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15 Offseason MLB Moves Most Likely to Backfire

The clock is ticking on the Masahiro Tanaka derby, meaning we’re likely near another wave of big free-agent signings just in time for pitchers and catchers to report for spring training. Hard to imagine, but in about a month, the familiar sounds of rawhide smacking the leather in the bullpen will return to Arizona and Florida.

It’s clear that baseball contracts are rising after a year when the league pulled in a record $8 billion in revenue in 2013, according to Maury Brown of Forbes. New national and local TV deals are also kicking in around the league, meaning players are reaping the benefits at the negotiating table.

With such big contracts come big risks, and there certainly have been some moves made this offseason that look poised for failure. Here’s a look at 15 signings and/or trades executed this winter that are most likely to backfire on their respective clubs.

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Ranking 5 Available MLB Players with the Most Overall Trade Value

The Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler trade kicked down the door on the MLB offseason, but there hasn’t been another blockbuster deal since.

That could change in the near future, though, and maybe Masahiro Tanaka is to blame for the holdup.

It seems like all of the available marquee players in free agency or on the trading block are being affected by Tanaka‘s drawn-out bidding process that figures to involve several teams in a high-priced auction. Expect the other dominoes to fall once the righty finds a new home, meaning we should have some more offseason action to keep us busy until spring training.

There have been several high-profile pitchers and sluggers mentioned in trade rumors this winter, so let’s take a look at the top five players available, in terms of trade value.

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MLB’s Top Free Agents, Trade Targets Still Available at Every Position

Now that the calendar reads January, we’re closer to the start of 2014 spring training than we are to the final out of the 2013 World Series.

As such, a select few of baseball’s top free agents are still playing the waiting game as they look for work for the new season. Likewise, many well-known players are still on the trading block following a winter rampant with rumors.

But there are still a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Arizona and Florida to make moves. The market might be thinning now, but there are still some quality players available for the right price. Here’s an updated look at the top free-agent or trade targets in baseball, broken down by position.

 

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.

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Handing Out MLB Offseason Awards Heading into 2014

It’s time for Auld Lang Syne and the bubbly as we ring in 2014.

That also means the MLB hot stove is set to heat back up after the holiday lull that followed a frenzied December. With bidding open for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka, the entire offseason market is finally set and the remaining marquee pitchers figure to sign deals in the near future.

But that doesn’t mean we have a good idea of who has improved and which team has failed to address their roster needs so far this offseason. The new year means pitchers and catchers report for spring training in about six weeks, so let’s hand out some year-end awards for the MLB offseason thus far.

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MLB Rumors: Latest Buzz on Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez and Johan Santana

The MLB offseason will jump back into the swing of things once the calendar flips to 2014. For now, the rumor mill has slowed down during the holidays, serving as a lull between a wild December and a January that also figures to feature plenty of high-profile moves.

In recent days, rumblings regarding some of the top free agents on the market like Stephen Drew and Ubaldo Jimenez have circulated, while Johan Santana’s comeback attempt is a full-go. Here’s a look at the latest rumors with these trio of players.

 

Stephen Drew, SS

The New York Mets have long been viewed as a logical landing spot for Drew this offseason. The free-agent shortstop is still looking for work weeks after Jhonny Peralta, the other top available player at the position, signed a four-year, $53 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.

While Drew comes with injury concerns after missing a combined 197 contests in the past three seasons, he provides a lot of pop to a premium defensive position. The Mets could use some more firepower in their lineup after last year’s starting shortstop, Ruben Tejada, batted .202/.259/.260 with no homers and 10 RBI in 57 games while dealing with injuries and a lengthy demotion to Triple-A.

According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets are leaning toward Tejada to be their everyday shortstop in 2014. But Carig also notes that the team is staying in contact with Drew’s agent, Scott Boras, leaving the door open for a possible free-agent agreement.

The Mets remain in contact with Scott Boras, the agent for shortstop Stephen Drew, according to a person with knowledge of the talks. But the source likened the situation to the Mets’ pursuit of outfielder Michael Bourn late last winter. Bourn ultimately landed with the Indians, but not before the Mets made a serious run at signing him, mostly because he had lowered his asking price as the season drew near.

It sounds like New York is playing a waiting game and hoping that Drew’s contract requests will become more palatable. 

While recent comments from Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi to WEEI 93.7FM also suggest the team is content with watching Tejada develop, keep an eye on Drew and the Mets as possible partners.

 

Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP

The market for marquee starting pitchers has been slow to develop this offseason as teams awaited the fate of Japanese righty Masahiro Tanaka, who was officially posted for MLB bidding by the Rakuten Golden Eagles on Dec. 26.

Expect the rumors on guys like Tanaka, Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana to pick up in the coming weeks as the top right-handers available engage in negotiations. In a wide-ranging notebook, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe recently reported that multiple general managers told him the New York Yankees seem like a logical landing spot for Jimenez.

A few GMs I spoke with recently feel the Yankees may wind up with Jimenez, even if they land Masahiro Tanaka. “He had an excellent second half, has great stuff, and he has the type of personality that would fit New York,” one GM said. “He doesn’t let things get to him. He’s good at shrugging off things and turning the page.”

On the surface, it certainly makes sense. The Yankees need some rotation help behind CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, and they have made a habit of signing big-name free agents.

While Jimenez has been largely inconsistent since his banner year in 2010, he wrapped up the second half of 2013 strong (6-5, 1.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .223 opponents’ average and 10.7 K/9). Jimenez has arguably the biggest upside of any MLB-proven pitcher available and would be a nice addition to the rotation in the Bronx.

 

Johan Santana, LHP

Johan Santana is set to turn 35 years old during spring training and hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since 2012, but that hasn’t stopped teams from kicking the tires on the two-time Cy Young winner.

Per Darren Wolfson of ESPN1500 in Minneapolis, the former Minnesota Twins great has generated interest this offseason:

Cafardo also weighed in on the Santana situation recently, pointing to the Twins as a logical destination.

Santana is getting closer to making a decision on a minor league deal with a team. There’s been some speculation about the Twins since Santana still resides in Fort Myers, Fla., where the Twins have spring training. The Red Sox, who also train in Fort Myers, passed. But a small-market team such as the Astros could also have some interest. Santana is just trying to get back pitching and prove himself again.

The Twins have been very aggressive in trying to shore up their dismal starting rotation from 2013 that didn’t feature a single 10-game winner. The club has already signed Ricky Nolasco (four years, $48 million), Phil Hughes (three years, $24 million) and Mike Pelfrey (two years, $11 million) to respective deals this offseason, and Santana represents another low-risk option.

According to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Santana is expected to try out for teams in the near future:

Santana has dealt with major injuries in recent years that completely wiped out his 2011 and 2013 seasons, but his sterling career numbers (139-78, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 ratio) is enough to warrant a look in spring training.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Rumors: Latest Buzz for Pitchers on Comeback Trail

The MLB rumor mill tends to slow around the holiday season, but as Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors noted, sometimes baseball executives and agents are fiddling on their phones during family functions while discussing possible deals.

At this point of the offseason, most of the marquee players are off the board. Along with the big names, there have also been a series of signings of pitchers recovering from injuries, as right-handers like Colby Lewis and Daniel Hudson have already inked deals to stay with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, respectively.

There are a few other prime candidates, who are on the comeback trail, that looked poised for new deals. Here’s the latest on two setup men with solid track records but are rebounding from major injuries.

 

Jesse Crain, RHP

Even though he missed out on the final three months of the 2013-14 season due to a shoulder injury, Jesse Crain has been a hot name on the MLB hot stove lately.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago recently added to the Crain rumor mill when he reported that the Chicago Cubs are doing some background work on the right-handed reliever:

Before he went down in late June, Crain had established himself as one of the game’s most effective setup men, posting a 0.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 ratio in 38 appearances for the Chicago White Sox.

Even though he was on the 15-day disabled list with his shoulder ailment, that didn’t stop the Tampa Bay Rays from acquiring him near the non-waiver trade deadline. Crain got as far as throwing a simulated game in Tampa Bay, but he never put on a Rays uniform in competition.

As of last week, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that Crain was deciding between whether to sign a one-year deal or two-year deal, indicating there is indeed a market for his services.

The Cubs would likely be looking at Crain as an eighth-inning option, since they recently signed Jose Veras and he’s expected to take over the closer’s role vacated by free agent Kevin Gregg. If the Cubs were to sign Crain, it makes sense to not throw him right into the fire, while he could also serve as insurance if Veras doesn’t work out in the ninth inning. Chicago’s bullpen showed up on the wrong end of too many highlights last year as it blew 26 saves, second-most in the league.

It’s concerning that Crain was sidelined for half of the season last year, but his potential is undeniable. From 2010-12, Crain made 189 appearances and posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.5 K/9, suggesting that last year’s success wasn’t a fluke. Crain comes with questions, but he would likely bring some consistency to Chicago, which ranked 25th with a 4.04 bullpen ERA in 2013.

 

Ryan Madson, RHP

The Philadelphia Phillies are interested in a reunion with Ryan Madson, according to sources of CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. During a recent mailbag with fans, Salisbury was asked if the Phillies have Madson on their radar:

Yes, sources tell me they do. In fact, I hear that Madson has some interest in rejoining the Phillies, as well. Obviously, he has missed the last two seasons with elbow problems, but at 33 he might be an excellent low-risk, potential high-reward signing.

From 2007-11, Madson was an integral part to the Philadelphia bullpen during the heyday of this current, aging core of players. But he hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch in two seasons, and Salisbury speculates it should only take a minor-league deal to sign Madson this offseason.

During that five-year stretch in the Phillies’ relief corps, Madson posted a 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 ratio. Madson declined salary arbitration following the 2011-12 season to test free agency, but he’s been hampered by arm problems ever since.

Madson signed a one-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds before the 2012-13 season, only to have his season wiped out by Tommy John surgery in spring training. The Los Angeles Angels were convinced he was ready for a comeback when they signed him to a deal last offseason, but his problems persisted and he was released after making just one minor league appearance in May.

Teams might be scared off from Madson at this point and understandably so. But if the 33-year-old can be signed to a low-risk minor league deal with a spring training invite, it’s worth a roll of the dice.

At worst, Madson isn’t the same pitcher he used to be, and he doesn’t break camp with the big league club. At best, he would recapture his form as a solid reliever, although it’s a bit unreasonable to expect him to replicate his pre-injury success.

Madson and the Phillies left on mutual terms following 2011 after the team made a big commitment to current closer Jonathan Papelbon. He won’t be a closer in 2014, but Madson could still be a valuable setup man for a team that finished with a 4.19 bullpen ERA in 2013, which ranked 27th in MLB.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Playing ‘Contender or Pretender’ with MLB’s Most Active Offseason Teams

The heavy lifting of the MLB offseason is done, with just a few marquee names still available on the free-agent market.

While the trading block can always shake things up, most of the groundwork for the 2014 season has been laid. It’s certainly been a busy one, with Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reporting the league is on pace to spend more than $2 billion this winter.

Big-time players have also swapped jerseys since the World Series ended, creating a new, exciting landscape for baseball. Here’s a look at the contenders and pretenders of baseball’s most active offseason teams so far heading into 2014.

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MLB Rumors: Updates on Jimmy Rollins, Jesse Crain and Mark Reynolds

The MLB rumor mill is still kicking as we head toward 2014.

Both the free-agent and trade markets still figure to be busy until the holidays and will pick back up again in January as teams try to round out their rosters for spring training.

Recently, names like shortstop Jimmy Rollins have popped up on the trading block, while there have been new rumblings regarding free agents like reliever Jesse Crain and infielder Mark Reynolds. Let’s take a look at the latest rumors regarding these three players.

 

Jimmy Rollins, SS

It sounds like Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is trying hard to shed some salary this offseason.

Last week, closer Jonathan Papelbon surfaced in trade rumors, while this week it’s Rollins. On Monday, Buster Olney of ESPN reported that the Phillies are actively shopping the 35-year-old former MVP:

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Rollins is due $11 million this season and has a vesting option for 2015. Olney shared the benchmark Rollins needs to meet in order to guarantee his option:

While Papelbon is owed up to $39 million over the next three years, a maximum of $22 million for two years of Rollins makes him more affordable. But after his major drop in power in 2013, Rollins might be a hard chip to trade at this point.

In 160 games this past season, Rollins batted .252/.318/.348 with six homers, 39 RBIs and 22 stolen bases, the .348 slugging percentage representing the lowest mark of his career.

Stephen Drew is still a free agent, and the market drops off sharply after him, but there are very few teams that need shortstops at this point in the offseason. Rollins bounced back from a similar dip in production in 2003 (.263/.320/.387, eight HRs, 62 RBIs, 20 stolen bases), but he’s 10 years older now and teams might be scared off by his big salary. 

Amaro might be eager to trade away one of the many high-priced veterans on his roster, but it looks like it’s going to be tough to unload one of those big contracts.

 

Jesse Crain, RHP

Jesse Crain was one of baseball’s best relievers when he went down with a right-shoulder injury in June. Even though he was on the disabled list, that didn’t stop the Tampa Bay Rays from acquiring him from the Chicago White Sox near the trading deadline.

Crain never pitched for the Rays, but now he’s on the open market. According to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the interest for Crain has picked up lately.

Relief pitching is one area of the free-agent market where there are still plenty of quality options available, and Crain is one of them. He made 38 appearances in 2013, posting a 0.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 ratio. In the previous two seasons with the White Sox, he had a combined 2.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 in 118 outings.

While his season-ending injury is concerning, Crain showed he can be an elite setup man in the first half of last year, a valuable part of any bullpen. Given his recent injury, the 32-year-old Crain is likely in line for a short-term deal, per Morosi:

At this point, there are dozens of teams who want to bolster their bullpen so Crain should have plenty of offers to choose from this winter.

 

Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B

The slugging corner infielder still possesses some power, but it comes at the price of strikeouts. The pros and cons of Mark Reynolds’ game are well known at this point, and the 30-year-old is arguably the top third baseman on the market now with Juan Uribe’s two-year deal to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Over the past three seasons, Reynolds has also played a lot at first base, a logical move at this point of his career. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the New York Yankees have expressed interest in bringing Reynolds back in 2014:

The Yankees signed Reynolds in August after he was designated for assignment by the Cleveland Indians a week earlier. In 135 games this past season, he batted .220/.306./.393 with 21 HRs, 67 RBIs and 154 strikeouts.

New York could use a right-handed power bat and someone to spell Mark Teixeira at first base, so a move to bring Reynolds back makes sense for both sides. With Alex Rodriguez‘s status up in the air for 2014, Reynolds could also provide some third-base insurance.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Under-the-Radar Impact Free Agents Still Available at Every Position

There are still diamonds in the rough to be found on the free-agent market in MLB.

A few big names in their primes are surrounded by a host of inconsistent veterans in the available talent pool, but this is still a crucial part of the offseason even with most of the marquee players off the table. There are only a few days left until the holidays, so expect a small flurry of action in the near future.

Here’s a position-by-position look at under-the-radar players, international and domestic, who could still have big impacts on their teams in 2014 and beyond.

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Re-Ranking the Top MLB Free Agents Still Available at Every Position

For some position groups on the MLB free-agent market, it’s down to slim pickings following the torrid pace of the offseason action so far. For other spots on the diamond, there are still several marquee players available after the ho-hum winter meetings wrapped up earlier this week.

At this point of the offseason, many teams have started to focus on filling their benches with low-cost veterans. With stars like Robinson Cano, Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury off the open market, new names have emerged as the top players at their respective positions.

There are only about two months left before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so let’s take an updated look at the top three players from each position.

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