Kuzul

Stock traders know all about the buy low, sell high philosophy.  So do fantasy baseball owners.   

To win in fantasy baseball, you have to get guys on the cheap who turn out to provide a lot of bang for little buck over a short period of time, and then you have to trade those same players away when their values are at their highest points in order to acquire better players who will help you win your league.

Two-plus months into the season there are several hitters and pitchers who are exceeding expectations, and chances are they are not going to keep up their frenetic paces, whether it is because they will get injured, lose their jobs, or come crashing back to earth. 

Here are five players I would trade now before their fantasy values start dropping like afternoon soap operas.  Deal them away for solid fantasy performers before they realize they are playing over their heads, or else wind up stuck with them at the All-Star break when their trade values dry up.  

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Sex and the City 2 and Jonah Hex have not been the only flops this summer. Fantasy baseball has had its fair share as well.  

We are more than two months into the 2010 baseball season, so its not too early to label certain superstars as busts. Sure, they could turn things around. They could play phenomenally from here on out and salvage their seasons, but right now they are giving their fantasy owners ulcers every time they go 0-for-4, blow a save, or get torched for seven runs in four innings.   

Here are the ten biggest busts in fantasy baseball!

Jason Bay, New York Mets

The Mets needed to keep up with the Yankees in the big-ticket item department, plus they needed outfield pop because they knew Carlos Beltran was going to miss the first half of the season. So they inked Bay, who had hit 30-plus homers and driven in 100-plus runs in four of the last five seasons. Smart move, right?

Wrong. Even though Bay has dealt with intense media scrutiny before (in Boston) and hitting in a pitcher’s ballpark (in Pittsburgh) during his career, he has been swinging like a lost soul all season. 

With only four homers and 29 RBI at this point, his chances of another 30-HR, 100-RBI campaign are slimmer than a Slim Jim.  At least Bay has been kind enough to steal (10 SB) and walk (.378 OBP) in lieu of hitting homers.    

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs

The knock on Ramirez with fantasy owners has always been that he is injury-prone.  Getting 162 games out of him is harder than getting Mark Teixeira to take a day off. But at least when Ramirez was on the field he was as productive as any third baseman around, capable of hitting .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI when 100 percent healthy.

Now Ramirez is injured AND hitting .162. He has actually increased his fantasy value by going on the disabled list. Here is a stat that should make you feel warm and fuzzy about him — in 47 games, Ramirez has been 0-for-3, 0-for-4, or 0-for-5 a grand total of 18 times. He also went 0-for-6 once, too. 

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy owners knew that sooner or later “Father Time” was going to throw Hoffman a curve of his own. What we didn’t know was that the curve was going to drop off the table like Barry Zito’s used to during his Oakland glory days.

Hoffman has gone from premier closer to premier failure in record time. After staving off old age with 37 saves and a 1.83 ERA in 2009, he has five saves, five blown saves, and a 9.00 ERA. He is now used in as many crucial late-game situations as Oliver Perez.

Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

You know you are having trouble when Aaron Heilman is picked to save games over you.  Qualls made the transition from setup man to closer late last year and did quite well, but it looks like he was a one-hit wonder like The Baja Men.  

Qualls has an 8.87 ERA, a 2.27 WHIP, and more people after him than BP. He could very well get his closer job back eventually if he straightens out and Heilman falls to pieces, but for now it is nothing but non-save situations for him in the near future. 

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

Greinke has gone from Cy Young to Anthony Young in less than one year. The poor guy had to post a 2.16 ERA last season just to win 16 games, so you knew there would be trouble for his win-loss record if he had the nerve to have a mortal 3.94 ERA.    

No run support, no defense, no miracles.  That has translated into a 2-8 record for Greinke, despite ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts numbers that should get him a winning record.  Figure this out — Chicago White Sox starter Freddy Garcia has a much worse ERA and WHIP, yet he is 8-3.

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy baseball’s largest vegetarian is eating more lettuce than driving in runs these days. His 27 RBI do not even rank him in the top 100 in the category as he trails lightweights like Yuniesky Betancourt, Juan Uribe, and Clint Barmes.  Jonny Gomes has almost driven in twice as many runs. 

Yes, Jonny Gomes.  

Is it that Corey Hart keeps knocking in all of the runners on base before Fielder comes to bat, leaving the porky power hitter with no RBI opportunities? No, Fielder has just not come up as huge as he did in 2009 when he racked up 141 ribbies. An RBI streak could be on the way knowing him, but for now Fielder is putting up the kind of stats Gaby Sanchez owners would be happy with, not Fielder owners.    

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox

Changing positions can sometimes be a bigger distraction than having Lady Gaga sitting in the stands.  hat seems to be the case with Beckham, who looked destined to win several batting titles throughout his career, but now will be lucky to stay in the majors throughout the year.   

The former first-rounder has been sidelined by a sophomore slump that has kept him around the Mendoza line all season long. Moving from third base to second base seems like it has done more harm for his bat than good for his glove. Fantasy owners can only hope that a batting coach, family friend, or rotisserie god from above can solve the Beckham riddle and get him back pasting line drives again.   

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

This was supposed to be the season Kinsler challenged Chase Utley to be the most valuable second baseman in fantasy baseball. But while Utley has left the door open for Kinsler to take the title, Kinsler has fumbled it worse than Adrian Peterson would.

Kinsler, coming off a 31HR/31SB superstar season, has one homer and six steals so far.  Some of this has to do with his early season injuries and some of this has to do with him not hitting for power and not attempting to steal much. Kinsler might not still be 100 percent healthy, and he might be still shaking off some spring rust, but it certainly would be nice if his name started appearing more often in the HR and SB sections of the Texas boxscores.  

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays     

Here is another American League second baseman who went from being the next Jeff Kent to being the next Jeff Keppinger. Hill burst onto the fantasy scene last year with 35 homers, 108 RBI, and 103 runs. He was a feel good, Lifetime movie worthy story because of how he came back from a serious concussion that ruined his 2007 season.  

And now Hill is hitting .187.  

The power stroke is still kinda there (ten homers) and Hill has been kinda hitting better this month (.211 average in June). Still, .187 is .187. That will single handedly ruin a fantasy team’s batting average. You need a couple Joe Mauers in your lineup to even Hill’s average out. And you cannot rely on Hill’s track record to think he will bounce back because he has only had one great season in five-plus years.  

 

Nate McLouth, Atlanta Braves

Remember when Pittsburgh Pirates fans were rioting in the streets when McLouth was traded to Atlanta in the middle of last season?  You would have thought Sidney Crosby had been dealt to the Los Angeles Kings for a bunch of draft picks and pucks with the way people reacted.  

McLouth has hit like someone in serious need of glasses. He has a .176 batting average, and before he can turn things around and climb towards the .200 plateau, he first has to get off the disabled list. He is suffering from post-concussion symptoms after an outfield collision.  

McLouth is a 20-HR/20-SB guy when his mind and body are right.  The problem is we don’t know when both will be right again.  It may not be until 2011 (or ever) the way things are going.

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After Roy Halladay was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, fantasy baseball owners believed the only Toronto Blue Jays worth having were Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Turns out there are a few other Jays not only worth owning, but that are better than those two.     

It is as if Coors Field has been rebuilt in Toronto. Sure, the Rogers Centre (A.K.A. SkyDome) has also been known as a hitter’s haven, but never like this season.  Somehow average-at-best (and that is being kind) part-time players with .230 batting averages for other teams in their careers have suddenly morphed into powerful sluggers you don’t want to throw 2-0 fastballs to. Either the air is getting thinner inside the Rogers Centre, or Harry Potter has conjured up a spell that is magically guiding Toronto’s fly balls over the fence.       

Here are the Blue Jays that have turned into fantasy heroes after spending the last couple years as fantasy zeroes:

Jose Bautista

This guy is leading the majors in home runs? No, couldn’t be. Let me adjust my glasses. Well, call me George Brett and put pine tar on my bat! Bautista and his 18 dingers are indeed ahead of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and everyone else in the sport.  

Bautista leading any major offensive category two months into the season is almost as shocking as Al and Tipper Gore’s separation. He has never brought many redeeming fantasy qualities to the table during his eight-year career.  

Most homers in a season? 16, which Bautista has already surpassed without breaking a sweat. Most RBI? 63, and he already has more than two-thirds of that now in only one-third of a season. His best batting average? .254, so Joe Mauer has one less person to worry about coming after his batting crown considering Bautista is only presently hitting .243.

Bautista has not suffered through one prolonged power slump yet, even though his uppercut swing has holes in it and he still chases breaking balls in the dirt like a greyhound chases mechanical rabbits. He may strike out like Mark Reynolds, but now he hits homers like Reynolds does, too.
       
We will all wake up from this dream very soon.  Bautista must have overdosed on four-leaf clovers last St. Patrick’s Day or something.  He might finish with 30 homers and 90 RBI at season’s end, but to think he will keep this pace up is plain crazy. He is the ultimate sell-high candidate if there ever was one.  

John Buck

The Kansas City Royals, not known for their intelligent personnel decisions (Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs? Multi-millions for Jose Guillen and Gil Meche?), looked smart for a change in the off-season when they cut bait on Buck, who had worn out his welcome because of his low batting averages and lower on-base percentages.

Buck has always had pop in his bat, though. He hit 70 home runs in six seasons with the Royals. Of course, only fantasy owners noticed, and even they did not care much since his constant 0-for-4 games would deflate the value of his taters.     

The homers are coming faster and more furious this season for Buck with him catching for Toronto, though. The veteran backstop has nine homers and 30 RBI in just 49 games, so he is well on his way to obliterating his previous career-highs in both statistics. And his batting average is .255, which might be terrible for many players but for Buck is the equivalent of hitting .300.    

Buck’s track record suggests that he will not keep up this Darren Daulton routine much longer. An 0-for-the-week is on the horizon that plummets his average 20 points. So trading him now when his value is higher than the summit at Mount Everest would be an optimal idea unless you have no other options behind the plate or if you have faith he can actually finish with 25 homers and 75 RBI.

Alex Gonazlez

Toronto has always had a thing for shortstops named Alex Gonzalez. Now the second shortstop with that name to man the position for the Jays this decade has been providing more pop than a general store from the 1950’s.  

Gonzalez, known more for his golden glove and his cannon arm than his home run prowess, has been slugging like he is Brady Anderson circa 1996. A-Gon has 12 homers and 33 RBI in 57 games. To put this in perspective, he has only broken the 70-RBI plateau twice and the 20-HR barrier once since entering the majors in 1998, so to say this was unexpected is like saying a few extra people watched Stephen Strasburg’s first big-league start.  

Gonzalez does not walk, does not steal, and does not hit for a high average. Homers and RBI are all he is good for in fantasy circles. Can he keep up the good work? Every other Blue Jay has been blasting homers regularly since Opening Day, so why can’t he?  Because he is a shortstop and because he has a slightly better resume than Bautista and Buck, I would not be against holding onto him, especially in AL-only leagues where homer-hitting shortstops are scarce.              

Brett Cecil

I’ll bet Pacman Jones, Howie Mandel, and John Cena’s names were mentioned at more fantasy drafts in March than Cecil’s. Only 16-team, AL-only leagues would have brought Cecil up for discussion. You cannot blame fantasy owners for not thinking about him on Draft Day. Cecil posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.65 WHIP during his rookie campaign and was no lock to make the 2010 rotation.

Yet Cecil has worked as many wonders as televangelist Benny Hinn during the opening third of the schedule. He has mixed his pitches perfectly, keeping righties off-kilter with his combination of fastballs and breaking balls, while totally shutting down lefthanded hitters (.143 batting average). Cecil is 6-2 with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a growing fantasy fan base with every quality start he has.    

And this is just the tip of the iceberg in the hero department for the Blue Jays. Vernon Wells, whose body looked shot the past two seasons, is a fantasy stud again (15 homers, 40 RBI). Edwin Encarnacion has been pounding balls over the fence—when he has made contact (eight HR in 90 AB). And Shawn Marcum has valiantly returned from another arm injury to pitch like an ace (5-3, 3.38). 

I am not sure who deserves all the credit for all of these amazing performances. Maybe the coaching staff. Maybe the ballpark. Maybe the strength and conditioning coach.  Maybe the fantasy baseball gods. Maybe the bat boy. Or I guess the players themselves deserve some kudos. Whatever the case, many players are having special seasons north of the border, and fantasy owners are benefiting big time.

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