Josh Hamilton in many people’s eyes last year. He’s far more durable and an outstanding hitter at a traditionally thin offensive position. His game reached a new height last season and could stay there.

VERDICT: Contender

9. Justin Morneau

Sportsbook odds: +2000

Whenever Justin Morneau plays, he contends for the MVP award. He had a monster season going in 2010 before a concussion derailed him. But we have to relegate him to sleeper status for 2011 since we can’t know for sure that he’ll return from the serious injury without a hitch.

VERDICT: Sleeper

10. Kevin Youkilis

Sportsbook odds: +2500

If people voted on who they simply wanted to win the award, Youk would probably win. He’s a beloved player for his team play, batting eye, power and defense. But are there too many cooks in the kitchen? He has to contend with MVP candidates Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and 2008 winner Dustin Pedroia on his own team.

VERDICT: Sleeper

American League MVP free pick

Miguel Cabrera’s numbers are difficult to ignore, and guys like Longoria and Cano seem ready to make the next jump. However, I’m a believer in Adrian Gonzalez. He’s a phenomenal talent long overdue to be recognized as one of the game’s best. I think it all comes together for him in 2011.

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The 2010-11 offseason has been a busy one in Major League Baseball. After a huge free-agent signing yesterday shifted the MLB futures significantly overnight, it’s time to take a look at the current top 10.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (+160)

After snagging Cliff Lee for five years and $100 million last night, the Phillies vaulted into World Series front-runner status at virtually every sportsbook. With a rotation of Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the Phillies could have four guys win 15-20 games. Unbelievable.

2. New York Yankees (+500)

Unless you count Russell Martin, the Bronx Bombers haven’t joined the big spending party yet, watching their rival Red Sox get stronger. But that doesn’t mean this team still isn’t stacked. With Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Alex Rodriguez part of an aging nucleus, however, bettors may be better off picking a younger, higher-upside team.

3. Boston Red Sox (+600)

The Phillies are the National League’s big winner but perhaps no team has improved as much as the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Carl Crawford got the biggest headlines but Adrian Gonzalez, one of baseball’s best-kept secrets while in San Diego, is the real key to Boston’s MLB betting hopes.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (+1,500)

The Cardinals are consistently contenders, not because of their depth but because of their talented pillars. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday anchor the offense (with Lance Berkman joining up to fill the Ryan Ludwick role); Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter anchor the pitching staff. Barring injuries, it’s almost impossible not for St. Louis to contend.

5. San Francisco Giants (+1,500)

Where’s the love for the defending champs? It looks like the oddsmakers view 2010 as a fluke. We can at least admit that it’s rare for a team to win the World Series with such a patchwork offense. Then again, pitching wins championships and the Giants still have it in spades.

6. Detroit Tigers (+2,000)

The Tigers sixth after an 81-81 season? Hmm. I know Victor Martinez is a solid addition but giving the Tigers better betting odds than Texas, Cincinnati or Atlanta seems excessive.

7. Cincinnati Reds (+2,000)

Here’s a team that could give you good bang for your buck. The Reds have the reigning National League MVP in Joey Votto, who’s joined by a solid young lineup that plays outstanding defense, If one of the Reds’ young pitchers can step up, look out.

8. Minnesota Twins (+2,000)

It’s a given to put the Twinkies on this list, as they’re competitive every year. Bettors should watch Justin Morneau’s health closely before making their wagers, however; comebacks from concussions are unpredictable.

9.  Texas Rangers (+2000)

Is this the best value pick in the entire top 10? This team reached the World Series and almost all its top players—Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Neftali Feliz and so on—are either in their primes or not even there yet. It hurts that the Rangers couldn’t retain Cliff Lee but maybe they’ll look at converting Feliz to a starter.

10. Atlanta Braves (+2,000)

Like the Giants, the Braves are contenders because of their outstanding pitching. But Atlanta has much greater offensive potential. Jayson Heyward will only get better and the under-appreciated, power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla was a nice offseason grab.

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For fantasy baseball and MLB picks alike, here are Friday’s MLB news, notes, and MLB odds.

Reds vs. Nationals

Livan Hernandez is 2-7 lifetime to Cincinnati with a 5.64 ERA.

Indians vs. White Sox

Cleveland is 4-18 -17.1 units off a win this season. However, the Pale Hose are 3-13 -12.7 units to an AL team with a .320 or worse OBP.

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Clay Buchholz has won his last three starts and sports a 1.29 ERA in that span. Baltimore is 14-5 the last two years +15.1 units if they lost 15 or more of their previous 20 contests. Boston has won eight straight Buchholz starts.

NY Yankees vs. Toronto

A.J. Burnett is 22-9 career at Yankee Stadium. Brett Cecil is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts.

Marlins vs. Mets

Anibal Sanchez has won his last three starts, sporting a 0.90 ERA

Cubs vs. Astros

Felipe Paulino has a horrid 2-10 career mark at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, Carlos Zambrano is 13-7 in his career to Houston with a 2.54 ERA.

The Cubs are 4-17 -20.7 units to NL teams averaging 4.3 or fewer runs per game.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks

Arizona is 1-12 this season -11.9 units after allowing two runs or less in consecutive games. They are 3-17 this season off consecutive losses.

Angels vs. Mariners

Joe Saunders is 7-1 lifetime to Seattle including 5-0 at Safeco Field with a 2.41 ERA.

Braves vs. Dodgers

In 17 career decisions, Clayton Kershaw has a 2.64 ERA at Dodgers Stadium.

Here are the overnight lines for Friday, June 4, 2010.

Source: SportsBook

Top expert picks on today’s card is from the winningest service of all-time, GodsTips led by Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy.

A Wise Guy on Anaheim makes it winning MLB days 14-of-20 from the winningest handicapper ever. Then we cap it off with our only NBA play on the Lakers, never in doubt. Get the NHL Game of the Year for Friday, plus a Wise Guy on the total. It’s a rare case of Wise Guys on the side and total. We also have four MLB Major plays and three, yes three Wise Guys. All are small favorites or underdogs. Oh and we have our first two WNBA picks this season. That’s 11 winners in three sports. Click now to purchase.

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