Kuzul

In 2008, I wrote an article called “Baseball Needs a Face Lift.”  Two of the three things I suggested have come to pass in the last week.

The Astros were voted over to the American League. Would it have been the Astros five years ago when they were winning? It should have been either the Brewers, with their “what conflict of interest” attitude, or one of the two newest teams in the National League.

So how will the schedule play out? The given is that there will be interleague play all year long. 

Which American League teams will open in Cincinnati? I suggest the following:

Schedule:

Eighteen games within the division=72 games

Six games against same league teams: 60

One three-game series at home against one division of other league: 15

One three-game series on the road against a second division:15

No games against the third,on a rotating basis, like the NFL does now: 0=162 total

This creates the “competitive balance” often preached but seldom implemented.

Playoffs:

Playoffs are a huge cash cow for the NFL and NCAA. The NBA, having a majority of its teams qualifying for the postseason, is a joke. If baseball is to expand its playoffs and not be a joke. 

If they are long, the playoffs could drag into November. If there is a “one and done”  it would be like the NCAA play in game(s), barely worthy of ESPN2. 

The best solution is that the two best teams get a bye. The weakest division winner and the current wild card would host a two-out-of-three series. Winners move into the current format.

Personally, I think only the World Series would be seven games. 

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Was the Reds success of last season an aberration or a trend?  They were 43-24 against the Astros, Brewers, Cubs and Pirates, and 48-47 against everyone else.

1–Who among the Reds’ young stable of starting pitchers will take it to the next level?

Homer Bailey: 4-3, 4.46 ERA, 19 starts, 109 innings

Johnny Cueto: 12-7, 3.64 ERA, 31 starts, 185 innings

Mike Leake: 8-4, 4.23 ERA, 22 starts, 136 innings

Edinson Volquez:  4-3, 4.31 ERA,  12 Starts, 62 innings

Travis Wood  5-4,  3.61 ERA, 17 starts, 102 innings

Do you see a pattern here?  Cueto was the only one who was in the rotation all year.

 Volquez was out after Tommy John elbow surgery a year.  With his control lapses and mechanics issues, did he come back too soon?   If he can regain his fom of 2008, he may never be worth Josh Hamilton, but has the potential to be a #1 starter on the level of Jose Rijo before his elbow problems.

Wood came up at mid year, and came within two outs of a perfect game, a feat only accomplished by the last successful Reds’ left-handed starter, Tom Browning.  He seems to have the stuff for long-term success.

If Bailey is still around, 2011 may be his last shot at gaining a permanent spot in the rotation. He could fulfill the need for long relief they had[n  Pedro Borbon who kept the Reds in a lot of ball games.  But Bailey takes a while to warm up the clock is ticking…

 After getting off to a fast start that would have made Leake an early Rookie of the year candidate, Leake seemed to have evaporated after Volquez returned.  When he went to the bullpen, he got hammered.  And then he disappeared.

Although Champan is able to throw 105 m.p.h., I am more concerned with his ability to get 27 outs.  He either has to start or finish.  There is no way to justify his money for a set up man. 

If he becomes a closer. where does that put Francisco Cordero?  Cordero gets a huge salary to finish games and probably not be around after next year. To justify Chapman’s salary, he would have to be a Mariano Rivera.

In order to compete with other clubs, the starters have to go deeper into games.   Given the Brewers recent acquirisitions, they will need to get better in order to repeat.

Bullpen.

Cordero, 6-5, 3.84 ERA, 40 saves is in the last year of contract.   With eight blown saves, if half of his blown saves had been converted, the Reds playoff position and maybe results could have been different.  Even when he converted saves, it was rarely easy due to erratic control.

 Behind Cordero is Nick Masset, who was 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA, with two saves.  With Arthur Rhodes departed, Matt Maloney or the possible resurrection of Dontrell Willis filling the void.  Logan Ondrusek, 5-0, 3.68 ERA, in 60 appearances, pitched much better in his second stint with the big club.

Middle and long relief could be a weakness of this team, if a starter, relegated to the bullpen is unable to make the adjustment. 

Catching

Last season’s pickup of Ramon Hernandez (97 games, 7 home runs, 48 RBIs, .297 ave) was, for the short term, along with Scott Rolen, one of the best in recent years.  Coupled with Ryan Hannigan, (70 games, 5, 40, .306) two solid catchers, until last year’s first round draft choice, Yasmani Grandal time to develop.  Last year, Hernandez handled about 60%, to Hannigan’s 40%.  Hannigan always caught Arroyo. and usually an additional start a week.  Barring injury, the Reds seem to be in good shape.

Infield

If the Reds can pony up the dough, they seem to be set for the decade with Joey Votto (150 games, 37, 113, .328, almost unanimous MVP) at first base is the first real difference maker that has come up through the Reds’ system since Barry Larkin, meaning to the Reds what Jeff Bagwell meant to the Astros in the 90’s and Tony Perez to the Big Red Machine. 

With another potential big bat in Yonder Alonzo waiting in the wings, one or the other may have to play out of position, like Perez playing third when Lee May came up.  Votto worked hard on his defense last year, so any move of Votto that would affect his offense would be a  bad idea, and Alonzo may become to Votto what Hal Morris was to Don Mattingly, or Paul Konerko was to Sean Casey.

Brandon Phillips (150 gams, 18, 59, .275) scored a lot of runs, and had a better year than the stats due to a late season hand injury.  His remarks about the Cardinals didn’t set to well in head-to-head encounters, but seemed to set a fire under the other teams in the division,  The Cards were 12-6 against the Reds, but 27-33 against the other four teams, with much of the damage coming after Phillips’ remarks. 

When Willie Stargell wrote his book on the 1979 “We are Familee” Pittsburgh Pirates, he wrote that Dave Parker, a guy who was so talented that he replaced Roberto Clemente, played out of hate.  It doesn’t take much bitterness to shove one into playing out of hate.  They win championships and they are not happy.  Baseball is still a game that pays insane money and most of us can only dream about it.  My best advise to Phillips is to play hard but be happy. 

The 1979 Pirates were their last championship team, sweeping the Reds in the LCS, and beating the Orioles in a seven game World Series.  They haven’t had a winning season since Barry Bonds left them.

Like most Reds good second basemen, Phillips is a converted shortstop, with shortstop range at second base.  Phillips made only three errors and won his second Gold Glove.With Cabrerra out of the picture, it seems that the Reds have put the confidence in Paul Janish (82 games, 5, 25, 260)as an everyday shortstop.  Like Juan Castro, there was never any doubt about Janish’s defense, but had little confidence in his hitting.  But Dave Concepcion was not much of a hitter when he started either.  Put Janish in the eighth slot and leave him there.  They have plenty of 1-7 offense.  Geronimo batted .307 in the eighth slot in 1976, and Sparky Anderson didn’t move him. 

Who’s on third, long term: I dunno.

Last year at this time I speculated what kind of a difference having Scott Rolen (133 games, 20-83, .85) for a whole season would be.  He certainly was enough of a difference to make the Reds a division winner.  But Rolen faded in the second half of the season, and will probably be limited in starts in 2011.   Like several guys in the past, I wish Rolen would have become a Red earlier than when he was acquired.  It is possible that the Reds can have four Gold Gloves this year.

Two guys that were brought up in September, Juan Francisco (36 games, 1-7, .273) and Chris Valiaka (19 games, 1-2, .263) are possiblilties.  Francisco has the offensive pop, and Valaika can back up at second, short, or third, taking Janish’s spot as a backup.  With Miguel Cairo (91 games, 4, 28, .290) returing, it is unlikely that Francisco, Valaika and Alonzo will be with the team on opening day.

Outfield

Johnny Gomes (148 games, 18. 86, .266) was an enigma in left field.  At times he looked like the perfect #5 hitter, driving in runs in droves, and other times he looked all the things Adam Dunn’s agent never brings up in contract negotiations, strikeouts, and although he made only one more error than Jay Bruce, he had 149 less total chances than Bruce.  At 29, he could still have many productive years ahead of him, but 2010 could have been a career year.

Whenever the Reds are approached about trades, Chris Heisey’s (97 games, 8, 21, .254) name probably comes up in discussions.  He appears to be a five tool guy that could be an everyday outfielder for a decade.  When Bruce was injured, and Gomes, Heisey and Stubbs had to play every inning of every game, the team’s play suffered.  Since no one was brought up from Louisville to fill the void, it seems there is little help at AAA. 

The potential great white hope of the Reds is former #1 pick Drew Stubbs (150 games, 22, 77, .255h).  With blazing speed, he appears to be the perfect leadoff hitter.  With Stubbs it is all about contact.  How many times last season was Stubbs 0-2 without taking the bat off his shoulders?  Batting lead off is a lot of pressure, but Baker and the coaching staff are working to make him more aggressive.  If he can become even a decent bunter,he can become a terror to opposing teams.  Short fences in small ballparks are a real tempta tion for guys like Stubbs to look for a perfect pitch to drive.  In the “dead ball” era, guys like Willie Keeler were successful because, as he put it, “I hit ’em where the ain’t.”

With their speed Heisey and Stubbs can cover a lot of ground.  One aspect of the Big Red Machine that is often overlooked was that its defense was as good as its offense.  A great defensive outfield can knock off half a run off the team ERA.

The Reds made a major commitment by signing Jay Bruce (148 games, 25, 70, .281) to a long term contract.  At one point last season Marty Brenamin wondered aloud, “will this kid ever get it?

 One can summarize last season in this statement “as goes Jay Bruce, so goes the Cincinnati Reds.”  As good as Votto is, Votto cannot carry this team alone.  When Bruce is on top of his game, he can hit the first pitch 400 feet to clinch a playoff erth.  When he slumps, the whole team suffers. 

In terms of talent, Bruce is a faster version of Paul O’Neill.  O’Neill “got it” after he left the Reds, and has five World Series rings.  When O’Neill first came up, Pete Rose called him “Jethro.”

Management

When Bob Castelinni bought the team, he got Walt Jockety to be General Manager.  Baseball is different from other sports because baseball is a very long season with the fewest teams making the post season.  A franchise that was an also ran has a bright future.  Jockety sems to be pushing the right buttons like Bob Howsam in the ’70s.  I feel for Bengal fans who are stuck with Mike Brown.

When Dusty Baker was hired as manager, I had my doubts.  Like any. leader, he can only tell his people what to do.  His players have to execute.  Some guys succeed, other do not.  In 1990, people were looking for any reason for hope against the prohibitively favored Oakland A’s.  What they came up with was “the ex Cub factor,” with the Reds having less ex Cubs than the A’s.  After losing the LCS, the win 66 games the next year, Baker gets canned.  His teams weren’t very good his first two years, but found success in the third.

Outlook

Aside from starting pitching, and even then cannot keep up with the big spenders, the Reds are not very deep.  If their regulars stay healthy and continue to improve the decade of 2010 might be like the decade of 1970.  1990 was a great year.  A unique year, being in first place all season.  The rest of the decade was up and down.  I make no predictions.

My Opening Day Lineup:

Stubbs, CF

Phillips, 2B

Votto, 1B

Rolen, 3B

Bruce, RF

Gomes, LF

Hannigan, C (catches Arroyo)

Janish, SS

Arroyo, P  He deserves it.

An irony to end this piece:  only one year have they opened on the road:

 1990

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I was nine years old in 1964 and just beginning to follow baseball.  It was the year of the Phillies’ collapse.  However, the Phillies beat the Reds on the last day, crushing the Reds’ hope of a one game playoff with the Cardinals, with the winner going to the World Series. 

The Cardinals beat the Yankees that year, ending a string of 29 of 46 pennants and twenty World Series wins.  No, Tim it was the Yankees, not the Stan the Man Cardinals.

I have only read about what happened before 1964, like “the Shot Heard ‘Round the World” or the Pirates winning the 1960 World Series when they were out scored 57-27.

Tim McCarver was the catcher of the ’64 Cardinals.  They had Bob Gibson, Lou Brock, and Curt (free agent) Flood (Flood was traded to the Cardinals by the Reds because they had Vada Pinson).

Now McCarver is shooting off his yap about the Cardinal September-October Mystique.

I have a few questions?  Correct me if I am wrong but since I was born in 1955, how many championships have the Cardinals won?  Three: 1964, 1982, and 2006. 

During the same time period, how many championships have the Reds won?  Three: 1975, 1976, and 1990.

Of those teams, which has won its last nine World Series games?  No, it is not the Cardinals.

Which of those team was the only team since the LCS began in 1969 to sweep an LCS and a World Series in the same year.  No Tim, it was not the Cardinals.

Before Marty Brenamin came in 1974, the Reds play-by-play man went to ABC.  Al Michaels knows when to be a homer (Do you believe in miracles?). 

If McCarver chooses to be a homer, turn the sound down and turn up Reds’ Radio.

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With the  anticipated return of Edinson Volquez. longtime Reds’ fans wonder whether he will be able to come back after Tommy John’s surgery, or whether he will be just another half-year wonder. Most of Volquez’s success in 2008 was before the All Star break.

He gave up a two-run homer that cost the game and home field advantage in the world series. It did not matter since the Phillies finished off the Rays in five games.

Two other Reds pitchers were half year wonders.  Both were first-round draft choices,

In 1970, Wayne Simpson was 12-1 at the All Star break.  He won two games the rest of the year.  He was traded to Kansas City with Hal McRae after the 1972 season, but his stuff was never the same. Too much reliance on the slider. He ending his career with a 36-31 record. 

Jack Armstrong, after a couple of lackluster seasons, was in double figures in wins in 1990, and lost his spot in the rotation.  He pitched three scoreless innings in Game Two of the World Series, but never was a consistent winner.

There are success stories:

When Don Gullett came up. Willie Stargell said, “that kid is wall-to wall heat.” After an off year in 1972, he won 75 games in the next five years.

Gary Nolan missed almost two years in 1973-74 and came back to win 15 in ’75 and ’76.  He earned two World Series rings pitching 464 innings. Nolan, like Mario Soto later, developed a change up for an out pitch.

Now there is concern about overusing Mike Leake. 

Dusty’s memories of Kerry Wood and Mike Pryor were never the same after the ill-fated pennant run, but one doesn’t know. Maybe Leake is a young Jim Palmer who threw a four hit shutout in Game Two of the 1966 with 275 other wins and a place in the Hall of Fame.

Only time will tell if Volquez will return to his form of 2008. Too much reliance on the slider may make him another half year wonder.  If he succeeds, the Reds can be much more successful in the second decade of the 21st century than the first.  And the old saying is true: you can never have too much pitching.

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