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MLB Rumors: Predicting Where the Top Free Agents Will Land

The MLB hot stove has officially begun to warm up.

Perhaps the most exciting time in the entire year for diehard fans and the most stressful for those working in front offices, the free-agent frenzy has great influence on the next season and beyond.

With SP Cliff Lee undoubtedly the biggest prize on the market, teams will be looking to make franchise-shaping moves in the coming weeks. While some teams may have more financial resources than others, sometimes avoiding dishing out the lucrative multi-year deal can be a better investment than reeling in a big-name bust like the Mets did with Jason Bay last season.

 

1. Cliff Lee, SP

As aforementioned, Lee will be top dog of the group. Expecting to command a contract that is very similar to the one CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees (seven years, $161 million), Lee’s demands could far exceed just about every team’s payroll except for one.

You guessed it, the Yankees.

While Lee’s wife has stated that she loves the time they spent in Texas, the re-invented lefty is 32 years old, and this will be his only chance to cash in on the big bucks. If the Yankees come knocking with an offer that trumps every other team’s, it’s hard to imagine him saying no.

Prediction: New York Yankees

 

2. Carl Crawford, OF

The closest thing to a five-tool player in the entire bunch, Crawford’s unique skill set should prove to be worth over $100 million to his new club. An original member of the Tampa Bay club, the only team he has ever known, will let him walk out the door.

While some have speculated that the Red Sox could possibly make a run, perhaps Crawford’s tenure in the AL East has led him to be somewhat calloused toward the rest of the clubs. Additionally, the Sox do not hand out long-term deals too readily, and have to worry about far too many other spots (catcher, namely) to think about throwing the big bucks at the other CC.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

3. Jayson Werth, OF

Agent Scott Boras is doing his best to sell Werth as this year’s version of Matt Holliday, but he’s going to have a tough time on that one. The Phillies took a chance on Werth prior to the 2008 season, and the bearded beast has provided a phenomenal return on investment.

There is somewhat of a hesitancy to shell out a large contract to Werth, who really didn’t do much in his career prior to his tenure in Philadelphia, but someone is certain to overpay. While Werth is certainly a talented player, his home ballpark (Citizens Bank) is considered a bandbox, and his power numbers may fall off with his new team…unless he lands back in the division where his career began.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

 

4. Adrian Beltre, 3B

Notorious for performing best in the walk years of his contract, Beltre’s one-year “pillow” contract with the Red Sox couldn’t have worked out better for both sides. Unfortunately for the Sox, the third baseman most likely priced himself off of the payroll with his very good 2010 season.

An excellent defender, Beltre’s offensive statistics were his best since his 2004 farewell season with the Dodgers. Now 31 years old, the veteran will be looking for a very hefty four or five-year contract that will pay him between $15-20 million per season, and only teams with money to spend can dole out that kind of dough.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

5. Derek Jeter, SS

The stickiest contract of the entire offseason, Jeter will certainly take his sweet time in negotiating with the Yankees. With no other team expected to even call the career Bronx Bomber, both sides are going to have to get creative to satisfy one another.

While his numbers don’t justify much more than $7-$8 million per season, Jeter’s worth to the team extends far beyond what he does on the baseball field. The 27-time world champions will have to tie in personal benefits galore, lots of incentives and other crafty methods to ensure that the deal gets done, but in the end it’s doubtful to think that these two would divorce from one another.

Prediction: New York Yankees

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Top 10 Most Overpaid MLB Players In 2010: That’s Why Hot Dogs Cost $5

The New York Mets will be paying Bobby Bonilla until 2035.

With no salary cap and a new crop of talented free agents every season, it’s no surprise that the MLB is littered with bad contracts.

Teams are struggling with payroll flexibility both short and long-term in a tight economy, and these ten guys are big reasons as to why so many argue that there needs to be a cap in place. 

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Omar Minaya and the Miserable 2010 Mets

When Omar Minaya was brought to New York to take over as general manager of the Mets, New York was divided equally into two sections: lovers and haters. 

Minaya’s biggest strength as GM is also his biggest weakness in that he is a patchwork GM. Let me explain: Minaya sees a potential problem spot in the organization and typically addresses it in a quick method in order to “stop the bleeding,” similar to a band-aid (hence the patchwork title). However, Minaya has (on several occasions) failed to build the organizational depth that is necessary to a Major League ball club. To his credit, he has improved from earlier in his tenure, but is still no Billy Beane, not by a long shot.

For example, the 2009 Mets were hit by a slew of injuries that left the organization searching for answers at literally every position. The shallow depth of the team was exposed when Minaya was forced to trade for career journeyman SS Wilson Valdez just so the team could throw someone out there who could actually play the position. At one point last season, the Mets had a starting outfield of Jeremy Reed, Angel Pagan, and Cory Sullivan. Wow.

Now in 2010, the Mets still have the same problems. What would happen if golden boy David Wright were to ever seriously injure himself? The Mets would start 32-year-old journeyman Mike Hessman (just promoted from Triple-A today) as the regular guy? What if Jose Reyes goes down again? A middle infield of the aging Luis Castillo and future manager Alex Cora? Yikes. This is a team that started Mike Jacobs as its opening day cleanup hitter, then tried Fernando Tatis and Frank Catalanatto out of the spot before turning to youngster Ike Davis, so it’s easy to see that this is not a new problem.

Left field was the problem spot last season, so what does Omar Minaya do? He signs Jason Bay to a ridiculously bloated (but necessary) four-year deal, but what if Bay were to go down? I know that Jeff Francoeur is just riding the pine, and despite Bay’s poor stats, he still breaks up the lineup better than Frenchy any day of the week. 

My point is simple: winning is built through organizational depth, and I’m not just talking about Triple-A fodder. It’s about creating a system and a style of play that the front office believes in, and executing that vision with the players that are most fit for the idea. Not simply just throwing talent together and trying to make it work. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Top 10 Fantasy Starting Pitchers: First Half Edition

With the All-Star break upon us and the game’s most promising players enjoying the sunny weather in Anaheim, we here at FBS take a look at the Top 10 starting pitchers from the first half of the season.

It’s been an amazing start to the season for a man from Colorado, but there are plenty of others who have been absolutely electric for fantasy owners this season.

1.Ubaldo Jimenez, SP COL: 15-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 113 K, 127 IP

It’s only appropriate that Ubaldo is number one our list given the fact that he’s gotten off to such a historic start.

He’s got an incredible 15 wins at the All-Star Break, and could very well finish the year north of 25 wins.

With his ability to strikeout batters at an amazing clip with a 97 mph fastball that carries over a foot of movement, Ubaldo has truly become one of the most electric starters in recent history. He’s always been capable of throwing the ball hard, but it seems that this is the year Jimenez has finally learned how to pitch.

Congratulations to him on being selected to start for the National League.

2.Adam Wainwright, SP STL: 13-5, 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 127 K, 136.1 IP

There’s been a new ace in St. Louis for a couple of seasons now, as Adam Wainwright has shown what he is capable of.

Fantasy owners should be quite familiar with him, and although he may be most remembered for striking out Carlos Beltran back in ’06, Wainwright has long since matured to become the dynamic starter that he is today.

He has been absolutely lights-out this season and hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any start.

He pitches with such brilliance that his amazing performance has become somewhat of a normalcy to Cards fans.

While fantasy owners can pencil him in for a quality start (QS) just about every time he takes the hill.

3.Josh Johnson, SP FLA: 9-3, 1.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 123 K, 122 IP

Johnson could very well be number one on this list if he hadn’t been the victim of some poor run support in some of his outings.

Johnson is pitching as well as anyone in baseball and should be much closer to 14 wins than 9.

He is an elite fantasy option in every format for the second half and owners that are lucky enough to have him on board should hold on tight and never let go.

With an overpowering fastball and confidence on the mound, Johnson has established himself as South Florida’s newest ace.

4.David Price, SP TB: 12-4, 2.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100 K, 115.1 IP

Price is showing the fantasy world exactly why he was so highly touted when being selected first overall out of Vanderbilt in 2006.

Price has turned into the ace atop the rotation that the Rays had hoped he would, and has just been named the starter for the American League in this year’s All-Star game.

Price has shown the ability to dominate hitters with an overpowering fastball and a slider that absolutely falls off the table and has really kept hitters off balance for the entire first half.

He’s got a chance to win 20 games, but his second half upside is slightly limited by the Rays monitoring his workload very closely.

Remember, he threw just 128 innings in the majors last year, and is already approaching that number at the halfway point.

5.Cliff Lee, SP TEX: 8-4, 2.64 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 91 K, 112.2 IP

Lee got off to a late start this season because of an abdominal sprain, but he certainly has more than made up for his missed time.

Lee has an absolutely astounding 91:6 K:BB ratio, which is better than 15:1.

He’s a candidate to lead the MLB in WHIP by season’s end as he just doesn’t walk anybody, and he continues to rack up the strikeouts every time out.

Pair all of that with his incredible ability to work extremely deep into the game (6 CG already), and Lee has really become a favorite of fantasy owners.

He is the definition of consistency.

Despite him being traded last week, he stays out in the AL West where he has enjoyed success thus far this season.

6.Mat Latos, SP SD: 10-4, 2.45 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 99 K, 106.2 IP

Latos has been a pleasant surprise to some, but not to those who are familiar with fantasy baseball.

After getting a taste of what Latos could do last season, it seems that we’re getting the full flavor this year.

Despite being overshadowed by the Strasburg hype, Latos may very well be the better of the two youngsters—at least right now. Those who would argue should really take a close look at Latos as he has been just overpowering every hitter that has faced him this season.

He’s another young arm with a power fastball and devastating (but still developing) breaking stuff.

Latos can absolutely make a batter look silly at the plate, and the only thing that limits his second half upside is he’ll be limited to somewhere between 150-180 IP.

7.Jered Weaver, SP LAA: 8-5, 3.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 137 K, 121 IP

Put me down as someone who didn’t exactly pencil Jered Weaver in as the strikeout leader in the MLB at the halfway point.

The younger Weaver has really established himself as the ace of an Angels’ staff that saw John Lackey depart via free agency this season.

His K:BB ratio isn’t quite as good as Cliff Lee’s at 138:27, but whose is?

He’s on pace to win 16 games just like he did last season, so I can’t say that I didn’t anticipate this season’s success, but he’s nonetheless been quite the fantasy find.

Despite a couple of rough starts heading into the break, he’s had some absolute gems throughout the first half and has solidified himself as a fantastic fantasy option.

8.Felix Hernandez, SP SEA: 7-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131 K, 137.2 IP

Despite his low win total, King Felix has certainly looked a lot like royalty this season.

He’s back to pitching at a CY Young level and the results are evidence in that.

He has pitched nine innings in four of his last five starts heading into the break and is only 2-0 over that span, so he’s definitely been a victim of poor run support from an anemic Mariners offense.

He hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start in over a month and has allowed just eight runs over his last six starts, spanning 51.2 innings.

He’s simply been on fire and is an elite option for his ability to strike hitters out and carry a remarkably low ERA & WHIP.

9.Jon Lester, SP BOS: 11-3, 2.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 124 K, 120 IP

Lester endured a tough start to the start of his 2010 campaign, but quickly straightened himself out and has reaffirmed his role atop the Sox rotation as the main man.

He’s always been known as a strikeout guy, but this lefty hurler is on pace to win over 20 games and strike out more than a batter per inning.

Lester’s comeback story is a testament to so many things, and luckily for him, one of those is his outstanding work ethic.

Lester has truly developed into a dynamic fantasy option and a legitimate number one on your staff.


10.Roy Halladay, SP PHI: 10-7, 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 128 K, 148 IP

Halladay gets the nod as the final pitcher to make the Top 10.

It was an awfully tight race in the year of the pitcher, but Halladay’s seven complete games have really separated him from his competitors.

Halladay not only came into a new league & division this year, but emphatically declared his arrival by pitching a perfect game in the first half of the season.

Doc’s brilliance can’t be understated and he really knows how to pitch regardless of the ballpark that he is in.

Halladay continues to be one of the most under appreciated pitchers in the game because of his quiet demeanor, but fantasy owners won’t mind if he slips under the radar and right into one’s lap.

Honorable Mention:

Clayton Kershaw: 9-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 128 K, 112.1 IP

Yovani Gallardo: 8-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 122 K, 111.2 IP

Andy Pettitte: 11-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 87 K, 113.1 IP

Originally published at FantasyBaseballSportal.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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