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Felix Hernandez Should NOT Win the 2010 Cy Young, but Neither Should CC Sabathia

A lot of noise has been made in the sabermetrics community stating that Felix Hernandez should win the 2010 Cy Young Award.

While most of the arguments are rational and valid, they tend to be shortsighted, comparing King Felix to only CC Sabathia.

Advanced metrics and statistical analysis show that while Felix has won only 12 games while losing 11, he’s actually pitched much better than Sabathia this season.

Felix boasts strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, ground ball rates, and accumulated Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that are all superior to that of Sabathia.

Each has been a dependable workhorse, pitching well over 200 innings this season. However, writer perception, combined with a Zack Greinke victory in award voting last year, which he won out from under Felix Hernandez, has spawned a pretty heated debate, where perhaps some people who were chanting Felix’s name last year are now again in his corner, but for completely opposite reasons.

However, the season that Greinke had last year was very special by all measures. His nine WAR were the best by a pitcher since Pedro Martinez’s 10.1 WAR season in 2000, a season often considered to be the most impressive by any pitcher ever considering the hitting environment in which it was pitched.

Greinke posted a FIP of 2.33 and an ERA of 2.16 on a Royals team that played pretty bad defense. He won 16 games while losing only eight and led the league in strikeouts. So while the league eschewed three wins for each of Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Sabathia, they didn’t completely diverge from accumulation statistics or conventional metrics.

The reality is that while once again Felix has been impressive, even more impressive than his amazing 2009 season, he still falls to second-best in terms of peripheral statistics, especially when combined with conventional measures.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs wrote about the guy that should truly win, Francisco Liriano.

Liriano is 14-7 with a 3.28 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 178.1 innings. While Felix tops all of those numbers in terms of total count, Liriano has the King beat in most rate stats. Liriano has more strikeouts per nine innings pitched, a lower FIP, a higher ground-ball rate, and has given up only four home runs this season, good for 0.20 per nine innings.

Most impressively, however, is that Liriano has managed to accumulate 6.3 WAR in about 55 fewer innings than it has taken Hernandez to accumulate 6.1. Liriano has four less starts and is averaging close to an inning less per start, but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been significantly more effective.

That’s not to take away from Hernandez, who has had yet another tremendous year, but if he’s given the Cy Young Award, it will truly be a multi-year award, as once again Felix has been the second-best pitcher in the American League by most contemporary measures, as well as the most traditional.

As much as Sabathia’s 20 wins (and counting) will help his case with the most dusty, closed-minded voters, Liriano may be hurt by not reaching a similar plateau. David Cone is the only starting pitcher to win the American League Cy Young Award without pitching at least 200 innings, which he did in the strike-shortened 1994 season.

The lowest inning count for a full-season starting pitcher American League Cy Young Award winner was 213.1, done by Pedro Martinez in 1999. He also won the award with 217 innings in 2000. Each of those seasons he won the award unanimously after posting two of the best modern-era pitching seasons ever.

ZiPS projects that Liriano will receive two more starts (and a relief appearance) before the end of the season for only 15 innings. That would put him at 193 innings for the season, a full 20 innings behind Pedro Martinez’s 1999 mark.

But while a low inning count may hurt Liriano, it seems like a much easier argument to make. While several closers have won the award, there have been a couple of National League winners to win the award, even pre-sabermetrics, without 200 innings or a recorded save.

In 1981, another strike-shortened season, Fernando Valenzuela won the Cy Young Award with 192.1 innings pitched in a season where the Dodgers played only 110 games.

1984 may be the best argument, however, for Liriano’s candidacy in 2010. In a full season, Rick Sutcliffe pitched only 20 games for 150.1 innings. He won the award unanimously but also boasted a 16-1 record. Sutcliffe benefitted from an ERA before advanced statistical analysis, as his 10th-place ranking in WAR that season (3.7 WAR) would hardly fly in 2010.

Either way, the reality is that Sabathia will probably win, but if he doesn’t, Liriano should be the guy, as he better fulfills the combined criteria of both traditional and contemporary metrics.

 

Check out more articles about Seattle sports at North and South of Royal Brougham.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners: Willy Aybar

The Mariners need a utility infielder that can play both second and third base, and at a minimal price. Dustin Ackley will likely make his debut in mid-June in order to avoid becoming a Super Two player, and until then, somebody will have to hold his place at second base.

Earlier in the week, we looked at Felipe Lopez. Lopez has been an average hitter for his career, playing second and third base to combine with his average defense. As a bonus, he’s a career league average hitter who can play shortstop, even if not very well.

Willy Aybar is a bit different. While Lopez has no real elite offensive skill or potential, Aybar’s career has been littered with rumors of potential. Potential that has unfulfilled.

The biggest problem facing the Mariners’ chances of acquiring Aybar? He’s not scheduled for free agency for two more seasons. Also, Aybar plays for the Tampa Bay Rays, who aren’t known for trading their pre-free agency players very often.

So how could the Mariners get their hands on Aybar?

MLB Trade Rumors recently profiled Aybar as a non-tender candidate. The reason isn’t solely based on Aybar’s performance, or a decreased glimmer on his potential star, but rather that in what seems like a perpetual state, the Rays are looking to cut costs going into the 2011 season.

If the Rays decline the $2.2 million option that Aybar has going into next season, coming off of a two-year contract Aybar signed going into the 2009 season as to avoid arbitration, they stand to save $1.925 million when combined with a $275,000 bonus.

The Rays also have several players: Ben Zobrist, Reid Brignac, Jason Bartlett, and Sean Rodriguez, who can play multiple positions in the infield who are either on guaranteed contracts or still in their pre-arbitration years and may be able to produce both in the field and at the plate at a higher level than Aybar.

So while Tampa Bay retaining Aybar would likely make this article moot, there’s a reasonable chance that the Mariners will have a shot at Aybar at a low price tag, and one that includes no exchanging prospects.

But what does Aybar offer the Mariners?

A lot like Felipe Lopez, Aybar’s career has produced league-average production at the plate. He is a switch hitter, who like Lopez, has performed better from the right-handed batter’s box than the left.

Perhaps the only downside of Aybar’s prospects in Seattle compared to Lopez is that Aybar has played most of his career at third base. While he’s played upwards of 300 plus innings at both second and first base, those are hardly large enough sample sizes to make a judgement on his defense.

However, if the team opts to keep Chone Figgins at second base, at least until Ackley is called up, Aybar offers an interestingly high upside bat at third base, while his -1.6 UZR/150 at third isn’t a huge deviation from the solid defense that Jose Lopez has played this year.

So why would Tampa Bay cut loose a guy with the potential to contribute in 2011?

Like all non-tender candidates, Aybar has some issues. After entering the majors as a guy who made a lot of contact and didn’t swing at a ton of pitches outside the strike zone, Aybar has begun to regress.

With three straight years of increased strikeout rates, including a career high 23.4 percent so far in 2010, Aybar has seen his wRC+ at 96, 100, and 85 in the past three respective seasons. While an 85 wRC+ falls well ahead of Jose Lopez 65 wRC+ for 2010, it also ranks ahead of Lopez career wRC+ (84).

So at Aybar’s absolute worst, he equals Jose Lopez’s career average.

But Lopez has—however misguidedly—received over 3,500 plate appearances in the majors. By contrast, Aybar will have less than 1,500 when the 2010 season ends.

It’s basically impossible to quantify a player’s “rhythm” in a given season. When players are or aren’t receiving consistent playing time, the sample sets are so small typically on one side that it is hard to make an accurate comparison to the other.

However, here’s a breakdown of how Aybar performs when facing starting pitchers multiple times in one game.

No. 1—.628 OPS

No. 2—.736 OPS

No. 3—.894 OPS

And in his first appearance against relief pitchers, he’s posted a .754 OPS.

How that translates into a full season’s work, since Aybar has never seen one, is hard to project. However, the chances are the price will be right if Aybar is made available to the Mariners.

Following the 2008 season, the Houston Astros non-tendered Ty Wigginton. Wigginton signed a two-year, $6 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles. That would be a really ugly contract for the Mariners to sign Aybar to, but Wigginton was a much better free agent.

He’d posted a 129 wRC+ in the year before being non-tendered, and that was the fourth straight season he’d posted a wRC+ over 100, while playing first base, second base, third base, and both corner outfield positions.

Kelly Johnson was non-tendered after posting an 86 wRC+ and playing a league-average second base. Johnson signed a one year, $2.35 million deal with the Diamondbacks. But Johnson had been worth 5.9 wins in the two seasons prior to his ugly 2009.

A wrist injury had appeared to sap his power, but he’d produced well in about 1,900 plate appearances in the bigs.

Perhaps the best example that parallels Aybar’s scenario is his one-time teammate Jonny Gomes. Gomes was once the owner of a shiny 2.5 WAR season in 407 plate appearances with the 2005 Rays.

He’d struggled to return to that mark, and after a season where he posted an 83 wRC+ in 2008, he was non-tendered by the club after less than 1,500 plate appearances. He’d go on to sign a minor league contract with the Cincinnati Reds.

That season, 2009, he’d post a 126 wRC+ and 10.2 RAR in only 314 plate appearances. His advanced stats were good, but his 20 home runs and .274 ISO in such a short time should have been attractive to many ballclubs.

Instead, Gomes would sign a contract work $800,000 with a favorable $1.75 million club option for 2011.

It’s impossible to tell how Aybar would react to his first season with over 400 plate appearances. However, if the price is right and Aybar is successful, he could be Jack Zduriencik’s 2011 version of Russell Branyan.

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Chone Figgins

Dustin Ackley

Felipe Lopez

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners: Felipe Lopez

In the past two entries in an attempt to repair a broken team, we looked at Chone Figgins and Dustin Ackley. The two make up a reasonably probable combination of second and third basemen for much of next season.

However, if the Mariners attempt to avoid paying Ackley another arbitration year, they’ll need someone to hold his place until he is ultimately called to the big club, likely in mid-June.

The problem is that with limited budget space, the Mariners will have to find a guy who can competently play both second and third base, and won’t embarrass the club at the plate. But what the last two offseasons have shown is that players with league average bats, and average-below average defense at multiple positions simply aren’t as marketable as they once were.

Felipe Lopez is one of those guys. After a 2008 season where he lost an arbitration case that gave him a $4.9 million salary, and Lopez coming of a 0.9 WAR season in 2008, Lopez signed a $3.5 million deal to play for Arizona for a year. He’d flourish in Arizona, and later Milwaukee after being traded in July, en route to a 3.9 WAR season.

According to Fangraphs, in 2009 Lopez was worth $17.5 million. He wouldn’t receive close to that in the offseason.

Also, in the face of a recession, teams have been less willing to sign Type A free agents. Teams don’t want to exchange a draft pick for a player who won’t make major contributions, or in the case of many utility players, won’t have a truly defined role on the team.

Having a league average bat that can be plugged into multiple positions holds some value with clubs, but that value appears to be trending down. Lopez was one of many who have been victimized by the recent emphasis on avoiding marginal Type A free agents.

It appears that won’t be the case for Lopez going into the 2010 offseason, as his 2010 performance appears to have dropped him to Type B status, which means that his signing team will not have to give up a draft pick, and that the team he comes from (St. Louis Cardinals) will be awarded a compensatory round pick.

The major downside, obviously, of sliding down to Type B status, is that it comes at the hands of a poor 2010 performance. So while teams may be more willing to discuss bringing Lopez in, the chances of him receiving a large raise on his $1 million 2010 salary are not very good.

So how can Lopez help the Mariners?

Well apart from a wRC+ of 96 for his career, Lopez has 5156 innings at shortstop, 2636.1 innings at second base, and 1231 innings at third base for his career. According to UZR, his defense gets closer to league average respectively. He’s a -10.8 UZR/150 for his career at short, -1.3 at second, and 3.4 at third. In terms of WAR, Lopez is only 1.9 behind Jack Wilson for his career, while amassing over 300 less plate appearances, though both of their careers began in 2010.

Utility is great, but there is a reason why teams have shied away from signing utility men to big dollars: because while they may act as insurance, limiting the deductible on the premium has become more important.

That stated, in the case of the Mariners, where Lopez’s successor is waiting in Tacoma, the same guy that plays second base for the first two months of the season will need to have a function on the roster after Ackley is brought up.

An interesting fact about Lopez, and a surprising amount of the league’s switch hitters, is that he actually hits better from the right side than the left. Logic would dictate that player who hits better right handed would be a poor switch hitter, as he’d see a disproportionate majority of right-handed pitchers, and thus deviate from his strong side of the plate on most at bats.

But since Ackley is left-handed and has performed poorly against lefties so far in the minors, Lopez could become a viable platoon partner. Also, while his defense is far from stellar at shortstop, he’d be an offensive upgrade over both Jack and Josh Wilson against even right-handed pitchers. Lopez’s 76 wRC+ tops Jack’s 64, and Josh’s 72.

However, Lopez’s ugly 2010 can’t go unanalyzed. Is Lopez really as bad as his 2010 season?

It’d be easy to look at Lopez’s career .316 BABIP, and his 2010 BABIP of .272, and dismiss 2010 as bad luck. Lopez had long been a guy with a ton of physical tools, but one who rarely put them all together for a full season.

But in most seasons, Lopez has done some things really well. That hasn’t been the case in 2010.

It’s interesting to examine Lopez’s peripheral stats from 2005, a year when he hit 23 home runs for Cincinnati, compared to his 2010 stats. Lopez line drive percentage in 2010 is 18 percent, the lowest output of his career, though his numbers have remained pretty steady between 19 and 20 percent for most of his career. 2005 however, was a season where Lopez hit a career-high 53.2 percent ground balls.

Why would a season where Lopez hit so many groundballs also yield his highest home run total?

Well, despite hitting a lower percentage of fly balls than he has in any other year, Lopez boasted an eye-popping 18.3 HR/FB percentage. It would be really easy to again dismiss the deviation in production as luck, as Lopez hasn’t topped 10.1 percent in any season apart from 2001, when he hit only 63 fly balls. However, one must wonder how much playing in Cincinnati helped Lopez that season.

According to Baseball Reference, Great American Ballpark had a park factor of 103 that season (anything over 100 favors hitters), while Busch Stadium III boasts a 98 park factor this year. However, the environment was different that year, as homeruns have decreased by about seven percent since then.

So in a hitter’s park and a more friendly home run environment (ahem, the tail end of the steroid era), Lopez hit more home runs.

But last year, fueled by an inflated BABIP, Lopez managed to produce in Arizona (110 park factor) and Milwaukee (95 park factor). So what gives?

Well, Lopez’s already inflated .348 BABIP in Arizona rose to .372 in Milwaukee.

So while his 86 wRC+ in 2010 comes in part as a result of bad luck, his great 2009 shouldn’t receive a disproportionate amount of credibility, as his luck was incredibly good that season.

Either way, if Lopez is willing to take a one year deal, or even a minor league deal with the opportunity to start for two months and play considerable time afterwards, he’d be a good fit for Seattle’s needs.

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Chone Figgins

Dustin Ackley

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley

Perhaps the biggest storyline in the 2011 offseason for Mariners‘ fans will be the development, and potential big league assignment of Dustin Ackley. The second-overall pick in the 2009 draft has transitioned to second base, and after what seemed to be a lackluster destiny for Ackley in the outfield—likely a corner position with Franklin Gutierrez around—has turned into one where Ackley has a reasonably probability of out producing most players at his position at the plate.

Even the most glowing scouting reports haven’t claimed that Ackley is a finished product in the field, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be able to handle the position at the highest level. Errors are an incomplete measure of a player’s defensive ability, especially while learning a new position, but Ackley made only 18 in 510 chances in his first year in the minors, and his first year at second base.

Perhaps the best that fans can hope for is an average fielder. However, where the true potential lies for Ackley is at the plate.

Noted as a player with a good eye, Ackley started the year off in AA walking more often than he struck out, and walked in 15.7 percent of his plate appearances. His total AA slash line (.263/.389/.384) may not be cause for inspiration, but when his ugly start is factored in, and his respectable numbers in 237 AAA plate appearances, Ackley’s performed pretty well for most of the season.

 

Some people seem intent on projecting Ackley to hit for power. While it’s possible, the chances of Ackley developing true “power” are pretty slim. Hitting 20 home runs in the big leagues is a reasonably reachable plateau, but anything more would probably be more the result of luck, or come at the expense of his contact/walk skills. He’s probably simply not going to hit many balls over 400 feet, and even as a lefty in Seattle, low-moderate power typically goes pretty unrewarded on its own in the big leagues. That doesn’t mean however, that Ackley can’t develop into a pretty proficient doubles hitter.

Ackley’s developing stroke, combined with high-level foot speed, should allow him to put some balls into gaps, but also stretch some singles into doubles on occasion. He’s also hit eight triples this year, and while it’s hard to call anyone a “triples hitter,” Ackley’s got the kind of profile that could lead to him being close to the league lead in the category in the future.

So who is a reasonable comparison for Ackley in the bigs?

That seems like a simple question. However, it is one that is all-too-often answered with the name Chase Utley. Utley is a guy that averages close to 400 feet per home run, and hits a lot of them. Perhaps the comparison comes because Utley is not considered a wiz by some scouts defensively. UZR does like Utley’s defense however, putting him at 14 UZR/150 for his career. Ackley’s defensive potential probably peaks around league average. The reality is that Chase Utley does a lot of things that Ackley never will.

 

Perhaps a more realistic peak is Brian Roberts. That’s not to say that Roberts is any slouch however. While Utley posted three straight seasons from 2007-09 where he produced 7.6 WAR or better, over the same seasons, Roberts posted 4.7,4.8, and 3.9 WAR respectively. Roberts, whose career UZR/150 at second is 4.1, loses about a full WAR per year compared to Utley though.

In those three seasons at the plate, Utley produced 118 RAR, while Roberts produced 60.8 RAR. That comes out to about two wins per season difference.

Roberts however, produced his wins on the legs of 149 doubles, 14 triples, 37 home runs, 120 stolen bases, and a walk rate around 11.5 percent over that span.

Perhaps the next step down is Orlando Hudson. Hudson is a about a league average offensive player (104 wRC+) and prior to 2010, had posted four straight below average seasons at second base according to UZR. While scouting reports like Hudson’s defense a lot more than contemporary metrics, his offense/defense combination suits Ackley’s skill set. Despite middling defense and league average offensive skills (Hudson was actually a ways above league average in three of those four seasons) he posted 9.6 WAR from 2006-2009.

There is however, the possibility that Ackley is ultimately a circus in the field, and provides such little or negative value at second base defensively that he ultimately has to move back to the outfield. The Mariners would likely try to push that realization back until Franklin Gutierrez is no longer roaming center field, whether by performance, trade, or the end of his four year contract (2013). Ackley has limited value in a corner outfield position, as those positions are typically reserved for hitters that produce more power (and apart from first base, they’re hard to find at other positions).

 

In center field, Ackley’s defense is much less of a concern. Ackley played outfield in college, and his foot speed lends itself to rangy outfielders. Of course, a transition to the outfield likely pushes Ackley’s debut season back, but if he does find himself there, Brett Gardner may be the best comparison available.

It’s crazy to think that Gardner was once offered to the Mariners in exchange for Jarrod Washburn. It’s especially crazy to think that it was before the arrival of Jack Zduriencik, and ultimately Franklin Gutierrez. Of all the ugly signings and trades that Bill Bavasi made, the non-trade of Jarrod Washburn may ultimately be his greatest misstep.

Like Ackley, Gardner was always projected as a guy who made a lot of contact, knew the strike zone, and wouldn’t ever hit for much power. His career .097 ISO agrees with the assessment of lacking power, however, even the staunchest Moneyball loyalist couldn’t have predicted Gardner would walk 14 percent of his 2010 plate appearances, and steal 40 bases at a success rate over 80 percent. Ackley possesses all of the strengths that Gardner does, with potential to hit for power.

So with three meaningless possibilities analyzed, and one meaningless, irresponsible projection removed, the question becomes: When will Dustin Ackley become a Seattle Mariner full time?

That’s up for debate. If the Mariners non-tender Jose Lopez they’ll have a hole at either second or third base. If Chone Figgins moves to third base, the Mariners options probably consist of: an inexpensive free agent, Josh Wilson, or Ackley at second base. The list off already-contributing free agent second baseman pretty much begins and ends with Orlando Hudson. Hudson signed a one-year contract for $5 million with the Twins this year. He’ll likely command more this offseason.

While simple logic points to trying Ackley there from the beginning of the season, as Wilson is a known commodity, and a below-average offensive player, Ackley may fall victim to the league-wide attempt to avoid making top prospects Super Two players. Hanging on to another year of team control at a discount rate, as Ackley would only go to arbitration three times instead of four, is likely in the Mariners plans. But chances are, his place holder will be somebody who comes with some extending time producing at a rate below Ackley’s potential.

All signs point to Ackley receiving significant playing time in 2011, but the chance of him being called up to the big club before mid-June seems pretty small at this point. 

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Chone Figgins

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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