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Updated Odds for the SF Giants to Sign Top 12 Remaining Free-Agent Targets

Fresh off their third World Series title in five years, the business of baseball moves on for the San Francisco Giants.

Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Boston Red Sox, leaving a gaping hole at third base and in the middle of the Giants’ batting order. In addition to third base, general manager Brian Sabean is also in the market for a left fielder, starting pitcher and right-handed reliever.

The Giants will likely have about $30 million to spend to fill these needs, and it will be wise for Sabean not to spend it all on one player.

Let’s take a look at some of the key players the Giants have expressed an interest in and gauge the odds of whether we will see them in a Giants uniform.

Player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Salary and contract data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

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10 Key Free Agents the San Francisco Giants Need to Consider

The cheers have quieted and the confetti has been swept away, but the 2014 season will never be forgotten.

The San Francisco Giants defeated the Kansas City Royals to win their third World Series title in five years. In the modern era, with free agency and so much parity in the game, the Giants are a baseball dynasty.

The 2014 season was filled with an incredible number of highs and lows, but in the end, it was the Giants who prevailed. Now that the euphoria of the Giants’ victory parade has subsided, though, it’s time to look at how this team will shape up for 2015.

San Francisco has five key free agents, and it is unrealistic to believe that it can retain all of them. These players include Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo. All played important roles in the Giants’ success this past season.

Giants general manager Brian Sabean will have a tough task ahead of him this winter. He will attempt to field another championship-caliber team, with limited funds available at his disposal.

In 2014, the Giants opened the season with a payroll of approximately $149 million. That grew to over $150 million over the course of the season. 

San Francisco has already committed roughly $127 million for the upcoming season, but that’s for only 12 players. In addition, this includes Marco Scutaro, who may never play again.

Fresh off the exciting and financially lucrative postseason, the Giants’ ownership group will undoubtedly allow Sabean to grow the payroll above the $150 million mark. Just how much more is the major question.

Even a $25 million increase, which is a realistic figure, may not enable Sabean the flexibility to build a roster as solid as the one San Francisco had in the 2014 postseason.

Let’s take a look at the key free agents the Giants must consider and estimate the odds of each player returning to San Francisco.

 

All stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

All salary data is courtesy of BaseballProspectus.com.

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An Early Look at the San Francisco Giants’ Top 10 Offseason Targets

The San Francisco Giants are in the midst of a playoff push. If successful, their fans could be in for another magical postseason run.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a master of motivating his players and getting the most out of them when it counts. He led the Giants to two World Series titles, even though they were usually the underdog throughout the playoffs.

Although the focus should be on the rest of this season and rightfully so, it is never too early to look at what happens after the season is concluded.

General manager Brian Sabean will have an extremely busy offseason. The Giants have five key players that will hit the free-agent market at the end of the season. These players are Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo.

Sabean and the Giants ownership group will have some very tough decisions to make, and money could be a major issue.

According to statistics posted by baseballprospectus.com, the Giants began the 2014 season with a payroll in excess of $149 million, the seventh highest in baseball. With a few additions, this amount is now over $150 million.

If the Giants ownership group wants to give the team and its fans the best chance to win, it will need to increase that by as much as 10-15 percent in order to properly bolster the roster for the upcoming season.

Looking ahead to the 2015, season, the Giants already have roughly $127 million committed to 12 players, with several holes needing to be filled.

It will be up to the Giants ownership group if it is willing to give Sabean enough financial flexibility to address the Giants’ needs.

This increase can be temporary, as there are several large contracts coming off the books after the 2015 season. These include Tim Lincecum’s $18 million, Tim Hudson’s $12 million, Marco Scutaro’s $6.67 million and Jeremy Affeldt’s $6 million. 

Let’s take a look at which players will be the Giants’ 10 biggest targets this winter.

 

All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

All contract data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

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San Francisco Giants: An Early Free-Agency and Offseason Primer

The San Francisco Giants‘ 2014 regular season is winding down and has just over four weeks remaining.

As the Giants scratch and claw to make the playoffs, general manager Brian Sabean must also begin planning for the future. Sabean will have several critical decisions to make, as he builds the roster for the 2015 season.

The Giants have five key free agents about whom they must make decisions. These include Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo. 

At approximately $150 million, the Giants have one of the top payrolls in Major League Baseball, according to baseballprospectus.com. It remains to be seen how much, if anything, the Giants ownership group will allow Sabean to increase this number for the 2015 season.

Sabean will need to bolster the pitching staff and try to bring in more consistent bats this winter. If he does not get the buy-in from ownership to increase the payroll, this task will be almost impossible.

Let’s take a look at some of the potential moves Sabean and the Giants could make prior to the 2015 season. The final outcome will be largely based on the money.

 

All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

All contract and free agency data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

 

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San Francisco Giants: 8 Players Trying to Save Their Jobs for 2015

As the 2014 season begins to wind down, the San Francisco Giants are battling for a playoff berth. 

In the NL West, the Giants currently trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.5 games but only two in the all-important loss column.

The Giants are also in the hunt for a wild-card spot, along with St. Louis, Atlanta and Pittsburgh

The stretch run will give the Giants management a good opportunity to see their players competing under the utmost pressure of a pennant race. How some of them perform will go a long way toward determining if they will be in orange and black for 2015.

Let’s take a look at several players whose future with the Giants is in question. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that each of these players wants to return.

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The Biggest Issues the San Francisco Giants Must Address at the Trade Deadline

The San Francisco Giants have fallen on tough times in the past week, losing six of their last seven games. Fortunately for the Giants, they had built a sizable lead in the NL West and are still ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers by six games. 

During this recent skid, the Giants have had bouts of poor pitching from their starters and the bullpen. They also have had games where the bats were silenced or were unable to get a key hit. In addition, poor defense has hurt the Giants’ efforts.

There is not one thing that can be pointed at that has caused the Giants’ recent problems. However, there are some overriding concerns that become magnified when the team is losing.

With the trade deadline on the horizon, general manager Brian Sabean will be looking for areas where he can help bolster the team.

The first priority is at second base. Brandon Hicks had some big games and clutch hits early in the year. Hicks has power, with eight home runs and 22 RBI on the year.

However, Hicks’ performance has declined dramatically of late. He has not homered since May 23 and has only two RBI in his last 20 games.

Even more troubling is that Hicks has now struck out 70 times in 187 at-bats, with several of those in situations where even a ground ball would have driven in a run.

Hicks’ average is down to .176, with an OBP of .289 and OPS of .637. Defensively, he has been better than expected, but the Giants can no longer live with his complete lack of production.

Manager Bruce Bochy has also given Ehire Adrianza some opportunities, but he is proving that he is not ready to be in the majors. 

In 63 at-bats, Adrianza is hitting only .190 with no home runs and four RBI. He has a soft .190 batting average to go along with an OBP of .235 and OPS of .458. Watching him at the plate, he is frequently overmatched.

Adrianza has also made too many mistakes defensively for a player that is supposed to be an outstanding defensive player. 

The only reason Adrianza is on the team is because he is out of minor league options. The Giants are afraid another team will claim him if they expose him to waivers.

Joaquin Arias is another potential option, but he is often used at other positions or as a defensive replacement for Pablo Sandoval in the late innings. Arias is also not producing at this point.  

In 79 at-bats, Arias is hitting only .177, with an OBP of .214 and OPS of .392. Arias has no home runs and seven RBI. However, at least Arias looks like he has a chance to hit the ball with authority, which can rarely be said about Adrianza.

Also, do not expect anything out of Marco Scutaro this season. If he ultimately does make it back, it will be a bonus, but at this point, he cannot be counted on.

With the NL West race beginning to tighten up, it will be up to Sabean to get a top-flight second baseman. 

Daniel Murphy of the Mets is the perfect solution. Murphy is a very good offensive player and a solid, though unspectacular, defender. With the Mets currently eight games under .500, their playoff hopes are virtually nil.

In 281 at-bats, Murphy has five home runs, 26 RBI, 11 stolen bases and has scored 45 runs. His batting average is .299, with an OBP of .359 and OPS of .778.

Murphy is a solid, professional hitter and would be a huge upgrade for the Giants at second base. He is making $5.7 million this year, so if the Giants acquired him toward the end of July, they would be on the hook for roughly $2.5 million. 

Murphy is arbitration eligible in 2015, so the Giants would have him under their control for another season. He does not become eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.

Sabean may be able to pry Murphy away from the Mets by offering Adrianza plus a decent pitching prospect like Clayton Blackburn or Chris Stratton. This is a deal the Giants should make, even if it costs them a little bit more, as it will fill the huge void they have at second base.  

The other potential acquisition at the trade deadline would be for a starting pitcher. However, this pitcher would need to be measurably better than either Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong.

One such pitcher who is available is Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs. He is making only $5.345 million this year, and like Murphy, he will be in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2015.

Money will not be an issue for the Giants for the remainder of 2014, although it could be an issue for the Giants to sign him for the 2015 season and beyond.

However, Samardzija is not eligible to become a free agent until after next season, so this is not a rent-a-player scenario. 

Samardzija has thrown 91 innings this season, allowing 81 hits and 26 walks while striking out 82. His ERA is 2.77, and he has a WHIP of 1.176. Both of these numbers are very good. 

The Cubs will demand a king’s ransom for Samardzija. Any deal would need to include the Giants’ top pitching prospect Kyle Crick. In addition, the Cubs will likely want a couple more decent prospects in the deal.

If the Giants had to part with Crick and two other top prospects, such as catcher Andrew Susac and pitcher Martin Agosta, this is a deal they should do. Whenever you have a real chance to win now, it’s something you must capitalize on. The Giants have that chance in 2014.

If Samardzija becomes a Giant, the resulting move would be Ryan Vogelsong or Tim Lincecum to the bullpen. If Lincecum is willing to make the move, that will benefit the team, but if not, the Giants should be perfectly fine moving Vogelsong.

Look for things to start heating up in July around the All-Star break as Sabean starts maneuvering to strengthen his team. A couple of stellar moves like acquiring Murphy and Samardzija could be the Giants’ next ticket to the World Series.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


San Francisco Giants’ Biggest Winners and Losers for the Month of April

April has been good for the San Francisco Giants. They finished the month with a record of 17-11, in first place in the NL West.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies are hot on the Giants’ heels as they trail by only a half game and one game, respectively.

The Giants head out on the road for a tough 10-game road trip that will take them to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. When they return home, they immediately face the Braves again, then the Miami Marlins.

In total, the Giants will play 17 straight games with no days off or travel days. It was important for the Giants to get off to a good start in April and they have. May will be a much tougher month.

The Giants had several excellent contributions and a few disappointments over their first 28 games. Let’s take a closer look at who were the biggest winners and losers for the month of April.

 

Note: All individual player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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The 3 Biggest Winners and Losers from the San Francisco Giants’ Offseason

The San Francisco Giants have upgraded their roster and the happiest man on the team may be manager Bruce Bochy.

In 2013, the Giants were hit hard by injuries and struggled to a 76-86 record. Bochy, who is a master at getting the most out of his roster, was short-handed in virtually every area.

General manager Brian Sabean was very aggressive this winter and retained Hunter Pence, Tim Lincecum, Javier Lopez and Ryan Vogelsong. In addition, Sabean signed free-agent pitcher Tim Hudson and left fielder Michael Morse.

Whether Sabean did enough with these moves to get the Giants back into the postseason remains to be seen.

Let’s take a closer look at the Giants’ three biggest winners and losers this offseason.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. All contract data courtesy of BaseballProspectus.com.

 

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Did the San Francisco Giants Do Enough This Offseason to Make the NL Playoffs?

The San Francisco Giants won the 2012 World Series, their second title in three years. Expectations were very high as they entered the 2013 season, but a myriad of injuries and a few mediocre performances by key players derailed their hopes.

The Giants finished the 2013 season with a disappointing 76-86 record, a distant third behind the NL West-winning Los Angeles Dodgers.

Determined to put themselves back into title contention, Giants GM Brian Sabean wasted little time once the season ended. The Giants were very active in the market as they sought to solidify their roster.

Sabean locked up both Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum before either player hit the open market.

Pence signed a five-year, $90 million contract, which looks very reasonable in comparison to some of the other top free-agent outfielders like Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran.

Pence led the Giants in six key offensive categories with 27 home runs, 99 RBI, 91 runs scored, 22 steals, 178 hits and a .483 slugging percentage.

In addition, Pence was the only Giant to play in all 162 games. His constant hustle and infectious attitude makes him a great teammate and fan favorite. Pence also played a very solid right field in the windy, quirky and very tough AT&T Park, home of the Giants.

Sabean took a little heat when he inked Lincecum to a two-year, $35 million deal. Although a fan favorite, Lincecum is not the same pitcher he was earlier in his career. 

He is coming off a 2013 season that saw him go 10-14, with an ERA of 4.37 and WHIP of 1.315.

Lincecum did make 32 starts and throw 197.2 innings, which has a lot of value. He allowed 184 hits and 76 walks while striking out 193.

Lincecum has lost the mid-to-upper 90s velocity that made him a two-time Cy Young Award winner. 2013 was a season that saw him learn how to get opposing hitters out with a fastball that hovered in the 90-91 mph range.

The key for Lincecum is his command and working from ahead. He still has an outstanding changeup, but his margin for error is far less that it was a few short years ago.

Like Pence, Lincecum is a fan favorite and a marketer’s dream. His No. 55 jerseys are all around AT&T Park, which makes Lincecum even more valuable to the Giants. 

Although Sabean probably could have signed Lincecum for less, he did not want to take the chance on losing him to a team like Seattle, Lincecum’s hometown. The Mariners proved they were willing to spend a lot of money this winter, which could have meant seeing Lincecum in a Seattle uniform. 

As the old saying goes, “it’s not my money,” so for only a two-year deal, it was worth the risk for the Giants, as they hope Lincecum can recapture some of the magic from his earlier years.

Sabean also secured the services of left-handed relief specialist Javier Lopez and starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong. Lopez was very effective last season against left-handed hitters and plays a critical role in the Giants bullpen.

The Giants hope Vogelsong can return to his 2012 form, as a hand injury that occurred while batting derailed his season.

Free-agent pitcher Tim Hudson was the Giants’ biggest acquisition from outside the organization. Hudson signed a two-year, $23 million deal and will most likely slot in as the Giants’ third pitcher in the rotation.

Hudson sustained a gruesome ankle injury while covering first base in late July. Following surgery, he appears to be on track to start spring training with no restrictions.

Prior to his injury, Hudson had started 21 games and worked 131.1 innings, allowing 120 hits and 36 walks while striking out 95. Hudson’s ERA was 3.97, and he had a WHIP of 1.188. Hudson should also benefit from working half of his games at the very pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. 

With the commitment the Giants have made to pitching, Sabean has his starting rotation set, and the team’s seven-man bullpen also looks in order. 

The Giants made one other move, signing free-agent Michael Morse, who is slated to be the Opening Day left fielder. Morse agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal. If he can stay healthy, this could prove to be a steal, as Morse has excellent power and will be an offensive upgrade for the Giants. 

Morse battled a wrist injury last season. He struggled at the plate, batting only .215, with 13 home runs. If he can return to anywhere near his 2011 performance, when he hit .303 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI, the Giants will be thrilled. Morse’s .910 OBP that year was outstanding.

The NL West has three strong teams with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants all having a chance to win the division.

The Dodgers have to be considered the favorite, as they are the defending NL West champions and have the money to acquire whatever they may need by the middle of the season.

The Dodgers already have an outstanding pitching staff led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Offensively, a healthy Matt Kemp to go along with Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig give L.A. excellent firepower. 

In the end, the key for the Giants will come down to good health. If the Giants can stay relatively healthy, they and the Dodgers, with their seemingly endless financial resources, will battle it out for the division crown.

The Diamondbacks have Paul Goldschmidt and the recently acquired Mark Trumbo, but their pitching is a question mark. They also plan to start Chris Owings, an unproven youngster, at shortstop.

Even if the Giants do not win the division, they have an excellent chance to earn one of the two wild-card berths in the National League. So, if San Francisco can avoid the plethora of injuries that befell it in 2013, it will contend and ultimately make the playoffs in the upcoming season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


San Francisco Giants’ Big Offseason Questions That Still Need to Be Answered

The San Francisco Giants have been very active since their 2013 season ended with a 76-86 record. After winning their second world championship in three years, this past season was a disappointment. 

Injuries and performances that were below the Giants’ expectations doomed them to a third-place finish in the NL West. With the Los Angeles Dodgers now very willing and able to spend through the roof, it was incumbent upon Giants general manager Brian Sabean to bolster the roster.

Sabean and the Giants acted quickly to sign Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum before either player hit the free-agent market. Pence led the Giants in home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and OPS.

Pence’s five-year, $90 million contract looks like a relative bargain when compared to Jacoby Ellsbury, who signed a seven-year, $153 million deal with the New York Yankees, or Shin-Soo Choo’s seven-year, $130 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Sabean and the Giants were focused on returning to their tried-and-true formula of winning with pitching. With this in mind, in addition to retaining Lincecum, the Giants also signed two mainstays of their pitching staff, veterans Javier Lopez and Ryan Vogelsong.

The biggest acquisition from outside the franchise was starting pitcher Tim Hudson, who signed a two-year, $23 million contract. Hudson started his career in the Bay Area, in Oakland, where he played from 1999-2004. He played for the Atlanta Braves for the next nine seasons.

The latest free-agent acquisition, Michael Morse, will fill a gaping hole in left field. The Giants were last in the National League in production from the left field position, and Morse will most certainly improve that.

As the hot stove fires have burned brightly for the Giants, there are still several important questions that need to be answered as the 2014 season unfolds.

Let’s take a look at these key questions. How they are answered will go a long way in determining the Giants’ success in the upcoming season. 

 

All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com. All contract data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

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