Kuzul

The playoffs are when legends are made. You can be a great player in the regular season, but if you fail in the playoffs, then you will be served a cold dish of doubt and ridicule.

Nobody wants to be Mr. May.

Just ask Alex Rodriguez. Until last year he was considered Mr. Regular Season, a choke artist, a joke, and overpaid. He still may be overpaid, but he has a ring on his finger to keep him happy.

Every year there are a new crop of players with something to prove, either to themselves or to the baseball world in order to solidify their stance in the history of the game.

Here are the players with the most to prove in this postseason.

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I have to preface this by saying that I have totally and fully jumped onto the Sabermetric bandwagon. I know I’m late with it, but I am hooked.

There is still a lot I have to learn in the intricacies of the endless list of stats that didn’t exist 15 years ago (for instance the difference between WPA-win probability added and VORP-Value over a replacement player, they seem like they are measuring the same thing).

Anyway, I had to preface with that because I have become fascinated with one stat in particular, clutch.

That is it, it is as simple as that. A single stat that can tell you whether a player is at a higher level in high-pressure situations than he normally is.

While watching the Reds play Tuesday night and saw them come back from yet another deficit (only to lose it in the bottom of the ninth unfortunately), I couldn’t help but notice how much better their hitter seemed to be in high pressure situations.

This season it seems I have seen countless two-out RBI, eighth and ninth inning runs, and heroic walk-offs from the team with an incredible 10 last at-bat victories (out of 23 so far), and two handfuls of late-inning comebacks.

So, I made a B-line for my latest addiction (fangraphs.com) to check out their clutch stats.

I found that Joey Votto is the fourth most clutch player in the league so far this year, meaning that his game elevates the fourth most in pressure situations, not that he is the fourth best player in pressure situations.

He comes out with a “clutch” rating of 1.05, meaning that after you subtract the WPA/LI from the WPA/pLI of a player you get that number (much more thoroughly explained here ).

Looking even further, we see that Cincinnati is the second most clutch team in the Majors, behind Detroit. 

This all makes sense when you watch the Reds, who at times can come out lethargic in the first few innings. But as the heat is put on them, they respond in a big way, and come up with hits in big situations.

Now, that being said, I sat Wednesday afternoon discretely updating my phone in class, hoping for the game ending double-play that was sure to bail out the latest version of the Reds collapsing bullpen.

It never came. The ‘pen gave up a wonderful performance by Mike Leake and a sure win (Atlanta had a 0.5% chance of winning going into the ninth) with a seven run debacle.

I was distraught over how non-clutch our pitching staff has come to be. It seems the Reds are unable to close out a game without Coco Cordero or Nick Masset (more in April than May) making me yell at the TV.

It seems that the Reds rank eighth worst in the majors in clutch pitching. They are sitting at -0.90, worse than their average pitching in high-pressure situations.

For whatever reason, there is a feeling of pomp and swagger in the dugout when Cincy is down heading into the late innings. But in the bullpen there is a feeling of fear and ineptitude when they are playing in a close game in the later innings.

While the clutch hitting of the Reds is to be celebrated, the anti-clutch bullpen may be something to worry about in the Queen City.

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There are three things that any given ball club can do in order to give it a fighting chance at making the playoffs: score more runs than you allow, have a defense that is not inept, and beat the teams in your division.

Scoring more runs than you allow obviously gives you a game-winning formula night in and night out. It is a simple and obvious concept, but it is hard to execute.

Having a defense that will help you more than hinder you is a bit harder.  You will eventually have to weigh the pros of having a weak defender who is a good hitter, especially in the National League with no DH to bail you out.

Beating the teams within your division gives you a leg up on the competition and makes it so you don’t have to hope that someone else beats your rivals to regain games in the L column.

Do those three things and chances are you will be in the playoff hunt come August and September.

The 2010 version of the Cincinnati Reds are doing all of these things, giving the people of Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky optimism for a competitive ball club.

First, the new and improved Redlegs have a knack for scoring runs.  They are 10th in the majors with 188 runs plated through 39 games this season, which is good for fifth in the National League. 

They have allowed 185 runs so far this year, and while it is not much of a difference, it is at least a positive difference.  Last year they scored 673 runs while allowing 723.

Being in the top ten in runs scored is definitely a precursor for postseason aspirations, as last year the lowest a playoff team was ranked in runs scored was 18th (St. Louis).

This all comes at a time when the Reds’ bats and arms are hitting their stride together, and when a team is hitting and pitching well, it is unlikely they will go down easily.

While they are scoring more than they are letting up, the bullpen could end up being a liability.  They are currently in the bottom third of the NL in reliever ERA at 4.74, while the rival Cardinals are at a stingy 2.68. This could end up being a cause for concern.

Second, a team must play defense as to not screw up what their pitching and offense has gotten them.

The Reds have the fourth fewest errors in the Majors, and are tied for the fewest in the National League with 16.

They do have some players that could end up being defensive liabilities if they are to get fatigued, like their 35-year-old left side of the infield in Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera, both of whom have lost a step in their advancing age. 

But so far, the defense has helped contribute to their winning ways, especially in Saturday’s win on a play at the plate.

Finally, there is possibly the most important thing to do: beating the teams within your division.

The Reds are 17-10 against teams in their division, but are only 4-5 against the Cardinals; the team currently looking up from second place at the Reds. 

While they do have good division numbers, the most important numbers are against the team that poses the biggest threat to knocking the Reds from atop the NL Central mountain they now see themselves sitting on, the Cardinals.

So for the Reds to continue their hot streak that has gotten them to this point, they must continue to pitch well and hope their defense can stay effective. They must also begin to beat good teams more often in order to stay ahead of them in the standings.

With the hot start of the virtually unknown Mike Leake and the future promises of flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman, the Cincinnati fans finally have a bright future to look forward too, only it seemingly came years early (not that you will get any complaints from the Cincinnati faithful).

So go out to Great American Ballpark and enjoy the first place Reds, hopefully for a while.  And keep your fingers crossed that they will get to play into October in The Queen City, it would definitely be a welcome sight.

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