Kuzul

The Detroit Tigers went into this spring with the intention of filling their missing rotation spot with one of a handful of young, internal candidates.

However, none of the internal candidates separated themselves from the rest, and in fact four of these candidates flamed out and are no longer in the running.

The two remaining candidates, Duane Below and Drew Smyly, also have knocks against them.

Below has struggled with his control, and in his most recent appearance was wilder than a coed on spring break.

Smyly has looked solid and, most importantly, has thrown a lot of strikes (65 of his 88 pitches). But he only has four appearances, which is only one more than some of the other candidates who have been out of the running for weeks.

So, with less than a week left before the team heads north, the Tigers are in a precarious position.

On the one hand, they probably need another starter, and one from outside the organization.

On the other hand, they do have some time. Given the off-days in the schedule, the fifth starter likely won’t see his first appearance until April 14, giving the Tigers two full weeks to swing a trade.

Here are five potential fifth starter candidates.

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If you are like me, you have been eagerly following the Detroit Tigers‘ search for their fifth starter.

This is the fourth in my series.

The Plot Thickens

Heading into this spring, it seemed as though the Tigers had some strong internal candidates for the job.

They had the young phenom in Jacob Turner.

They had the fireballing lefty in Casey Crosby.

They had the enigmatic, yet talented Andy Oliver.

And they had three relatively unknown soft-tossing lefties in Drew Smyly, Duane Below and Adam Wilk.

At first, it seemed like this would be a very hard decision, but for all the right reasons. All six candidates started out strongly.

But one by one, they fell by the wayside.

First, Turner flamed out and, thanks to nagging injuries, was sent to Triple A camp.

Next, Crosby got a case of the wilds, and was likewise shipped.

And just as it appeared that Oliver had separated himself from the rest, he came crashing down as well and is also no longer in the running.

Wilk had some strong moments, but ultimately was not ready for the job.

This leaves just Below and Smyly as internal candidates for the job.

Duane Below

Below started out strong like the rest, but has definitely come back down to earth.

Below’s most recent appearance was also his worst, allowing four walks, a home run and three earned runs.

Below still is a strong candidate to make the team, as he has value as a reliever as well, but he has a terrible ERA (5.17) and does not have overwhelming stuff.

Personally, I see Below as a poor man’s Mike Maroth, although he does throw slightly harder.

Below needs to have pinpoint control in order to be effective, and this spring he just hasn’t been.

Drew Smyly

Smyly certainly has the look of the last man standing.

He is the only one of the candidates that didn’t see his ERA balloon out of control, he is the only one that hasn’t had at least one terrible performance and he has only allowed seven hits all spring.

He also is the only one that has consistently thrown strikes, as 65 of his 88 pitches have been.

That being said, he had his worst performance in his most recent start, giving up three earned runs and two walks as well as his first home run of the spring.

It also appears that the Tigers have been the least interested in his performance, giving him only four appearances all spring. That pales in comparison to Below (seven).

So only two conclusions could be drawn from this.

Either the Tigers have been so impressed with Smyly that they have all but given him the job, or they don’t really think he is a strong candidate and don’t want to waste opportunities to let others wow them.

It certainly is a weird situation.

Conclusion

Based solely on the numbers, this job should be Smyly’s to lose. But given that he only has pitched in four games, I don’t think that the Tigers are sold on him.

Personally, I think the Tigers are still looking at a trade for the fifth starter. But if they do decide to stay internal, there really is no sound argument why it shouldn’t be Smyly.

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Each year we see it.

The fringe players that we are rooting for, and are optimistic to see break out, start to become weeded out and dropped from team consideration.

In the movie “Major League”, this moment is captured by red tags that signify that the manager wants to see them, to tell them that they will not make the club.

Sometimes this move is economics, sometimes it is luck, and sometimes it’s just a numbers game.

This year is no different.

Here are the three Tigers that are in danger of not making this team.

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First off, this article will not be focusing on Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Justin Verlander.

Those three are superstars, and there is no reasonable reason to believe that all of the above will not perform at their usual spectacular level.

Obviously there is always the threat of injuries, but barring that threat, those three will likely be near the top of all of baseball at their positions.

No, this article is about the other guys. The players who have shown glimpses of promise, but do not have a track record that makes their level of performance a given this year.

Obviously we can all be wishful thinkers, but is there a good reason why some players are poised to break out this year?

Here are five Tigers players that must get off to a fast start in order for Detroit to reach their goal of a World Series victory.

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Something struck me this morning.

I was taking a look at the American League standings and I realized that the New York Yankees were rained out last night against the Boston Red Sox.

Now that doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it got me thinking about how interesting it is that New York is ending their season by playing a very tough schedule that includes Tampa Bay and Boston.

Basically, this means that the Yankees have been playing meaningful games for quite a while.

Next, take a look at the Tigers‘ schedule. Over the last month, they have been dominant. But they have been dominant against sub-par opponents.

While Boston, New York, Tampa and Texas have been battling rivals, playoff-caliber teams and the weather, the Tigers have been beating up on teams that will be watching the postseason from their couches.

Now, I know the argument. The Tigers shouldn’t be penalized for winning against teams that they are scheduled against. And sure, the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox were in contention as late as a couple weeks ago, and the Tigers’ dominance almost singlehandedly eliminated both teams.

But this situation is bringing about the age-old question of what makes the best situation for a team to be coming from upon entering the playoffs.

Some say that it is best for a team to be playing tough, meaningful games right up until the playoffs begin. The logic being that they are more “battle tested” than others and are geared up psychologically for the grind of the playoffs.

Others say that it is best for a team to be well-rested and that the playoffs are a different beast altogether and momentum and being battle tested are a myth.

Both schools of thought have examples that shoot them to shreds.

Look at the Minnesota Twins and Oakland A’s. The Twins are almost always battling until the end, most notably two years ago against Detroit and even in 2006 when they topped Detroit to win the American League Central crown on the last weekend.

Both Twins teams fizzled badly in the playoffs.

The A’s, in the early-and-mid parts of the last decade, were similarly dealt with in the playoffs despite being battle tested.

Now look at the Tigers in 2006. They essentially limped into the playoffs after having a huge second-half collapse, yet still made it to the World Series.

On the other hand, last year’s San Fransisco Giants had to scrap their way into the playoffs and carried that scrappyness all the way to the title.

But two years ago, the Yankees ran away with their division and then steamrolled their way to a championship with a fully-rested stable of players.

So you see, there really isn’t a tried and true recipe for postseason success. In the end, it all comes down to who is hot at the right time. The regular season carries no discernible bearing on postseason success other than to allow you the right to participate based on your record.

Personally, I think that the playoffs are a colossal crap-shoot that are impossible to predict.

And that is precisely why baseball’s postseason is one of the most exciting times in all of sports!

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